Archive for Hanley Ramirez

For most major league shortstops, a .285/.366/.443 batting line and a .355 wOBA would be cause for celebration. Hanley Ramirez isn’t like most shortstops, however. The 26-year old Marlins star posted a combined .397 wOBA over the 2006-2009 seasons, easily topping the .400 wOBA mark in each of the past three years. Prior to 2010, ZiPS projected Hanley for a .408 wOBA, and CHONE called for a .412 wOBA.

Why is Ramirez merely hitting very well as opposed to ranking among the absolute best batters in the big leagues? One reason is a lower-than-usual batting average on balls in play — Hanley’s BABIP is .307 this season. His career BABIP is .345, and both ZiPS (.355 pre-season BABIP) and CHONE (.357) predicted 35-36% of his balls put in play would evade fielders. According to this expected BABIP (xBABIP) calculator from The Hardball Times, Ramirez’s BABIP should be closer to .333.

So, Ramirez has been unlucky to an extent. But that’s not to say that everything else is business as usual. His power production is down:

Hanley’s Isolated Power is .158. His career average is .207, and ZiPS (.217 pre-season ISO) and CHONE (.221) expected him to easily surpass the .200 mark. On a related note, Ramirez’s ground ball rate has spiked:

He’s hitting grounders 54.5% of the time in 2010. By contrast, Ramirez’s GB% was 43.8 in 2006, 40.1 in 2007, 45.8 in 2008 and 38.6 last season.

Using Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s site, I broke down Hanley’s batted ball distribution by pitch type over the 2008-2010 seasons (the years for which we have a lot of Pitch F/X data). I also included Ramirez’s slugging percentage on contact (SLG CON) by pitch type. To provide context, you’ll also find the major league averages by pitch type, provided by THT’s Harry Pavlidis.

(Note: the fastball averages include both four-seam and two-seam fastballs.)

Hanley’s hitting more ground balls on fastballs, sliders, curveballs and changeups. He’s still killing fastballs when he makes fair contact, but not to the same extent as in 2008 and 2009. The sample size isn’t huge on curveballs and changeups, but he hasn’t done much of anything with those pitches this season — check out those SLG CON totals in 2010 compared to the two previous seasons.

I don’t think there’s any reason to think that his power output will remain this mild — with 432 plate appearances, Ramirez is short of the point at which ISO becomes statistically reliable (550 PA). It’s entirely possible that he goes on an extra-base hit binge from here on out. ZiPS projects a .190 ISO for the rest of the season. That, along with a BABIP bounce back (.335 projected), gives Ramirez a .391 rest-of-season wOBA. The fact that people are asking, “what’s wrong with this guy?” when he has the second-best wOBA among qualified shortstops tells you just how special a talent Hanley Ramirez is.

I have a strange affinity for the Home Run Derby. It spawns from watching re-runs of the old school Home Run Derby TV series, originally aired in 1960. The rules were different back then — two hitters went head-to-head, squaring off in a nine-inning “game” in which each batter got three outs per inning. If a player didn’t swing at a pitch in the zone, it counted as an out. Between turns, a batter would kick back and chat with host Mark Scott. The winner got a check for two grand and the chance to defend his title the next week against a new opponent. The list of those who competed — Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle among them — is a who’s who of all-time greats.

It’s true, the current form of the Home Run Derby doesn’t compare to its progenitor. The field of contestants doesn’t always include a cavalcade of stars. Sometimes, it seems like hitters take 20 pitches right down the middle before letting ‘er rip. And, the broadcast of the event really should come with a public service announcement imploring viewers to turn down the volume, lest they be haunted in their sleep by shrieks of “backbackbackback.”

Yet, despite its flaws, I watch intently. There’s something enthralling about those majestic moon shots. This year, the list of derby contestants includes Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Nick Swisher and Vernon Wells from the American League, and Corey Hart, Matt Holliday, Hanley Ramirez and Chris Young from the National League. While I don’t claim this will have any predictive value — having a BP coach lobbing mid-60’s fastballs down the pike is quite another thing from game conditions — I thought it would be fun to take a closer look at tonight’s contestants. Where do they hit their homers, how hard are they hit, and how far do those taters travel?

Here’s a chart showing where the HR derby competitors have gone yard this season. I listed switch-hitter Swisher’s numbers from both sides of the plate:

Not surprisingly, most of the contestants’ home run power comes to the pull side of the field. Cabrera is crushing the ball both to the pull side and the opposite field — his home run per fly ball percentage to the pull side is 65 (27.2% MLB average for RHB), and it’s 14% to the opposite side (2.8% MLB average for RHB). Hart and Ramirez have also gone to the opposite field more than most, while Ortiz and Swisher have hit a decent number of homers to center.

