Archive for Homer Bailey

I, Claudia’s: Long Weekend Notebook

The observant reader will notice that, though purporting to cover the entire weekend, what follows only actually mentions two of the previous four days. This has everything to do with the fact that, as previously stated, I’m not half-machine.

Friday, April 09
I was surprised to find that Major League Baseball scheduled other games on this, the day that All-Joyer Colby Lewis made his stateside return. “Sacre bleu!” is undoubtedly what you’re saying to yourself in utter disbelief. Indeed, that’s what I shouted, perhaps a little too enthusiastically, at the very public space where I first made the discovery. In any case, Marc Hulet and I both had thoughts (here and here, specifically) on Lewis’s start and were foolish enough to write them down for posterity yesterday.

Against all odds, two other pitchers distinguished themselves for other reasons, as follows.

Exhibit One: Homer Bailey

The top of the third inning of today’s Cubs-Reds game is probably the kind that Cincinnati’s front officers envisioned when they took righty Homer Bailey with the seventh overall pick in the 2004 draft.

It was during that inning when Bailey recorded whiffs on 6 of 17 pitches — all but one of which (i.e. the whiffs) came on Bailey’s four-seamer, a pitch he threw at about 93 mph for the game. Three of the aforementioned whiffs came on an excellent sequence of progerssively higher and outside-er (though always within the zone) fastballs to Aramis Ramirez*, a player who, according to our Pitch Type Values, has posted above-average run values against fastballs every year since 2004.

*You can see the third of these at about the 22-second mark in this video.

It deserves to be said that the inning wasn’t all flowers and a piece of cake for Bailey. He hit the first batter of the inning, Derrek Lee, with a first-pitch fastball; allowed Lee to take second on a wild pitch in the dirt; and conceded a run when Xavier Nady hit a wall-ball single. Still, the run aside, the life on Bailey’s fastball, and the way he managed to put it so ably by a fastball hitter, proved to make good viewing.

Exhibit Dos: Kris Medlen

With one out in the bottom of the 12th inning of Atlanta’s game at San Francisco, Kris Medlen threw a sort of pitch to Travis Ishikawa that’ always a pleasure to witness — namely, a sort of two-seamer that starts inside and off the plate to a lefty but tails back in over the corner of the plate for a called strike.

The pitch — and three more, very similar ones, to righty Eli Whiteside — sent me to Medlen’s Pitchf/x profile. Here’s something interesting: 15 of the 27 pitches Medlen threw today were classified as two-seamers by Pitchf/x. This is unsurprising, as the sort of pitch that he threw to Ishikawa — with all that arm-side run — is almost always of the two-seam variety. And across three appearances this season, 42% of Medlen’s pitches have been two-seamers. Yet, a glance at last season’s numbers reveals that only 6.2% of his pitches were classified as two-seamers. Of course, this could simply be the product of a change in the GameDay algorithm — if that’s the case, so be it. It could also be sign that Medlen is making a concerted effort to feature the pitch this year. More on this story as it develops!

Sunday, April 11
If you’re all up on the Twitters, you might already know that I spent a good portion of this Pacific Northwest afternoon at PGE Park, home (at least for the remainder of the season) to the Portland Beavers of the Pacific Coast League. In the more likely event that you’re not hanging on my every 140 characters, well, it’s still the case: today, San Diego’s Triple-A Beavers played host to Oakland affiliate the Sacramento River Cats.

These last three years or so, the Beavers — like many Triple-A clubs, frankly — have been less a magnet for high-end prospects and more a sort of purgatory for fringe ballplayers of all descriptions. The early returns on this year’s club are a little more interesting, as center fielder Luis Durango, shortstop Lance Zawadski, corner guy Craig Cooper, other corner guy Aaron Cunningham, other other corner guy Mike Baxter, catcher Dusty Ryan, and starter Will Inman — i.e. 70% of today’s starting lineup for the Beavs — are all, if not necessarily prospects, at least reasonably interesting minor leaguers on the right side of 27.

The River Cats, meanwhile, featured a lineup that included big-time prospect Chris Carter, masher Jack Cust, and giant man Michael Taylor in the 3-4-5 spots. None of them did much of anything, as Sacramento managed only two hits on the afternoon. Of note, however, was this: over his first three plate appearances, Cust saw fourteen pitches and swung at exactly zero of them. The news prompted Ken Arneson to tweet: “A’s team yawns/PA is already way lower this year.”


