Archive for junichi tazawa

To run a successful minor league system you have to draft well every June and spend money wisely on the international market. But you also have to have some luck by mining other systems for undervalued talent. Below you’ll find six prospects with diminished prospect value that may be poised to finally see the light click on in 2012. All the players were, at one time, highly regarded. Only one of them appeared on my 2012 Top 15 prospects lists – coming in at No. 15 on the Boston Red Sox ranking.

Mike Kvasnicka, C, Houston: Kvasnicka saw his draft stock take a huge leap in 2010 when he showed solid skills behind the dish while playing at the University of Minnesota. Hoping to get Kvasnicka to the Majors sooner rather than later the Astros organization made the decision to move him to a less demanding position. Unfortunately, his bat was not as potent as expected and did not profile well at the hot corner. The new front office regime recently made the decision to relocate Kvasnicka back behind the dish. He may return to low-A ball in 2012 to get re-acclimated with catching without putting too much pressure on his offensive game. He tired in the second half of 2011 so he’ll have to get stronger to withstand a full year of squatting behind the plate. A switch-hitting catcher carries a ton of potential value.

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Greetings Fangraphians. I have awakened from my six-week Fangraphs slumber to bring you… analysis of Junichi Tazawa’s surgery.

Last month, the Red Sox learned that Tommy John surgery would knock their #3 prospect out of commission for the next 12 months or so. Let’s take a look back at how they got here.

Tazawa signed with Boston in November 2008, after a four-year career with Shin-Nihon Oil Eneos of Japan’s Industrial Leagues. The Industrial Leagues are comprised of amateur teams fielded by Japan’s corporations, such as Toyota and Yamaha. I’m sure someone will ask how the Industrial League compares to the American minors in terms of talent, but to me it’s an apples and oranges situation in that the Industrial Leagues have a mix of NPB draft prospect talent, and guys with corporate jobs who happen to play baseball. That said, I’d say the better Industrial League teams probably grade somewhere around Indy Leauge ball.

I was probably more impressed than most to see Tazawa reach the Bigs last season. Based on the observation that it usually takes younger Industrial League pitchers at least a year or two of pro seasoning before they begin to perform at the top level in Japan, I expected Tazawa to hit a wall at some point his first pro season. Here’s a quote from an article I wrote last February:

[…] In America, he will have to adjust to the reality that even in 2A there will be guys capable of hitting his best stuff. This will challenge him to improve on his approach on the mound and preparation for the game.

It turned out that 2A wasn’t a huge challenge for Tazawa, and he did well in two 3A starts before finding the wall I envisioned at the MLB level. The Industrial Leauges are a long way from the pennant race in AL East, and that got that far in 10 months was quite an achievement.

So hindsight being 20/20, was he rushed?

In the post I referenced above, I also made a note about the mileage on Tazawa’s arm coming into the Red Sox contract:

Looking at last year’s Intercity Championship, which Tazawa’s Eneos won, Tazawa started on Sept 1, Sept 4, pitched relief on Sept 6, started again on Sept 8, and finally closed out the tourney with two innings on Sept 9. That was a total of 28.1 innings in nine days, with no more than three days rest in between apparances. I don’t have pitch count data, but I recall reading that he had gotten around 150 in one game last year* (not sure if it was this tournament or another one). And he did wear out down the stretch — in his last appearance he didn’t allow any runs, but was nicked for 7 hits in 2 innings.The upside here is that the Red Sox certainly won’t put this kind of strain on Tazawa’s arm. He’ll be put under pitch counts and watched carefully. The adjustment he’ll have to make is pitching on a regular, routine basis, instead of the short, extreme bursts of activity with long breaks in between.

* In researching today’s post, I found an article that said he had thrown 158 pitches in the September 4, 2008 game.

One thing I didn’t foresee was that Boston have him pitch from the windup. Tazawa always worked from the stretch in Japan, probably because he spent most of his Industrial League career as a reliever. His workload also increased from 103 Industrial League innings to 134.2 across three levels in the States.

So was he rushed? I have the sense that injury problems were to some extent inevitable, but yeah, it does feel like the Red Sox were aggressive with him.

General Manager: Theo Epstein
Farm Director: Mike Hazen
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

There are no can’t-miss, once-in-a-decade talents on this Top 10 list, but there are a number of players who have the opportunity to really explode in 2010. You also have to love the fact that all 10 players on the list were drafted or originally signed by the Red Sox organization. You can’t fake good scouting and development.

