Archive for Manny Parra

The editors of FanGraphs invite you to put the following in your pipe and smoke it.

Or just read it with your eyes. You choose.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Friday, August 13
Milwaukee (Yovani Gallardo, 9) at Colorado (Jorge de la Rosa, 9) | 9:10pm ET
• Casey McGehee entered Wednesday’s game versus Arizona batting .272. Entering play today, that number’s risen to .285 — mostly on account of he’s gone 9 for his last frigging 9. “But, Cistulli,” maybe you’re saying, “didn’t you even know that batting average is so 1997?” “Well,” I reply, “it also makes up about 80% of a player’s on-base percentage, so stick it.”
• Jorge de la Rosa currently sports a 5.01 ERA, but only a 3.73 xFIP. Impress your friends and/or enemies by reciting this loudly in a public place.
• If I had my druthers: We could all impress each other without even trying.

Toronto (Marc Rzepczynski, N/A) at Los Angeles Americans (Scott Kazmir, 2) | 10:05pm ET
• Hear me now and believe me whenever you want: this game isn’t being featured because of Scott Kazmir’s sweet pitching skills. Kazmir has below-average strikeout, walk, and groundball rates. No, the real pleasure will be watching Toronto, currently the only team with a collective ISO greater than .200 (specifically, .210), take massive hacks at Kazmir’s junk*.
• Jose Bautista hit his league-leading 36th dongpiece last night. Hear him roar!
• Ah, man: I love the Rze and so can you. Like Tom Cruise in a certain 1983 cinematic masterpiece, Marc Rzepczynski has all the right moves. He doesn’t qualify for a NERD score yet, but has a 3.41 xFIP against a 7.15 ERA. And he’s only 25. And even the vowels in his name are consonants.
• Peter Bourjos! Peter Bourjos! Peter Bourjos! (Yes, this is what passes for baseball analysis these days.)

*And by “junk,” I mean his pitches, of course.

Saturday, August 14
San Diego (Mat Latos, 10) at San Francisco (Madison Bumgarner, 7) | 4:10pm ET
• Damn, Mat Latos, you’re only 23 and have one of the best xFIPs (3.56) among starting pitchers.
• Damn, Madison Bumgarner, you’re better than I thought you were going to be.
• Damn, Ryan Ludwick, who died and gave you a career 7.9 UZR/150 in right field?

Oakland (Trevor Cahill, 5) at Minnesota (Brian Duensing, 4) | 7:10pm ET
• Neither Cahill nor Duensing are real edge-of-your-seat exciting pitchers. Both are below average in terms of swinging-strike rates, and hence K/9. But they’re also pretty-really good at inducing grounders. On the season, Cahill is sporting a 56.4% groundball rate; Duensing, 52.4%. How many will they induce tonight?!? Tune in to find out!
• In case you didn’t hear, Oakland recently promoted prospect Chris Carter to the big club. I had the opportunity to see all 6’5″, 230 of Carter this spring when Triple-A Sacramento visited Portland, Ore. Here was my first thought: “I could totally take that guy.” Here was my second: “I must be pretty sauced right now.”
• If I had my druthers: I could totally take that guy.

Boston (Jon Lester, 9) at Texas (Colby Lewis, 6) | 8:05pm ET
• Lester has groundball rate of 54.3%. That’s surprising to me, and, because I’m not that special, I’m guessing it surprises you and you and you. How’s he doing it? Well, I asked the internet that question — specifically, StatCorner’s awesome scouting tool — and here’s what I found. (All pitches are graded on 20-80 scouting scale in each cat).

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
FB	58%	93	70	60	75
SI	16%	89	80	65	50
CB	14%	77	65	45	70
CH	8%	85	60	25	75
Overall	--	--	70	50	75

What we find here is that, with the exception of Lester’s sinker, he’s getting near league-best groundball rates on all his pitches. Now you know!
• Colby Lewis is dynamic. That’s it: he’s just frigging dynamic.
• If I had my druthers: Someone would design a plane or something modeled after Colby Lewis’s dynamism.

