Archive for Geovany Soto

Geovany Soto is struggling and he doesn’t know why. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year has scraped together a measly .212/.318/.371 line and is now losing playing time to his illustrious backup, Koyie Hill. Lining up this season’s stats to his ROY campaign, I can see why he’s baffled.

First let’s take a look at his batted ball types.

(Blue is fly balls)

Uh-huh. No major changes, really. He’s hitting just a few more fly balls, but less are leaving the yard – down to 10.2% compared to 14.7% last year. That says something about why his power production is down, but it doesn’t explain why his batting average is hanging around the Mendoza line. Consider also his plate discipline numbers. Soto’s walks are up and his strikeouts are slightly down. He’s swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone – 20.1% last year, down to 18.1% this season – and he is making more contact when he does swing –74.7% last year, 77.4% this year. So he’s being more selective and making more contact when he does pull the trigger. It’s just as if he is almost always hitting the ball right at someone.

Soto has had some issues with his shoulder and oblique this year, which could be the culprit at least in part, but listening to Soto talk, he doesn’t seem to think that’s the case. Soto seems to attribute his woes to good old fashioned bad luck, and I’m not quite sure I can blame him.

Playing around with THT’s xBABIP calculator, Soto’s expected BABIP is .314. His actual BABIP: .245. Last year Soto was playing a bit over his head. This year he appears to be suffering some sort of horrid luck that Billy Sianis wouldn’t wish upon his worst enemy.

There may be more to it than luck, of course. Feel free to fill me in, someone.

Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the National League Central division. Of the six teams in the division, no club relied on young players in 2008 more than the Cincinnati Reds – both in the field and on the mound.

In the past few days, we have looked at the: AL Central, AL West, AL East.

In any other year, Joey Votto would have had a legitimate shot at the Rookie of the Year award in the National League. Last season, the first baseman hit .297/.368/.506 with 24 homers and 84 RBI in 526 at-bats. He also posted a walk rate of 10.1% and a strikeout rate of 19.4%. This season, Votto has dealt with some medical concerns, but he’s still hitting a robust .357/.464/.627 with eight homers and 33 RBI in 126 at-bats. His strikeout rate is virtually the same, but the 25-year-old Canadian has increased his walk rate by almost five percent.

It’s funny how baseball works. Outfielder Jay Bruce was the most highly-anticipated rookie of the year at the beginning of 2008, but his rookie season ended up being pretty average. Now 22, Bruce spent the first 48 games of the season in triple-A before his promotion. In the Majors, he hit .254/.314/.453 with 21 homers in 413 at-bats. He also had a walk rate of 7.4% and a strikeout rate of 26.6%. This season, he’s hitting just .217/.306/.469 with 16 homers in 226. On the positive side, his walk rate has increased by three percent and the strikeout rate is down four percent. After posting a .298 BABIP last season, Bruce’s BABIP is a ridiculously low .206. His line drive rate is down seven percent from the 21.1 LD% he had last season. Right now, he’s kind of looking like a cross between Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn, which isn’t really a good thing. At least he’s still very young.

The only bigger enigma in the Reds’ system is right-hander Homer Bailey. The 23-year-old pitcher has very good stuff, but consistency is not his strong suit. After a disappointing nine starts in 2007, Bailey returned to the Majors for part of 2008 and posted a 7.93 ERA with 59 hits in 36.1 innings. He posted a 4.21 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of just 4.46 K/9. This season, Bailey has made just one (poor) MLB start while spending the majority of his time in triple-A. He has a 2.83 ERA with 81 hits allowed in 82.2 innings. He has a walk rate of 2.72 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.06 K/9.

Johnny Cueto was mostly an unknown prospect prior to the 2008 season but he made a name for himself pretty quickly. Overall, the right-hander was 9-14 with a 4.81 ERA and he was inconsistent all season. However, he still struck out more than 150 batters (8.17 K/9) while keeping the walks to a modest number (3.52 BB/9). This season, the 23-year-old has been even better with a 2.17 ERA and 68 hits allowed in 87 innings. He’s decreased his walk rate by almost one full walk per nine innings, but his strikeout rate has also dropped. Cueto’s ground-ball rate is also up, though, and he’s becoming more of a pitcher and less of a thrower.

Milwaukee fans had been waiting for Manny Parra to “arrive” for quite a few seasons, but his MLB career was delayed by injuries in the minors. The left-hander’s rookie season in 2008 had promise, although he allowed far too many hits with 181 in just 166 innings of work. He also posted a walk rate of 4.07 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.97. This season, Parra completely fell apart before being demoted to triple-A. In the Majors, Parra posted a 7.52 ERA with 83 hits in 64.2 innings. His walk rate jumped to 5.71 BB/9.

Kyle McClellan, 25, was a key part of the Cardinals bullpen in 2008 despite an uninspired minor league career. The right-hander posted a 4.04 ERA with 79 hits allowed in 75.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 3.09 BB/9 and 7.02 K/9. This season, the reliever has a 3.45 ERA and has allowed just 23 hits in 31.1 innings. He has struggled with his walk rate at 4.88 BB/8 and his strikeout rate is 6.61 K/9.

J.R. Towles was one of the Astros’ better hitting prospects prior to the 2008 season but he struggled mightily in the Majors. The right-handed hitting catcher batted just .137/.250/.253 with a strikeout rate of 27.4 K%. He hit more than .300 after a demotion to triple-A. This season, Towles, 25, has appeared in just four MLB games and has a batting average of .182. He’s spent the Majority of the year in triple-A and has a triple-slash line of .281/.385/.461. With top prospect and catcher Jason Castro in double-A, Towles’ future is probably in another organization.

