Archive for Joba Chamberlain

When the Yankees announced their signing of Rafael Soriano, General Manager Brian Cashman admitted that he wasn’t fully behind the move. Rarely has an announcement of a big-ticket signing come with such an admission from the team’s General Manager:

I’m charged with getting the payroll down, and this certainly will help us try to win a championship. There’s no doubt about that, so that’s in the plus column, but I didn’t recommend it, just because I didn’t think it was an efficient way to allocate the remaining resources we have, and we had a lot of debate about that … My plan would be patience and waiting. They obviously acted. And we are better, there’s no doubt about it.

That Cashman didn’t find the signing to be an efficient allocation of resources is particularly telling, as many around baseball have questioned spending so much on a bullpen. Our own Dave Cameron has often talked about overspending on relievers, but this is about spending on the team level. Have the Yankees spent too much on the bullpen for the upcoming season? How does their spending this year stack up against years’ past, and other teams?

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Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore, or second-year, players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the American League East division. Yesterday, we looked at the American League Central.

Ian Kennedy came into the Yankees’ system with a reputation of being a pretty good college pitcher, but he was not quite as highly regarded as he had been coming out of high school (in part because he lost a little bit off the fastball). Despite some grumblings that Kennedy had been an overdraft as a first-round draft pick, the right-hander dominated the minor leagues (He has a career 1.96 ERA in the minors). There is a reason, though, that they call it the “Major Leagues” and Kennedy was hit around in 2008. He posted an 8.17 ERA and allowed 50 hits in just 39.2 innings or work. His walk rate, which was 2.8 BB/9 in the minors, jumped to 5.90 BB/9. Kennedy got off to a solid start in 2009 in four games at triple-A but he then underwent surgery for an aneurysm under his right armpit and will be out until after the All-Star break.

Like Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain was a pretty good college pitcher but he had injuries problems and other teams shied away from him. Big mistake. The Yankees took a risk and have one of the top young arms in baseball, although Chamberlain has still had a few injuries throughout his pro career. In 2008, the right-hander spent time in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. He allowed just 87 hits in 100.1 innings, while posting a 2.60 ERA (2.65 FIP). Chamberlain also posted an excellent strikeout rate at 10.58 K/9. In 2009, he has continued to pitch well, although he has not been as dominant. He has a 3.86 ERA (4.68 FIP) with 56 hits allowed in 63.1 innings of work. His walk rate has risen from 3.50 in 2008 to 4.69 BB/9 in 2009. His strikeout rate has decreased to 8.24 K/9. Chamberlain’s average fastball velocity has decreased each of the past three seasons, from 97 to 95 to 92.4 mph, although part of that can be attributed to spending more time in the starting rotation.

Both Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez came out of almost nowhere in 2008 to provide much-needed innings for the Yankees’ bullpen. Veras, now 28, allowed 52 hits in 57.2 innings and had a strikeout rate of 9.83 K/9. However, he was just designated for assignment after posting a 5.96 ERA in 2009 and seeing his strikeout rate drop to 6.31 K/9, while also struggling with his control and gopher ball tendencies. Ramirez, also 28, had a 3.90 ERA in 2008 and posted a 3.90 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of 10.25 K/9. In 2009, though, he’s regressed to a 5.19 ERA, and rates of 7.79 BB/9 and 8.31 K/9.

As far as first-round picks go, David Purcey has been a huge disappointment. Making his MLB debut at the age of 26, the left-hander posted a 5.54 ERA and allowed 67 hits in 65 innings of work, although he showed some improvements as the year progressed. His rates were 4.02 BB/9 and 8.03 K/9. In 2009, he won an opening-day rotation spot but made just five starts before a demotion to triple-A. In those starts, Purcey allowed a 7.01 ERA, 28 hits in 25.2 innings and posted rates of 6.31 BB/9 and 9.12 K/9.

Southpaw Jesse Carlson was a revelation in 2008 and appeared in 69 games as a rookie. He posted a 2.25 ERA (3.80 FIP) and allowed just 41 hits in 60 innings of work. In 2009, though, Carlson’s ERA has risen to 5.22 (although his FIP is just 3.80) and he’s allowed 31 hits in 29.1 innings. His control is OK (3.15 BB/9 in 2008, 2.76 in 2009) but he hasn’t had the same command of his pitches and his strikeout rate has dropped from 8.25 K/9 in 2008 to 5.83 K/9 this season.

Radhames Liz has a blistering fastball but he’s just one more hard-throwing pitcher that has no idea how to pitch (Daniel Cabrera, anyone?). Liz, 26, was promoted to the Majors in 2008 by the pitching-poor Orioles and was coming off a good half season in the minors, as well as a very good 2007 season at double-A. Liz allowed 99 hits in 84.1 innings, while also posting a 6.72 ERA. He posted rates of 5.44 BB/9 and 6.08 K/9. So far this year, Liz has a 6.09 ERA in triple-A and has a 67.50 ERA in two relief appearances in the Majors. Velocity is not everything.