1. Casey Kelly, RHP, High-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus curveball, change

The organization faced a difficult, and well-document, problem in ’09 when Kelly expressed a desire to hit and play shortstop. A compromise was made and the talented prospect spent the year as a two-way player. After hitting just .224/.305/.313 with a 29% strikeout rate in low-A, though, Kelly gave in and announced he will be a full-time pitcher in 2010. It’s a good thing, too, because the right-hander showed a lot of promise for a player whose heart was not 100% on the mound last season. In low-A ball, he allowed 32 hits in 48.1 innings, while showing outstanding control with a walk rate of just 1.68 BB/9. He also did not allow a home run while posting a FIP of 2.14. That number jumped a bit with his promotion to high-A (3.33) but Kelly still showed excellent control (1.35 BB/9) with a modest strikeout rate of 6.75 K/9. With just 46.2 innings of experience above low-A, Kelly should head back to high-A in 2010, but he could see double-A before the end of the season.

2. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Short-Season
DOB: April 1990 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 5th round – Rhode Island HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Westmoreland’s season came to a crashing halt when he broke his collar bone, but the outfielder solidified himself as the organization’s best hitter… in just 223 at-bats. The 19 year old hit .296/.401/.484 and showed good power potential with an ISO of .188. He also displayed patience at the plate with a walk rate of 14.2%, far exceeding what you’d expect from a player his age. His strikeout rate was a little high, but his future power output could eventually justify the number. Westmoreland was also a force on the base paths by stealing 19 bases in as many attempts. Sure it was short-season ball but a .427 wOBA is impressive no matter how you slice it.

3. Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Majors
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Japan)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus splitter, curveball, slider

Tazawa’s mad mix of pitches cut a swath through double-A line-ups but the Japanese import found the going a little tougher in triple-A and the Majors (albeit in a smaller sample size). The right-hander allowed just 80 hits in 98.0 innings in double-A, while also posting a strikeout rate of 8.08 K/9. He was also aided by solid control (2.39 BB/9) and some luck (.277 BABIP, 79.8 LOB%). In six MLB appearances, Tazawa allowed 43 hits in 25.1 innings and his strikeout rate dropped to just 4.62 K/9. His ground-ball rate in the Majors of 24.5% was ugly, and hitters had little trouble with his 90 mph fastball (-2.54 runs “above” average per 100 pitches). Despite the bump in the road, Tazawa is still learning, as well as adjusting to life in North America, so his potential remains high.

4. Josh Reddick, OF, Majors
DOB: February 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 17th round – Middle Georgia College
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Reddick got off to a solid start in ’09 at double-A and hit .277/.352/.520 in 256 at-bats. He showed outstanding power with an ISO rate of .242. His base running, after nabbing 14 bases in 17 ties in ’08, was almost non-existent as he was successful just five times in 10 attempts. Reddick’s numbers were terrible in 18 triple-A games and poor in 27 MLB games. His walk rate was good in double-A at 10.5%, but it dropped to 7.6% in triple-A and 3.2% in the Majors. On the plus side, six of his 10 MLB hits were for extra bases (59 at-bats). Reddick will certainly receive more seasoning in triple-A in 2010 but he should be ready to compete for a full-time gig in 2011… if there’s an opportunity.

5. Lars Anderson, 1B, Double-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 18th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an ugly, ugly year for Anderson… and his struggles were well-documented. After hitting .316 in 41 double-A games in ’08, the first-base prospect spent the entire season at that level but hit just .233/.328/.345 with an ISO of .112 in 447 at-bats. There were a few good signs, including the fact that he maintained a solid walk rate (12.3%) and his strikeout rate did not skyrocket (25.5%, similar to his career norm – which admittedly is high to begin with). Anderson’s wOBA of .315 was .060 below his previous low of .374 at low-A in ’07. As a slow-footed player whose game requires plus power output, he needs to get that ground-ball rate up from 54.8%. Anderson will be just 22 for much of 2010, so he has time to turn things around.

6. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Pimentel’s ’09 numbers do not wow. He allowed a lot of hits: 135 in 117.2 innings, but he put a lot of pitches in the strike zone (2.22 BB/9) at a level where players pretty much hack at everything. He also had some bad luck with a BABIP of .350. His strikeout rate was solid at 7.88 K/9 and his FIP was OK at 3.62. Pimentel’s ground-ball rate of 39.5% needs to improve if he’s going to survive the upper levels of the system. He turns 20 in February so time is on his side.

7. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 6th round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Simply getting back to the baseball diamond after dealing with a cancer scare would have been impressive enough, but Rizzo went out and turned himself into one of the best prospects in the system. The first baseman hit .298/.365/.494 in 245 low-A at-bats before moving up to high-A where he hit .295/.371/.420. Rizzo’s power output dropped from .196 to .125 ISO with the move, but his walk rate improved (9.1 to 10.9%), as did his strikeout rate (24.5 to 19.5%). Rizzo, though, was aided by some nifty BABIPs of .364 and .354. Although he held his own against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, his OPS was .862 against righties and just .721 against southpaws. He should open 2010 back in high-A but could move up to double-A as he prepares to breathe down Anderson’s neck.

8. Derrik Gibson, SS, Short-Season
DOB: December 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Delaware HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A personal favorite of mine, Gibson received his second straight year of short-season ball and looked over-matched in a brief 14-game trial in low-A ball. In short-season ball, Gibson hit .290/.395/.380 and had a .386 wOBA in 255 at-bats. He showed good patience for a future top-of-the-order MLB hitter with a walk rate of 12.9% and his strikeout rate was reasonable at 16.5%. He’s performed poorly against southpaws for two straight seasons (.566, .621 OPS). After nabbing 14 steals in as many tries in ’08, Gibson was successful in 28 of his 33 tries in ’09. Defensively, he’s expected to move off of shortstop, which takes a bite out of his value.

9. Ryan Kalish, OF, Double-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 9th round – New Jersey HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I’m a little more bearish on Kalish than a lot of evaluators because he has yet to do anything really spectacular in four seasons. The outfielder had a nice year in ’09 and he hit .304/.434/.513 in 115 high-A at-bats. Moved up to double-A, his numbers normalized a bit with a line of .271/.341/.440. At the senior level, he posted a walk rate of 9.6% and a strikeout rate of 22.3%, which is a tad high given his career power numbers. I will certainly jump on the Kalish train in 2010 if he can maintain a solid batting average while also at least equaling his ’09 power numbers. After stealing 21 bases in 27 attempts in ’09, he could develop into a 20-20 player in the Majors if everything clicks. With everything said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he broke out in a big way in 2010 and made me look foolish for doubting him.

10. Michael Bowden, RHP, Majors
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 supplemental 1st round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

The knock on Bowden is that he’s not flashy. But there is something to be said for consistent and reliable. Pitching at double-A or higher since ’07, Bowden has posted solid numbers, although his FIP broke 4.00 for the first time while pitching for triple-A (4.08). Even so, he took advantage of some luck (.262 BABIP) and allowed just 106 hits in 126.1 innings, while showing OK control (3.35 BB/9) and a modest strikeout rate (6.27 K/9). He’ll do himself a favor if he can get the ball down in the zone more often and increase his ground-ball rate from the 31.1% he posted in triple-A. Called up to Boston to eat up some innings in the bullpen, Bowden did not have much fun – or luck. His 9.56 ERA was softened by his 5.16 FIP and he posted a LOB% rate of 48.4.

Up Next: The Philadelphia Phillies

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in Strikeouts Per 9 Innings (K/9) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) among the three double-A leagues: the Eastern League, the Southern League and the Texas League. Unlike the hitters that we took a look at yesterday, the pitching leader boards are littered with legitimate prospects.

10.33- Marc Rzepczynski | LHP | Toronto

If you scan down this leader board, you’ll see that Rzepczynski’s K/9 rate is far and above tops in all of double-A, so it’s easy to understand why the southpaw is currently pitching (well) in Toronto. Along with his ability to miss bats, Rzepczynski is a ground-ball machine with his career ground-ball rate of 64.4%. If he improve his command a bit, watch out.

8.80- Ryan Mullins | LHP | Minnesota

Mullins was left unprotected in last year’s Rule 5 draft and I advocated for a team to take a flyer on the hurler as a potential LOOGY. He passed through the draft untouched, though, and is having another typical Mullins’ season (lots of hits, few walks, good K rate)… save for one key thing. Left-handed batters are creaming the southpaw this season to the tune of a .359 batting average.

8.12- Junichi Tazawa | RHP | Boston

For some reason, we just don’t hear a lot about Tazawa when people are rhyming off Boston’s pitching prospects. The right-hander is very quietly having an impressive first year in North America at the double-A level. The 23-year-old Japanese hurler doesn’t have one dominating pitch, but he has command of four average-to-above-average pitches.

