Archive for Jeremy Hellickson

Back in High School, my pitching coach used to sit down all of the starting pitchers (all three of us) from the varsity squad to have a chat about pitching philosophy. Coach was a former minor league pitcher who flamed out after injury and ineffectiveness, but his love of pitching was obvious, if not a little obsessive. He used to preach about a lot of things, controlling your emotions, mechanics, pacing, etc. But it was always the video I looked forward to.

He’d roll out the rickety old metal stand with a crummy 18 inch TV and antiquated betamax player. Not only had we seen it before, but we would never really understand the usefulness of the demonstration. But it was still fun to watch.

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June is just around the corner and Super-2 arbitration eligibility is going to expire shortly for a number of top prospects. As a result, you could see a few big names in the Majors within the first two weeks of the month. Let’s see how they’re currently doing in the minors.

Stephen Strasburg | RHP | Washington: You know you’re good when people start off a sentence with: “Strasburg actually allowed a run in triple-A…” In nine starts this season split between double-A and triple-A, the right-hander has allowed 22 hits and 10 walks in 45.1 innings of work. He has a 10.42 K/9 rate, as well as a 69% ground-ball rate, which gives a pretty good idea of why he’s been so dominant. The club could definitely use his help, as its best starter (Scott Olsen) is on the DL and Livan Hernandez is not going to keep pitching with a golden horseshoe shoved up his…

Jeremy Hellickson | RHP | Tampa Bay: Brian Joura is looking at the Hellickson situation in a little more depth over at RotoGraphs today. The 23-year-old right-hander has been dealing in triple-A all season long. He’s given up 53 hits and just 12 walks in 58.0 innings. He also has a strikeout rate of 9.64 K/9. A fly-ball pitcher with a 31.5% ground-ball rate, Hellickson has done a nice job avoiding the home-run ball (Just two have left the yard all season). The problem for Hellickson – which is great news for Rays fans – is that there is nowhere to pitch him. The starting rotation is probably the deepest and most talented in Major League Baseball.

Buster Posey | C | San Francisco: The Giants organization and General Manager Brian Sabean clearly don’t think a catcher can improve his defense while playing in the Major Leagues. Either that or it really is about Super-2. This line of thought just might cost the club a playoff berth. Posey’s defense definitely still needs some work behind the plate but he’s not useless back there and he’s hitting .344/.435/.525 with a in 160 at-bats. He’s also creaming lefties to the tune of a 1.222 OPS. Veteran MLB catcher Bengie Molina currently has a wOBA of .332 on the year, which is 14th in the Majors amongst catchers with 100 or more plate appearances (Or in other words, he’s been OK but not great). Why not let Molina catch 60% of the games with Posey handling the other 40%, while also seeing time at first base and/or third base?

Carlos Santana | C | Cleveland: Santana continues to challenge Posey for the title of Best Offensive Catcher in the minors. The Indians prospect is currently hitting .306/.440/.551 with nine homers and five steals in 147 at-bats. He also has 34 walks compared to 28 strikeouts. The switch-hitter swings well from the left side and has a .324 average against right-handed pitching. Santana has also been excellent with runners in scoring position, as his OPS jumps from .875 with the bases empty to 1.269 with men on second and/or third base. Current MLB catcher (and fellow rookie) Lou Marson has a wOBA of .255. Enough said.

Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Pittsburgh: The third baseman caught everyone’s attention early in the season with a power burst but he’s been pretty quiet since that time. Overall, he’s hitting just .248/.333/.497 with 10 homers in 165 at-bats. The left-handed hitter has struggled against southpaws with a .205 average (compared to .264 versus RHPs). Currently third baseman Andy LaRoche hasn’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut. His wOBA is just .311 through 35 games, which is one of the worst rates in the Majors at his position. However, Alvarez’ struggles could keep him in the minors until September.

General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Farm Director: Mitch Lukevics
Scouting Director: R.J. Harrison

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Pitching. Pitching. Pitching. The Tampa Bay organization just keeps churning out mound prospects and the Top 10 list is littered with seven pitchers. The impressive part is that none of the players were taken in the first round; all seven were drafted in the third round or later, save for Lobstein. One other pitcher was signed internationally, while another was acquired in the Scott Kazmir trade with Los Angeles (AL). You can also see signs of excellent scouting when you look at the top prospect, Desmond Jennings, who was acquired out of a small community college in the 10th round.

1. Desmond Jennings, OF, Triple-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 10th round – Alabama Community College
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Injuries limited Jennings to just 24 games in high-A ball in ’08 so few knew what exactly to expect from the rusty prospect in ’09. The outfielder did not miss a beat by jumping to double-A and he hit .316/.395/.486 in 383 at-bats. He also saw his strikeout rate drop from 18.8% to 13.6% while his ISO rate rose from .153 to .170. Jennings also stole 37 bases in 42 attempts in double-A. Promoted to triple-A for his final 32 games, the Alabama native hit .325/.419/.491 with an ISO of .167 and 15 steals in 17 attempts. He also posted a BB/K rate of 1.27 and is clearly on the cusp of the Majors. Currently more of a 10-15 homer threat, there is hope that Jennings can develop at least 20 homer power.

2. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: April 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 4th round – Iowa HS
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Another impact prospect on the verge of realizing his MLB dream, Hellickson blew through both double-A and triple-A in ’09. Only 22, the right-hander allowed just 41 hits in 56.2 innings of work in double-A, while also posting a strikeout rate of 9.85 K/9. He showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.22 BB/9. Of concern, though, is his 35.3% ground-ball rate, which rose by 10% with the move to triple-A. In the senior league, Hellickson allowed just 39 hits in 71.0 innings thanks in part to a crazy-low BABIP of .228. He didn’t walk anyone, either, and posted a base-on-balls rate of 2.35 BB/9. His 10.99 K/9 rate was outstanding. Hellickson could really stand to improve his ground-ball rate further but a strong outfield defense with the likes of B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, and Desmond Jennings will certainly help the fly-ball pitcher.

3. Tim Beckham, SS, Low-A
DOB: January 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

One full season into his career, it’s still far too early to get worried about this former first-overall pick’s offensive showing. The soon-to-be 20-year-old infielder hit a respectable .275/.328/.389 in 491 at-bats in low-A ball. Beckham’s power is obviously MIA at this point, and his ISO rate was just .114 – a slight improvement over his debut number in ’08 of .102. His 33 doubles hint at future power potential. His base running also needs to improve after he was caught 10 times in 23 attempts. Beckham’ strikeout rate (23.5%) is too high for someone with little power and his allergy to walks (6.5%) hurts his potential as a top-of-the-order hitter. There is a lot of added pressure on first-overall draft picks so the wOBA of .327 is clearly a disappointment for many, but ’09 was a solid foundation season. The organization will look for more in 2010.

4. Wade Davis, RHP, Majors
DOB: September 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 3rd round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up, cutter

It seemed like a long time in coming, but Davis finally made his much-anticipated MLB debut. Both Davis and Jacob McGee (slowed by Tommy John surgery) have been on the Rays’ Top 10 lists since ’05. Davis’ stuff has leveled off a little bit since his early days in the system, but he had a solid season in triple-A in ’09 where he allowed 139 hits in 158.2 innings of work. Davis’ strikeout rate was down a bit at 7.94 K/9 but his walk rate was around career-levels at 3.40 BB/9. He was aided somewhat by a BABIP of .289. On the MLB landscape, Davis made six starts and allowed 33 hits in 36.1 innings. He posted a strikeout rate of 8.92 K/9 and showed respectable control with a walk rate of 3.22 BB/9. According to Pitch Type Values, Davis had a lot of success with his 92 mph fastball, as well as his curveball.

5. Matt Moore, LHP, Low-A
DOB: June 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 8th round – New Mexico HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

An eighth-round steal, Moore has posted crazy (and oddly consistent) strikeout numbers in three minor league seasons of 12.84, 12.75, and 12.88 K/9. His walk rate, though, rose from 3.15 in ’08 in short-season ball to 5.12 BB/9 in ’09 at low-A ball. Moore made up for the walks by not allowing many hits: just 86 in 123.0 innings of work. The southpaw did not allow a homer to a left-handed batter and posted a 71.2% ground-ball rate in limited innings. His overall ground-ball rate was 45.8%. Moore has a huge upside, but the loss of control in ’09 is worrisome.

6. Nick Barnese, RHP, Low-A
DOB: January 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

A personal favorite of mine, Barnese got a late jump on the season thanks to an injury. Once he got going, though, the right-hander pitched well in low-A ball. The 21-year-old hurler posted a 3.43 FIP and allowed 56 hits in 74.2 innings. His ground-ball rate was just shy of 52%. He showed OK control, especially considering is loss development time, with a walk rate of 3.01 BB/9. On the negative side, he was aided by a .263 BABIP and his strikeout rate hit a career low of 7.47, down from 11.45 K/9 in ’08. His stuff isn’t electric, but Barnese has a good chance of developing into a middle-of-the-rotation starter, if he can stay healthy.

7. Reid Brignac, SS, Majors
DOB: January 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2004 2nd round – Louisiana HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Brignac’s prospect status has stagnated a bit in the past two seasons in triple-A as he’s posted wOBAs of .311 and .329. This past year, he hit .282/.327/.417 in 415 at-bats. His ascent to the Majors was also slowed by the emergence of Jason Bartlett, who currently mans the shortstop position for the big league club and is the superior fielder and hitter. Brignac will have to wait for A) a trade, B) a position switch (to second?), or C) Bartlett to get injured/become ineffective/too expensive. In truth, Brignac does not offer much power (.135 ISO) or speed (five steals in 10 tries), and he has hit more than .260 just once in the past three seasons. Now 24, it’s up to him to force the organization’s hand with some above-average play.

