Archive for Lou Marson

Reflecting on the Cliff Lee Trade

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October 14, 2009

At mid-season, Philadelphia was making a well-publicized push for Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, a free agent after the 2010 season. With then Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi wanting the moon and then some, the Phillies organization looked elsewhere for pitching depth. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is looking like a very smart man.

Cleveland sent veteran southpaw Cliff Lee to the Phillies for four prospects: right-handed pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp, infielder Jason Donald, as well as catcher Lou Marson. Lee made 22 starts in Cleveland and was good for four wins above replacement (WAR). For Philly, he made 12 regular season starts and was good for a 2.4 WAR. In the playoffs to this point, Lee’s excellent pitching allowed Philadelphia the opportunity to win both of his starts (a 0.70 WPA).

So, how did the prospects end the season in the Cleveland organization? For Philly’s Triple-A squad, Carrasco – the highest-rated prospect in the trade – had a 2.92 FIP in 114.2 innings. In Cleveland’s system, he posted a 4.01 FIP in 42.1 innings, while allowing 31 hits and posting a walk rate of 2.98 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.79. He made five starts in Cleveland and posted a 7.08 FIP. He had equal walk/strikeout rates at 4.43. Carrasco’s fastball value was well below-average at -5.95 wFB/C despite averaging 92.3 mph.

Marson hit .250/.346/.386 with a .136 ISO in 44 big-league at-bats for Cleveland. He also hit .243/.319/.340 in 103 Triple-A at-bats for the organization. Donald hit .257/.350/.400 but appeared in just 10 games after the trade due to an injury. Knapp also struggled through injuries in his new organization. (He was dealing with shoulder woes before the trade, too) Cleveland, though, could not turn down the opportunity to acquire his blazing fastball and gaudy strikeout numbers in low-A ball (11.03 K/9). Once in the Cleveland organization, Knapp made four starts and pitched just 11.2 innings.

That’s not a whole lot for the 2008 Cy Young award winner. Also keep in mind that Cleveland also tossed in outfielder Ben Francisco, who has some value as a bench player. To be honest, Donald and Marson are likely part-time players at best. Clevaland has better options, especially at catcher. Knapp is a long way away and the injury to his shoulder is worrisome. Carrasco is a pitcher who has never been able to live up to his impressive potential. Lee, on the other hand, has already exceeded expectation.


Trade Deadline Prospects Ranked, Part 4

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August 6, 2009

At the expiration of the Major League Baseball trading deadline, 35 prospects had changed hands (beginning July 19 with Milwaukee’s acquisition of Felipe Lopez). Over the next week, FanGraphs will take a look at each prospect, while also ranking them individually in value from 35 down to one. Players such as Justin Masterson, Clayton Richard, Kevin Hart, and Jeff Clement were not considered in this list because they have expired their rookie eligibility. However, they can still technically be considered “prospects” because they are young and have yet to establish themselves at the MLB level.

We’ve already taken a look at prospects 35-15 on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

  • 14. Steve Johnson, RHP
    From Los Angeles NL to Baltimore

    It’s been a slow climb through the minors for Johnson. The former high school drafted pick has struggled with his command and control throughout his career. He’s also working hard to improve his secondary pitches. Johnson spent the majority of his time in the Dodgers’ system this year at high-A, where he allowed 94 hits in 96.2 innings. He also posted rates of 3.91 BB/9 and 9.50 K/9. Prior to the trade, the right-hander made two double-A starts. His stuff would probably be better coming out of the bullpen (He can occasionally hit 93 mph as a starter), where he could focus on one secondary pitch to go with the heater. His ceiling is that of a set-up man or No. 4 starter.

  • 13. Clayton Mortensen, RHP
    From St. Louis to Oakland

    Mortensen, 24, was a supplemental first round draft pick back in 2007 by the St. Louis Cardinals. He doesn’t have star potential, but the right-handed sinker/slider pitcher could be a valuable No. 3 or 4 starter for the Oakland Athletics. In 17 triple-A starts for the Cardinals organization in 2009, Mortensen allowed 103 hits in 105 innings of work. He also posted a walk rate of 2.91 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.03 K/9 – both of which represented significant upgrades over his rates in 15 triple-A appearances in 2008. Since coming over to Oakland’s system, Mortensen has made two starts. He’s allowed nine hits in 11 innings, but he’s also walked seven. An improved changeup could definitely benefit Mortensen, who struggles against left-handed hitter (.303 career average vs LH hitters, .225 vs RHs).

  • 12. Bryan Price, RHP
    From Boston to Cleveland

    The trade from Boston to Cleveland could really benefit Price, who was blocked by a number of other talented starting pitchers in his former organization. The right-hander began the year in low-A where he allowed 37 hits in 44 innings of work and posted solid walk and strikeout rates. Promoted to high-A, Price’s ERA rose from 2.45 to 6.54 but his FIP was a solid 3.22. The Texan allowed 62 hits in 52.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 3.27 and a strikeout rate of 9.80. He had a nice debut in the Cleveland system with six shutout innings in high-A. Price’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 95 mph, a plus slider and a changeup. A reliever in college, he has a chance to be a solid No. 3 starter in the Majors.

  • 11. Scott Barnes, LHP
    From San Francisco to Cleveland

    Barnes is rated a little higher here than many people might expect, but you have to appreciate what he’s done in a very short period of time. The southpaw was nabbed in the eighth round of the 2008 draft out of college after flying under the radar. He had a dominating debut and continued to pitch well in ’09 despite jumping up to high-A in a very good hitter’s league. In 98 innings with the Giants’ club, Barnes allowed 82 hits and posted a walk rate of 2.66 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.09 K/9. He’s handled right-handed hitters very well in his career with a batting average allowed of just .207 (.224 vs LH hitters). Barnes has a very good changeup and deception in his delivery. His fastball works in the upper 80s, but he can touch 91-92 mph. If his curveball can improve a little more, Barnes could very well end up as the steal of the trade deadline.

