Archive for josh thole

I suppose we shouldn’t have been surprised by reports that the New York Mets are going after Rod Barajas. Though most fans and observers alike acknowledged that the Mets’ greatest needs were in their tattered starting rotation, Omar Minaya has focused the bulk of his attention on his second-string catching corps, signing Henry Blanco, Chris Coste, and Shawn Riggans, and retaining Omir Santos, September callup Josh Thole, and farmhand Robinson Cancel.

Of course, it kind of makes sense that Minaya doesn’t think that any one of those six is a starting catcher. But he spent much of the offseason pursuing Bengie Molina, whom no one would mistake for Gabby Hartnett. Molina was the Mets’ second-highest free agent priority behind only Jason Bay, and after Molina jilted them a month ago, they remained unable to think of any other position on the diamond. Despite the number of backup catchers the organization already possesses — and the paucity of reliable batterymates in the starting rotation — the Mets still seem to be focused on finding 162 games worth of backstops.

Considering the massive holes on the team — a first baseman who can’t play first base, a right fielder with a career OBP of .311, and a starting rotation with one sure thing and four question marks — it’s hard to understand why the team is still fretting about upgrading from Henry Blanco to Rod Barajas, whose career OBP is exactly 8 points lower than Blanco’s.

Many people have already noted that the Mets’ offseason plan this year has seemed rudderless, including Ken Rosenthal. He explains that part of this is due to the Wilpons, the owners, who haven’t given Minaya a budget figure and also retain a great deal of influence over baseball operations. Some of Minaya’s moves make some sense in a vacuum: Jason Bay may be hard to distinguish from Josh Willingham, but he’s a three-win player with a booming bat and a legitimate presence in the lineup. And, certainly, no one would mistake Henry Blanco, Chris Coste, or Omir Santos for a true starting catcher. But no one would look at this team’s lineup and view left field or catcher as the team’s most pressing needs, either.

One of my favorite sportswriters, Allen Barra, tries to put a positive spin on all the madness, writing, “The good news is that the Mets can expect an enormous turnaround in fielding with the return of just two players — Carlos Beltran… and Jose Reyes.” And, of course, that’s the point. If the Mets can’t get healthy comeback years from Beltran, Reyes, and David Wright, then the rest of the offensive overhaul will hardly matter. And if they can’t get healthy comeback years from Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez, then little else will matter, either.

Still, if there’s one thing the Mets can count on, it’s the fact that they have a whole lot of people ready for spring training. Today’s the day that pitchers and catchers report to Port St. Lucie — or, in the Mets’ case, pitchers, and catchers, and catchers, and catchers…

General Manager: Omar Minaya
Scouting Director: Rudy Terrasas

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Major League squad may still look a little rough around the edges but the minor league system is starting to round into shape. The first four players on the list all received consideration for the top spot, while the last six could all face big breakout seasons. The ’09 draft did not infuse much talented into the system.

1. Fernando Martinez, OF, Majors
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Although some have already, it is far too early to give up on Martinez. Just 21 years old, the Dominican outfielder just needs to have a healthy season. When he did get on the field in ’09, he hit .290/.337/.540 with an ISO of .250 as a 20 year old in triple-A. That is pretty darn impressive. He reached his ’08 total in home runs in about half the at-bats. Martinez actually had a career-high OPS of .877 in ’09. He also kept his strikeout rate below 20% at 18.8%, but it would be nice to see more patience at the plate (5.9% walk rate). At the MLB level, he was over-matched and hit just .176/.242/.275 in 95 at-bats. With a career line against southpaws of .237/.308/.392, he has some work to do against lefties. Despite that, he still has a chance to be a very good player.

2. Ike Davis, 1B, Double-A
DOB: March 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 1st round – Arizona State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A lot of eyebrows were raised (including mine) when Davis hit zero homers in his ’08 debut, which spanned 239 plate appearances. He responded to the criticism in a big way in ’09 and split the year between high-A and double-A while slugging 20 homers and 31 doubles. At the higher level, the first baseman hit .309/.386/.565 in 233 at-bats. He posted a wOBA of .426 and an eye-popping ISO of .256. Davis also showed a willingness to take a walk (11.2 BB%) but his strikeouts started to get out of hand (29.0 K%). He has some work to do against lefties, as seen by his OPS split: .672 against left-handers compared to 1.000 against right-handers. One caution about Davis’ breakout season: He’s a slow-footed player that posted a BABIP of .350 at high-A and .381 in double-A, so we’re likely to see his batting average come down in 2010, especially if the strikeout rate remains high.

3. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, High-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-96 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Mejia did not turn 20 until after the season ended and he reached double-A as a teenager, which says a lot about his potential. The right-hander began the year in high-A where he posted a FIP of 2.52 and allowed 41 hits in 50.1 innings. He showed good control with a walk rate of 2.86, but that jumped to 4.67 BB/9 in 44.1 double-A innings. His strikeout rate of 7.87 also increased with the promotion, though, to 9.54 K/9. Mejia allowed just two home runs on the season, thanks to a ground-ball rate just shy of 60%, which is outstanding for a flame-thrower. He dominated left-handed batters, as seen by his 10.71 K/9 rate against them, and they hit just .247 against Mejia despite a .354 BABIP. After making just 19 starts in 2009, the talented youngster should open 2010 back in double-A but he could reach the Majors by the end of the season, if needed.

4. Wilmer Flores, SS, Low-A
DOB: August 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Another young player, Flores is just 18 years old and he spent much of the year playing in low-A ball at the age of 17. Overall, he had a ‘foundation year’ with a line of .264/.305/.332 in 488 at-bats. His BABIP was just .305 so we can expect to see a bump in that in the future even though he lacks blazing speed. Flores has raw power, but he posted an ISO of just .068. He needs to show more patience at the plate after posting a walk rate of just 4.3% but he handled the bat well and struck out just 14.8% of the time. Because he profiles as a third baseman down the line, Flores will need to focus on getting stronger and driving the ball more (12.5 LD%) in 2010. He’ll likely be pushed up to high-A this coming year.

5. Jonathon Niese, LHP, Majors
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 7th round – Ohio HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, cutter, curveball, change-up

Many Mets were cursed by injuries in ’09 and Niese was one of them. A torn hamstring tendon ended his season prematurely in August after he had made just five MLB starts. Despite that fact, Niese left a solid impression after posting a 3.25 FIP in 25.2 innings. His most effective pitch was a newly-honed cutter. Earlier in the season, the southpaw showed his MLB-readiness by posting a 3.38 FIP and 55% ground-ball rate in 94.1 triple-A innings, while also showing good control with a walk rate of 2.48 BB/9. Niese should be healthy and ready to go in spring training so he has a good shot at winning a spot in the MLB starting rotation.

6. Brad Holt, RHP, Double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – University of North Carolina – Wilmington
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, splitter

Holt had two distinct seasons in ’09. After a dominating pro debut, he opened ’09 by posting a 3.18 FIP in nine high-A starts. He also posted a strikeout rate of 11.22 and showed solid control (2.70 BB/9). Moved up to double-A, though, Holt struggled with a 5.01 FIP (6.21 ERA) and allowed 58 hits in 58.0 innings, despite a BABIP of just .292. His walk rate rose to 3.57 BB/9 and his strikeout rate plummeted to 6.98 K/9. He also struggled with the long ball (1.40 HR/9), and his ground-ball rate on the season was poor at 38%. Holt, 23, will certainly return to double-A in 2010 and look to conquer the league in his second try.

7. Ruben Tejada, SS, Double-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The organization has been extremely aggressive with the slick-fielding shortstop. Despite hitting just .229/.293/.296 in high-A in ’08, the Mets promoted Tejada to double-A in ’09 and he hit .289/.351/.381 in 488 at-bats. His wOBA jumped from .277 in ’08 to .346 in ’09. He also showed improved base running and was successful in 19 of his 22 attempts. Tejada is a free swinger, who posted a walk rate of 7.0% but struck out just 12.1% of the time. He should move up to triple-A in ’09 but he’s currently blocked by incumbent shortstop Jose Reyes. Luckily for Tejada, the veteran player was injury-prone in ’09. The youngster could also slide over to second base.