Another hard thrower, Dennis Sarfate appeared in 57 games for the Orioles as a rookie in 2008. He allowed just 62 hits in 79.2 innings of work and posted rates of 7.00 BB/9 and 9.72 K/9. Sarfate, 28, appeared in just eight games in 2009 and posted an ERA of 6.39 before going on the disabled list with circulation problems in his finger. Right-hander Jim Johnson was also a major contributor to the 2008 bullpen as a rookie. He posted a 2.23 ERA (3.38 FIP) while allowing 54 hits in 68.2 innings of work. In 2009, Johnson, 25, has continued to have success with a 3.07 ERA (3.83 FIP) and 28 hits allowed in 29.1 innings. His strikeout rate has actually risen from 4.98 K/9 in 2008 to 6.14 K/9 in 2009.

A sinker-slider pitcher, Justin Masterson has bounced between the starting rotation and bullpen for the Red Sox during the past two seasons with good success in both roles. The right-hander induces a lot of groundballs and gets his fair share of strikeouts in the process. He posted a 3.16 ERA (4.69 FIP) while allowing 68 hits in 88.1 innings of work in 2008. In 2009, the 24 year old has a 3.88 ERA (3.68 FIP) with 56 hits allowed in 53.1 innings. Masterson has also seen his BABIP allowed increase from .243 in 2008 to .332 in 2009. His walk rate has decreased from 4.08 in 2008 to 3.04 BB/9 this season.

Clay Buchholz burst upon the scene in 2007 but struggled during his rookie season in 2008 by allowing 93 hits in 76 innings of work. He posted a 6.75 ERA and posted a strikeout rate of 4.86 BB/9. He’s really turned things around in triple-A this season, although there is no opening in the Red Sox Major League rotation. Buchholz has a 1.75 ERA (3.27 FIP) in triple-A with 40 hits allowed in 67 innings. His walk rate is just 2.01 BB/9.

Jed Lowrie did a nice job as an injury replacement in 2008 for the Red Sox. He had a triple-slash line of .258/.339/.400 with two homers in 260 at-bats. His strikeout rate of 26.2 K% was a little high for an infielder with modest pop, but he filled in at three positions and provided solid defense. After just five games in 2009 Lowrie required wrist surgery. He’s currently rehabbing.

It was hard for Jacoby Ellsbury to build off his debut in 2007, but he had a solid – albeit unspectacular – first full season in Majors in 2008. He hit .280/.336/.394 with 50 stolen bases in 61 attempts. Ellsbury’s triple-slash line in 2009 is .306/.351/.383 and he’s stolen 25 bases in 31 attempts. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate from 14.4 to 8.9 K/9, while maintaining almost the same walk rate at 6.1 BB%. Ellsbury is proving to be a very solid player, but he’s probably not a star.

Evan Longoria had a huge 2008 season and won the American League Rookie of the Year award. He produced a triple-slash line of .272/.343/.531 and hit 27 home runs. So far this year, Longoria has been even better with a line of .305/.387/.584 with 14 home runs and 58 RBI. His walk rate has increased from 9.3 in 2008 to 11.4 BB% in 2009. His strikeout rate has stayed almost the same at 26.5 K%. Longoria also plays a solid third base. He should be a mainstay in the Rays lineup for many years to come.

Matt Joyce spent the 2008 season with Detroit and hit .252/.339/.510 with 12 homers in 242 at-bats. Traded to Tampa Bay for Edwin Jackson prior to the 2009 season, Joyce, 24, has regressed and has spent most of the season in triple-A. Jackson, though, has had a breakout season for Detroit.

At just 23 years of age, Joba Chamberlain has already proven himself to be an incredibly dominating force. In 124.1 big-league innings, the Nebraska native has posted a 2.49 FIP exceeded by a 2.17 ERA. He has been fanning batters at a rate of 11 per nine innings while keeping his BB/9 right around 3.2. Despite these gaudy numbers, where he belongs is actually discussed much more than what he has done.

The Joba camp is split: some want him in the rotation while others feel he best serves the team in a setup man capacity. As RJ showed not too long ago, outside of closers, most other relievers simply are not worth that many wins. Ryan Madson had a very solid season and produced no more than +1.3 wins. It’s tough to surpass the production of Hong-Chih Kuo, and he managed +2.4 wins.

Last season, Kuo posted a 2.28 FIP in 80 innings. Is Joba’s projection as a reliever really that much better than Kuo’s 2008 performance, even with the added leverage taken into account? Unless the level of important in his innings are absolutely off the charts, I cannot see Joba as anything north of +2.6 wins as a reliever.

For his best utilization to come as a reliever, his projection as a starter would need to be below that output. The projections on our site are quite low for Joba, but a compromise of 150 IP at a 3.68 FIPRA, in his 9.35 run environment, pegs him at +3.8 wins. In other words, if he suffers a vast decline in FIP with the added workload, Chamberlain still ends up over a full win more productive as a member of the rotation.

