Archive for Lastings Milledge

Do Prospect Busts Ever Reach Their Potential?

The top prospect label is a form of baseball tenure. No matter if the player is deemed a bust, what once vaulted him to the top of prospect lists will continue to earn him big league opportunities.

Players aren’t considered to be the best of the best by prospect mavens unless their skills project extremely well at the major league level. When a player of this ilk fails, analysts can usually point to a specific flaw preventing his success. If a former top prospect is struggling to stick in the big leagues, many organizations will take a flier on the player to try their hand at solving his problems. If successful, a team can reap the rewards of a cheap and effective player. Otherwise, the investment was minimal, and the team can cut ties without any real risk.

This is why players like Lastings Milledge, Brandon Wood, and Jeff Francoeur will continue to get signed. In covering all three of these players over the last month, I got to thinking about how frequently these prospects-turned-busts turned things around at the major league level. Does it happen?

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Milledgeville Sputters To The South Side

In naming Lastings Milledge the ninth-best prospect in the game prior the 2006 season, Baseball America said that the precocious outfielder figured to be part of a Queens offensive core including Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright. BA also threw out this quirky nugget of information about the would-be stud: Milledge’s family “has followed [his] career throughout the minors in a recreational vehicle affectionately dubbed ‘Milledgeville.’ ”

That rec vehicle was supposed to roll into Queens for good. But half a decade and three teams later, Milledgeville has bald tires, scratched paint and the horse power of a single burro. Rather than becoming a star in baseball’s biggest media market, Milledge is just hoping to avoid a summer spent taking the International League tour through places like Toledo, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Durham. Having washed out of New York, Washington and Pittsburgh, Milledge will try to carve out a bench role with the White Sox after agreeing to a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite. Can Milledgeville get back on track, or is it destined for the scrap yard?

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Pittsburgh’s Prospect Rehab

Ever seen Celebrity Rehab ? Basically, a bunch of former stars try to clean up their lives and stay on the straight and narrow path. Recently, the Pittsburgh Pirates have employed a similar strategy with erstwhile top prospects. The Bucs scooped up four former top 100 farm talents (as rated by Baseball America) from other organizations, hoping the players could reclaim some semblance of their previous glory. Here’s a look at how those players are performing.

Ronny Cedeno, SS
#94 prospect prior to 2006
Acquired: July 2009 from Seattle Mariners

Originally a Cubs prospect signed out of Venezuela back in 1999, Cedeno showed some offensive promise at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. After a 2005 season in which Cedeno raked at Iowa (355/.403/.518) and made his be league debut, BA said that he had “proven that he could be more than a glove man.”

Suffice it to say, his bat hasn’t translated to the highest level — in 1,550 career plate appearances, Cedeno has a .273 wOBA and a 61 wRC+. BA also said that he lacked plate patience, and that part of the scouting report was dead on. Cedeno’s outside swing rate in the majors tops 35 percent.

Despite a .281 wOBA and a 71 wRC+, Cedeno hasn’t been a total liability in 2010. He has 0.7 Wins Above Replacement, on the strength of a +16.2 UZR/150 at shortstop. However, Ronny’s career UZR/150 at the position is -1.3. The 27-year-old will need to keep playing stellar defense to make up for his Adam Everett-esque lumber.

Jeff Clement, 1B
#33 prospect prior to 2006, #62 pre-2007, #42 pre-2008
Acquired: July 2009 from Seattle Mariners

The third overall pick in the 2005 draft, Clement was a highly-coveted talent as a lefty-swinging, power hitting catcher. Unfortunately, he tumbled down the defensive spectrum due to unflattering scouting reports and knee problems. Now, Clement’s strictly a first baseman. He last strapped on the catcher’s gear in 2009, and that was just for 16 games.

Though he managed a decent .279/.368/.492 line in over 1,500 PA at the Triple-A level, Clement has a .283 wOBA and a 72 wRC+ in 380 career trips to the plate in the majors. CHONE and ZiPS both gave the former USC star a .350 wOBA projection for the 2010 season, but he has a ghastly .237 wOBA so far. A .213 batting average on balls in play hasn’t helped, but Clement is hacking at 31.4 percent of off-the-plate pitches, walking 4.4 percent and whiffing 26.8 percent. Considering the position that he now plays, he has -0.7 WAR on the season.

Clement has found himself on the bench more often as of late, with Pittsburgh turning to either Garrett Jones or Bobby Crosby (speaking of former prospects..) at first base. Now 26, Clement is in serious danger of being written off as a viable starter in the majors. His rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .334 wOBA — that’s just not useful from a first baseman.

Andy LaRoche, 3B
#74 prospect prior to 2005, #19 pre-2006 and 2007, #31 pre-2008
Acquired: July 2008 from Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s not entirely fair to lump LaRoche in with the other guys on this list. First, he wasn’t really picked up as a reclamation project — LaRoche was perhaps the prime prospect acquired by the Pirates in the three-team Jason Bay/Manny Ramirez proceedings. Also, the former Dodgers prospect was a relatively productive starter last season, with 2.6 WAR.