8. Josh Thole, C, Triple-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 13th round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

This converted catcher has his share of doubters, but he’s done nothing but hit over the past two seasons with a batting average above .300. He even received a 17-game trial in the Majors at the end of the season and hit .321/.356/.396 in 53 at-bats. At double-A, Thole hit .328/.395/.422 in 384 at-bats. The left-handed hitter has walked more than he struck out for three straight seasons and posted a BB/K at double-A of 1.24. He doesn’t need to be platooned, as he actually has a better career batting average against southpaws (.317 vs .284). On the down side, Thole has little power and posted an ISO of .094 in the minors and .075 at the MLB level. Defensively, he’s still learning the position but he improved his throwing in ’09 and nabbed 30% of runner trying to steal.

9. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Azusa Pacific University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Nieuwenhuis’ first full pro season was a success, as he hit .274/.357/.467 in 482 high-A at-bats, while also playing a solid center field. The speedy player also stole 16 bases in 20 attempts and showed surprising power with an ISO of .193. His strikeout rate was high at 28.1% but he offset that a bit with a solid walk rate at 11.1%. He has work to do against southpaws after hitting just .235/.294/.348. The outfielder received an eight-game trial in double-A and he should head back there in 2010.

10. Jeurys Familia, RHP, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Familia is a hard-throwing right-hander who is still quite raw. However, despite being basically a one-pitch pitcher in ’09 (the fastball), he more than held his own in low-A ball at the age of 19. In 134.0 innings, he allowed just 109 hits, thanks in part to a .283 BABIP. He showed good control for his age with a walk rate of 3.09 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was modest at 7.32 K/9. His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50% at 48.8%. Familia did not allow a home run to a left-handed hitter all year (217 batters) but his strikeout rate was just 4.83 K/9 against them. If Familia can continue to grow as a pitcher, he could be a real breakout candidate in 2010.

Up Next: The Baltimore Orioles

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in batting average and home runs among the three double-A leagues: the Eastern League, the Southern League and the Texas League. You’ve probably heard a lot of these names before, but some of them are fairly new, so let’s see if they’re prospects or suspects.

The Eastern League
Batting Average
(.342) – Brock Bond | 2B | San Francisco

A former 24th round selection out of the University of Missouri, Bond doesn’t really hit with enough power to play everyday, especially with his poor instincts on the base paths; He’s been success stealing bases just 11 times in 24 attempts. With that said, the 23-year-old second base is leading the league in hitting and has a career batting average of .326. San Francisco should be proactive and begin getting him experience at other positions because he has the makings of an offensive-minded utility player.

(.338) – Josh Thole | C | New York (NL)

A converted catcher, Thole has improved enough behind the plate to be an average defensive catcher. Offensively, the left-handed prospect is a gifted hitter who walks more than he strikes out (1.32 BB/K) and hits for a high average. Thole does lack power in his bat, which limits his ceiling a little bit. However, you won’t find many left-handed hitting catchers in the Majors that can hit .300.

(.333) – Michael Taylor | OF | (Philadelphia)

Taylor has really turned himself into a prospect over the past two seasons. The Stanford grad is 6’6′ 250 pounds but he stolen 18 bases in 22 attempts, to go along with his excellent batting average and 15 home runs. Perhaps in an effort to showcase Taylor, Philadelphia promoted him to triple-A, where he’s now played four games. There are questions about how much of his power is usable, in-game power.

Home Runs
(19) – Brian Dopirak | 1B | Toronto

Rescued off the Cubs’ scrap heap, Dopirak has blossomed with a new swing and approach at the plate. He slugged 29 homers last season for the Toronto organization, while playing mainly in high-A. This season in double-A, Dopirak, 25, continued hitting well with the league lead in homers, as well as a .308 batting average. He’s now been promoted to triple-A, where he should enjoy hitting in the Pacific Coast League.

(17) – Ryan Strieby | 1B/LF | Detroit

Strieby may have hit the quietest 29 home runs in 2008. Taken in the fourth round in 2006 out of the University of Kentucky, the 23-year-old has slowly made himself into a top prospect with his combination of power and ability to hit for a respectable average (.310 in 2009).

(17) – Brennan Boesch | OF | Detroit

Taken a round earlier than Strieby and out of the University of California, Boesch’s first two full seasons in the minors were underwhelming. He’s having a breakout season in terms of power this year, although the batting average is suspect (.260) and he rarely walks (.300 OBP).

