Archive for Javier Vazquez

A couple of years ago, Sky Andrecheck used the power of hindsight to see if an MLB team could have built a 2009 playoff contender using only players who were available on the free-agent market that previous off-season. The only caveat was that this team had to have a league-average budget. Using actual WAR and salaries, Andrecheck pieced together the perfect 25-man roster — actually 18, since he left his bullpen to fend for itself with replacement-level players — and on Aug. 24, his hypothetical team was on pace to win 96 games. And it all happened for the bargain price of $78.6 million.

While this is an interesting exercise, and one I replicated for the 2008 season, I don’t need to tell you that a pretty strong team could have been built on the backs of 2011 free-agent steals such as Bartolo Colon, Brandon McCarthy, Jhonny Peralta and Ryan Vogelsong. Instead, Mr. Dave Cameron, in his infinite generosity, has given me a budget of $80 million FanGraphs Pesos to piece together a free-agent team for next season, without the benefit of hindsight. In case you’re wondering, the ratio of FanGraphs Pesos to Schrute Bucks is 3:1.

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Perhaps no pitcher over the last decade has relied more on his fastball velocity than Javier Vazquez.

He isn’t a pure flamethrower averaging 94-95 mph on the gun and batters aren’t typically mystified by the separation between his heater and offspeed offerings. But when his velocity drops he turns into a pumpkin. Certain pitchers can lose velocity and remain effective. Tim Lincecum loses four or five miles per hour and pitches better

Vazquez loses 1-2 mph and suddenly resembles sub-replacement level dreck. From the beginning of last season through June 2011, his velocity dropped significantly and the results were predictably poor. The narrative that Vazquez had nothing left was perfectly fueled. He wasn’t posting solid peripherals while simultaneously being victimized by the luck dragon. He legitimately pitched poorly and looked washed up.

None of this is necessarily strange except when considering that his velocity somehow returned in the middle of the season. Since that point, Vazquez looks like his vintage self, and doesn’t look anywhere near done.

Having passed the 2,500 strikeout milestone this season, and continuing to pitch effectively, Vazquez might still pitch another few solid seasons and march towards the 3,000 strikeout holy ground. He would become the Johnny Damon of pitchers in a sense, a player whose stats certainly fall in line with previously established Hall of Fame benchmarks, but who doesn’t really feel like an all-timer.

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Frank Wren’s modus operandi to the 2010 offseason: Replace younger, healthier players with older, more injury prone players. He’s not a doctor, but he plays one in real life. Actually, I’m not here to pick on Wren. You can make arguments for all of his acquisitions this offseason. But seriously, this is getting weird.

Last week Wren traded Javier Vazquez and essentially replaced him with Tim Hudson. Hudson threw a grand total of 42 innings last season for the Braves, and it was enough to convince him to re-sign him to a 3-year/$28 million deal. That pretty much sealed Vazquez’s fate as a Brave, as no one was interested in picking up Derek Lowe’s ugly contract. Vazquez has thrown over 200 innings the past four seasons, averaging 5.3 WAR per season during that span. Hudson has been a 5+ WAR pitcher four different times over his career, and the success rate of Tommy John surgery is pretty good. This might work out just fine, and at least the Braves got a decent return for Vazquez.

The Braves also replaced 30-year-old Rafael Soriano with 38-year-old Billy Wagner, who is also is coming off of Tommy John surgery. Soriano was a 2 WAR reliever in 2009 but has a checkered injury history of his own. Still, he showed us last season what he is capable of. Soriano surprisingly accepted arbitration, but the Braves had no trouble finding a taker for his services, swapping him to Tampa Bay for Jesse Chavez.

Now the Braves are replacing Adam LaRoche with Troy Glaus. Glaus is reported to have signed for a $2 million deal, with incentives. The deal is pending a physical, but the well-respected Dr. Lewis Yocum has already given the thumbs up on Glaus’ surgically repaired shoulder to interested parties. It’s worth noting that it was more than just Troy’s shoulder that limited him to just 14 games last season; he also experienced troubles with his back.

