Archive for J.A. Happ

It’s no secret that I’ve been a big fan of the moves that Houston Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow has been making. He’s done an outstanding job of turning the organization around despite having almost nothing to work with. Astros fans will not see immediate results at the big league level but the organization – including the front office, scouts, and minor league development staff – have done an amazing job of infusing talent into the system.

Today’s trade with the Toronto Blue Jays will add even more talent to the organization and the 10-player deal (called the most boring 10-player deal ever) is being highly underrated from Houston’s perspective and will no doubt positively impact the club for a long time. Although Luhnow did not acquire an A-level prospect in the deal, he acquired three B-level prospects and a sleeper.

My first impression of this trade is that Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos – referred to as a ninja by many Toronto fans as well as the media for his stealth-like moves – may have made a panic trade and served up too much talent for three so-so pitchers with big league experience.

Let’s breakdown the minor league players involved:

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Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: J.A. Happ, LHP
Happ did not garner a lot of attention while rising through the minors, but the left-hander had a solid rookie season for the Phillies. He did a nice job of keeping runners off base with just 149 hits allowed and a walk rate of 3.04 BB/9 in 166.0 innings. Happ’s strikeout rate dipped from his minor-league average, but it was still reasonable at 6.45 K/9. If he can utilize his curveball more often, it might help him with his strikeout rate, because it will change the hitters’ eye levels. One of the biggest ugly marks on his stats line is the 38.4% ground-ball rate.

The Riser: Trevor May, RHP
The 20-year-old May made just 15 starts in ’09, but he flashed some intriguing potential. The right-hander posted a strikeout rate of 11.06 K/9 while allowing 58 hits in 77.1 innings at the low-A ball level. May did struggle with his control, posting a walk rate of 5.00 BB/9. He did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with a HR/9 rate of 0.35. Left-handers hit just .188 against him in ’09. May features an 87-93 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

The Tumbler: Anthony Hewitt, OF
Hewitt is a classic raw athlete with the potential to absolutely explode if he can embrace the nuances of the sport. It could be a long wait for Phillies fans, though. After struggling during his debut in ’08, the 20-year-old Hewitt scuffled again in ’09 and hit just .223/.255/.395 in 233 at-bats. He posted a low walk rate of 3.7% and his strikeout rate was far too high at 33.0%. In a small sample size of 44 at-bats, his performance against southpaws was brutal: .136/.188/.273. Hewitt did show some power with an ISO of .172. He has some speed on the bases, but his base-stealing skills are raw, and he was successful in just nine of 14 attempts.

The ’10 Sleeper: Yohan Flande, LHP
The 23-year-old Flande had a solid debut in North America in ’08, and he followed that up by making 13 starts in both high-A and double-A in ’09. The left-hander allowed 81 hits in 70.2 innings at the senior level, but he posted a solid FIP of 3.94. Flande posted solid walk rates at both levels and averaged out around 2.65 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped from 7.35 in high-A to 6.27 K.9 in double-A. Overall, his ground-ball rate was solid at 52.1%. Flande’s repertoire includes an 87-91 mph fastball, a plus change-up and a developing slider.

Bonus: Drew Naylor, RHP
Naylor was highlighted in the ’08 series as the Phillies’ breakout candidate for ’09. Pitching in high-A in ’09, he had an OK year but really did nothing to distinguish himself. Naylor showed good control with a walk rate of 2.11 BB/9, and his strikeout rate was OK at 6.55 K/9. He allowed 162 hits in 158.0 innings of work. Naylor, 23, should move up to double-A in 2010.

26-year old rookie pitcher J.A. Happ has been a revelation for the Phillies. With 10-2 record and a 2.59 ERA for a team that’s a lock for the NL East pennant, Happ may be pitching his way to the NL Rookie of the Year award.

So then, is Happ for real? That depends on what you mean by “for real”. If you mean legit big leaguer? Sure, absolutely. Is he a genuine top of the rotation starter? Well, let’s not get too worked up.

Right off the bat, his ERA-FIP differential is a striking 1.57. His strikeout (6.2) and walk rate (3.3) both are average. His HR/FB rate is 7.6%, pretty suspect, especially for a Philly pitcher. His left on base % is 86%, and his BABIP is at an unsustainably low .252 mark. His expected fielding independent ERA (xFIP) is 4.75. Reading various scouting reports on Happ, the group-think seems to be that he’s a 4th starter. That would make an xFIP of 4.75 feel about right. So there you have it. Red flags o’plenty. I would, however, expect his K’s to go up a bit based on his minor league numbers.