8. Alexander Colome, RHP, Short Season
DOB: December 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

A casual observer may have taken one look at Colome’s debut numbers in ’08 that featured a 6.80 ERA… and looked the other way. However, his FIP was just 4.49 and he was hurt by a BABIP of .364 (not to mention his 5.05 BB/9 rate). After taking a year to acclimatize himself to North America, Colome also received some better luck in ’09 with a BABIP of .277. His control also improved and his walk rate improved to 3.79 BB/9. The strikeout rate jumped from an already-good 10.10 to 11.13 K/9. Colome allowed just 46 hits in 76.0 innings and he did not have a ball leave the yard. His 50.3% ground-ball rate was encouraging, as was the miniscule 8.7% line-drive rate.

9. Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Short Season
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Arizona HS
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

An ’08 second-round pick, Lobstein did not make his mound debut until ’09 in short-season ball and he established himself amongst the top arms in the system. He posted a 2.95 FIP, while allowing 55 hits in 73.1 innings of work. He gave up just four homers (0.49 HR/9) and his walk rate was solid at 2.82 BB/9. Lobstein also missed a fair number of bats, with a strikeout rate of 9.08 K/9. He’ll likely jump to low-A ball in 2010, where he should spend the full season. Lobstein is not a flame-thrower, but he has middle-of-the-rotation potential thanks, in part, to a solid ground-ball rate (51.2%) and good numbers against right-hander (9.73 K/9, .204 batting-average-allowed).

10. Alexander Torres, LHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-91 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Obtained in the surprising Scott Kazmir trade, Torres narrowly edges first baseman Matt Sweeney in terms of present prospect value amongst those obtained from Los Angeles in the swap. Torres made three minor-league stops in ’09, including seven double-A starts (two with Tampa Bay). He showed some rough edges, though, with a walk rate above 5.00 BB/9. Torres misses a good number of bats, though, with an overall strikeout rate of 8.49 K/9 and his ground-ball rate was excellent at 57.9%. He’s also equally effective against both left-handed (.218 average) and right-handed (.221) batters. Despite his below-average stature (5’10, 160 lbs), Torres showed his durability in ’09 with 155.0 regular-season innings pitched.

Up Next: The Florida Marlins

The Graduate: Evan Longoria | Born: October 1985 | Third Baseman

Tampa Bay did not graduate many rookies in 2008 while racing towards the organization’s first World Series appearance. The club obviously chose quality over quantity as Evan Longoria snatched up the Rookie of the Year award this week after hitting .272/.343/.531 with 27 home runs in 448 at-bats. Longoria posted rates of 9.3 BB% and 27.2 K%, as well as an ISO of .259. Defensively, he made 12 errors with a .963 fielding percentage and showed solid range at third.

The Riser: Jeremy Hellickson | Born: April 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Jeremy Hellickson is quickly becoming the best pitching prospect in the system – not named David Price. The right-hander was originally drafted in the fourth round of the 2005 draft and moved slowly during his first three pro seasons, peaking at A-ball. He jumped on the fast track in 2008, though. After allowing 64 hits in 76.2 innings with a 2.00 ERA in High-A ball, Hellickson was promoted to Double-A, where he made 13 starts. He allowed 84 hits in 75.1 innings but posted excellent rates of 1.79 BB/9 and 9.44 K/9. His biggest issue at Double-A was the home run – he allowed 15 (1.79 HR/9) and must show better command within the strike zone against the more advanced hitters.

The Tumbler: Chris Mason | Born: July 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Chris Mason is not often mentioned in the same breath as Jacob McGee or Wade Davis despite posting solid numbers – well, until 2008. Mason struggled mightily in 2008 and posted a 6.21 ERA during his first shot at Triple-A. The former second round pick out of UNC-Greensboro allowed 144 hits in 108.2 innings of work. He also posted rates of 3.40 BB/9 and 7.45 K/9. Both those rates are respectable, which gives hope for a significant rebound but Mason’s walk rate did increase by about 1.00 BB/9. He may be better suited to a relief role due to an average fastball in the 87-89 mph range.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Jake Jefferies | Born: October 1987 | Catcher

A solid all-around player, Jake Jefferies was nabbed in the third round of the 2008 draft out of college. He had a solid pro debut with a line of .315/.371/.433 in 238 short-season at-bats. Jefferies also posted encouraging rates of 8.1 BB% and 9.2 K% with an ISO of .118. The catcher is currently a solid contact hitter and is working on learning to drive the ball. A left-handed batter, Jefferies is also a solid-average defensive catcher (although he threw out just four of 23 runners attempting to steal in 2008) and he could end up as a third-round steal.

The ’09 Sleeper: Nick Barnese | Born: January 1989 | Right-Handed Pitcher

There are a lot of talented pitchers in the system and Nick Barnese can sometimes get overlooked after spending the past two seasons in short-season ball. However, the right-hander posted solid numbers in 2008: 52 hits allowed in 66 innings pitched, along with rates of 3.27 BB/9 and 11.45 K/9. He also allowed just one home runs all season and posted a FIP of 1.99. The former third round pick features a low-90s fastball that flirts with 95 mph, as well as a slider and a change-up.

Up Next: The San Diego Padres