Glaus will play first base with the Braves, which should help health-wise. When he’s right, he is plenty productive. Over his career, his wRC+ is 123, and in his last healthy season Glaus posted a 131 wRC+ with the Cardinals in 2008. For the money, this is a nice upside play in an iffy 1B market for Wren and Co. On the flip-side, they’re obviously showing that they are not counting on a whole lot from Glaus.

I’m seeing a lot of roster-churning going on, but I’m not sure I’m seeing a lot of progress. If anything, it looks like they’ve taken a step back. Jason Heyward could go Cameron Maybin on the Braves, Matt Diaz may not be able to handle regular duty, and Glaus, Wagner and Hudson are all too familiar with the disabled list.

The Braves were in shouting distance of the wild card last year. If they want to send Bobby Cox out a winner, filling their needs with a bunch of injury-risks in hopes of improving seems like an “interesting” way to go about accomplishing that task. Considering some of the alternatives, it might have been the best, but definitely not the safest approach. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

The offseason for the Atlanta Braves was highlighted by the 4-yr deal given to Derek Lowe and shadowed with controversy surrounding deals with Rafael Furcal and Ken Griffey Jr that never came to fruition. Hidden amongst the headlines, their second best move involved trading for Javier Vazquez of the Chicago White Sox.

Vazquez has been written about here on several occasions, primarily due to the fact that he has been the most frustrating pitcher in recent memory. He routinely posts incredible peripherals and marks of controllable skills yet often sees his ERA soar much higher than his FIP. A return to the more pitcher-friendly senior circuit, in theory, could be the cure for such frustration.

Entering Monday’s game against the Mets, Vazquez had toed the rubber on five different occasions, pitching 32 very effective innings. In his time on the mound, Vazquez had issued just eight free passes, fanned 42 hitters, and kept his ERA down to a very solid 3.38. Having allowed just one home run, coupled with the K/BB north of 5.0, Javy’s FIP stood at an incredible 1.70.

He is usually right around a 40% flyball rate/38% groundball rate but had surrendered a pretty penny of line drives right around the corner of 30%. Those line drives will be displaced by flyballs, some of which are going to leave the yard, normalizing both the LD- and HR/FB-rates in the process. Two of those balls left the yard last night against the Mets as Vazquez performed in his typical frustrating fashion.

Javy threw first pitch strikes to 18 of the first 21 hitters he faced and looked dominant. Speeds were mixed, pinpoint control decided to attend his arsenal, and command did not elude the righty. In the sixth inning, Javy sported a 3-0 lead. As dominant as he had looked, I figured this was a sure thing. A quick check of my e-mail and channel flip with the remote later, the Mets had taken a 4-3 lead on the heels of two-run homers from Carlos Beltran and David Wright.

Last night’s game sums up Vazquez’s career perfectly: he looks dominant 85% of the time, leading many to scratch, no, claw their heads as to why he is not a perennial award contender, and allows enough damage in that remaining 15% to inflate his overall numbers.

In 2008, the Atlanta Braves had a very disappointing season. I know, thanks Captain Obvious, but still, many analysts pegged them to at least be competitive and they essentially fell short in that regard. Granted, they lost John Smoltz after five starts, saw 13 replacement level starts from Tom Glavine before losing him for the rest of the season, made up that difference with slightly above replacement level performance from Mike Hampton, and saw Tim Hudson fall prey to Tommy John Surgery. Whew. By the end of the season, the rotation was headlined by Jair Jurrjens and accompanied by Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Hampton.

Here are the values of the primary Braves starters from 2008. Keep in mind that this only includes their numbers as starters, not bullpen appearances:

NAME               IP       FIP      WAR
Jair Jurrjens     188.1     3.59     +3.6
Tim Hudson        141.0     3.83     +2.6
Jorge Campillo    137.0     4.27     +1.9
John Smoltz        27.0     2.32     +1.0
Jo-Jo Reyes       110.1     5.04     +0.5
Mike Hampton       78.0     4.94     +0.5
Tom Glavine        63.1     6.02     -0.3

Put together, these seven pitchers combined for +9.8 wins above replacement. Glavine is not very likely to return in 2009. Hudson will miss most, if not all, of the season recovering from his surgery. Hampton just signed with the Astros. Jo-Jo Reyes was initially rumored as part of the Javier Vazquez-deal, and though his moving did not come to fruition, I think it’s safe to say he is not necessarily part of the Braves 2009 rotation hopes.