The Southern League
Batting Average
(.347) – Chris Heisey | OF | Cincinnati

Heisey has received a fair bit of attention this season for really turning himself into a legitimate big-league prospect. Drafted out of a small college in 2006, the 24-year-old outfielder showed an ability to hit for average and power, while also stealing 13 bases in 14 attempts. Heisey is now hitting .314 in 18 triple-A games.

(.328) – Desmond Jennings | OF | Tampa Bay

Despite missing almost all of 2008 due to an injury, Jennings is one of the hottest hitters in the minors. He’s screaming for a promotion to triple-A with a .485 batting average, 12 walks and seven stolen bases in his last 10 games. For the season, he’s nabbed 36 bases in 41 attempts.

(.317) – Darwin Barney | SS | Chicago (NL)

Selected in the fourth round of the 2007 draft out of the Oregon State University, Barney had a modest first full season in the Majors in 2008. Aggressively promoted to double-A in 2009, the infielder responded with a solid batting average. He doesn’t hit for power or steal bases, so Barney is probably a long-term utility player. He’s currently hitting .170 in 14 triple-A games.

Home Runs
(20) – Greg Halman | OF | Seattle

Halman has troubles hitting the broadside of a barn with the barrel of his bat (He has a strikeout rate of 41.8%), but when he makes contact that barn will have some serious hurt. Halman is loaded with athletic ability and tons of potential but it’s disappointing that Seattle has let him get to double-A with this approach at the plate (0.14 BB/K). He makes Russell Branyan look like Ichiro.

(17) – Stefan Gartrell | OF | Chicago (AL)

Three of the Top 7 home run hitters in the Southern League come from the same Birmingham squad but only catcher Tyler Flowers is a legitimate prospect. Gartrell, 25, has come a long way since being drafted out of the University of San Francisco in the 31st round as a senior in 2006. He’s repeating double-A after spending all of 2008 in Birmingham, as well.

(17) – David Cook | OF | Chicago (AL)

Cook has been kicking around the system since being drafted out of the University of Miami (Ohio) in 2003. Now 28, the outfielder is having a nice season while providing veteran leadership to the organization’s young prospects. He was recently promoted to triple-A.

The Texas League
Batting Average
(.358) – Jordan Parraz | OF | Royals

An astute pick-up out of the Astros system prior to the 2009 season, Parraz has broken out with the bat, especially in terms of average. The 24-year-old moved very slowly through the Astros system, despite being a former third-round pick with a lot of promise. His base running (33 steals in ’07) seems to have dried up with just four in 12 attempts this season. He’s probably a long-term fourth outfielder with a powerful arm, but he should be challenged with a promotion to triple-A.

(.353) – Adrian Cardenas | IF | Oakland

Cardenas’ season has had a fair number of ups and downs. The infielder had a nice beginning to his season in double-A before a quick promotion to triple-A. His struggles in the senior league led to a demotion back to double-A where he’s dominated the competition. The organization is obviously hesitant to send him back up, but he has little left to prove in double-A with the bat (defense is another story).

(.331) – Tyler Henley | OF | St. Louis

An eighth round selection out of Rice University in 2007, Henley has flown under the radar throughout his entire pro career. The left-handed hitter has a career line of .296/.362/.474 but he doesn’t hit for enough power to be a Major League regular.

Home Runs
(16) – Collin DeLome | OF | Houston

DeLome, a fifth round pick out of Lamar University, has exceeded expectations but he’s probably not going to make enough contact to be a regular big-league outfielder. His career batting average is .266 and he’s taken just 22 walks in 2009, compared to 86 Ks. Teams can always use left-handed power, though, so the 23-year-old could eventually work his way into a platoon situation in Houston.

(16) – Chad Tracy | 1B | Texas

Selected out of Pepperdine University in the third round of the 2006 draft, Tracy had a lot more value before moving from catcher to first base (and left field). Now, he projects to be a quad-A slugger, who could eek out a Ross Gload type of career.

(16) – Corey Smith | 1B | Kansas City

A former top prospect (and former first-round pick) of the Cleveland Indians, Smith just keeps plugging along in hopes of realizing his big-league dream. After hitting 26 homers in double-A for the Angels organization in 2008, Smith is tied for the league lead at the same level in 2009. He still doesn’t hit for average and he still doesn’t have much patience at the plate… but you have to applaud his perseverance.