Archive for Jason Bay

The Miami Marlins grand experiment hasn’t worked this year, leading to the trades of Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante and Randy Choate before the non-waiver trade deadline. In a perfect world, they wouldn’t have had to trade those players, because they would still be fighting for a playoff spot at this point in the season. But it hasn’t been a perfect world for the Marlins, and one of the major imperfections is the performance of high-priced reliever Heath Bell.

Signed to a lucrative three-year deal this offseason, Bell was supposed to help transform the Marlins into legitimate championship contenders. He has, however, been quite bad, losing the confidence of his manager and the closer role itself, and there haven’t been any signs of him turning things around.

The Marlins have already unloaded a number of valuable assets, but have had trouble finding a suitor for Bell. That’s what tends to happen with relievers who make a lot of money despite being shells of their former selves. Bell was already linked to the Red Sox in a rumor that had him and Hanley heading to Boston in exchange for Carl Crawford. The deal never materialized, but it was a very interesting thought experiment, as the salaries getting swapped were similar and the move represented a change-of-scenery challenge for those involved.

According to a recent Ken Rosenthal report, the Marlins were engaged in another change-of-scenery challenge trade involving Bell this week. This time, they spoke to the Mets about trading Bell and catcher John Buck for Jason Bay. No formal deal was proposed and the idea didn’t truly gain traction, but it again represented an interesting idea. Considering that no other team is going to relieve the Marlins of Bell’s salary, or the Mets of Bay’s, this is a deal worth revisiting before the waiver deadline.

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We’re going to take the time machine all the way back to July of 2008, assessing some of the deals made around the trade deadline.

Dodgers receive: LF Manny Ramirez
Red Sox receive: LF Jason Bay
Pirates receive: RHP Bryan Morris, 2B/3B Andy LaRoche, OF Brandon Moss, RHP Craig Hansen
Winner: Red Sox, Dodgers

It was time for Manny to leave Beantown, and although the deadline seemed to have passed, these three teams were able to work a deal that would shake the baseball world. Jason Bay found the postseason in Boston and had a huge 2009, putting up 5.0 WAR. Manny said hello to L.A.-L.A. land and was unstrasburgly for the Dodgers, hitting .396/.489/.743 for the boys in blue in 2008. The Pirates, well, they decided to go with quantity over quality, and it bit them. After a nice year from LaRoche in 2009 (2.6 WAR), he’s been awful this season (-0.6 WAR), and doesn’t project to be the line drive hitter he once was. Craig Hansen has had health issues and Brandon Moss was below average, but Bryan Morris does seem to be a promising prospect. Still, Pittsburgh could have done better for Bay.
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Angels receive: 1B Mark Teixeira
Braves receive: 1B Casey Kotchman, RHP Stephen Marek
Winner: Angels

The Braves thought they had found Teixeira’s semi-replacement in Kotchman, but instead they got someone who’d hit .267/.346/.378 at first base, never giving Atlanta anything of much substance. Stephen Marek is 26 years old and floundering in Triple-A. Teixeira? He hit .358/.448/.632 for the Angels and helped get them to the playoffs in 2008. They also used his compensation draft pick to take OF Mike Trout, one of the brightest young outfield prospects in the minors today.
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Dodgers receive: 3B Casey Blake
Indians receive: RHP Jon Meloan, C Carlos Santana
Winner: Indians

Poor Paul DePodesta is an Assistant GM while Colletti gets to make moves like this. While Casey Blake has certainly been valuable for the Dodgers, this one has to hurt LA in the long run. Blake racked up 4.6 WAR last year, but his defense has dropped and his offense is stagnant. He’s on the downside of his career. Santana, meanwhile, is a switch-hitting catcher with a stance just like Victor Martinez and serious power. Blake has been a nice player for LA, but Santana looks to out-WAR him over the next few years, and then some.
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Phillies receive: RHP Joe Blanton
Athletics receive: 2B Adrian Cardenas, LHP Josh Outman, OF Matthew Spencer
Winner: Push

For now, the Phillies generally win because flags fly forever. This one is likely to change in the next few years, but the guarantee isn’t enough there that I’ll give it to Oakland quite yet. Outman has produced a 4.09 FIP and 1.6 WAR for the A’s in 2008-09 (he’s been hurt this year). Cardenas is a slick middle infielder who may be a star one day, but until then is no sure thing. At 22, he’s crushed Double-A pitching, but has stagnated in Triple-A, hitting .242/.305/.337 there in 82 games, and just .228/.285/.281 this year. However, he has time to adjust, and once he does he can be dangerous.
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Brewers receive: SP CC Sabathia
Indians receive: OF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, OF Michael Brantley
Winner: Brewers

As well as Mark Shapiro made out in the Blake deal he underperformed in the Sabathia trade. CC helped bring Milwaukee to the playoffs via the Wild Card by throwing seven complete games in seventeen starts with a 1.65 ERA. He was simply outstanding. LaPorta, meanwhile, has struggled in adjusting to the big leagues. In 87 combined games in the majors during his age 24-25 seasons, LaPorta has hit just .240/.301/.377. An OPS of .678 just will not get it done for a guy who was touted for his massive power, especially when he’s a DH trying to play a mediocre outfield and first base.
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Yankees receive: OF Xavier Nady, LHP Damaso Marte
Pirates receive: OF Jose Tabata, RHP Ross Ohlendorf, RHP Jeff Karstens, RHP Daniel McCutchen
Winner: Pirates

While Nady hit pretty well with the Yankees (.270/.319/.469), Marte’s inability to stay healthy and his mediocre pitching gives this to Pittsburgh. The Pirates decided to go with both quality and quantity here, getting a bunch of players who will help them in the long run, highlighted by Jose Tabata. At worst, Pittsburgh can always put Ohlendorf, who majored in Operations Research and Financial Engineering at Princeton, in the front office.