Sunday, August 15
Cleveland (Justin Masterson, 8) at Seattle (Felix Hernandez, 10) | 1:05pm ET
• Fact One: Justin Masterson has 63.4% groundball rate.
• Fact Two: The Cleveland infield has had a whole lot of Jason Donald and Asdrubal Cabrera and Mark Grudzielanek and Anderson Hernandez and Jhonny Peralta and Andy Marte up in it.
• Fact Three: Literally, all those guys have negative UZRs. Yeah, it takes some time for UZR to stabilize, but that’s a bad trend, at the very least.
• Fact Four: Justin Masterson has a .347 BABIP against.
• You fill the blanks, America.

Baltimore (Jake Arrieta, 1) at Tampa Bay (Jeremy Hellickson, N/A) | 1:40pm ET
• He’s only pitched 14 innings, so whatever, but here are the (very impressive) nerd scouting numbers for Hellickson. (Again, per StatCorner, on the 20-80 scouting scale.)

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
FB	51%	91	65	25	80
CH	27%	81	80	80	35
CB	18%	75	80	80	80
Overall	--	--	80	70	80

• Who’m I kidding? I’m just watching this so the computer-robot known as R.J. Anderson doesn’t freak out on me.
• If I had my druthers: R.J. would someday get his wish to become a real boy.

Milwaukee (Manny Parra, 7) at Colorado (Ubaldo Jimenez, 8) | 3:10pm ET
• Dear Future Self, Is Casey McGehee 18 for his last 18 now? What’s it like where you are? Do they have frozen yogurt still?
• Manny Parra is a lefty who throws 92-94 mph and has a killer split-finger pitch. He’s also someone who’s been cursed by God, as his career .352 BABIP-against confirms.
• Experiment: Sit at a sports bar and tell the dude next to you that Ubaldo Jimenez isn’t the best pitcher in the majors. Wait for his reaction.

Stephen Strasburg is pitching tonight (at 4:35pm ET, versus Brian Bannister and Kansas City). It goes without saying that every American boy should watch that game while holding his father’s hand. But there are other baseball games, too, and one of them — Minnesota at Milwaukee — is deserving of the baseball nerd’s attention.

For this edition of One Night Only, I contacted certain members of the nerdosphere who possess intimate knowledge of the teams participating in tonight’s game. I also contacted my friend Dan Lurie, who, despite not being a member of the nerdosphere proper, is a bang-up gentleman and Minnesota native.

Of each contributor I requested two or three bullet points in response to the following prompt:

Knowing your team the way you do, what’s something a general audience should know ahead of this contest?

Their responses (in the relevant sections below) are almost entirely verbatim, copied right from my email account to these electronic pages. Thus, if the syntax differs from one section to the other, well, you’re invited to deal with it.

Voila:

Minnesoter at Mawaukee | Wednesay, June 23 | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Twins: Francisco Liriano (NERD: 10)
87.2 IP, 9.55 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, .339 BABIP, 48.7% GB, 2.7% HR/FB, 3.07 xFIP

Brewers: Manny Parra (6)
48.1 IP, 9.31 K/9, 4.10 BB/9, .362 BABIP, 49.3% GB, 10.6% HR/FB, 3.81 xFIP

From Larry Granillo, Owner-Operator of Wezen Ball
• There’s little doubt that the Brewers’ terrible pitching has done the most damage to the team’s chances this season. A close second, however, is the terrible defense. The only positions to have a positive UZR among the regulars are Carlos Gomez in CF (UZR of 0.6 in 338 innings) and Alcides Escobar at SS (1.9 in 518 innings). Jim Edmonds has a 1.3 UZR in 264 innings across all three outfield positions.
• Despite that porous defense, and despite Fielder’s career -6.4 UZR/150 at first base, the Brewers have started someone other than Prince at first only once in the last 260 or so games, and that was only last week. Also, since Prince announced his vegetarianism before the start of the 2008 season, he has hit 93 home runs, driven in 270 runs, and put up a .930 OPS. If he’s still on that diet, it hasn’t exactly sapped his strength.
• The Brewers have not won a game in which the Chorizo won the sausage race… Ok, I made that one up. But the Brewers do have an NL worst 11-19 record at home. The only team with a worse home record in baseball is the Orioles. That’s not exactly the company you want to keep