However, it’s fair to say that LaRoche has fallen short of expectations in 2010. He was essentially a league-average hitter in ’09 (.324 wOBA, 97 wRC+), but the 26-year-old has a .291 wOBA and a 77 wRC+ this year. He displayed mild power last season, with a .143 ISO, but LaRoche has a .096 mark in 2010. Pop ups have been a problem (21.3 IF/FB%, nearly three times the MLB average). Couple that hitting with a poor UZR/150 rating (-13.9), and you have a sub-replacement-level showing: -0.3 WAR.

LaRoche should improve at the plate (.324 rest-of-season ZiPS wOBA), and he rated quite well defensively last season. Overall, his career UZR/150 at third is +0.6. There’s nothing wrong with a guy who projects as roughly an average starter, particularly when he has several years of team control remaining. But the Pirates were probably looking for a little more, and LaRoche’s long-term defensive home becomes unclear if Pedro Alvarez begins his big league career at third base.

Lastings Milledge, LF
#86 prospect prior to 2004, #11 pre-2005, #9 pre-2006
Acquired: June 2009 from Washington Nationals

Formerly the pride of the New York Mets’ player development program, Milledge has since passed through Washington and is now floundering in Pittsburgh. BA once thought that Lastings would help anchor the lineup in Queens along with Wright, Reyes and Beltran. Instead, Milledge has a career .315 wOBA and a 91 wRC+.

The 25-year-old has been even worse as of late: a .308 wOBA during a 2009 season in which he suffered a broken finger and a .292 wOBA in 2010. He’s doing a slightly better job of working the count this season (nine percent walk rate, though that includes two intentionals), but his power is MIA: a .078 ISO. Milledge is chopping the ball into the grass (51 GB%) and popping up (17.4 IF/FB%) often. He’s got -0.2 WAR on the season.

Milledge’s rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .320 wOBA. He has been around an average corner outfielder (career +1.6 UZR/150) after a disastrous stint in center field for the Nationals, so he projects as a below-average starter at this point.

So, there you have it: four players once celebrated as franchise pillars combining for -0.5 WAR. Top-rated position players provide the most production in the aggregate, but these four haven’t lived up to the billing. With perhaps the exception of LaRoche, it’s not looking good for this quartet of underachievers.


Have No Fear, Church is Here

When Omar Minaya traded Lastings Milledge to the Nationals this offseason, for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider, the heads of many New York fans began to spin. Don’t believe me? Check out some of these comments from a New York Times blog entry detailing the trade:

Wow. Worst. GM. in Baseball. What a joke. Kazmir part 2.— Posted by Tom

Great. The Mets have now inherited 25% of the starting lineup of one of the worst teams in baseball in return for a potential star. How could the combination of Schneider/Church conceivably be better for the Mets than the combination of Torealba/Milledge. Oh wait, Church is left handed. Comforting. 6 years older and below average at best, but at least he’s left handed. And then there is the Estrada trade. What the heck is Omar doing? — Posted by Mike C

This is an absolute disaster. They make decisions like “Must trade Milledge” and then settle for garbage in return instead of realizing that he’s better and cheaper than what they get in return. Schneider is toast and cost $5mm per. Church is ok, 29 year old. I hate myself for rooting for this doomed franchise. — Posted by Sauerball

I could show more but I live by the rule of three and think these responses clearly illustrate the frustration of Mets fans that this trade took place.

While the team is off to a slower-than-expected start, Ryan Church has performed so well that I’m sure at least some of the larger group of Mets fans represented in the aforementioned quotes have rescinded a bit. Church currently leads the Mets with 10.77 BRAA and a 0.67 WPA. His slash line of .310/.378/.478 accounts for the highest batting average on the team and second highest slugging percentage. He also leads the team in hits with 35 and runs participated in (RBI+R) with 45.

Despite posting a very high .373 BABIP, Church has actually been a tad unlucky based on his line drive rate. Lining the ball 28.7% of the time we would expect his BABIP to be near .400. Where is this coming from? Well, he is hitting virtually the same amount of grounders — 42.6 last year and 42.5 right now — but has turned six percent of his flyballs from a year ago into line drives.

Should he manage to keep up this torrid pace he would finish the season hitting .314/.384/.487, with 22 HR and 119 RBI. TangoTiger’s 2008 Marcel Projections pegged him for a respectable .274/.334/.465, with 15 HR and 65 RBI.

One factor not discussed much is how Church played in a notorious pitcher’s park the last three years. Whether or not the confines of Shea Stadium will truly benefit him is yet to be seen but, from what can be seen, without his production the Mets would likely be in panic mode.