Archive for Jordan Schafer

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Jordan Schafer, OF
A lot was expected from the 23-year-old Schafer in ’09, but he hit just .204/.313/.287 in 167 at-bats and ended up back in the minors. His 63 strikeouts in 167 at-bats (37.7 K%) were a huge issue, but he did post a walk rate of 13.9 BB%. His contact rate of 64.6% was well below the league average of 80.5%. Defensively, he had some issues with his range in center field and, overall, he posted a WAR of -0.3. Schafer could very well need some more seasoning in triple-A before he’s ready for another shot at a full-time role in the Majors.

The Riser: Adam Milligan, OF
An injury prevented the ’08 draft pick from making his pro debut prior to the ’09 season. Milligan rose all the way to high-A in his first full season and he just narrowly missed the Top 10 list for the Braves. The outfielder hit .345/.393/.589 in 197 low-A at-bats and received a six-game trial in high-A, as well. Milligan, 21, displayed intriguing left-handed power (.244), but he needs to be a little more patient at the plate with a walk rate of 5.7 BB%. On the year, he held his own against southpaws with an .870 OPS, but he was even better against right-handers: 1.013 OPS. Milligan’s debut numbers were very impressive, but he was aided by a .394 BABIP.

The Tumbler: Cole Rohrbough, LHP
Rohrbough looked to be on the fast-track after solid numbers in his first two minor league seasons. Things fell apart a bit for him in ’09 as he allowed 129 hits in 117 innings of work in high-A. His ERA was 5.77 but his FIP was just 4.34. He posted a walk rate of 3.69 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.69 K/9. Rohrbough struggled with his command and allowed too many fat pitches, which resulted in an increased HR/9 rate to 0.92. The Braves could be aggressive with Rohrbough, 22, and move him up to double-A in ’10 given that his numbers were not quite as bad as they looked on the surface. He features an 89-93 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

The ’10 Sleeper: Dimaster Delgado, LHP
Another left-handed pitcher, Delgado does not throw as hard as Rohrbaugh. His fastball currently sits at 86-90 mph but he projects to add velocity as he fills out. The southpaw also features a curveball and change-up. In ’09 at low-A ball, Delgado allowed 89 hits in 99.2 innings of work, while showing good control with a walk rate of 2.35 BB/9. He also posted a strikeout rate of 9.39 K/9 and did a nice job of limiting the home-run ball (0.36 HR/9). If he can add some velo and/or improve his ground-ball rate, Delgado could see his numbers improve even more.

Bonus: Erik Cordier, RHP
Highlighted in the ’08 series as a potential breakout candidate after returning from surgery, Cordier struggled with his control in ’09. At high-A ball, the right-hander posted a walk rate of 5.50 BB/9 while allowing 115 hits in 121.0 innings. His strikeout rate was just 6.55 and his stuff has not come all the way back to its pre-surgery form. Although he posted a 3.87 ERA, his FIP was 5.20. Cordier, a former Royals prospect, will hopefully continue to show improvements in ’10.

This will not be a lengthy or detailed post discussing what sample sizes are or why they carry importance, but rather a personal plea for fans and readers, especially of this site, to avoid overestimating talent based on a few good games in April. While we can deny ever falling prey to this issue, it is human nature to try and glean information from any and all angles, for whatever reason, be it an edge in a fantasy league or an article claiming why Player A should get more playing time/get a contract extension/get a date with Alyssa Milano.

Last night, Jordan Schafer kickstarted his major league career with a home run in his first at-bat. He followed it up with a single to centerfield. On the night, the 22-yr old rookie went 2-3, with an intentional walk. Seeing as the Braves/Phillies matchup was the first of the season, on national television, I would not be surprised in the least if fantasy players flocked to free agent pools to put in a claim for Schafer’s services. Now, Schafer may very well be a fine major league player but situations like this arise all too often, and they are particularly annoying. A player starts his season off on the right foot, fantasy players get all gooey-eyed, and then call the player a fluke upon dropping him in June on the heels of a .230/.310/.360 slash line.

Schafer could defy his projections and post excellent numbers this season but that is not the point. The point is that decisions should not be based on small sample sizes and we need to admit this is a problem before ever moving past it. It is one thing to discuss how a player has performed in a certain 10-game span, like during Lance Berkman’s ridiculous stretch last season but it is a completely different animal to use such discussions or small samples as the basis for definitive performance claims. On a teamwide level, going crazy over Schafer right now would be equivalent to trying to decipher what is wrong with the Phillies. One measly game has been played. Let’s not go crazy over players until we at least know a little bit about them.

In fact, as Dave mentioned this afternoon, the Nationals decided to forego placing Elijah Dukes, their best player, in the starting lineup because he had a poor spring training. I honestly don’t even know how to respond to that decision. But anyways, there you have it, my plea to avoid overestimating value based on small sample sizes. Waiting until the 50 game mark might be too much to ask, but at least get past 20 games before you claim having advanced knowledge about the causes of a player’s performance this season.

The Graduate: Gregor Blanco | Born: December 1983 | Outfielder

Gregor Blanco was hardly a heralded prospected coming into the 2008 season; he did not even make Baseball America’s Top 30 Braves prospect list. The Venezuelan, who signed at age 16, paid his dues in the minors and did not make his debut until this past season when he appeared in 144 games for the Braves. Blanco is going to have to use his legs more – he slugged just .309 with an ISO of .058 – if he is going to continue to play regularly. He needs to steal more than the 13 bases he swiped in 2008. One of the most promising things about Blanco is that, as a player with zero power, he understands the importance of getting on base and he walked 74 times (14.7%).