Courtesy of Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, here’s how the HR Derby contestants rank in terms of speed off the bat on those homers. The MLB average, for comparison’s sake, is 103.4 MPH:

Wells (106.8 MPH) leads the pack, followed by Holliday (106.1), Cabrera (105.2), Ortiz (104.2), Ramirez (104.1), Young (102.7), Swisher (102.3) and Hart (101.9).

Who’s hitting the longest homers? Hit Tracker measures the “Standard Distance” for home runs hit. From the site, here’s the definition:

The estimated distance in feet the home run would have traveled if it flew uninterrupted all the way down to field level, and if the home run had been hit with no wind, in 70 degree air at sea level. Standard distance factors out the influence of wind, temperature and altitude, and is thus the best way of comparing home runs hit under a variety of different conditions.

Here’s how the derby hopefuls rank in terms of Standard Distance homers. The MLB average is 393.8 feet:

Wells (406.5 Feet) and Holliday (406.1) again rank first and second. Ramirez (400.2), Ortiz (398.8), Cabrera (396.8), Swisher (396.4) and Young (394.5) all best the big league average, while Hart (392.5) comes in below that mark. Hart is tied for the major league lead in “Just Enough” homers, with 10. Just Enough’s, per Hit Tracker, clear “the fence by less than 10 vertical feet,” or land “less than one fence height past the fence.”

And finally, to pre-empt against any cries of “the derby screwed up his swing!,” here are the contestants’ current wOBA totals, as well as their projected rest-of-season wOBA figures from ZiPS. In other words, here’s what they have done so far, and here’s what we can reasonably expect in the second half:

Six out of eight project to hit worse in the second half. Some of these guys have greatly exceeded their previously established level of performance. Even accounting for the spike in production (ZiPS incorporates data from the current season), they figure to regress somewhat when games resume Thursday. If Hart doesn’t continue hitting bombs at a prodigious rate, it’s not because of some HR derby hex — it’s the product of regression to the mean.

Yesterday, we took a look at what goes into infield defense by examining the cases of Mike Jacobs and Hanley Ramirez. Keeping with the themes of defense and, well, the Florida Marlins, I decided to check some data out at the suggestion of colleague Brian Cartwright. Brian astutely pointed out that both Ramirez and second baseman Dan Uggla have posted similar fielding numbers in the sense that both looked slightly different in 2006 and 2008 than they did the year in between.

Interestingly enough, Miguel Cabrera’s defense at third base has followed the same trend, -4 in 2006, -8 in 2007, and -4 in 2008. Of course, Cabrera did not play for the Marlins last season, and was replaced by Jorge Cantu, who proceeded to post a -6 UZR. Let’s visualize the overall UZR numbers for their infield in this span, stacked up next to each other:

Name      2006   2007   2008
Jacobs    -3.2   -4.1  -11.1
Uggla     +7.0   -9.6   +2.9 
Ramirez   -5.5  -19.1   -0.3
Cabrera*  -4.3   -8.1   -6.2

*-Cantu for 2008

In 2006, Jacobs and Cabrera were quite comparable. The next season, Jacobs declined slightly while Cabrera fell off much more, yet their infield peers, perhaps in trying to make up the difference, lost 14-16 runs from the year prior. Last season, the third base situation improved a bit and Ramirez bounced back fantastically. Conversely, Jacobs experienced a vast decrease in his defensive mark and Uggla gained 11-12 runs.

Their respective ranges produce similar results. While we might expect worse range from Jacobs and Cabrera/Cantu to lead to worse UZR marks for Uggla and Ramirez, there seems to be more at work here. Cabrera’s range decline of a couple of runs cannot be the sole contributing factor to Ramirez’s overall defensive mark falling completely off the chart. Likewise, how would Uggla get that much better if Jacobs also fell by the wayside?

As the Chase Utley/Ryan Howard example showed, where Utley posted a ridiculous + – score largely due to Howard’s lack of range, worse range at a position right next door can lead to more opportunities. Unfortunately, many forget that more opportunities can also lead to more failure, but Ramirez and Uggla did not cost their team drastically more error runs than they had in 2006, meaning their extra opportunities were not as detrimental as you might think.

As both MGL and I have shown here, more range actually leads to less errors, and vice versa, with less range leading to more errors, but even when the ranges of Ramirez and Uggla took significant hits in 2007, they did not experience huge shifts in errors compared to the league average fielder at their position.

It makes perfectly good intuitive sense that when the infielder playing next to you shows poor range, that your numbers would also suffer, but that does not seem to be the definitive case here. Perhaps something else is at work, like the pitchers being hit very hard, or both players experiencing the injury bug, but I do not have the end all solution here. Maybe a wisdom of the crowd approach would serve well to answer this question. So, what say you? Why would the defensive numbers of Ramirez and Uggla drop so drastically in 2007 when Jacobs and Cabrera did not take too significant of a hit? And why then would Ramirez and Uggla improve even though Jacobs severely worsened?

