Archive for Kenshin Kawakami

Tim Hudson made his long awaited return from Tommy John surgery late Monday night. While he showed some rust, he performed OK over all — allowing two earned runs over 5.1 innings with 6 hits allowed and three walks, while striking out five.

Here’s his movement graph. Pitch F/x apparently forgot the scouting report on Huddy, so rather than then taking the time to manually reclassify his pitches, I just broke them down by velocity.

Still a very nice sinker, splitter, cutter and curve for Hudson. He averaged about 89 MPH with his fastball and hit up to 92, so the early returns are encouraging. Thank goodness for Dr. Jobe’s miraculous invention. But now what do the Braves do with their rotation? With Hudson’s return, the Braves now have six good starting pitchers in their rotation, an embarrassment of riches. Something has to give.

Javier Vazquez 181.1 IP – 3.18 ERA – 2.83 FIP – 48.4 RAR – 5.4 WAR
Jair Jurrjens 171 IP – 2.89 ERA – 3.75 FIP – 29.3 RAR – 3.1 WAR
Derek Lowe 164.1 IP – 4.38 ERA – 3.73 FIP – 28.6 RAR – 3 WAR
Thomas Hanson 89.2 IP – 3.15 ERA – 3.98 FIP – 13.1 RAR – 1.4 WAR
Kenshin Kawakami 142.2 IP – 3.97 ERA – 4.30 FIP – 16.3 RAR – 1.7 WAR

The odd man out is reportedly Kenshin Kawakami, who was signed as a free agent from Japan over the winter and has proven to be about what the Braves had hoped: a little better than league average. Teams would be blessed to have him as their 4th starter, he’s now the Braves’ 6th starter, making him the best swing-man in the biz.

So what do the Braves do with this wonderful problem that they have in the offseason? I know the saying goes that you never have too much pitching, but Hudson has a $12M option for next season. While that’s somewhat tempting given the fact that Huddy may now be as good as new, if the Braves decide to pick it up, that would mean they would be allocating $45M to four pitchers in their rotation. Lowe is guaranteed $15M next year. Vasquez, $11.5M. Kawakami, around $7M. With the presence of two terrific cost-controlled options of Thomas Hanson and Jair Jurrjens and the Braves in desperate need of some offense, Hudson is probably headed for free agency this year. Millions of dollars are on the line for Hudson, with just a few starts remaining.

The Favorites:
1. Randy Wells, RHP, Chicago
Wells is ninth in the league in lowest BB/9 at 2.09 BB/9 and second amongst rookies behind Josh Geer. Wells is also 20th in K/BB at 2.72, although he’s eight spots below Zimmermann. The Chicago righty is comfortably in the lead amongst rookies and 16th overall in lowest HR/9 at 0.75. Wells has the 17th lowest FIP in the NL at 3.72, while Happ is at 34th (with an ERA/FIP difference of -1.32).

2. J.A. Happ, LHP, Philadelphia
Happ is tops amongst (healthy) rookies in K/9 at 6.52 (minimum 90 IPs), but that is good for just 35th in the NL. Zimmermann (on his way to Tommy John surgery) was tops amongst rookies and ninth overall at 9.07 K/9. Happ is 10th in the league in lowest-average-allowed at .233, 12 spots ahead of Wells and 13 spots ahead of Kawakami. Happ is 10th in the NL in WHIP, followed directly by Wells in the 11th hole. Happ also has the fourth lowest BABIP allowed at .262 (Wells is at 15th).

3. Dexter Fowler, CF, Colorado
Fowler is 21st in the league with a BB% rate at 13.6 (minimum 200 plate appearances), 10 spots ahead of Ryan Hanigan (who also has the 12th lowest K% at 10.9%, and the fifth best BB/K). Fowler has the seventh highest BABIP in the NL at .365, while rookies Chris Dickerson and Parra come in next at 16th and 17th, respectively. Fowler has 10 stolen bases more than any other rookie with 26 total. He performs terribly in center field according to UZR, and is rated last in the league in that category.

4. Andrew McCutchen, CH, Pittsburgh
McCutchen is second in rookies in OPS at .834. He’s also second in slugging and third in batting average. He doesn’t stand out in any one offensive category right now, but he has good all-around numbers. McCutchen has shown the best range in center field amongst the rookies, although he has not fared well in UZR. Colby Rasmus leads rookie center fielders in that category by a wide margin.

5. Casey McGehee, UTL, Milwaukee
McGehee has the slight edge on batting average over Parra, but he also has about 100 fewer plate appearances. None of the rookies are amongst the leaders in average in the National League. McGehee is the only rookie with an ISO above .200 at .203. good for 32nd in the league. He is also first in rookies with an OPS of .864. Defensively, he’s been average-at-best at second base and quite below-average at third base.

Watch Out For:
Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta
Hanson is hurt by his lack of innings, but he could make a run at the top spot with a solid month of September.

Kenshin Kawakami, RHP, Atlanta
This Japanese veteran is reliable and plugs along, but he doesn’t really deserve consideration for the award given his professional experience.

Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Washington
If not for his injury, Zimmermann would be a favorite for the award given how well he’s pitched, based on numerous categories.

Chris Coghlan, LF, Florida
Like McCutchen, Coghlan has solid overall numbers, but does not stand out in any one area. Defensively, he has not performed well according to UZR.

