Archive for Jonathan Gaston

General Manager: Ed Wade
Farm Director: Tal Smith
Scouting Director: Bobby Heck

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

What a change. After being one of the absolute worst systems in all of baseball for a few years, we’re finally seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. There is one note of caution to be had with the prospects in the system, though. Having a minor-league affiliate in Lancaster (High-A) means that many offensive prospects’ numbers will be inflated (see Koby Clemens) by playing there, while pitchers’ numbers will be skewed negatively. That extreme hitter’s park makes judging prospects all that much harder.

1. Jason Castro, C, Double-A
DOB: June 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Stanford University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With the re-emergence of J.R. Towles, an underrated player, and Castro’s rapid development, the organization could have a very nice problem, and in short order. The problem could be solved quite easily, though, with a platoon of the two catchers. Eventually, Castro’s bat will probably justify more at-bats as he’s hung in quite well against southpaws in pro ball (albeit in a rather small sample size). Overall in ’09, Castro hit .293/.362/.385 in 239 double-A at-bats. He began the year in high-A ball and got a lot of people excited with a .208 ISO, but that was likely the result of playing in Lancaster. His ISO rate dropped to .092 in double-A and it was just .109 in ’08. Even so, he projects to be an above-average offensive catcher. He threw out 59% of base runners attempting to steal against him in high-A, but that number dropped to 28% after his promotion.

2. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Low-A
DOB: October 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental first round – South Carolina HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

The teen-aged Lyles had an excellent season in low-A ball with a FIP of just 2.42. His strikeout rate of 10.39 K/9 was also impressive and his walk rate of 2.36 BB/9 was just as encouraging. The 44% ground-ball rate was OK and he did a nice job of keeping balls in the park with just five homers allowed (0.31 HR/9). Overall, Lyles allowed 134 hits in 144.2 innings. He was particularly effective against left-handed hitters and he posted a strikeout rate of 11.55 K/9 with just one homer allowed in 55.1 innings. The move up to Lancaster will be a huge challenge for the youngster, and his mental toughness will likely be challenged.

3. Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, Double-A
DOB: April 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Taiwan)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up, splitter

The organization does not deal in the international market as much as it used to, but the club has received good value from some of its choices, such as Lo and Gervacio. Lo reached double-A in his North American debut and could help out in the Houston bullpen in 2010. The right-hander began the year in high-A and he allowed just 10 hits in 25.1 innings. He overpowered hitters and had a strikeout rate of 12.79 K/9. Lo, 23, will need to clean up his control after posting a walk rate of 4.62 BB/9 in both high-A and double-A. In 39.0 double-A innings, he gave up just one homer.

4. Ross Seaton, RHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Seaton was a highly-regarded amateur who fell to the Astros in the third round due to signability concerns (He was committed to the Tulane University). His first full pro season was modest. He posted a 4.08 FIP in low-A and allowed 137 hits in 136.2 innings of work. Seaton showed solid control with a rate of 2.57 BB/9, but his strikeout rate was just 5.80 K/9 and his stuff is better than that. He needs to learn to set up hitters better, and he needs to improve the command of his breaking ball. Seaton will need to improve his ground-ball rate (40%) if he’s going to survive the trip to Lancaster.

5. Sammy Gervacio, RHP, Majors
DOB: January 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2002 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options:
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

With a strong showing in 21 MLB games in ’09, Gervacio likely earned himself a good shot at beginning the 2010 season in Houston’s bullpen. The right-hander posted a 2.62 FIP in 21 innings and allowed just 16 hits. His strikeout rate of 10.71 was impressive, as was his ground-ball rate of 57.4%. If he can keep those rates up, he could be a monster – as well as a future closer. Gervacio’s control has been respectable over the past few seasons and he posted a walk rate of 3.43 BB/9 in the Majors. Hitters clearly had trouble making contact with the reliever: His contact rate of 61% was almost 20% below league average, but he needs to throw more first-pitch strikes out of the bullpen (51.8%, league average was 58.2%).

6. Jonathan Gaston, OF, High-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 7th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Just call him Mr. Lancaster. The outfielder came out of no where in ’09 to hit .278/.367/.598 with a .320 ISO but look at the splits before getting too excited. Gaston hit .309/.399/.695 at home in Lancaster and just .249/.339/.510 in the road. He needs to make some adjustments against southpaws after hitting just .228/.335/.443. He’s also going to have to improve upon his 31.7% strikeout rate. On the plus side, he showed good base running with 14 steals, 15 triples and 119 runs scored. His walk rate of 12.1% was also nice to see. Gaston definitely has some talent, but he’s not going to repeat his .410 wOBA season in double-A.