A Rule 5 pick-up from the Dodgers, Wesley Wright appeared in 71 games for the Astros in 2008. He posted an ERA of 5.01 and allowed 45 hits in 55.2 innings of work. He had a walk rate of 5.50 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.22 K/9. The southpaw held lefties to a .207 batting average and righties hit .220. This year, Wright struggled with a 7.24 ERA and allowed 23 hits in 13.2 innings. He was then demoted to triple-A.

Kosuke Fukudome had a red-hot first few months in the Majors and then fell off the face of the earth for the remainder of 2008. Overall, the Japanese rookie hit .257/.359/.279 with 10 homers and 12 stolen bases in 501 at-bats. Last year, he hit .279 in the first half of the year and just .217 in the second half. This year, he got off to another good start but has cooled as of late to an overall line of .266/.394/.429 with five homers and four steals. The 32-year-old outfielder does not have youth on his side.

The reigning Rookie of the Year in the NL, Geovany Soto had a great offensive season for the Cubs. He hit .285/.364/.504 with 23 homers and 86 RBI in 494 at-bats. The catcher also posted a walk rate of 11.2 BB% and a strikeout rate of 24.5 K%. This year has been a disaster as he’s hit just .217/.324/.311 with three homers in 161 at-bats. His rates are pretty much the same but his power has dried up. The Cubs really need his bat to wake up.

The Pirates received some help from outfielders Brandon Moss and Nyjer Morgan in 2008. Moss was acquired from Boston in the Jason Bay deal, while Morgan is a homegrown talent. Moss had a modest rookie year and hit just .246/.304/.436 with eight homers and one steal in 236 at-bats. His strikeout rate was high at 29.7 K%. It’s dropped almost 10 percent this season but the outfielder is still not hitting well with a line of .243/.293/.343 with one homer and no steals. Morgan, on the other hand, is exceeding expectations. The speedy outfielder had just nine steals in 14 attempts last year but he hit .294/.345/.375 in 160 at-bats. This season he has 16 steals in 23 attempts and is hitting .261/.338/.340. Morgan, 28, looks like a useful fourth outfielder.

The Graduate: Geovany Soto | Born: January 1983 | Catcher

It was pretty easy to pick the Cubs’ graduate for 2008, as Geovany Soto was the only rookie who had any significant impact on the team… with apologies to Jeff Samardzija. Soto played solid defence and provided above-average offence for his position, which likely won him the Rookie of the Year award. The stocky catcher slugged 35 doubles and 23 homers, while posting a .219 ISO. Although he struck out 121 times in 494 at-bats, he took a healthy 62 walks. The Cubs have to feel good about the future of the backstop position with Soto leading the way and some other interesting catchers filtered throughout the system… They just might want to pull back a bit on the 136 games he played behind the dish.

The Riser: Mitch Atkins | Born: October 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Mitch Atkins was a quiet seventh round selection out of a North Carolina high school in 2004. But he has made steady progress over the past five seasons and spent half the 2008 season in Triple-A. Atkins caught the eyes of some fans by winning 17 games on the season but he is likely to top out as a fourth starter at the Major League level. In 164.1 combined innings this past season, he allowed 155 hits. At Triple-A, he posted rates of 3.81 BB/9 and 7.29 K/9. He features a low-90s fastball, cutter, curveball and change-up.

The Tumbler: Tyler Colvin | Born: September 1985 | Outfielder

Tyler Colvin was a gutsy selection as the 13th overall pick of the 2006 draft. There weren’t many – if any – other teams that saw him as a potential first round option. Selected one pick right after Colvin, high school outfielder Travis Snider has already made his Major League debut and impressed. Yes, Colvin is athletic, but one major flaw keeps haunting him: His walk rate. Between 2006 and 2007, he walked just 32 times in more than 750 at-bats. He did improve that rate significantly (for him) in 2008 by walking 44 times in 540 at-bats (7.5%). Unfortunately, in his second go in Double-A, Colvin’s batting average took a big hit and dipped to .256 as he struggled to identify off-speed pitches. His slugging percentage has also been on a three-year decline. After playing center field for most of his career, Colvin split 2008 between center and left field.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Andrew Cashner | Born: September 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

One of the better college relievers available in the draft, Andrew Cashner had a brutal start to his pro career. He exhibited poor command and control while walking 23 batters in 20 innings over three minor league stops. He also allowed 24 hits and struck out 19 batters. Cashner was not a first-round option before the 2008 season so he really only has one year of above-average pitching and his command was also considered spotty at best. This could end up being a selection that the Cubs will regret… but it is also a very small sample size.

The ’09 Sleeper: Steve Clevenger | Born: April 1986 | Catcher

A converted infielder, Steve Clevenger has improved steadily behind the dish for the Cubs in the past two seasons. He nabbed 20 of 63 base runners attempting to steal against him in 2008 between High-A and Double-A, and also made just four errors. Offensively, Clevenger doesn’t walk a lot, but he doesn’t strike out much either… with 2008 rates of 11.6 BB% and 13.1 K%. He won’t hit a lot of home runs (.101 ISO), but he has the potential to hit .300.

Up Next: The Minnesota Twins