Archive for Livan Hernandez

A couple of years ago, Sky Andrecheck used the power of hindsight to see if an MLB team could have built a 2009 playoff contender using only players who were available on the free-agent market that previous off-season. The only caveat was that this team had to have a league-average budget. Using actual WAR and salaries, Andrecheck pieced together the perfect 25-man roster — actually 18, since he left his bullpen to fend for itself with replacement-level players — and on Aug. 24, his hypothetical team was on pace to win 96 games. And it all happened for the bargain price of $78.6 million.

While this is an interesting exercise, and one I replicated for the 2008 season, I don’t need to tell you that a pretty strong team could have been built on the backs of 2011 free-agent steals such as Bartolo Colon, Brandon McCarthy, Jhonny Peralta and Ryan Vogelsong. Instead, Mr. Dave Cameron, in his infinite generosity, has given me a budget of $80 million FanGraphs Pesos to piece together a free-agent team for next season, without the benefit of hindsight. In case you’re wondering, the ratio of FanGraphs Pesos to Schrute Bucks is 3:1.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode Thirty-One
In which the panel dies of not surprise.

Headlines
Livan Hernandez: What’s Luck Got to Do with It?
The Game Preview, Form and Theory Of
Interleague Schminterleague (Joe Pawl Remix)
… and other no-good deeds!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matthew Carruth, Ace of Database
Joe Pawlikowski, The Polish Double-U

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have, over the last several seasons, reignited a rivalry that many have been hoping to see for quite some time. They have also combined for extremely memorable finishes in each of the last two seasons. Entering 2009, the teams once again project to be very close in talent, with the Mets solidifying their bullpen and the Phillies ridding themselves of Adam Eaton. Both of the teams also happen to be four men deep in their respective starting rotations, with a decent number of hurlers competing for the final spots.

With Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez in the fold, Tim Redding looked to be the de facto fifth starter when he signed early in the offseason. Omar Minaya added some competition, however, by bringing prospect Jonathan Niese to camp as well as inking Livan Hernandez and Freddy Garcia to minor league contracts with spring training invites. Redding reportedly showed up overweight and has not been terribly impressive so far, giving up nine earned runs in just two innings of work.

Though we should never put too much stock into preseason statistics, you better believe that they play a part in the decision making processes. In 14.2 innings this month, Livan Hernandez has a 3.07 ERA and has not yet surrendered a home run. Sure, his 4.29 K/9 is below average and his success is likely smoke and mirrors, but he hasn’t looked too shabby. His low risk counterpart Garcia has been the opposite, allowing 14 hits and 13 earned runs in just seven innings, vastly reducing his chances of making the big league club. And despite being young, Niese has not looked great either, with seven walks and six earned runs in eight innings. He has shown a knack for fanning hitters, but his control needs improvement before we can consider him to be a viable and dependable major league pitcher.

Then we have Pedro Martinez, who as I wrote in a profile at Baseball Prospectus has seemingly been engaged in a one-sided game of hard to get with his former employers. The Mets apparently have an offer of $1-2 mil on the table for Pedro, and if the Dodgers fail to match these terms, Martinez would prefer to remain in New York. Assuming Garcia does not break camp with the team, and Martinez comes aboard, what do you do? Minaya will have Livan, Redding, Pedro, and Niese and just one spot available. Niese would presumably go back to the minors, but that still leaves Livan, Redding, and Pedro, with Redding being the sole owner of a guaranteed contract.

The Phillies situation is a bit easier in terms of the number of viable candidates left, but the remaining two hurlers have both been very impressive. With Kyle Kendrick and Carlos Carrasco out of the hunt, just J.A. Happ and Chan Ho Park remain. In 15 innings this month, Happ has a 3.60 ERA with 11 punchouts and just three free passes issued. Those numbers are bested by Park, who has a 1.54 ERA, 11 punchouts and no walks in 11.2 innings.

With the uncertainty surrounding Cole Hamels‘ availability, both Happ and Park could conceivably start the season in the rotation. If Hamels is available right away, the Phillies have a decision to make: which one starts and which one goes to the bullpen? The “logical” decision would be to place Happ in the bullpen to start the season given the absence of JC Romero for at least 50 games. Either way, whichever pitcher loses out will be close behind should the fifth-spot victor struggle.

If you’re a Mets fan, do you want Redding, Pedro, or Livan? And for Phillies fans, Park or Happ? And if you’re a fan of neither, who has the more intimidating name: Balfour or Broxton?

In order to cope with the loss of two starting pitchers from last year’s club, the Twins imported veteran starter Livan Hernandez to fill innings at a reasonable clip. At this point in his career, though, it was clear that Hernandez wasn’t going to be much more than a pitch to contact innings eater. Well, he’s lived up to that persona and then some.

A guy who posted average strikeout rates in his prime is now transitioning into the second stage of his career as the new Nate Cornejo. His K/9 this year stands at a paltry 2.83, second lowest in baseball among starting pitchers. Only Jon Garland, who we discussed previously, is missing bats with less frequency than Livan Hernandez. In fact, both Garland and Hernandez are posting remarkably low strikeout rates compared to recent history.

Since 1988, only 17 pitchers have tossed 100 or more innings in a season with a K/9 of 3.00 or less, combining to make it happen 22 times. Kirk Rueter was the last to do it, pitching himself out of baseball in 2005 with a 2.10 K/9. The previously mentioned Cornejo did it in 2003, but only lasted 25 innings into the 2004 season before seeing his career end as well. Clearly, this isn’t a list of guys who went on to have long, productive careers after watching their ability to rack up the strikeouts all but disappear.

However, Hernandez has managed to succeed despite the strikeout rate by dramatically cutting down on his walks and keeping the ball in the yard. In all, he’s actually posting a not horrible 4.46 FIP, and while he probably won’t be able to keep his home run rate this low, that he’s not walking anyone should give the Twins hope that he can squeeze together a few more months of useful pitching. Hernandez isn’t a guy you want in your rotation long term, but given the choice between paying Carlos Silva $48 million over four years or paying Hernandez $5 million for one year, it seems pretty clear that Minnesota made the right choice.