The Riser: Tyler Flowers | Born: January 1986 | Catcher

The Braves liked Tyler Flowers so much that the organization drafted him twice – in the 27th round of the 2004 draft and in the 33rd round of the 2005 draft. He finally relented and became a Brave in 2006 as a draft-and-follow. He has a ton of potential with the bat with a three-year career line of .291/.400/.488. He posted a .206 ISO in High-A ball this year and has tremendous power potential. Like Blanco, Flowers also understands the importance of getting on base and walked 98 times (19.2%) this season. Defensively, the 6’4” backstop is a good receiver but is still learning to call a game. He threw out 43 of 155 base stealers (28%).

The Tumbler: Jordan Schafer | Born: September 1986 | Outfielder

By now, we likely all know that Jordan Schafer made some bad choices and paid for it by making a late start to his 2008 season. He struggled through the rest of the season and never truly looked comfortable at the plate and was inconsistent. He hit .269/.378/.471 in 297 Double-A at-bats, but showed some power potential with an ISO of .202. Schafer is attempting to make up for lost time this winter by playing in the Mexican winter league, where he is currently hitting .343/.395/.400 in 35 at-bats.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Zeke Spruill | Born: September 1989 | Right-Handed Pitcher

There have been five players in Major League history named Zeke, and Ezekiel Spruill is looking to become the six. Drafted 70th overall in 2008, Spruill went 7-0 in his debut in the Rookie League. He pitched 40 innings and allowed 42 hits with rates of 4.00 BB/9 and 7.20 K/9. He did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and allowed just one home run.

The ’09 Sleeper: Erik Cordier | Born: February 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Erik Cordier was one of the Royals’ brightest, young pitching prospects before being derailed by Tommy John surgery. The Royals sold low on Cordier and shipped him to the Braves for Tony Pena Jr., who became the starting shortstop for the club in 2007 but was brutal in 2008. Cordier missed all of 2007 (and 2005 due to a knee injury) but returned to the mound this season for 11 starts. He was not overly sharp, but his fastball was around 92-93 mph (He was touching 98 mph before the injury) and his secondary pitches were not sharp (He showed a plus change-up before the injury). With another year separating him from the surgery, Cordier could be poised for a breakout 2009 season.

Up Next: The Kansas City Royals

The Mississippi Braves players did not like to make things easy on themselves in 2008. The club started off the year with a 6-20 record in April but still managed to make the 2008 Southern League (Double-A) playoffs. The Braves then went on to win the league championship over the prospect-studded Carolina Mudcats, but all three wins occurred in extra innings.

The top hitters in the playoffs were infielder J.C. Holt (.323), first baseman Kala Ka’aihue (.364), and Jordan Schafer (.333). Holt, 25, was a former star outfielder at Louisiana State University and he actually began the season in Triple-A, where he struggled and hit just .212/.333/.228 in the first month. Upon his demotion to Double-A, Holt picked things up and hit .285/.351/.397 with 22 stolen bases in 393 at-bats.

Ka’aihue’s first taste of Double-A in 2007 was bitter as he hit just .127/.221/.186 with 51 strikeouts in 118 at-bats after dominating High-A ball earlier that season. The 2008 season was a different story though as Ka’aihue hit .274/.417/.457 with 14 homers and 88 walks in 376 at-bats. His brother Kila Ka’aihue, 24, also had a breakout season by hitting 37 homers and driving in 100 RBI before earning a September call-up to the Kansas City Royals.

Schafer, considered the Braves top hitting prospect as 2007 wore down, began the year on a low note with a suspension that was handed down in the spring. He missed the first two months of the season and had an up-and-down year. Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 with 10 homers and 12 stolen bases in 297 at-bats. He picked things up in August by hitting .323 with six homers and carried that momentum into the playoffs.

All three players should move on to Triple-A for the 2009 season, one step away from realizing their dream of a big league career.

Jordan Schafer’s prospect status took a hit at the beginning of the season when the promising outfielder was suspended 50 games for the use of HGH. The issue could not have come at a worse time from a career standpoint, as Schafer had recently been named the top prospect in the Atlanta Braves system, according to Baseball America. That honor was due to a breakout 2007 in which he hit .312/.374/.513 in 565 at-bats split between High-A and Double-A ball.

Currently at Double-A, Schafer has yet to reach those lofty numbers but he is holding his own considering the amount of development time he lost in April and May. Upon his return in June, the left-handed outfielder hit .274 with seven doubles and three homers in 95 at-bats. Schafer stumbled in July, though, and managed to hit just .228.

He has picked himself back up in August and currently has a .348 average with five homers in 66 at-bats. Overall, he is hitting .269/.369/.466 with nine homers in 264 at-bats. He has also walked 41 times and struck out 79 times. The biggest flaw in the youngster’s game at this point is his work against southpaws, as he is hitting just .198/.314/.297 with seven extra base hits against them in 101 at-bats.

Regardless, Schafer is just 21 years old and turns 22 in September, which gives him lots of time to improve upon his weaknesses and climb back to the top of Atlanta’s system.