Archive for Kyle Kendrick

For the sake of brevity, let’s just say that I have been critical of rookie GM Ruben Amaro this season. Perhaps my criticisms were the result of my being a Phillies fan as well as an analyst, making an example of him in an unfair manner. Or, perhaps my remarks were right on the money. Who knows? What I do know, after reading something this morning, is that there is now at least one more reason to be optimistic about his reign atop the defending champions. And let’s get this out of the way before moving forward – this is not a Raul Ibanez post so please be mature and avoid derailing the comments thread.

The Phillies have reportedly been mulling over anyone and everyone in their quest to fix a bruised and underachieving starting rotation. Recently, their thoughts turned to Paul Byrd, the veteran last seen in action with the Indians and Red Sox a year ago. Byrd made 30 starts and posted a 4.60 ERA and a 5.14 FIP derived from a sub 4.20 K/9 and a higher-than-desired home run rate. Essentially, Byrd put up numbers that one might consider acceptable from a minor league prospect in his first go-around with the team, not a 38-yr old with no upside and limited utility in the present.

Fortunately, Amaro feels the same way. I’m paraphrasing here, but he told reporters they had been considering Byrd but ultimately concluded that the former Phillie would not represent an upgrade over their minor league candidates. The Phillies have Kyle Drabek tearing up Double-A, as well asKyle Kendrick, Rodrigo Lopez, Andrew Carpenter and Carlos Carrasco pitching in Triple-A. Sure, Byrd would be “new,” and fans occasionally mix up new with good, but any of those four pitchers, already employed by the team, would be equal to, or better than, Byrd.

Last night I called for teams to avoid signing Brandon Backe, at least as a starting pitcher on the major league roster, since he comes close to defining replacement level and would barely be an upgrade for even a cellar-dweller. Thankfully, at least Amaro feels the same way. It is time to give young pitchers a chance and to stop recycling the garbage that is Horacio Ramirez, Sidney Ponson, Adam Eaton, Brandon Backe, Bruce Chen, etc. Reading his words was a breath of fresh air. Now, if he turns around and sends Greg Dobbs to the Mariners for Miguel Batista, I might revert to my prior opinions, but understanding that new!=good and that veteran!=automatically > minor leaguer are two key characteristics I want a GM of my team to possess. They seem like easy attributes to attain but as we have seen lately, not everyone can stake claim as acting on this knowledge.

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have, over the last several seasons, reignited a rivalry that many have been hoping to see for quite some time. They have also combined for extremely memorable finishes in each of the last two seasons. Entering 2009, the teams once again project to be very close in talent, with the Mets solidifying their bullpen and the Phillies ridding themselves of Adam Eaton. Both of the teams also happen to be four men deep in their respective starting rotations, with a decent number of hurlers competing for the final spots.

With Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez in the fold, Tim Redding looked to be the de facto fifth starter when he signed early in the offseason. Omar Minaya added some competition, however, by bringing prospect Jonathan Niese to camp as well as inking Livan Hernandez and Freddy Garcia to minor league contracts with spring training invites. Redding reportedly showed up overweight and has not been terribly impressive so far, giving up nine earned runs in just two innings of work.

Though we should never put too much stock into preseason statistics, you better believe that they play a part in the decision making processes. In 14.2 innings this month, Livan Hernandez has a 3.07 ERA and has not yet surrendered a home run. Sure, his 4.29 K/9 is below average and his success is likely smoke and mirrors, but he hasn’t looked too shabby. His low risk counterpart Garcia has been the opposite, allowing 14 hits and 13 earned runs in just seven innings, vastly reducing his chances of making the big league club. And despite being young, Niese has not looked great either, with seven walks and six earned runs in eight innings. He has shown a knack for fanning hitters, but his control needs improvement before we can consider him to be a viable and dependable major league pitcher.

Then we have Pedro Martinez, who as I wrote in a profile at Baseball Prospectus has seemingly been engaged in a one-sided game of hard to get with his former employers. The Mets apparently have an offer of $1-2 mil on the table for Pedro, and if the Dodgers fail to match these terms, Martinez would prefer to remain in New York. Assuming Garcia does not break camp with the team, and Martinez comes aboard, what do you do? Minaya will have Livan, Redding, Pedro, and Niese and just one spot available. Niese would presumably go back to the minors, but that still leaves Livan, Redding, and Pedro, with Redding being the sole owner of a guaranteed contract.

The Phillies situation is a bit easier in terms of the number of viable candidates left, but the remaining two hurlers have both been very impressive. With Kyle Kendrick and Carlos Carrasco out of the hunt, just J.A. Happ and Chan Ho Park remain. In 15 innings this month, Happ has a 3.60 ERA with 11 punchouts and just three free passes issued. Those numbers are bested by Park, who has a 1.54 ERA, 11 punchouts and no walks in 11.2 innings.