Sophomores: The NL Central

Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the National League Central division. Of the six teams in the division, no club relied on young players in 2008 more than the Cincinnati Reds – both in the field and on the mound.

In the past few days, we have looked at the: AL Central, AL West, AL East.

Cincinnati Reds

In any other year, Joey Votto would have had a legitimate shot at the Rookie of the Year award in the National League. Last season, the first baseman hit .297/.368/.506 with 24 homers and 84 RBI in 526 at-bats. He also posted a walk rate of 10.1% and a strikeout rate of 19.4%. This season, Votto has dealt with some medical concerns, but he’s still hitting a robust .357/.464/.627 with eight homers and 33 RBI in 126 at-bats. His strikeout rate is virtually the same, but the 25-year-old Canadian has increased his walk rate by almost five percent.

It’s funny how baseball works. Outfielder Jay Bruce was the most highly-anticipated rookie of the year at the beginning of 2008, but his rookie season ended up being pretty average. Now 22, Bruce spent the first 48 games of the season in triple-A before his promotion. In the Majors, he hit .254/.314/.453 with 21 homers in 413 at-bats. He also had a walk rate of 7.4% and a strikeout rate of 26.6%. This season, he’s hitting just .217/.306/.469 with 16 homers in 226. On the positive side, his walk rate has increased by three percent and the strikeout rate is down four percent. After posting a .298 BABIP last season, Bruce’s BABIP is a ridiculously low .206. His line drive rate is down seven percent from the 21.1 LD% he had last season. Right now, he’s kind of looking like a cross between Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn, which isn’t really a good thing. At least he’s still very young.

The only bigger enigma in the Reds’ system is right-hander Homer Bailey. The 23-year-old pitcher has very good stuff, but consistency is not his strong suit. After a disappointing nine starts in 2007, Bailey returned to the Majors for part of 2008 and posted a 7.93 ERA with 59 hits in 36.1 innings. He posted a 4.21 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of just 4.46 K/9. This season, Bailey has made just one (poor) MLB start while spending the majority of his time in triple-A. He has a 2.83 ERA with 81 hits allowed in 82.2 innings. He has a walk rate of 2.72 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.06 K/9.

Johnny Cueto was mostly an unknown prospect prior to the 2008 season but he made a name for himself pretty quickly. Overall, the right-hander was 9-14 with a 4.81 ERA and he was inconsistent all season. However, he still struck out more than 150 batters (8.17 K/9) while keeping the walks to a modest number (3.52 BB/9). This season, the 23-year-old has been even better with a 2.17 ERA and 68 hits allowed in 87 innings. He’s decreased his walk rate by almost one full walk per nine innings, but his strikeout rate has also dropped. Cueto’s ground-ball rate is also up, though, and he’s becoming more of a pitcher and less of a thrower.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee fans had been waiting for Manny Parra to “arrive” for quite a few seasons, but his MLB career was delayed by injuries in the minors. The left-hander’s rookie season in 2008 had promise, although he allowed far too many hits with 181 in just 166 innings of work. He also posted a walk rate of 4.07 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.97. This season, Parra completely fell apart before being demoted to triple-A. In the Majors, Parra posted a 7.52 ERA with 83 hits in 64.2 innings. His walk rate jumped to 5.71 BB/9.

St. Louis Cardinals

Kyle McClellan, 25, was a key part of the Cardinals bullpen in 2008 despite an uninspired minor league career. The right-hander posted a 4.04 ERA with 79 hits allowed in 75.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 3.09 BB/9 and 7.02 K/9. This season, the reliever has a 3.45 ERA and has allowed just 23 hits in 31.1 innings. He has struggled with his walk rate at 4.88 BB/8 and his strikeout rate is 6.61 K/9.

Houston Astros

J.R. Towles was one of the Astros’ better hitting prospects prior to the 2008 season but he struggled mightily in the Majors. The right-handed hitting catcher batted just .137/.250/.253 with a strikeout rate of 27.4 K%. He hit more than .300 after a demotion to triple-A. This season, Towles, 25, has appeared in just four MLB games and has a batting average of .182. He’s spent the Majority of the year in triple-A and has a triple-slash line of .281/.385/.461. With top prospect and catcher Jason Castro in double-A, Towles’ future is probably in another organization.

A Rule 5 pick-up from the Dodgers, Wesley Wright appeared in 71 games for the Astros in 2008. He posted an ERA of 5.01 and allowed 45 hits in 55.2 innings of work. He had a walk rate of 5.50 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.22 K/9. The southpaw held lefties to a .207 batting average and righties hit .220. This year, Wright struggled with a 7.24 ERA and allowed 23 hits in 13.2 innings. He was then demoted to triple-A.

