Archive for hank conger

Last month, not only did the Tampa Bay Rays cut Jose Molina, but, as Jeff detailed, no other Major League team was or has been interested in picking Molina up, even for the smallest of prices. As somebody who has always had their interests piqued by pitch-framing, this tiny morsel of a transaction nonetheless triggered a miniature existential crisis on the significance and value of pitch-framing. Have the estimates of framing value been, in fact, comically optimistic? Have savvier umpires begun to render this skill a moot point? Is there some other factor about the nature of the catcher position that we, on the outside, simply don’t know?

Some of those things may very well be true, maybe even all of them. But before we use the Rays dumping Molina as an example of the preacher turning pagan, let us consider yesterday’s big trade between the Rays, Nationals, and Padres. Somewhere amidst this flurry of new forwarding addresses, defensive-minded catcher Ryan Hanigan went from Tampa Bay to San Diego, while defensive-minded catcher Rene Rivera went from San Diego to Tampa Bay. The catcher swap was the minor part of the deal for the public, but perhaps the Rays don’t see it that way. In fact, if they still believe strongly in the value of catcher defense, perhaps the Rays didn’t even consider themselves as selling low on Wil Myers, given the potential value that Rivera might provide.

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General Manager: Tony Reagins
Farm Director: Abe Flores
Scouting Director: Eddie Bane

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

1. Hank Conger, C, Double-A
DOB: January 1988 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

After failing to appear in more than 84 games in his first three pro seasons, Conger showed some durability in ’09 and got into 124 contests. Overall, he hit .295/.369/.424 in 458 at-bats. His walk rate took a big jump last year when it rose from 4.4% in ’08 to 10.5%. His strikeout rate dropped from 18.7% to 14.8%. Although his plate rates improved, Conger saw his power diminish significantly with an ISO drop from .214 to .129 but he was playing in a power-dampening park. A switch-hitter, Conger swings a slightly-more-potent bat against right-handed pitching with an OPS of .836, compared to his .763 rate against southpaws. Defensively, he’s made strides behind the dish but he’s an average-at-best defender, which should be OK considering his offensive potential.

2. Jordan Walden, RHP, Double-A
DOB: November 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 12th round – Grayson County College
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Walden’s 5.25 ERA in ’09 was pretty ugly but he was hurt by a .377 BABIP and his FIP was just 3.77. Overall, he allowed 72 hits in 60.0 innings and made just 13 starts due to a forearm strain. The injury is worrisome (because it can lead to Tommy John surgery), but he appears healthy and ready to compete in 2010. He showed a pretty good strikeout rate in ’09 at 8.55 K/9 but his control was modest at 4.35 BB/9. He had a lot of troubles against left-handed hitters and posted a walk rate of 7.83 BB/9 against them in a smaller sample size. The right-hander has top-of-the-order stuff if he can harness it.

3. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Double-A
DOB: May 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 8th round – New Jersey HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Reckling cannot begin to compete with Walden’s pure stuff, but the southpaw is a better all-around pitcher even though his walk rate has risen each of the past few seasons, from 1.75 to 3.49 to 4.99. His strikeout rate took a bit of a dive in .09 but it wasn’t hopeless at 7.05 K/9. Reckling does a pretty good job of inducing ground balls (47.9%), which helped him allow just four homers in double-A (135.1 innings). His 3.77 FIP (2.93 ERA) suggests that he received some help in allowing just 118 hits (.293 BABIP). Reckling projects as a solid No. 3 starter.

4. Pete Bourjos, OF, Double-A
DOB: March 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 8th round – Arizona HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Like a lot of the Angels’ top prospects, Bourjos is more solid than flashy. The outfielder doesn’t have much power (.142 ISO in ’09) but he hits for a nice average (.281) and steals some bases (32 in 44 attempts at double-A). In fact, he has the potential to steal 40-50 bases in the Majors, if so motivated. Overall on the year, he hit .281/.354/.423 in 437 at-bats while playing part of the year with ligament tear in his wrist. His walk rate was good, but not great for a top-of-the-order hitter, at 9.7% and he struck out a bit much for his modest power results at 17.6%. Defensively, he is a plus outfielder and can easily handle center field.