7. Jay Austin, OF, Low-A
DOB: August 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Atlanta HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The Astros drafted Austin knowing that he would require some patience, but he’s already making good on the investment. After posting a strikeout rate of 32.5% in his debut, Austin reduced it to 19.6% in low-A ball in ’09. His OPS also rose from .512 in ’08 to .680 this past season, with an overall line of .267/.320/.360. In 297 at-bats, the outfielder posted an ISO of just .093 so power is clearly not a part of his game right now. He stole 23 bases but was caught 13 times, so he needs to improve his reads (He was also caught six times in 20 tries in ’08).

8. T.J. Steele, OF, High-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Drafted as a raw college project, Steele has benefited from crazy-high BABIPs of .400+ in each of his first two pro seasons. Overall in ’09, Steele hit .345/.385/.562 in 194 at-bats. His power output was positively affected from Lancaster, and he slugged .216. Injuries were a problem for Steele, as he appeared in just 50 games. He also needs to show more patience at the plate (4.4%) and use his speed on the base paths more effectively (eight steals in 14 tries… but he was hampered by hamstring issues). A healthy Steele should move up to double-A in 2010 where we’ll get a better feel for his abilities.

9. Brad Dydalewicz, LHP, Low-A
DOB: March 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 8th round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Dydalewicz shows a lot of potential and he had a nice first full season in the minors in ’09. The southpaw allowed just 93 hits in 110.0 innings, in part due to a low .273 BABIP. His walk rate was a little high at 4.17 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was low at 6.38 K/9. Dydalewicz did a nice job of limiting the home run (0.49 HR/9) and he had an impressive ground-ball rate at 54%. He’ll probably need to log quite a few innings before he’s MLB-ready, but the 19 year old has a nice ceiling if everything clicks.

10. Collin DeLome, OF, Double-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 5th round – Lamar University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

DeLome is another one of those raw, athletic college players that Houston just seems to love. He’s struggled to hit for average over the past two seasons, but his power has played really well. This past season, DeLome hit .255/.323/.465 with an ISO of .210 in 467 at-bats. His strikeout rate of 30.2% needs to be trimmed and he needs to clean up his base running after getting caught eight times in 23 tries. The left-handed hitter batted .225/.315/.432 against southpaws and .270/.331/.480 against right-handers. He could contribute in Houston in 2010.

Up Next: The New York Yankees

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Last Monday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. Tuesday, we had a gander at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster and on Wednesday we viewed the Mesa Solar Sox roster. Yesterday, we looked at the Peoria Javelinas roster and today we’re viewing the Peoria Saguaros.

The Peoria Saguaros (Click HERE for the entire roster)
Atlanta, San Diego, Houston, Cleveland, Cincinnati

Craig Kimbrel | RHP | Atlanta
Kimbrel was a busy man in 2009, making stops at four levels for Atlanta, so the AFL will be his fifth of the year. Combined in 2009, the reliever allowed 30 hits in 60 innings pitched. He also struck out 103 batters and walked 45. Despite his minor-league dominance, the lack of control is going to be an issue in the Majors so he has some work to do.

Chia-Jen Lo | RHP | Houston
Lo had a similar season to Kimbrel, although he pitched at just two levels. He allowed 40 hits in 64.1 innings of work with 75 strikeouts and 33 walks. His walk rate of 4.62 in double-A is too high but this was just his first year in North America after signing out of Taiwan last year.

Mike Minor | LHP | Atlanta
A 2009 first round draft pick, Minor was a bit of a reach for Atlanta’s first selection, but the club needs some upper-level pitching depth and the lefty should move quickly. He made four brief starts in pro ball after signing, allowing 10 hits and no walks in 14 innings of work. He also struck out 17 batters.

Jason Castro | C | Houston
It would not be shocking to see Castro behind the dish for Houston by mid-2010. The 2008 first-round pick had a very nice first full season in the minors and spent the last half of the year in double-A. He hit with good power in high-A ball but his ISO dropped from .208 to .092 after his promotion out of the extremely good hitter’s league and park.