Chicago Cubs

Kosuke Fukudome had a red-hot first few months in the Majors and then fell off the face of the earth for the remainder of 2008. Overall, the Japanese rookie hit .257/.359/.279 with 10 homers and 12 stolen bases in 501 at-bats. Last year, he hit .279 in the first half of the year and just .217 in the second half. This year, he got off to another good start but has cooled as of late to an overall line of .266/.394/.429 with five homers and four steals. The 32-year-old outfielder does not have youth on his side.

The reigning Rookie of the Year in the NL, Geovany Soto had a great offensive season for the Cubs. He hit .285/.364/.504 with 23 homers and 86 RBI in 494 at-bats. The catcher also posted a walk rate of 11.2 BB% and a strikeout rate of 24.5 K%. This year has been a disaster as he’s hit just .217/.324/.311 with three homers in 161 at-bats. His rates are pretty much the same but his power has dried up. The Cubs really need his bat to wake up.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates received some help from outfielders Brandon Moss and Nyjer Morgan in 2008. Moss was acquired from Boston in the Jason Bay deal, while Morgan is a homegrown talent. Moss had a modest rookie year and hit just .246/.304/.436 with eight homers and one steal in 236 at-bats. His strikeout rate was high at 29.7 K%. It’s dropped almost 10 percent this season but the outfielder is still not hitting well with a line of .243/.293/.343 with one homer and no steals. Morgan, on the other hand, is exceeding expectations. The speedy outfielder had just nine steals in 14 attempts last year but he hit .294/.345/.375 in 160 at-bats. This season he has 16 steals in 23 attempts and is hitting .261/.338/.340. Morgan, 28, looks like a useful fourth outfielder.


Are the Reds Ready to Get a Little Greener?

Entering 2008 the Cincinnati Reds were supposed to feature two exciting rookies. No, not Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto. All the hoopla surrounding the Reds’ future involved top prospects Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey. But a funny thing happened along the way during spring training: It was decided Bruce and Bailey needed some more seasoning. And the emergence of Cueto, as well as the late March addition of free agent Corey Patterson, afforded the Reds that luxury.

Votto has enjoyed a solid season in Cincinnati, so far. He is hitting .294/.348/.506 and has four home runs in 85 at-bats. The 24-year-old Canadian has done the unthinkable: He’s taken playing time away from a veteran (Scott Hatteberg) under manager Dusty Baker’s watch.

Cueto was blowing everyone away early in the season – fans, writers and batters, alike. He’s likely hit the inevitable wall, after allowing 12 runs in his last two starts (including a stinker where he allowed seven runs in 1.2 innings against the surprising St. Louis Cardinals). In truth, his first major league appearance probably did him more harm than good after he caught everyone’s attention by allowing one run on one hit over seven innings, while striking out 10. The bar was raised a little too high after that, and he’s only been ‘pretty good’ since then, as his 5.40 season ERA shows.

Meanwhile, down on the farm in Triple-A, Bruce and Bailey are quietly going about their business showing that they are ready whenever the Reds organization decides it needs them.

Bruce, who turned 21 a month ago, is hitting .284/.308/.505 with five homers in 109 at-bats. He still has some rough spots, as witnessed by the fact he’s racked up 27 strikeouts and only six walks. But he’s stolen seven bases in as many attempts and the left-handed batter is hitting .303 against southpaws with an .801 OPS (but no walks in 33 at-bats). He’s been slumping lately and has hit only .152 in his last 10 games with 11 strikeouts in 32 at-bats.

Bailey has had only one bad outing in six appearances for the Triple-A Louisville Bats. On April 25 against Indianapolis he allowed four runs in six innings on six hits (Oh, the horror). Other than that, he’s been great. Overall, he has a 2.29 ERA and has allowed 30 hits in 39.1 innings of work. He’s improved his control and walked just nine batters, while striking out 32. He’s still obviously working up in the zone a lot and has a GO/AO (ground out to air out) rate of 0.76. The right-handed pitcher is holding left-handed batters to a .189 average.

Given the struggles of Bronson Arroyo (8.63 ERA) and Josh Fogg (9.27 ERA), Bailey could be up before Votto celebrates Victoria Day (May 19). Bruce could potentially help ignite the offence with outfielders Ken Griffey (.228/.310/.377), Patterson (.200/.263/.433), and Adam Dunn (.221/.375/.389) struggling.