With the uncertainty surrounding Cole Hamels‘ availability, both Happ and Park could conceivably start the season in the rotation. If Hamels is available right away, the Phillies have a decision to make: which one starts and which one goes to the bullpen? The “logical” decision would be to place Happ in the bullpen to start the season given the absence of JC Romero for at least 50 games. Either way, whichever pitcher loses out will be close behind should the fifth-spot victor struggle.

If you’re a Mets fan, do you want Redding, Pedro, or Livan? And for Phillies fans, Park or Happ? And if you’re a fan of neither, who has the more intimidating name: Balfour or Broxton?

One of my favorite numbers to look at is the run support provided to a given pitcher. It’s nothing necessarily sustainable but provides solid supporting evidence when discussing the validity or merit of a starting pitcher’s statistics, namely his W-L record. For instance, many understand that W-L records are not necessarily indicative of performance quality–a guy can give up 2 or 3 runs in 8 innings and lose, or give up 5 runs in 5 innings, but receive 8 runs of support and win.

Interestingly enough, that example comes pretty close to replicating both ends of the run support spectrum. John Lannan, who Dave noted should be known for more than just injuring Chase Utley last year, is at the bottom, receiving just 22 total runs in his 14 starts. When extrapolated it comes to 2.39 RS/9, a full 0.39 runs ahead of closest “competitor” Paul Byrd. However, he has a 3.36 ERA and, including unearned runs, has a RA/9 of 3.47.

On the opposite end we have Kyle Kendrick of the Phillies. In 15 starts this season Kendrick has received 74 runs of support, or 8.50 RS/9. The next closest? Oliver Perez, whose 7.47 RS/9 is over a full run less.

It comes as no surprise then that Lannan is 4-8 and Kendrick is 6-3, even though the former appears to be pitching better than the latter.

Additionally, Kendrick is no stranger to run support either, as his 7.74 RS/9 last season would be atop the Fangraphs leaderboard if his 20 starts qualified for inclusion. So, in the last two years, Kendrick has made 34 starts and received 178 runs of support. In those 34 starts he has gone 199.1 innings while allowing 99 runs (earned or unearned). Since his mid-season callup in 2007 he has gone 16-7; his 4.47 RA/9 is more than erased by his 8.04 RS/9.

Maybe Lannan should talk to Kendrick about lending him some of those runs in order to boost his barometer.

Last year, Kyle Kendrick finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, following a successul 3/5 season with the Phillies. His performance supremely aided a depleted starting rotation and he was expected to be a key cog in their plans this year. Due to his low strikeout count and high home run total, Kendrick’s 3.87 ERA translated to a 4.90 FIP. All of the projection systems pegged him to experience a severe regression in 2008 and, after his first two starts, said systems hit the nail on the head. After his first two starts, Kendrick had lasted only 7.1 IP, surrendering 12 hits and eight walks while striking out just one batter. With an ERA of 6.14, a WHIP hovering near the 3.00 mark, and a ghastly K:BB of 0.13, Kendrick seemed primed for a sophomore slump.

Prior to last night’s game against the Astros, manager Charlie Manuel told broadcaster Chris Wheeler that Kendrick had to stay out of “hafta’ counts” to be successful. Inquiring what that meant, Manuel told Wheeler that Kendrick had to avoid counts wherein he would “hafta'” throw a strike. Manuel continued to say that, because Kendrick’s stuff is not overpowering, he needed to get ahead of batters; when he got himself into counts of 2-0, 3-1, or 3-0 batters could wait and rake. Coming into this start, here are Kendrick’s numbers against in these counts:

• After 2-0: 7 PA, 1-4, 2B, 2 BB, K, SF
• After 3-1: 8 PA, 0-3, 4 BB, SF
• After 3-0: 2 PA, 0-1, BB, K

And here are his numbers when throwing a first pitch strike: 22 PA, 5-18, 3 2B, 4 BB, 4 K.

From these numbers it appears that batters did not necessarily feast on Kendrick in these counts; however, he gave up two sacrifice flies and walked seven batters, which greatly contributed to his 11 surrendered runs on the season (5 earned). Of the 44 batters he faced first pitch strikes were thrown to just 22 of them, 50 percent.

From watching the starts it was evident Kendrick either got behind batters and struggled to recover or got ahead of hitters and proceeded to nibble until he lost them. Manuel told Kendrick to attack the batters and, last night at least, he surely did. Here is last night’s breakdown of his performance:

• After 2-0: 1 PA, L-9
• After 3-1: 1 PA, K
• After 3-0: Never had a 3-0 count
• After 0-1: 17 PA, 3-17, HR, 4 K

Kendrick really changed his approach, throwing a first pitch strike to 17 batters; as mentioned before he had done this just 18 times in his prior two starts. He only found himself in “hafta’ counts” twice and neither effected him. The game graph is below and his end line looked like: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K.

He threw 68 strikes out of 96 pitches, a much higher strike percentage than his previous two starts–91 strikes and 74 balls in 165 pitches prior to last night. Ironically, he lost the game as Roy Oswalt finally regained his form. If the Phillies seriously want to contend, Kendrick will need to build on this rather than let it be a positive outlier in a mostly negative season.