2.64- Marc Rzepczynski | LHP | Toronto

See above.

3.07- Zach McAllister | RHP | New York AL

Like Tazawa above, McAllister is a pitching prospect that does not get a ton of press because nothing about him really jumps off the page. If you look at his statistics and scouting report as a whole, though, you can see that he has the makings of a No. 3 starter, who can provide innings while not hurting himself with too many walks or hits allowed.

3.10- Jeanmar Gomez | RHP | Cleveland

Gomez is one of the fastest rising pitching prospects in baseball, which is good news for Cleveland, an organization that has a reputation for producing pitching prospects with good pitchability but below-average stuff (Jeremy Sowers, David Huff, etc.). Gomez knows how to pitch and he has the repertoire to vault himself into elite prospect status; He should be a solid No. 2 or 3 big-league starter.

3.24- Reidier Gonzalez | RHP | Toronto

Since we’ve already touched on Rzepczynski and his fine minor league numbers, we’ll take a look at his teammate Gonzalez, who is another ground-ball machine but from the right side. Even though he can dial the fastball up to 94 mph on occasion, the Cuba native does not strike out a ton of batters (6.43 K/9). He does, though, have good control and has allowed just four homers this season and 16 in the past four years. The 24-year-old is just 5’9” so his future is probably in the bullpen, although his frame has been durable so far.

8.44- Jay Jackson | RHP | Chicago NL

A two-way player at Furman University, Jackson has really blossomed as a pitcher now that he’s devoted his full-time energies to the role. He’s allowed just 68 hits in 80 innings, while also showing respectable control (3.94 BB/9) and good strikeout numbers, given his experience level.

7.95- Travis Chick | RHP | Los Angeles NL

Chick has bounced around a few organizations, but he’s still just 25 years old, so there is some potential in the right-hander – most likely as a reliever. The former Marlins’ draft pick has been stuck in double-A for four straight seasons but he’s had a few trips up to triple-A, and a brief taste of Major League life (three games with Seattle in 2006).

7.79- Travis Wood | LHP | Cincinnai

The Little Rock, Arkansas native has had a very up-and-down career since being taken out of high school in the second round of the 2005 amateur draft. The southpaw posted a 7.09 ERA in 17 double-A starts last season, but Wood appears to have mastered the league this year with solid strikeout rate, good control and a 1.21 ERA (2.75 FIP).

2.75- Travis Wood | LHP | Cincinnai

See above.

3.28- Justin Souza | RHP | Seattle

Souza was recently traded from Seattle to Oakland for part-time big leaguer Jack Hannahan. The 23-year-old had solid numbers for the Seattle organization but he’s been hit hard in two starts for Oakland’s double-A affiliate. He has the upside of a strike-throwing middle reliever.

3.38- Scott Diamond | LHP | Atlanta

Diamond, a Canadian, has produced two straight good seasons, which is impressive considering the fact that Atlanta signed him as a non-drafted amateur in 2007. His fastball is nothing special, but he knows how to pitch and he has good control. Diamond needs to sharpen his command a bit so he doesn’t leave quite so many pitches over the heart of the plate. He also needs to get right-handers out a little more consistently (.324 average).

3.52- John Ely | RHP | Chicago AL

Ely has had a very consistent, albeit not-so-flashy, season. The right-hander has average stuff so he allows a fair number of hits, but he limits the walks and does a good job of keeping the ball in the park. Ely is also durable, which could make him a solid No. 3 or 4 starter in the Majors.

8.16- Kasey Kiker | LHP | Texas

As you probably know by now, the Texas organization is blessed with pitching prospects and Kiker has advanced through the system extremely quickly. The 21-year-old southpaw has been effective against both left-handed (.192) and right-handed (.229) hitters. One knock on him, though, (aside from his 5’10” frame) is that he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which could hurt him at The Ballpark in Arlington.

7.92- Esmil Rogers | RHP | Colorado

Rogers has really emerged this season. The right-hander has improved his walk rate each of the past three seasons to a stellar 1.81 BB/9 in double-A this year. He’s also seen his strikeout rate rise each of the past four seasons to 7.92 K/9 in 2009. Rogers was recently promoted to triple-A.

7.81- Samuel Deduno | RHP | Colorado

Colorado has become a pitching development machine with the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, Rogers, Jhoulys Chacin, and Christian Friedrich, just to name a few. If Deduno can finally cash in on his potential, then the organization’s depth begins to shift from rich to ridiculous. After sitting out all of 2008 with an injury, Deduno, 25, has returned with a new focus, as well as improved control and a better understanding of pitching. He’s missed a lot of bats this season with just 56 hits allowed in 78.1 innings of work, which is impressive considering the league and his lengthy layoff.