Royals skipper Trey Hillman recently spoke about the defense of his new first baseman, Mike Jacobs, subtly hinting that the numbers deeming him poor are not entirely accurate. Jacobs, according to Hillman, is very good at handling the 3-1 plays in which the first baseman lobs the ball to the pitcher covering the base, which apparently makes him much more of a solid fielder than meets the eye. Whenever I read quotes like this, or stories about players discussing the shortcomings of defensive metrics, I get a bit annoyed because it seems that those doing the talking have a complete lack of understanding of how the metrics work. Hillman may be an innocent bystander in all of this, but his words, for whatever reason, tipped me over the top.

Mike Jacobs, over the last three seasons, has the following UZR numbers: -3.2, -4.1, -11.1. His Dewan + – numbers further confirm the fielding ineptitude. But when managers or players hear numbers like this, they automatically assume it refers to errors made, which is utterly incorrect. Let’s look further at Jacobs, shall we? Thankfully, UZR breaks down where the runs saved/allowed come from, and a more granular analysis at Jacobs shows that he is quite adept in certain areas and equally awful in others.

Jacobs’ double play stats averaged around -0.4 runs/season, placing him right around average. His error runs, which show the runs saved via not making errors relative to the average player at the position, average out to +0.5 runs/season. Essentially, those defending Jacobs because he does not make many errors are correct, but not making errors does not automatically result in a solid fielder. The issue with Mike Jacobs is range, and the fact that he, well, does not have any. Over the last three years, his range has cost the team an average of -6.0 runs.

Put everything together and a player with an average -6.1 runs/season on defense emerges. Certainly not the worst fielder in the history of the sport, but by no means an effective one. Jacobs looks solid in terms of double plays and limiting errors, but his lack of range prevents him from reaching balls that other first basemen can glove. So, just because Jacobs has the reputation of being a poor fielder does not necessarily mean he stinks in every aspect of fielding, and along similar lines, the areas in which he performs well, though important to the mainstream, are not the sole barometers for defensive prowess.

Jacobs’ former teammate, Hanley Ramirez, is another interesting defensive case study, as HanRam has the reputation for being a Jeter-esque fielder despite two league average or slightly worse seasons out of three in the big leagues. That’s right, in 2006 and 2008, Hanley the Manly put up UZR marks of -5.5 and -0.3, respectively, which are much better than the numbers posted by Jacobs given the difficulty of the position. Via positional adjustments, remember that, assuming 162 games for each player, an SS with a -7.5 run defensive mark is equal in overall fielding value to a first baseman with a +12.5 defensive mark, because 1B is very easy to play relative to captaining the infield.

What earned Ramirez the reputation was his -19 run performance in 2007, but getting granular once more shows an interesting tell. Ramirez has been above average in ability to turn double plays in all three of his seasons, and his error runs are not necessarily the ultimate cause of his defensive downfall either, as the -7.3 ErrR in 2007 was not significantly higher than the -5.8 ErrR in 2006. Look at his range runs, though: -1.1, -13.3, +2.5.

In both 2006 and 2008, Ramirez was virtually league average in terms of range, but he lost everything in 2007. The three years may not be a large enough sample from which to draw any conclusions, but my gut instinct tells me that the 2007 season is more fluky than indicative of his true talent level. We have two players here, one of whom is a poor fielder that elicits defense from fans based on an ignorance of what actually goes into evaluating fielding, and another who has garnered a reputation in the mainstream for one really bad year that may very well go down as a fluke among flukes. The bottom line is that more goes into fielding valuations than simply the “ability” to not make errors, and understanding these components is a must in order to ever have intellectual discourse regarding the subject.

With first basemen in the books and our look at keystone cornermen last night, our attention will now turn to shortstop, a position once populated with mega-stars such as Cal Ripken, Alex Rodriguez, and Nomar Garciaparra. Now, we have the new breed of shortstops, all of whom play in the NL East, with last names beginning with same letter: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, and Jose Reyes. Rollins took home the NL MVP award last season, in a much-debated race. Ramirez is probably the most underrated player in the game of baseball right now. And Reyes is one of the most exciting and talented players in the game.

Offensively, Hanley Ramirez is in a league of his own, with a 4.24 WPA/LI, just about two wins better than closest competitor JJ Hardy of the Brewers. Hardy checks in with 2.27, just ahead of Reyes and his 2.20. Jimmy Rollins places fourth, over a full win less than Reyes, at 1.02, with Christian Guzman slightly behind at 0.96. Rollins did have a disappointing season in 2008, in which he saw his power output diminish. He also missed some time early in the year due to injury, which is uncharacteristic of his career. His value extended beyond just the regular forms of evaluated offense this year, however.