Matt McBride | C | Cleveland
The Indians organization is not 100% sure what it has with McBride, who missed most of 2008 with an injury. He creamed high-A pitching but was old for the league. Upon a promotion to double-A, his batting average and on-base percentage plummeted but he still showed good power potential and struck out just 11.8% of the time. His BABIP can be partially blamed for his average.

Yonder Alonso | 1B | Cincinnati
Alonso struggled with injuries in 2009 but still played 28 games in double-A with a triple-slash line of .287/.368/.446. He doesn’t show as much in-game power as some of the other big-time first base prospects, but he’s a better overall hitter than most.

Freddie Freeman | 1B | Atlanta
Freeman, like Alonso, is a not a legit 30 home run hitter, but he has a chance to play good defense and hit .300 a few times with 20 homers. He was too advanced for high-A ball, where he began the year at the age of just 19. He finished up by hitting .248/.308/.342 in 149 double-A at-bats and should head back to Mississippi in 2010.

Lance Zawadzki | SS | San Diego
A fourth-round pick out of a smaller NAIA college in 2007, Zawadzki was selected higher than many expected but he rewarded the organization with a solid 2009 season. He split the year between high-A and double-A and showed more power at the lower level. Overall, he hit 15 homers in just under 500 at-bats. He won’t be a star, but he could be an average regular with 10-12 homers and 10-15 steals.

Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston
Houston pulled the short straw last winter and ended up with Lancaster as its high-A affiliate. The park is perhaps the best hitter’s park in all of pro ball and Gaston enjoyed his time there immensely. He hit .280/.368/.602 with 35 homers and 119 RBI. His ISO was an incredible .322 but he struck out 31.7% of the time.

Chris Heisey | OF | Cincinnati
Heisey, 24, had a solid season in 2009 and split the year between double-A and triple-A. He has an outside shot of being the Reds’ fourth outfielder in 2010. Combined, Heisey hit 22 homers and stole 20 bases, while hitting more than .300. He is not a surefire bet to keep hitting for that kind of power in the Majors.

Jason Heyward | OF | Atlanta
Heyward could very well end up as the Minor League Baseball Player of the Year. The outfielder spent most of the year as a 19 year old and he started out in high-A and ended the year in triple-A. In between, he smoked double-A pitching and put up a line of .352/.446/.611 with more walks than strikeouts in 162 at-bats. He could be playing regularly in the Majors before his 21st birthday.

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in Isolated Power (ISO) and wOBA (For an explanation on this stat, check out HERE) among the three high-A leagues: the California League, the Carolina League and the Florida State League. I want to add a caution with this league, though. The California League, is an extreme hitter’s league, so many of the numbers are inflated. The Carolina League is also an above-average hitter’s league, although not as potent as the Cal League. The Florida State League is widely considered a pitcher’s league, so the offensive numbers will not be as gaudy.

.366- Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston

Gaston has absolutely exploded this season, thanks in part to the launching pad that is Lancaster (and the league in general). The strikeout rate is worrisome (28.2 K%) but the left-handed hitter is also walking at a respectable rate (12.3 BB%). Gaston, 22, has an intriguing mix of power (27 HR) and speed (12 SB, 13 3B). He was barely a blip on the radar entering the 2009 season.

.300- Joseph Dunigan | 1B/OF | Seattle

If you need proof of the power of the California League, look no further than Dunigan. He had a batting average of .231 in short-season ball in 2007, and .240 in low-A ball last year. This season the 23-year-old is hitting .303 and has hit more homers (22) than he did in his first two seasons combined (18) and in half the at-bats. On the plus side, his walk rate has improved, while the strikeout rate dropped from 32.5 in 2008 to 27.8 K% this season.

.279- Alex Liddi | 3b | Seattle

Liddi could not even hit .250 in his past two full seasons in low-A ball. A move to high-A ball, though, has seen his average jump from .244 to .352 (a difference of .108). His ISO also increased from .116 to .279. A raw player when he signed, Liddi is still only 20 years old, so some of his improvement is probably for real, but he’s not THIS good. Double-A will be a real test for him, especially with a walk rate of 7.8 BB%.