From Jack Moore, Math Snob and Owner-Operator of Disciples of Uecker
• Parra’s [been] awesome [in his] last three starts, as we talked about in the pod. [The pod, that is, which I am almostly defintely editing as you read these words. Promise! – Cistulli]
• Jonathan Lucroy is a relatively exciting prospect, as he’s a solid defensive catcher, and a good contact hitter who should be a solid, above-average ML catcher.
• For all the talk about Jim Edmonds being a poor fielder, he’s hitting extremely well this year at age 39 and coming off a year away from baseball. This is the second time the Brewers have come up big on a guy who was out of baseball, after Gabe Kapler in 2008.
• John Axford is awesome and has a fantastic mustache and a 94-97 MPH fastball.

From Bryz, Owner-Operator of Off the Mark
• If you are communicating online or via text about Francisco Liriano during the game, you must call him FranKKKKie (one K for every strikeout he has recorded. If he has none, then default to Liriano). Bonus points if you do this verbally and/or can include backwards Ks.
• Prince Fielder may be a vegetarian now, but Delmon Young has been far more successful in losing weight.
• Insiders claim that Carl Pavano and John Axford have a $500 wager on who will have the better mustache by the end of the season.

From My G, Dan Lurie, Front Man of The Grapefruit League
• There’s the coming-of-age story of Delmon Young who is cooking right now (maybe because he can finally be confident that he’ll be in the lineup almost every day). Dude has been notching some clutch hits lately and seems to have cut down a bit on his wild free-swinging. He’s also much more svelte, as we’ve discussed during past viewings. [This is true. We’ve talked about this. Dan Lurie is absolutely not lying. – Cistulli]
• As for prospects, Danny Valencia has been up for a couple weeks and started 3B again Tuesday night, after Gardy got bold the past few days and had Cuddyer starting over there.
• Also, please note this ridiculous Punto t-shirt.

A Tweet from Dayn Perry
In the event that you haven’t seen the face part of John Axford yet, this tweet from Dayn Perry will give you an idea of what to expect:

John Axford looks like he should be in a Victorian stage play tying a chaste maiden to the railroad tracks.

One Other Match-Up That’ll Probably Be Pretty Great
Randy Wells (8) at Cliff Lee (10), 10:10pm ET.

If I Had My Druthers
• Manny Parra would throw off the burdensome yoke of Fortune. I mean, it’s a seriously heavy yoke that probably hurts him alot.

Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the National League Central division. Of the six teams in the division, no club relied on young players in 2008 more than the Cincinnati Reds – both in the field and on the mound.

In the past few days, we have looked at the: AL Central, AL West, AL East.

In any other year, Joey Votto would have had a legitimate shot at the Rookie of the Year award in the National League. Last season, the first baseman hit .297/.368/.506 with 24 homers and 84 RBI in 526 at-bats. He also posted a walk rate of 10.1% and a strikeout rate of 19.4%. This season, Votto has dealt with some medical concerns, but he’s still hitting a robust .357/.464/.627 with eight homers and 33 RBI in 126 at-bats. His strikeout rate is virtually the same, but the 25-year-old Canadian has increased his walk rate by almost five percent.