5. Fabio Martinez, RHP, Rookie
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

The newest name on the club’s top prospect watch, Martinez has a big arm but he has just one North American season under his belt so 2010 will be big in helping him secure his reputation. The right-hander struck out 102 batters in 67.2 rookie-ball innings in ’09 but his control was off and he walked more than five batters per nine innings. His walk rate was just shy of 48% but he did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and allowed just three homers on the season. Batters hit just .195 against him and the 20 year old should move up to low-A for 2010.

6. Trevor Bell, RHP, Majors
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 supplemental 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

Trevor flew through double-A and triple-A in ’09 but he got his, uh, bell rung in the Majors. The right-hander allowed a 5.26 FIP in 20.1 MLB innings and his walk rate rose to 4.87 BB/9 as he nibbled against big leaguers. He did receive any luck, either, and posted a BABIP of .461. Beginning the year in double-A, Bell allowed just 54 hits in 68.2 innings of work while posting a walk rate of 2.62 BB/9. He also allowed just one homer and his ground-ball rate for the season was just shy of 50% in the minors. At triple-A, his strikeout rate dropped from 6.68 in double-A to 4.79 K/9. Because he has average stuff, Bell projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter or a middle reliever.

7. Mark Trumbo, 1B, Double-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 18th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

The 24-year-old Trumbo is loaded with raw power (as witnessed by his 32 homers in ’08) but he has yet to put it all together. The first baseman, who will reportedly see time in the outfield in 2010, hit .291/.333/.452 in 533 double-A at-bats. His walk rate has always been on the low side at it was 6.4% in ’09. His strikeout rate dipped nicely, though, to 18.8%. After posting his first .200+ ISO rate in ’08, his rate slipped to .161 in double-A while playing in a park that hurts power numbers. Even so, he still slugged 35 doubles. If Trumbo can add right field to his resume, it will significantly improve his value to the Angels.

8. Tyler Chatwood, RHP, Low-A
DOB: December 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

After posting a walk rate of 8.53 in his pro debut (38.0 innings), Chatwood made some improvements to lower his rate to 5.11 BB/9 but he’ll continue to work to harness his stuff in 2010. Despite his struggles finding the plate, the right-hander still posted a strikeout rate of 8.20 K/9 and he allowed just 99 hits in 116.1 innings of work. He also did a nice job of limiting the homer (0.23 HR/9) despite an average ground-ball rate. Chatwood has the potential to develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter, especially if he can find a little more success against left-handed hitters (1.62 WHIP).

9. Chris Pettit, OF, Majors
DOB: August 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 19th round – Loyola Marymount University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Pettit has always posted good numbers against southpaws in his career, but he absolutely creamed them in ’09 to the tune of a 1.117 OPS in 112 at-bats. Overall, he hit .321/.383/.482 in 371 triple-A at-bats and even received his first taste of the Majors (10 games). The outfielder isn’t a true center-fielder and doesn’t possess the power for the corners (.162 ISO) so he’s a bit of a tweener. As a result, he could end up in a platoon, or as a fourth outfielder. With a full-time commitment by the Angels, he could hit 10 homers with 15 steals.

10. Jon Bachanov, RHP, Rookie
DOB: January 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mis-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

It took the ’07 draft pick some time to get onto a mound, but he made up for lost time in ’09 after converting full-time to the bullpen. The right-hander has a good fastball-slider combination and he posted a strikeout rate or 14.00 K/9 in rookie ball. Already 21, Bachnov should jump to low-A ball in 2010 and could move quickly if he continues to show good control. He has the potential to be the Angels’ closer of the future but he’s a long way off.