.459- Thomas Neal | OF | San Francisco

Along with Gaston, Neal is one of the biggest legitimate breakout candidates in the California League. The 21-year-old outfielder spent the 2008 season rounding back into shape after missing almost all of 2007 with a shoulder injury. His power and batting average have certainly received a boost from the league, but Neal has good plate discipline for his age (10.3 BB%, 19.6 K%) and he had good power numbers in the South Atlantic League last season.

.456- Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston

See above.

.442- Logan Forsythe | 3B | San Diego

James Darnell has received a lot of attention for his strong offensive season. However, Forsythe was drafted in the same year and has had a very nice offensive season as well – and one level higher than Darnell. After a strong first half in the Cal League, Forsythe, 22, was promoted to double-A (thus making room for Darnell in Lake Elsinore’s lineup) and he’s continued to hit above .300 with a .160 ISO and a .400 wOBA in 22 games.

.284- Cody Johnson | 1B/OF | Atlanta

Baseball players don’t come much stronger than Johnson, but the 20-year-old has significant holes in his swing. As a result, despite massive power numbers, career strikeout rate of 37% is a huge red flag for this future quad-A slugger.

.239- Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Pittsburgh

Alvarez has received a lot of attention for his low batting average, high strikeout totals and lack of conditioning, but despite everything that’s gone wrong with his season, he’s still hitting for impressive power. The 22-year-old former first-round pick received a surprise promotion to double-A recently and he is currently hitting .280 in 22 games. His power has also remained strong, although his walk rate of 5.7% and his strikeout of 34.1% suggest his numbers are set to nosedive.

.232- Brandon Waring | 3B | Baltimore

Obtained last season (along with Justin Turner) from Cincinnati in the Ramon Hernandez trade, Waring is a power-hitting third baseman who will likely struggle to hit for average in the Majors (and possibly triple-A). He’s actually done a nice job to trim his strikeout rate from an average of 33% in his first two seasons to 25.6% in 2009 at high-A ball.

.423- Kris Watts | C | Pittsburgh

Wow, a catcher with a wOBA of .423! But don’t get too excited. Watts is playing in high-A ball at the age of 25, and it’s his second straight season at the level. You also have to like his BB/K rate of 1.55.

.396- Cody Johnson | 1B/OF | Atlanta

See above.

.388- Lonnie Chisenhall | 3B | Cleveland

Chisenhall got off to a scorching start in April and May before fizzling in June (although his power remained consistent). He’s begun picking things up again and he’s still having a well-above-average offensive season, despite the off month. A little more patience at the plate (8.8 K%) could help him take his game to the next level.

.218- Dominic Brown | OF | Philadelphia

One of the names that might get dangled in a potential Roy Halladay trade, Brown is a dynamic young outfielder whose season was slowed by an injury. Despite that, he is showing increased (and somewhat unexpected) power potential in a league where it’s tough to hit for power. Brown also has the ability to steal 30 bases and play above-average defense.

.199- Chris Parmelee | OF/1B | Minnesota

A former first-round pick, Parmelee has moved slowly and quietly through the Minnesota organization. The left-handed hitter is already four years into his pro career, but he’s still just 21 years old. After struggling to hit above .240 in the past two seasons, Parmelee is up to .261 in 2009 while showing good power – and he’s trimmed his strikeout rate by 10% to 25.4%.

.198- Ike Davis | OF/1B | New York NL

Davis got off to a brutal start to his pro career in 2008 after being a first round draft pick. Last season he hit zero homers in 215 short-season at-bats and had an ISO of just .070. This season, though, he’s hit seven homers in high-A and another five since his promotion to double-A (27 games). It remains to be seen how well he’ll hit for average.

.410- Dominic Brown | OF | Philadelphia

See above.

.404- Darin Mastroianni | OF/2B | Toronto

Mastroianni had a terrible first full season in low-A in 2008 as he struggled to receive playing time behind some of the Jays’ top high school draft picks from the 2007 draft. He even moved to centerfield at one point, from his natural second base position. The speedster has blossomed this season and looks like a potential big-league utility player in the Ryan Freel mold. Mastroianni stole 32 bases in 39 attempts, before moving up to double-A, where he’s nabbed 13 bags in 14 tries.

.390- Cody Cipriano | 2B | Tampa Bay

Cipriano’s career has actually paralleled Mastroianni’s almost eerily. However, the Rays prospect doesn’t have the Toronto farmhand’s speed. Cipriano does, though, have a little more strength, although it’s gap power so he looks like a future utility player.