  • 10. Josh Roenicke, RHP
    From Cincinnati to Toronto

    Roenicke has more MLB experience than any other player on this list and he immediately slid into the Toronto bullpen after the trade. A late bloomer who was 23 years old when he was drafted out of UCLA, the right-hander has a big-time fastball that can touch 99 but sits around 94 mph. He also utilizes a cutter and a slider. Roenicke has the potential to be the Jays’ closer of the future, especially if he can gain more consistency with his control. In 28 triple-A innings in 2009, Roenicke allowed 30 hits while posting a walk rate of 1.93 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 10.28 K/9. In 15.1 big-league innings, he’s allowed 16 hits, seven walks and 18 Ks. He has yet to allow a homer this year and has allowed just six in 159 pro innings. Roenicke’s younger brother Jason also pitches in the Jays’ system and the family is familiar with Canada, as father Gary played briefly with the Expos.

  • 9. Lou Marson, C
    From Philadelphia to Cleveland

    Marson’s value has taken a bit of a hit in 2009. He’s shown that he can consistently hit for average but the right-handed hitter has struggled to hit the ball with authority. Scouts were already knocking the catcher for his lack of power prior to 2009, but his ISO has dropped from .120 in ’07 to .102 to .076 in ’09. He’s hit just one homer and 14 doubles this year in 228 at-bats. On the plus side, he continues to get on base via the walk (12.4 BB%) and keeps the strikeouts to a minimum (19.0 K%). With Carlos Santana already established as the catcher of the future in Cleveland, Marson is headed for a back-up role if he’s not traded again.

  • 8. Zach Stewart, RHP
    From Cincinnati to Toronto

    The trade of veteran third baseman Scott Rolen to Cincinnati still has people shaking their heads. Not only did the Jays shed salary and pick up a potential closer in Roenicke but the Reds also surrendered Stewart, who was the club’s third round draft pick in 2008. The right-handed former college closer has seen his value rise significantly in 2009 as he’s shown the ability to stick in the starting rotation. Stewart began the year in high-A ball where he allowed 47 hits in 42.1 innings of work. He then moved up to double-A where he allowed 29 hits in 37 innings of work and posted a walk rate of 2.43 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.54 K/9. Cincinnati then promoted him to triple-A where he moved back to the bullpen in anticipation of him helping out at the MLB level late in ’09, if needed. The 22-year-old allowed 11 hits and eight walks in 12.1 innings of work while also striking out 16 batters. Toronto has committed to moving him back to the starting rotation, although that may not occur until 2010 (which would help control his innings total for the year).

    Check back tomorrow for the Top 7 prospects traded at the deadline.


    • A Minor Review of 2008: The Phillies

    by
    October 9, 2008

    The Graduate: J.A. Happ | Born: October 1982 | Left-Handed Pitcher

    Oddly enough, the Phillies did not employee any rookie long enough in 2008 to expire his rookie status, but instead of leaving this space blank I thought we could take a quick look at J.A. Happ who could be in line for more playing time in 2009. Happ was valuable in his brief time in Philly because of his versatility, as he made four relief appearances and four starts. His stuff is nothing special (although the fastball is hard to pick up and has good movement) and he allowed a few too many walks (3.98 BB/9), but he limited the hits (7.96 H/9) and struck out his fair share of batters (7.69 K/9)

    The Riser: Michael Taylor | Born: December 1985 | Outfielder

    You could make the argument for a few names in this spot, which is great news for the organization, but I went with Michael Taylor because he made a bigger jump from where he was in 2007. The hulking outfielder (6-6, 260 pounds) was not even considered to be among the organization’s top prospects entering into 2008, after being drafted out of Stanford in the fifth round of the 2007 amateur draft. He split the season between both A-ball affiliates and hit .361/.441/.554 with a .193 ISO in Lakewood and .329/.380/.560 with a .230 ISO in Clearwater.

    The Tumbler: Joe Savery | Born: November 1985 | Left-Handed Pitcher

    Joe Savery all but disappeared while pitching in High-A ball in 2008. He was drafted 17th overall out of Rice University in the 2007 draft – and would have been taken higher if not for his history of injuries. Savery’s stuff was not at all like it used to be, especially with his fastball missing oomph. He allowed rates of 10.24 H/9, 3.59 BB/9 and 7.30 K/9. The 2009 season will be huge for Savery, who needs to get back on track to realize his former potential.

    The ’08 Draft Pick: Jason Knapp | Born: August 1990 | Right-Handed Pitcher

    Jason Knapp was drafted in the second round of the 2008 draft out of a New Jersey high school and immediately made himself known in Rookie ball. Knapp posted a 2.61 ERA in seven appearances and allowed just 26 hits in 31 innings. He also posted rates of 3.48 BB/9 and 11.03 K/9.

    The ’09 Sleeper: Drew Naylor | Born: May 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

    Drew Naylor, an Australian, had a nice first full season in professional baseball, after spending the previous two years in short-season ball. He allowed 69 hits as well as rates of 2.16 BB/9 and 10.00 K/9 in 87.1 A-ball innings, before moving up to High-A where he allowed 86 hits and rates of 3.58 BB/9 and 6.81 K/9 in 78 innings. Naylor must continue to improve his secondary pitches – a curveball and change-up – which complement his low-90s fastball.

    Up Next: The Seattle Mariners