Digging a little deeper, let’s look at Happ’s repertoire, as this is where things get interesting. Few pitchers throw the fastball more than Happ. He throws the pitch 71.5% of the time and for a good reason, the pitch has been worth 18.6 runs above average. Pitchers that throw the fastball as often and effectively as Happ are either: A.) Flame-throwers like Clayton Kershaw or B.) Extreme sinker-ballers like Joel Pineiro. Happ is neither. His fastball averages 89.7 MPH and it’s straight as an arrow. No, really, check it out; it’s actually kind of bizarre. Here is a chart of his vertical and horizontal movement from his last start against the Mets –

The pitch, on average, has 4.5 inches less vertical movement than the average four-seamer, but three inches more ‘rise’. I have the tendency to think a pitch this straight might get punished, but it’s giving hitters fits. There’s an interesting theory out there that because of Happ’s freakishly long wingspan (he’s 6-6), he gets more extension towards home plate, making his perceived velocity to the hitter 94 MPH. That would explain a lot. It reminds me of Chris Young, pre-injury.

Young’s 7/4/07 start

To compliment the heat, Happ also features a decent slider, along with a decent change-up and curve. Put this all together and you have the marks of a solid, cost-controlled piece of the Phillies’ rotation who happens to be on one heck of a nice run at the moment. Happ has benefited from some luck, but he has been more than just lucky. He’s actually pretty good. Not this good, but better than average.

I’m grateful to Eric Seidman for sharing some of his insights for this post.

The Favorites:
1. Randy Wells, RHP, Chicago
Wells is ninth in the league in lowest BB/9 at 2.09 BB/9 and second amongst rookies behind Josh Geer. Wells is also 20th in K/BB at 2.72, although he’s eight spots below Zimmermann. The Chicago righty is comfortably in the lead amongst rookies and 16th overall in lowest HR/9 at 0.75. Wells has the 17th lowest FIP in the NL at 3.72, while Happ is at 34th (with an ERA/FIP difference of -1.32).

2. J.A. Happ, LHP, Philadelphia
Happ is tops amongst (healthy) rookies in K/9 at 6.52 (minimum 90 IPs), but that is good for just 35th in the NL. Zimmermann (on his way to Tommy John surgery) was tops amongst rookies and ninth overall at 9.07 K/9. Happ is 10th in the league in lowest-average-allowed at .233, 12 spots ahead of Wells and 13 spots ahead of Kawakami. Happ is 10th in the NL in WHIP, followed directly by Wells in the 11th hole. Happ also has the fourth lowest BABIP allowed at .262 (Wells is at 15th).

3. Dexter Fowler, CF, Colorado
Fowler is 21st in the league with a BB% rate at 13.6 (minimum 200 plate appearances), 10 spots ahead of Ryan Hanigan (who also has the 12th lowest K% at 10.9%, and the fifth best BB/K). Fowler has the seventh highest BABIP in the NL at .365, while rookies Chris Dickerson and Parra come in next at 16th and 17th, respectively. Fowler has 10 stolen bases more than any other rookie with 26 total. He performs terribly in center field according to UZR, and is rated last in the league in that category.

4. Andrew McCutchen, CH, Pittsburgh
McCutchen is second in rookies in OPS at .834. He’s also second in slugging and third in batting average. He doesn’t stand out in any one offensive category right now, but he has good all-around numbers. McCutchen has shown the best range in center field amongst the rookies, although he has not fared well in UZR. Colby Rasmus leads rookie center fielders in that category by a wide margin.

5. Casey McGehee, UTL, Milwaukee
McGehee has the slight edge on batting average over Parra, but he also has about 100 fewer plate appearances. None of the rookies are amongst the leaders in average in the National League. McGehee is the only rookie with an ISO above .200 at .203. good for 32nd in the league. He is also first in rookies with an OPS of .864. Defensively, he’s been average-at-best at second base and quite below-average at third base.

Watch Out For:
Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta
Hanson is hurt by his lack of innings, but he could make a run at the top spot with a solid month of September.

Kenshin Kawakami, RHP, Atlanta
This Japanese veteran is reliable and plugs along, but he doesn’t really deserve consideration for the award given his professional experience.

Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Washington
If not for his injury, Zimmermann would be a favorite for the award given how well he’s pitched, based on numerous categories.

Chris Coghlan, LF, Florida
Like McCutchen, Coghlan has solid overall numbers, but does not stand out in any one area. Defensively, he has not performed well according to UZR.

Gerardo Parra, CF, Arizona
Parra leads rookies with eight triples, but has stolen just five bases in 10 attempts. His defensive play has been pretty average.

According to a report on Yahoo, the Boston Red Sox organization has offered the Toronto Blue Jays a very competitive package for ace starter Roy Halladay. According to the site, Boston offered young starters Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden, as well as 19-year-old outfielder Ryan Westmoreland.