How would he produce below +2.6 wins as a starter in 150 IP? He would need approximately a 4.40 FIPRA in 150 innings, which translates to a 4.10 FIP, to be exactly +2.6 wins. Basically, the only way it makes any sense to use him out of the bullpen is if the Yankees think Chamberlain can really surpass Kuo’s 2008 season or if, for whatever reason, they feel his numbers will sharply dropoff to a 4.10 FIP. In other words, it would take an awful lot for his usage in the bullpen to make sense.

Just like Johan Santana in 2003, Joba is much too good to be used as a one-inning reliever. If he fails as a starter, fine, put him in during the eighth inning, but do not waste the electric stuff of this 23-yr old phenom without at least trying.

The Graduate: Joba Chamberlain | Born: September 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Perhaps you’ve heard of this graduate. Joba Chamberlain was one of the most talked about young player of 2008 despite splitting the season between the starting rotation and the bullpen. A more defined and constant role in 2009 could help him become one of the best pitchers in the American League. Overall, he allowed 87 hits in 100.1 innings with rates of 3.50 BB/9 and 10.58 K/9. Chamberlain also allowed just five homers (0.45 HR/9). His fastball averaged out at 95 mph, which he threw 65.3 percent of the time. He also utilized a slider, curveball and occasional change-up.

The Riser: Zach McAllister | Born: December 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Zach McAllister rebounded from a bumpy 2007 to post excellent numbers during the 2008 season. He allowed 133 hits in 151 innings split between two A-ball affiliates. In 14 starts in the second half of the season at High-A ball, McAllister posted a 1.83 ERA with rates of 1.32 BB/9 and 6.29 K/9. He showed solid control, but his low strikeout numbers temper his ceiling a bit. As a sinker baller, though, he relies on pitching to contact. McAllister has a solid change-up but needs to improve his slider.

The Tumbler: Alan Horne | Born: January 1983 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Alan Horne’s 2008 season was ruined by injuries including a bicep strain, which caused him to miss a good chunk of the first half of the season. Horne, who was on the cusp of a Major League promotion before the injuries, will have to wait until 2009 for his debut. In 2008, during three rehab starts in High-A ball, Horne posted an ERA of 23.14. In eight Triple-A appearances, he allowed 35 hits in 32 innings of work and posted rates of 6.19 BB/9 and 6.75 K/9.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Corban Joseph | Born: October 1988 | Shortstop

Corban Joseph was nabbed in the fourth round of the 2008 draft as an offensive-minded shortstop out of a Tennessee high school. He had a solid pro debut and posted a line of .277/.358/.434 with an ISO of .157 in 159 Rookie Ball at-bats. His rates were: 11.2 BB% and 15.1 K%. Eventually, Joseph may need to move off shortstop, but he should have enough power to play third base in the Majors.

The ’09 Sleeper: Austin Romine | Born: November 1988 | Catcher

It’s easy for Austin Romine to get overlooked as he spent time in 2008 splitting the backstop position with one of the Yankees’ top hitting prospect – Jesus Montero. Romine more than held his own, though, with a line of .300/.340/.437 with a .138 ISO in 407 at-bats. He needs to be a little more patient at the plate with a BB% of 5.8, but his strikeout rate was a solid 13.8 K%. He has a much better chance of sticking behind the plate than Montero, although he allowed 18 passed balls in 54 games. He also threw out 20 of the 98 runners attempting to steal a base.

Up Next: The Houston Astros

Money may not buy happiness, but it does allow you the flexibility to take some risks. The New York Yankees have taken a few gambles in recent years during the annual amateur draft. The most-publicized risk was drafting North Carolina State right-hander Andrew Brackman (and paying him $3.35 million), who needed Tommy John surgery before he would even throw one professional pitch.

Another move one year earlier, though, that flew under the radar was drafting college reliever Mark Melancon out of the University of Arizona. Melancon was widely considered the best – and most advanced – college reliever in the draft. But he was suffering from a strained elbow ligament, and whispers of Tommy John surgery persisted.

Melancon fell out of the first round of the draft and was snapped up by the Yankees with the 284th selection in the ninth round. The Yankees gave him third round money ($600,000) and sent him to the New York Penn League. Melancon had not pitched since April due to the elbow injury and he lasted just 6.2 innings in pro ball before being shut down to go under the knife.

The 2007 season was a year of rehab for the right-hander but he came back strong in 2008. Melancon began the season in High-A ball and allowed 26 hits and six walks in 25.1 innings of work. He also struck out 20. Melancon was then promoted to Double-A where he worked 49.2 innings and allowed 32 hits and 12 walks. He also struck out 47 and induced two groundball outs for every flyball out. Melancon then finished out the regular season in Triple-A. He allowed just 11 hits and four walks in 20 innings. He struck out 22 batters.

Overall, in his first season back from surgery, Melancon was 8-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 95 innings. He allowed 69 hits and just 22 walks, which is impressive considering command is supposed to be the last thing that returns after Tommy John surgery. It’s clear Melancon is close to being a large part of the future of the Yankees’ bullpen.

*The 2006 draft was a huge help to the Yankees’ pitching depth, as the organization also scooped up Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Zach McAllister, George Kontos, Dellin Betances and Daniel McCutchen.