On the basepaths, Bill James’ baserunning score placed him fifth in the entire major leagues with a +46. This metric adds one point for each steal while subtracting two for each time caught stealing, and factors in how often a player was able to get from first to third, second to home, first to home, and avoid double plays. No other shortstop ranked in the top ten. Looking solely at the stolen base portion, Jose Reyes finished sixth, but he could not capitalize enough on the base advancement factors to earn a spot in the top ten.

Additionally, Rollins led all shortstops with a +23 in the field, making him this year’s best fielding shortstop. Yunel Escobar of the Braves finished slightly behind Jimmy, at +21, with JJ Hardy and Cesar Izturis tied for third place at +19. Jack Wilson rounded out the top five with a +16. All of this does not push Rollins into the same area as Ramirez, by any stretch, but serves as an important reminder of why more factors other than offense need to be taken into account when evaluating a season.

Yunel is a pretty neat example of a role reversal. Last year, in half a season with the Braves, he was well above average with the stick, but scored a 0 in the +- fielding system, making him the epitome of a league average shortstop. This year, his WPA/LI deemed him a league average hitter, yet he was the second best fielding shortstop. Oh, how things change.

On the opposite of the effectiveness spectrum, Bobby Crosby’s -2.56 WPA/LI was by far the worst in baseball for shortstops, a full win worse than Yuniesky Betancourt. In the field, Crosby was a -13, with Betancourt a -19, so it is not as if Crosby played gold glove caliber defense. He had a dreadful season. Orlando Cabrera (-1.43), Edgar Renteria (-1.40), and Miguel Tejada (-1.27) round out the bottom five.

Stephen Drew led the pack with 44 doubles, with Jose Reyes topping everyone with his 19 triples. Hanley Ramirez led with 33 home runs, 92 walks, and a .940 OPS. Albert Pujols should win the MVP award this year in the National League, but based on how long the Marlins stayed in the race, Hanley Ramirez should not go unnoticed at all. His fielding has improved as well, with a +3 this year compared to a -37 in 2007. Yuniesky struck out the least, just 42 times. Rollins swung the least often, offering on just 39.7% of the pitches thrown his way. Despite that, he made contact on 90.8% of those swings, a rate topped only by Ryan Theriot and Marco Scutaro, who also found themselves at the top in percentage of pitches seen in the strike zone.

We also cannot forget Troy Tulowitzki, who had an injury-plagued sophomore campaign after proving himself as quite capable offensively and a wizard with the glove in 2007. Or even Rafael Furcal, who had a scorchingly hot April before going into hibernation only to return just in time for the division series. With Troy, Jose, Hanley, and perhaps Yunel on the rise, with veterans like Furcal, Rollins and Guzman still remaining valuable, this position might lack the star power of the A-Rod days, but it is still very talented.

Hanley Ramirez has been a star from day one in Florida, putting up remarkably impressive seasons in his first two years with the Marlins and establishing himself as one of the game’s elite young talents. He built on an already strong rookie season last year, lowering his strikeout rate and raising his power, and even with defense that suggests he belongs in the outfield, a .332/.386/.562 season from a 23-year-old who plays half his games in a pitcher’s park is pretty special, and when you toss in the 51 stolen bases, you have a guy who can lay claim as the league’s most versatile offensive weapon.

So, when Ramirez led the surprising Marlins to a first place April with a blistering start, the natural assumption was that this kid was just continuing to develop into a potential hall of fame talent. He hit .324/.400/.595 with eight home runs and nine steals in the first 27 games of the season, which put him on pace to get near an unheard of 50-50 combination in steals and home runs. No one expected him to actually pull it off, but with the way he was progressing as a hitter, people weren’t lining up to bet against him either. There was virtually no ceiling for what Ramirez could accomplish in 2008.

Then came May 1st, and it brought a pretty big dose of reality to Ramirez’s season. Since that day, he’s hitting .257/.355/.343 with one home run and four stolen bases. He has half as many extra base hits in the same amount of plate appearances, as the power has just disappeared. Interestingly enough, Ramirez did something similar a year ago, when he hit .364/.462/.626 in April and .279/.326/.410 in May. For whatever reason (and there probably isn’t one, honestly), he’s come out of the gates charging, but keeps running into a wall around the 30 game mark.

He’s going to bounce, back, however. This kid is too good of a hitter, even with his contact problems, to struggle like this for much longer. He still has some work to do before he can challenge Albert Pujols and Chase Utley for the title of best player in the National League, but the talent is there.