Gerardo Parra, CF, Arizona
Parra leads rookies with eight triples, but has stolen just five bases in 10 attempts. His defensive play has been pretty average.

Earlier this week, I took a look at the American League Rookie of the Year race. There were a number of deserving candidates for the award, led by Elvis Andrus of Texas and Rick Porcello of Detroit. Unfortunately, the competition for the year-end award in the National League is close to being a one-horse race at this point – and none of the players are having a season nearly as good as either Andrus or Porcello.

St. Louis’ Colby Rasmus has a firm grasp on the Rookie of the Year award despite having just an OK season, so far. His current line is .265/.323/.453 with six home runs in 170 at-bats. Rasmus showed good patience at the plate in April with nine walks in 18 games, but he’s walked only three times since… in almost a month and a half. His overall walk rate is down to 6.6 BB%, while his strikeout rate is at a reasonable 20 K%.

While Rasmus’ walks have decreased, his success at the plate has increased – at least in May. After bottoming out with a .212 average in May, Rasmus is heating up with the summer weather. So far this month, the 22-year-old outfielder is just four hits shy of his total for the entire month of May. His 14 hits in just nine games has been good for a .452 average.

Interestingly, he has used his good speed to swipe just one base this season, in as many attempts. In previous minor league seasons, Rasmus has nabbed as many as 27 bases. Defensively, Rasmus plays a very good outfield and he has plus range and a powerful arm.

Rasmus is still young and he has a long way to go to become a star player in the Majors. The talent is there, but there is also some lingering concern over his disappointing 2008 season in triple-A.

I am not a fan of Japanese veteran pitchers being considered for the Rookie of the Year awards. But because of the lack of options in the National League, right-hander Kenshin Kawakami is going to receive some attention. The soon-to-be 34-year-old pitcher spent 10 seasons in the Japanese Central League and twice won 17 games.

He had a rude welcome to Major League Baseball as he posted a 7.06 through April during the first four starts of his North American career. His overall numbers were not bad, but five home runs definitely hurt. Kawakami rebounded in May and posted a 3.03 ERA over five starts – and he did not allow a ball to leave the yard during that stretch.

He has been hittable throughout the year with 65 hits allowed in 64.1 innings of work. His control has been OK, although not as good as it was in Japan, and he has a walk rate 3.50 BB/9. His strikeout rate is a respectable 7.13 K/9. Opponents’ contact rate against Kawakami (79.5%) is actually lower than it is against Toronto’s Roy Halladay (79.7%), a legitimate Cy Young award candidate in the American League.

The good news for the Rookie of the Year race in the National League is that there is still plenty of time for a player such as Milwaukee’s Mat Gamel to get hot and run away with the award. Or perhaps someone like Jordan Schafer, of the Atlanta Braves, can return from his exile to the minors with a renewed approach. If Jordan Zimmermann can gain a little more consistency in Washington, then he is another candidate to consider, even if he does play for a pretty bad club.

Roy Halladay is good. I mean, really, really good. Without question, Halladay is one of those guys so consistently great that he gets overlooked due to flashes in the pan and pitchers that cobble together unexpectedly great seasons. Even more impressive than his raw figures and rates is the fact that these statistics have been accrued while facing the beasts of the AL East with regularity over the last several seasons.

This past Thursday, Doc turned in the type of performance we have come to expect, but the suddenly anemic Blue Jays could not muster any offense whatsoever. Despite seven scoreless innings from their ace, the Jays fell 1-0 to “rookie” Kenshin Kawakami and the Atlanta Braves:

Halladay’s performance was matched by Kawakami, as the latter scattered a mere three hits over eight frames, issuing nary a free pass while fanning seven. Kawakami started off a tad slow but has looked extremely solid over his last few outings. Both starting pitchers held the opposition scoreless, ultimately leading to a 1-0 win for the Braves on the heels of a Casey Kotchman sacrifice fly in the eighth inning.

Jesse Carlson, who had relieved Halladay after the seventh, surrendered a ground-rule double to Matt Diaz to begin the inning. Diaz advanced to third on a Yunel Escobar groundout, before scoring thanks to Kotchman’s flyball in a plate appearance with a 3.29 leverage index. Mike Gonzalez closed out the game for Kawakami, extending the Blue Jays losing streak and preventing Halladay from notching career win 140.

Regardless, Halladay has been absolutely phenomenal in the win category that actually means something: wins above replacement. Since 2002, including a couple seasons with lesser playing time due to injuries, here are Roy’s win values: 7.8, 8.0, 3.2, 4.4, 5.7, 5.8, 7.6. Following this particular outing, Halladay’s present win value shot up to 2.7. And if you consider that, in 2001, his 2.34 FIP in 105.1 innings bests his output in 2004–3.79 FIP in 133.0 innings–then Halladay had to have been in the range of 3.2-3.5 wins back then as well.

Since becoming a full-time starting pitcher, Roy Halladay has never seen his overall contribution fall lower than at least a win above an average pitcher, and those numbers were produced in partial seasons. His lowest win value in a full season is an astonishing 5.7 wins. In other words, Roy’s “worst” full season exceeded the production level of Johan Santana last season.

In last week’s top game, Halladay provided but another valid reason as to why he should not be left out of best active pitcher discussions. At 31 years old, he might not have another decade in the tank, but another few healthy seasons at his current pace and those Hall of Fame discussions are going to pick up steam almost exponentially.