Frankly, I like that much better than the rumored offer from the Philadelphia Phillies that included young hurler J.A. Happ, starter Carlos Carrasco, infielder Jason Donald, and outfielder Michael Taylor. Frankly, the only player in that deal that does anything for me is Taylor. You have to wonder how the Phillies organization can justify holding back its best prospects for one of the Top 5 pitchers in all of baseball and perhaps the most consistent in the past five years?

If I were the Jays, I would not do a deal with Philly without double-A pitching prospect Kyle Drabek and high-A outfielder Dominic Brown. The Phillies’ deal is almost insulting: a MLB pitcher currently playing over his ceiling, a pitching prospect who has regressed in the past two seasons, a shortstop who is an average hitter at best and may need to move to second base, as well as Taylor.

However, even a deal including Drabek and Brown would not appeal to me as much as Boston’s rumored offer of two MLB-ready, young pitchers and a talented (but inexperienced) young outfielder. If the Sox tossed in MLB infielder Jed Lowrie, outfielder Josh Reddick or right-hander Junichi Tazawa, I would probably scream, “Sold!” The organization refuses to trade SS/RHP prospect Casey Kelly and MLB reliever Daniel Bard, and I can respect that; the other players that Boston is offering are much better than those being suggested by Philly.

Forget about dealing within the division. Toronto needs to get the best deal possible for Halladay, and that could very well come from Boston.

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have, over the last several seasons, reignited a rivalry that many have been hoping to see for quite some time. They have also combined for extremely memorable finishes in each of the last two seasons. Entering 2009, the teams once again project to be very close in talent, with the Mets solidifying their bullpen and the Phillies ridding themselves of Adam Eaton. Both of the teams also happen to be four men deep in their respective starting rotations, with a decent number of hurlers competing for the final spots.

With Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez in the fold, Tim Redding looked to be the de facto fifth starter when he signed early in the offseason. Omar Minaya added some competition, however, by bringing prospect Jonathan Niese to camp as well as inking Livan Hernandez and Freddy Garcia to minor league contracts with spring training invites. Redding reportedly showed up overweight and has not been terribly impressive so far, giving up nine earned runs in just two innings of work.

Though we should never put too much stock into preseason statistics, you better believe that they play a part in the decision making processes. In 14.2 innings this month, Livan Hernandez has a 3.07 ERA and has not yet surrendered a home run. Sure, his 4.29 K/9 is below average and his success is likely smoke and mirrors, but he hasn’t looked too shabby. His low risk counterpart Garcia has been the opposite, allowing 14 hits and 13 earned runs in just seven innings, vastly reducing his chances of making the big league club. And despite being young, Niese has not looked great either, with seven walks and six earned runs in eight innings. He has shown a knack for fanning hitters, but his control needs improvement before we can consider him to be a viable and dependable major league pitcher.

Then we have Pedro Martinez, who as I wrote in a profile at Baseball Prospectus has seemingly been engaged in a one-sided game of hard to get with his former employers. The Mets apparently have an offer of $1-2 mil on the table for Pedro, and if the Dodgers fail to match these terms, Martinez would prefer to remain in New York. Assuming Garcia does not break camp with the team, and Martinez comes aboard, what do you do? Minaya will have Livan, Redding, Pedro, and Niese and just one spot available. Niese would presumably go back to the minors, but that still leaves Livan, Redding, and Pedro, with Redding being the sole owner of a guaranteed contract.

The Phillies situation is a bit easier in terms of the number of viable candidates left, but the remaining two hurlers have both been very impressive. With Kyle Kendrick and Carlos Carrasco out of the hunt, just J.A. Happ and Chan Ho Park remain. In 15 innings this month, Happ has a 3.60 ERA with 11 punchouts and just three free passes issued. Those numbers are bested by Park, who has a 1.54 ERA, 11 punchouts and no walks in 11.2 innings.

With the uncertainty surrounding Cole Hamels‘ availability, both Happ and Park could conceivably start the season in the rotation. If Hamels is available right away, the Phillies have a decision to make: which one starts and which one goes to the bullpen? The “logical” decision would be to place Happ in the bullpen to start the season given the absence of JC Romero for at least 50 games. Either way, whichever pitcher loses out will be close behind should the fifth-spot victor struggle.

If you’re a Mets fan, do you want Redding, Pedro, or Livan? And for Phillies fans, Park or Happ? And if you’re a fan of neither, who has the more intimidating name: Balfour or Broxton?