That leaves Jurrjens and Campillo. Smoltz will likely return as long as he can physically throw a baseball, leaving two rotation spots open. One of them was filled the other day, as Frank Wren traded a package of prospects for Javier Vazquez. And, if the reports I have been reading are true, and the Braves are offering that guaranteed fifth year, it seems A.J. Burnett will soon round out that rotation. What would this rotation look like compared to last year?

NAME              IP     FIP      WAR
A.J. Burnett     190     3.90     +3.3
Javier Vazquez   200     3.92     +3.3
Jair Jurrjens    160     3.84     +2.9
Jorge Campillo   160     4.12     +2.4
John Smoltz       94     3.57     +2.0

Campillo’s projection was a tad skewed due to Jorge pitching out of the pen and lacking much major league tenure entering this year, as well as the fact that it does not slot him as a full-time starter in 2009. I adjusted it to something in between what the systems are calling for, taking his rotation spot into account. For Smoltz, this assumes he only pitches 2/5 of the season or so. Still, even with 40% of Smoltz, this rotation would be worth 13.9 wins above replacement, a four-win improvement from last season.

What happens if Smoltz comes back and pitches more than these 94 innings though? What if he logs 165 innings at a 3.45 FIP, which would actually be his highest such mark since 1994? In that scenario, Smoltz would be worth +36 runs, or +3.6 wins as opposed to two wins. In that scenario, the Braves would be getting a steal with Smoltz, because there is no way he will sign a 1-yr deal for his fair market value of $18 mil. It would also add another 1.6 wins to the projected 13.9, bringing the Braves potential rotation to +15.5 WAR, an improvement of almost six wins.

We don’t know if Campillo can build on his 2008 performance; if Jurrjens can avoid the sophomore slump; if Smoltz will return and/or stay healthy; or even if Burnett will end up as a Brave. If all of this comes to fruition, however, the Braves could realistically put out an extremely potent rotation.

Over the summer, I wrote a post discussing the idea that Javier Vazquez is the most disappointing pitcher in baseball. Sure, he has had success, and he always has exhibited great stuff and the potential to dominate, but something is missing. After eleven seasons in the big leagues, he has proven himself capable of being productive, but nowhere near the award-winning caliber of production that so many analysts saw in him for a while. His controllable skills and peripheral statistics are always very good, but they just do not seem to translate into extremely solid measures of run-prevention.

Consider this: from 2000-2008, there are only six starting pitchers who made at least 190 starts, with a K/9 above 8.0 and a BB/9 below 3.0, and Vazquez has the highest inclusive ERA of them all at 4.11. For good measure, the others are: Pedro Martinez (2.99), Randy Johnson (3.25), Jake Peavy (3.25), Roger Clemens (3.34), and Josh Beckett (3.78). Something tells me that Vazquez does not exactly belong in the same conversation as these other five all stars and/or future hall of famers. Regardless, the fact remains that he has always been able to strikeout plenty of batters, routinely fanning around, if not more than 200 a season, while vastly limiting his walks.

He has made 32+ starts for nine consecutive seasons, surpassing 200 innings in all but one of those years, when he amassed 198 innings with the Yankees in 2004. In fact, he leads the aforementioned six pitchers in innings pitched by a great margin, trails only Johnson in total strikeouts and complete games, and is virtually tied with Pedro with a 2.24 BB/9; Pedro’s was 2.16, so not much of a difference.

These controllable skills translate into very nice FIP marks throughout his career, but Javy’s ERA consistently exceeds his FIP. And, when his ERA is technically lower than the FIP, it is much closer to being the same than definitively better. This season was no different than many years past, as Vazquez started 33 games, threw for 208.1 innings, posted an 8.64 K/9 and 2.64 BB/9, with a 4.67 ERA and 3.74 FIP. Now, his BABIP rose to .328 this season, from .297 in 2007, which increased his WHIP to 1.32, the highest it has been since 1999. Couple that with a well below average strand rate of 68% and we see that he allowed many more baserunners and was not able to prevent them scoring at the league average rate.