2.51- Esmil Rogers | RHP | Colorado
See above.

3.42- Polin Trinidad | LHP | Houston

Houston’s minor league system is far from bursting with prospects, so the emergence of Trinidad over the past two seasons is welcomed. The southpaw does not have electric stuff, but he throws strikes and has some deception in his delivery. He has a good pitcher’s frame, especially now that he’s added some muscle, and projects as a No. 4 starter or middle reliever.

3.50- Tommy Mendoza | RHP | Los Angeles AL

Medonza peaked as a prospect very early on in his career before getting derailed by injury and inconsistencies. The 21-year-old right-hander is having a respectable season, although he’s allowed 100 hits in 97.1 innings of work. His strikeout rate is also just 5.73 K/9, but he’s showing solid control with a rate of 2.31 BB/9.

3.55- Graham Godfrey | RHP | Oakland

Toronto pretty much stole Marco Scutaro away from the Oakland Athletics (one of GM J.P. Ricciardi’s few good trades). The A’s received Godfrey and right-hander Kristian Bell in return for the spark-plug shortstop and former utility player. Godfrey’s first year in the organization in 2008 was underwhelming, but he’s having a nice year this year in double-A and could find his way into a big-league bullpen.

With a pitching staff overflowing with the likes of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Tim Wakefield (as well as the injured Daisuke Matsuzaka), the Boston Red Sox club has a plethora of options for the starting rotation. And there is more on the way. Let’s update the “disgusting” (ie. enviable) starting pitcher depth in the minor league system:

Clay Buchholz: Doomed by a poor 2008 season, this 24-year-old hurler has turned things around in 2009 but the organization lacks a spot for him at the Major League level. Buchholz has a 2.11 ERA (3.26 FIP) in 93.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed just 59 hits, while posting a walk rate of 2.79 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.26 K/9. Right-handed hitters are managing a batting average of just .130 against Buchholz.

Michael Bowden: Like Buchholz, this 22-year-old right-hander would probably be pitching in the Majors for just about any other big league organization. In 16 triple-A starts, Bowden has an ERA of 3.32 (4.49 FIP) and he’s allowed 70 hits in 81.1 innings, while posting rates of 3.43 BB/9 and 5.98 K/9. He’s not flashy, but he has the potential to be a solid No. 3 starter.

Felix Doubront: This 21-year-old southpaw from Venezuela is not talked about as much as some of the other pitchers in the system, but you cannot ignore his potential. Doubront has a 3.71 ERA (3.93 FIP) in 15 double-A starts. He’s been a little too hittable with 64 hits allowed in 63 innings and he has a walk rate of 4.14 BB/9, but his strikeout rates have increased as he’s climbed the organizational ladder. With a little more command and control, Doubront could vault into the upper echelon of Boston pitching prospects.

Junichi Tazawa: Tazawa received a fair bit of press this past off-season as a highly-regarded Japanese amateur free agent. Boston payed a pretty penny for the right-hander, but he’s more than justified the contract with an excellent season in double-A. Tazawa has allowed 72 hits in 87 innings of work while posting a walk rate of 2.59 BB/9. He also has a strikeout rate of 8.17 K/9, while adjusting to life in North America. Tazawa has been particularly tough with runners in scoring position (.163 average, compared to .246 with the bases empty).

Casey Kelly: Things were not supposed to go quite this easily for Kelly. The 19-year-old doesn’t even want to be a pitcher; the former two-way prep prospect would much rather play everyday at shortstop. The organization agreed to let Kelly play shortstop in 2009 if he first pitched about 100 innings on the season. With 95 innings pitched, he’s about to leave the mound behind for 2009, but Kelly has excited just about everyone with his potential as a pitcher. He blew threw low-A with a 1.12 ERA (2.14 FIP) in nine starts. In eight high-A starts, Kelly has allowed 33 hits in 46.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 1.35 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.75 K/9. Kelly has a healthy groundball rate at 53%. If you’re the Boston management, you have to cross your fingers and pray that Kelly sucks big time with the stick so he’ll turn his attention back to pitching.

And Don’t forget about: Kyle Weiland, Nick Hagadone, Stolmy Pimentel, Brock Huntzinger, and Stephen Fife.