It’s funny how baseball works. Outfielder Jay Bruce was the most highly-anticipated rookie of the year at the beginning of 2008, but his rookie season ended up being pretty average. Now 22, Bruce spent the first 48 games of the season in triple-A before his promotion. In the Majors, he hit .254/.314/.453 with 21 homers in 413 at-bats. He also had a walk rate of 7.4% and a strikeout rate of 26.6%. This season, he’s hitting just .217/.306/.469 with 16 homers in 226. On the positive side, his walk rate has increased by three percent and the strikeout rate is down four percent. After posting a .298 BABIP last season, Bruce’s BABIP is a ridiculously low .206. His line drive rate is down seven percent from the 21.1 LD% he had last season. Right now, he’s kind of looking like a cross between Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn, which isn’t really a good thing. At least he’s still very young.

The only bigger enigma in the Reds’ system is right-hander Homer Bailey. The 23-year-old pitcher has very good stuff, but consistency is not his strong suit. After a disappointing nine starts in 2007, Bailey returned to the Majors for part of 2008 and posted a 7.93 ERA with 59 hits in 36.1 innings. He posted a 4.21 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of just 4.46 K/9. This season, Bailey has made just one (poor) MLB start while spending the majority of his time in triple-A. He has a 2.83 ERA with 81 hits allowed in 82.2 innings. He has a walk rate of 2.72 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.06 K/9.

Johnny Cueto was mostly an unknown prospect prior to the 2008 season but he made a name for himself pretty quickly. Overall, the right-hander was 9-14 with a 4.81 ERA and he was inconsistent all season. However, he still struck out more than 150 batters (8.17 K/9) while keeping the walks to a modest number (3.52 BB/9). This season, the 23-year-old has been even better with a 2.17 ERA and 68 hits allowed in 87 innings. He’s decreased his walk rate by almost one full walk per nine innings, but his strikeout rate has also dropped. Cueto’s ground-ball rate is also up, though, and he’s becoming more of a pitcher and less of a thrower.

Milwaukee fans had been waiting for Manny Parra to “arrive” for quite a few seasons, but his MLB career was delayed by injuries in the minors. The left-hander’s rookie season in 2008 had promise, although he allowed far too many hits with 181 in just 166 innings of work. He also posted a walk rate of 4.07 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.97. This season, Parra completely fell apart before being demoted to triple-A. In the Majors, Parra posted a 7.52 ERA with 83 hits in 64.2 innings. His walk rate jumped to 5.71 BB/9.

Kyle McClellan, 25, was a key part of the Cardinals bullpen in 2008 despite an uninspired minor league career. The right-hander posted a 4.04 ERA with 79 hits allowed in 75.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 3.09 BB/9 and 7.02 K/9. This season, the reliever has a 3.45 ERA and has allowed just 23 hits in 31.1 innings. He has struggled with his walk rate at 4.88 BB/8 and his strikeout rate is 6.61 K/9.

J.R. Towles was one of the Astros’ better hitting prospects prior to the 2008 season but he struggled mightily in the Majors. The right-handed hitting catcher batted just .137/.250/.253 with a strikeout rate of 27.4 K%. He hit more than .300 after a demotion to triple-A. This season, Towles, 25, has appeared in just four MLB games and has a batting average of .182. He’s spent the Majority of the year in triple-A and has a triple-slash line of .281/.385/.461. With top prospect and catcher Jason Castro in double-A, Towles’ future is probably in another organization.

A Rule 5 pick-up from the Dodgers, Wesley Wright appeared in 71 games for the Astros in 2008. He posted an ERA of 5.01 and allowed 45 hits in 55.2 innings of work. He had a walk rate of 5.50 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.22 K/9. The southpaw held lefties to a .207 batting average and righties hit .220. This year, Wright struggled with a 7.24 ERA and allowed 23 hits in 13.2 innings. He was then demoted to triple-A.

Kosuke Fukudome had a red-hot first few months in the Majors and then fell off the face of the earth for the remainder of 2008. Overall, the Japanese rookie hit .257/.359/.279 with 10 homers and 12 stolen bases in 501 at-bats. Last year, he hit .279 in the first half of the year and just .217 in the second half. This year, he got off to another good start but has cooled as of late to an overall line of .266/.394/.429 with five homers and four steals. The 32-year-old outfielder does not have youth on his side.