As well all know, yesterday was the July 31 trade deadline for Major League Baseball. Even though it was fairly quiet, a number of interesting prospects traded hands, so let’s take a look at some of them.

Gaby Hernandez, RHP
Age:22 | Level: Double-A/Triple-A
From Florida to Seattle for Arthur Rhodes

Hernandez was demoted to Double-A after posting a 7.24 ERA in 13 Triple-A starts. Only 22, the right-hander still has lots of upside and was originally drafted in the third round of the 2004 draft by the New York Mets. He was sent to Florida in the Paul LoDuca. He was sent to Florida in the Paul LoDuca trade prior to the 2007 season. Hernandez has an excellent curve ball, a low-90s fastball and a change-up. He represents a nice return for a 38-year-old LOOGY.

Andy LaRoche, 3B
Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A/Majors
Traded from Los Angeles to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

LaRoche should finally get the opportunity to play everyday, which he deserves. He possesses the potential to hit 25-30 homers, although it remains to be seen how well he will hit for average. Pittsburgh has done a nice job of turning Jason Bay’s and Xavier Nady’s above-average seasons into quality prospects. Brother Adamand Andy will have a chance to play in the same infield.

Bryan Morris, RHP
Age: 21 | Level: A-ball
Traded from Los Angeles to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

Morris was a first-round selection in the 2006 draft by the Dodgers but missed the 2007 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has been strong this season though by allowing 73 hits and 31 walks in 81.2 innings. Morris has also struck out 72 batters and could be a nice No. 2 starter with a low-90s fastball, curve, slider and change.

Craig Hansen, RHP
Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A/Majors
Traded from Boston to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

The former first round pick out of St. John’s University really needed out of Boston. Although he made it to the Majors shortly after being drafted, he has never been able to stick at the big league level due to below-average command and control. In 2008, he had a 5.58 ERA for Boston in 30.2 innings after allowing 29 hits and 23 walks with 25 strikeouts. Hansen has a mid-90s fastball but is still trying to improve his slider which has slipped a grade or two since college.

Brandon Moss, OF
Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A/Majors
Traded from Boston to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

Moss could get the opportunity to play everyday in Pittsburgh but he is probably a fourth outfielder long-term. The left-handed batter hit .282/.346/.528 in 163 Triple-A at-bats this season and .295/.337/.462 in 78 Major League at-bats. Moss strikes out too much and has just modest power for the corner outfield. He was originally selected in the eighth round out of high school in the 2002 draft.

While surfing through my MLB Extra Innings package the other night I came across a bottom line statistic that piqued my interest: Pirates outfielders had (at the time) a .904 OPS, which led all of baseball. I knew Nate McLouth had gotten off to a scorching start; that Jason Bay had seemingly begun to bounce back from a disappointing 2007; and that Xavier Nady had been producing better than many gave him credit for. What I did not know, however, was that these three have arguably been the most productive outfield in the entire sport.

Looking first at their OPS, the Pirates trio all ranks in the top fifteen amongst major league outfielders. McLouth comes in 5th at .940; Bay in 7th at .932; and Nady in 14th at .886. There are no other threesomes in the top fifteen and, in fact, the only other outfields in the top thirty-five belong to the Cubs and Giants; however, Alfonso Soriano, Mark DeRosa, Kosuke Fukudome, Aaron Rowand, Fred Lewis, and Randy Winn all have a lower OPS than Nady’s .886.

When combined, the Pirates outfield is currently 229-768, in 892 PAs, complete with 55 doubles, 3 triples, 39 home runs, and 114 walks or hit by pitches. Ultimately, they are hitting .298/.385/.535, good for a .920 OPS.

Reverting to WPA furthers their case: all three are in the top twelve amongst major league outfielders. Bay ranks 3rd with a 2.81 WPA; McLouth is 9th at 1.76; and Nady comes in at 12th with a 1.56. Added together, these three have contributed 6.13 wins.

Pat Burrell is far and away the outfield leader, at 4.40, but the next closest Phillies OF Shane Victorino has a -0.96 WPA. Additionally, both Manny Ramirez and J.D. Drew rank in the top ten with a combined 4.64; however, even with Jacoby Ellsbury added in they increase only to 5.26, still almost a full win lower than the Bucs.

If I had to put money on it I would say the Red Sox will surpass the Pirates by the end of the season but, almost halfway through 2008, the 34-37 Pittsburgh Pirates have the most productive outfield in the game.