Up Next: The Los Angeles Dodgers

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next week, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. On Monday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. On Tuesday, we had a gander at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster. Today, let’s view the Mesa Solar Sox roster.

The Mesa Solar Sox (Click HERE for the entire roster)
Minnesota, Chicago (NL), Los Angeles (AL), Florida, Boston

Andrew Cashner | RHP | Chicago
Drafted as a college reliever, Cashner has made a successful conversion to the starting rotation. He opened the 2009 season by allowing just 31 hits in 42 high-A innings. The right-hander then moved on to double-A where he’s had similar success, although his walk rate has risen from 3.21 to 4.56 BB/9.

Tommy Mendoza | RHP | Los Angeles
This right-hander had a breakout season at the low-A ball level in 2006 at the age of 19. The next two years, though, were a disappointment. Mendoza’s value has risen again in 2009, although the ceiling is a little more modest this time around. Still only 22, he profiles as a No. 3 or 4 starter.

Welington Castillo | C | Chicago
With Geovany Soto tanking with a capital ‘T’ there is suddenly a desperate need for catching depth in the Chicago system. However, Castillo chose a really poor time to have an off-year at the plate. He is a very promising defensive player with an excellent arm behind the dish. Unfortunately, Castillo has proven for two straight seasons now that he cannot hit right-handed pitchers, which significantly hinders his chances of ever playing on an everyday basis.

Hank Conger | C | Los Angeles
Conger has the opposite problem to Castillo. The slugging catcher can mash with the best on them, but his defense is bad enough that no one believes he can remain behind the dish. After struggling with injuries in 2007 and 2008, the switch hitter finally played a full season and is currently hitting .294/.365/.423 in 428 double-A at-bats. A former first-round pick, Conger is still just 21 years old.

Starlin Castro | SS | Chicago
The Cubs organization was aggressive with Castro in 2009 after he hit .311/.364/.464 at rookie ball in 2008. The 19-year-old shortstop hit .302/.340/.391 with 22 steals (in 33 attempts) at high-A in 2009 before being promoted to double-A, where he’s held his own in 24 games. Incumbent MLB shortstop Ryan Theriot needs to be looking over his shoulder.

Matt Dominguez | 3B | Florida
Three prep third basemen were nabbed near the top of the first round during the 2007 draft: Dominguez, Josh Vitters, and Mike Moustakas. All three players have had their struggles but Dominguez (who was drafted last at 12th overall) is the only one of the trio to make it to double-A. Although he’s struggled a bit with the bat, Dominguez has the edge in the field.

Josh Vitters | 3B | Chicago
Vitters has had troubles adapting to new levels in his brief pro career. After starting out very well in 2009 at low-A (His second attempt at the level), he has struggled mightily upon a promotion to high-A. At the root of the problem is his lack of patience at the plate, which has manifested itself in the form of a dismal 2.4 BB% in 2009.

Bryan Petersen | OF | Florida
I highlighted Petersen prior to the 2009 season as a possible breakout candidate in 2009. He hasn’t made me look like a genius, but he’s held his own in double-A as a 23 year old. His power has taken a step back in 2009, with his ISO dropping from .200+ to .120. He’s also struggled on the base paths with only 12 steals in 24 attempts. On the plus side, he’s shown a consistent ability to hit for average and he continues to trim the strikeouts. If he cannot regain some ground with his power and speed numbers, he’ll develop into a fourth outfielder.

Michael Stanton | OF | Florida
Petersen’s teammate should need no introductions. Stanton is one of the biggest mashers in the minors and fans are constantly asking for updates on his ETA, especially after he spent the first part of 2009 demolishing high-A pitching. The holes in the talented outfielder’s plate approach have been exposed by double-A pitchers, though. He’s currently hitting .234/.311/.453 with a strikeout rate of 33.6 K% in 274 at-bats. Stanton will likely opened 2010 in double-A with a mid-season promotion to triple-A possible if he makes the necessary adjustments, which have so far eluded him. At the age of 19, time is very much on his side.