Entering spring training, the Phillies were set in four of their five starting pitching slots, with Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton. The fifth spot would be up for grabs between Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ, newly acquired Chan Ho Park, and prospect Carlos Carrasco. Kendrick and Carrasco have both struggled in limited action thus far, while Happ and Park have done nothing but impress. In fact, their duel might be making more headlines in Philadelphia if it weren’t for the fact that Hamels recently took a plane ride back home to get a tight left elbow examined.

Hamels insists that the “injury” is nothing serious and that he should be okay for his opening day start on April 5th against the Braves. Apparently, he feels fine while pitching and does not experience any soreness, tightness, or tenderness following an outing, but has slight discomfort in between innings. Many will be quick to point out his elevated workload and its role in this situation, but let’s not get too ahead of ourselves.

In 2006, Hamels logged 181.1, 73% of which occurred at the major league level. The following season, Cole pitched a total of 190 innings including his lone postseason start against the Rockies. This past year, however, he combined 227.1 regular season innings with 35 more in the playoffs to surpass his 2007 total by just over 72 frames. In the process, his name found its way into several columns discussing the Verducci Effect, which theorizes that young pitchers experiencing a significant increase in workload are more vulnerable to injuries.

Despite Hamels’ insistence that the issue might be overblown, he is not going to risk his entire season in order to toe the rubber on opening day. If, for whatever reason, his left elbow has more damage than meets the eye, both Park and Happ will end up in the rotation to start the season, rendering their current competition moot. Unfortunately, this would not be a consolation for anyone outside of either Park or Happ, as the Phillies will need a healthy Hamels to have any shot of making the playoffs, let alone repeating.

This is not the first time Hamels has had to battle with the injury bug and CHONE seems to recognize this, suggesting that the World Series MVP will make just 29 starts. Despite the dropoff in playing time, his forecast calls for a higher strikeout rate while sustaining the walk rate, FIP, and strand percentage. Hamels is a true ace in every sense of the term, and despite both his and Amaro’s subtle hints at annoyance that this story is making plenty of headlines, even the slightest talk of ailments to the lefty is going to set the Phanbase into a frenzy of speculation.

If everything that has been said is 100% accurate, then Hamels will not miss any time to start the season, will kick off the entire major league baseball schedule, and cause a logjam in that final rotation spot, causing either Park or Happ to start the season in the bullpen. More updates as they come.

The Graduate: J.A. Happ | Born: October 1982 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Oddly enough, the Phillies did not employee any rookie long enough in 2008 to expire his rookie status, but instead of leaving this space blank I thought we could take a quick look at J.A. Happ who could be in line for more playing time in 2009. Happ was valuable in his brief time in Philly because of his versatility, as he made four relief appearances and four starts. His stuff is nothing special (although the fastball is hard to pick up and has good movement) and he allowed a few too many walks (3.98 BB/9), but he limited the hits (7.96 H/9) and struck out his fair share of batters (7.69 K/9)

The Riser: Michael Taylor | Born: December 1985 | Outfielder

You could make the argument for a few names in this spot, which is great news for the organization, but I went with Michael Taylor because he made a bigger jump from where he was in 2007. The hulking outfielder (6-6, 260 pounds) was not even considered to be among the organization’s top prospects entering into 2008, after being drafted out of Stanford in the fifth round of the 2007 amateur draft. He split the season between both A-ball affiliates and hit .361/.441/.554 with a .193 ISO in Lakewood and .329/.380/.560 with a .230 ISO in Clearwater.

The Tumbler: Joe Savery | Born: November 1985 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Joe Savery all but disappeared while pitching in High-A ball in 2008. He was drafted 17th overall out of Rice University in the 2007 draft – and would have been taken higher if not for his history of injuries. Savery’s stuff was not at all like it used to be, especially with his fastball missing oomph. He allowed rates of 10.24 H/9, 3.59 BB/9 and 7.30 K/9. The 2009 season will be huge for Savery, who needs to get back on track to realize his former potential.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Jason Knapp | Born: August 1990 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Jason Knapp was drafted in the second round of the 2008 draft out of a New Jersey high school and immediately made himself known in Rookie ball. Knapp posted a 2.61 ERA in seven appearances and allowed just 26 hits in 31 innings. He also posted rates of 3.48 BB/9 and 11.03 K/9.

The ’09 Sleeper: Drew Naylor | Born: May 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Drew Naylor, an Australian, had a nice first full season in professional baseball, after spending the previous two years in short-season ball. He allowed 69 hits as well as rates of 2.16 BB/9 and 10.00 K/9 in 87.1 A-ball innings, before moving up to High-A where he allowed 86 hits and rates of 3.58 BB/9 and 6.81 K/9 in 78 innings. Naylor must continue to improve his secondary pitches – a curveball and change-up – which complement his low-90s fastball.

Up Next: The Seattle Mariners