He is generally about even when it comes to percentages of groundballs and flyballs, and he has not lost any velocity on his pitches. In fact, he has actually gained velocity on some offspeed deliveries. Javy’s WPA/LI pegs him at a bit over nine wins above average for his career, and since 2000, he has been above average in that regard in all but one season, which was not the 2004 season with the Yankees. Instead, the following season, his 2005 campaign with the Diamondbacks is considered below average via context-neutral wins.

Vazquez signed a three-year extension that will keep him under contract until 2010, earning $11.5 mm. This appears to be who he really is, and the potential tag should be all but gone by now, which is very disappointing given how durable and effective he seems capable of being. I asked before and I’ll reprise my question: is there any pitcher in recent history as frustrating and/or disappointing as Javier Vazquez? To clarify, I am talking about pitchers that have been virtually as durable as him and not frustrating in the sense that Kerry Wood and Mark Prior have been frustrating and disappointing. Instead, someone who has been out there all the time, has the potential to dominate, still posts great peripherals, but just seems to be missing something from pushing him over the top.

Growing up as a young Phillies fan, prior to my introduction to sabermetrics or advanced analysis, there were a few things I knew, essentially as facts: the Braves would win the division every year, Scott Rolen was an absolutely incredible fielder, and when the Expos had Javier Vazquez on the mound they were going to be tough to beat. I didn’t immerse myself in the numbers but perhaps the scout in me just knew that his ridiculous movement, repertoire and savvy out there on the mound was bound to baffle hitters.

As I became more sabermetrically inclined it hit me as a shock that his numbers were so, well, what they were. They weren’t bad. They weren’t below average. They weren’t average either. His numbers were above average but nowhere near what they should have been based on the way he looked on the mound and on the potential he possessed. Vazquez, as I would grow to understand, is the classic example of a pitcher whose stuff, savvy, and potential are never fully realized, but who will never experience a drought of suitors based on the belief that he can still figure things out.

Here are his ERA and FIP marks since 2000:

2000: 4.05 ERA/3.67 FIP
2001: 3.42 ERA/3.21 FIP
2002: 3.91 ERA/3.68 FIP
2003: 3.24 ERA/3.31 FIP
2004: 4.91 ERA/4.78 FIP
2005: 4.42 ERA/4.06 FIP
2006: 4.84 ERA/3.86 FIP
2007: 3.74 ERA/3.80 FIP
2008: 4.74 ERA/4.02 FIP

Notice anything? Perhaps that his FIP is just about always better than his ERA? Based on his controllable skills, Vazquez is a very, very good pitcher, but for whatever reason this does not always come to fruition in his ERA. Granted, ERA is not the best metric to gauge pitcher performance, but when a guy consistently posts lower FIPs you have to wonder what exactly is going on.

Each year he posts very good K/BB ratios and solid walk and strikeout per nine inning rates. Additionally, from 2001-07, his WHIP ranged from 1.08-1.29, so it isn’t as if he has allowed a plethora of baserunners. His strand rate in that span is around 72%, which is league average, meaning he hasn’t been drastically unlucky in that regard. All told, he has great controllable skills, doesn’t allow many baserunners, and strands around the average rate, yet something is preventing him from being an annual Cy Young Award contender.

He throws a two-seam fastball which is more closely associated with a sinker than a hard heater. Because of this we wouldn’t be wrong to expect good groundball numbers from Javy. Since 2005, however, his GB/FB has been under 1.0, which tells us that he has been allowing more flyballs than grounders. His home runs allowed could be a big factor in preventing him from being more successful: From 2001-2007, of all starters with at least 180 starts in that seven year span, Vazquez has the 6th highest HR/9.

Perhaps something in his location or use of pitches is catalyzing these home runs, or perhaps not. All I know is that he has been a very frustrating pitcher because he just looks like he should be so much better… and he isn’t. Not that he’s bad, by any means, but he should be a perennial all-star. Any thoughts? Or can anyone think of an equally frustrating pitcher?