The reigning Rookie of the Year in the NL, Geovany Soto had a great offensive season for the Cubs. He hit .285/.364/.504 with 23 homers and 86 RBI in 494 at-bats. The catcher also posted a walk rate of 11.2 BB% and a strikeout rate of 24.5 K%. This year has been a disaster as he’s hit just .217/.324/.311 with three homers in 161 at-bats. His rates are pretty much the same but his power has dried up. The Cubs really need his bat to wake up.

The Pirates received some help from outfielders Brandon Moss and Nyjer Morgan in 2008. Moss was acquired from Boston in the Jason Bay deal, while Morgan is a homegrown talent. Moss had a modest rookie year and hit just .246/.304/.436 with eight homers and one steal in 236 at-bats. His strikeout rate was high at 29.7 K%. It’s dropped almost 10 percent this season but the outfielder is still not hitting well with a line of .243/.293/.343 with one homer and no steals. Morgan, on the other hand, is exceeding expectations. The speedy outfielder had just nine steals in 14 attempts last year but he hit .294/.345/.375 in 160 at-bats. This season he has 16 steals in 23 attempts and is hitting .261/.338/.340. Morgan, 28, looks like a useful fourth outfielder.

The Graduate: Manny Parra | Born: October 1982 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Manny Parra finally overcame a plethora of injuries to have an impact at the Major League level… about three years after he was originally expected to surface in Milwaukee. He showed some rough edges, including 181 hits allowed in 166 innings pitched, as well as a walk rate of 4.07 BB/9. But he also showed tons of potential with a K/9 rate of 7.97 and a fastball that averaged 92.4 mph. His secondary stuff – a change-up and curveball – still needs work but there are not many lefties that can hit the mid-90s.

The Riser: Jonathan Lucroy | Born: June 1986 | Catcher

Nabbed in the third round of the 2007 draft, Jonathan Lucroy has hit, hit and then hit some more. His two-year pro line is .315/.379/.492 with 24 homers and 116 RBI in 709 at-bats. In 2008, split between two A-ball levels, he posted rates of 10.9 BB% and 17.7 K%. Lucroy also showed improved power this season and slugged 20 homers with an ISO of .193. He is a solid leader behind the plate but his defence is lacking at times. That said, he threw out 56 of 125 runners attempting to steal (45%).

The Tumbler: Brent Brewer | Born: December 1987 | Shortstop

The aptly-named Brent Brewer, who was drafted out of high school in the second round of 2006, has been slow to develop for Milwaukee. His biggest flaw has been a lack of contact. Brewer has struck out at an alarming rate in his career, with a three-year average near 30%. His batting average has also been… well, average, at the career mark of .247. Brewer has not developed power as expected, either, with his ISO dipping to .098 in 2008. On the plus side, he has stolen 71 bases over the past two seasons.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Jake Odorizzi | Born: January 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The athletic Jake Odorizzi was nabbed in the supplemental first round and swayed to forgo a scholarship to the University of Louisville, thanks in part to a seven-figure contract. In a small sample size, Odorizzi had a nice pro debut in Rookie Ball with 18 hits allowed in 20.2 innings. He also posted rates of 3.92 BB/9 and 8.27 K/9. He is fairly polished for a prep player, so he could begin 2009 in A-ball.

The ’09 Sleeper: Efrain Nieves | Born: November 1989 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Yes, his ERA was a little high and he allowed 78 hits in 76 innings, but Efrain Nieves offers a lot of promise. A 2007 seventh round pick out of Puerto Rico, Nieves has improved in each of his first two pro seasons and showed exceptional control for a young player in 2008 with a walk rate of 1.18 in Rookie Ball. His strikeout rate was solid at 7.78K/9 and the slim Nieves (6’0”, 170 pounds) is working to add upper body strength, which should help add a tick or two to his 90 mph fastball.

Up Next: The Detroit Tigers