Archive for Mark DeRosa

Before the winter meetings, a couple of super-utility infielders were quickly scooped off the free agent market. Placido Polanco signed with Philadelphia for 3 years, $18 million salary. Chone Figgins signed with Seattle at 4/$36M. Mark DeRosa’s agents must be feeling pretty relaxed going forward, with the market ostensibly being set. They’ve let their demands be known that their client is looking for a deal between the Figgins/Polanco range at 3 years, $9M per. Is that fair?

Aside from the ability to play multiple positions, the similarities with DeRosa/Figgins/Polanco end. Polanco’s claim to fame is his slap-hitting and plus defense. Figgins is also plus defender, who draws walks and causes opponents trouble on the basepaths. Unlike his diminutive counterparts, DeRosa can hit the ball out of the yard without the aid of some strong wind.

DeRosa has been a late bloomer; he credits former Rangers’ hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo for his transformation into a decent hitter. Since becoming a full-time player in Texas, DeRosa has been good for a .346 wOBA. He is the quintessential “jack of all trades and the master of none” at different infield positions. Over his career, his UZR/150 is -8 at second base, -7 at third. In his time playing corner outfield, DeRosa has shined, posting an UZR/150 of +16. With the defensive spectrum, you’d normally expect a minus 7 third baseman to be a +3 in LF/RF. I suspect if he did play the outfield regularly, he’d land in the 1-5 range.

A couple of projection systems forecast DeRosa to hit the bricks in 2010. Bill James calls for a .328 wOBA. CHONE has him down for a .324. There are probably a couple of reasons for that – one is that DeRosa is going to be 35 this year. The other is DeRosa is coming of his least productive season since 2005. The blame falls on a torn tendon sheath, an injury he suffered shortly after being traded to St. Louis. Before the trade, DeRosa’s wOBA was his usual .346; afterwards, .306, dragging his overall average to .328. A torn tendon sheath is the same type of injury that caused the Brewers to DL Rickie Weeks for much of the season. Having underwent surgery, it might not be crazy to expect a .340ish wOBA again for next year, assuming he heals up properly.

So is DeRosa worth $9M per? Let’s stack this trio up against each other by WAR and see what shakes out.

 	Age	2007	2008	2009	2010 Proj.
DeRosa	35	2.6	3.8	1.7	1.9
Polanco	34	5.3	3.1	3.1	2.3
Figgins	32	3.1	2.4	6.1	3.0

(Projections courtesy of Rally)

It turns out DeRosa is the lesser of the group, and he’s the oldest. I know next to nothing about wrist injuries other than they don’t sound like very much fun, but let’s take the rosy view that DeRosa will be healthy in ’10 and bump him to 2.3 WAR. If we presume $4.4M per win in 2010, 4.7 in 2011 and 5 in 2012 and the normal regression, then the price for DeRosa would be $25, not $27. Now in reality, who wants a 37 year old Mark DeRosa on their team in 2012, even if you do presume good health?

My guess is DeRosa signs for somewhere in the neighborhood of 2/$15m, but the Giants are rumored to have a strong interest. Knowing Sabean’s fondness for players past their prime, DeRosa might get his wish.

How do you think Mark DeRosa will play in 2010? Enter your projection for him here!

The Cleveland Indians and St. Louis Cardinals organizations officially closed the book on the Mark DeRosa trade when right-hander Jess Todd was sent to Cleveland on Sunday as the Player to be Named Later. The Indians also received second-year reliever Chris Perez, 24, when the trade originally occurred on June 27, 2009.

The addition of Todd to the deal swings this trade in Cleveland’s favor, even if you don’t consider the wrist injury to DeRosa (torn tendon sheath), which has slowed the veteran infielder. Yes, DeRosa is a valuable player, but both Perez and Todd have set-up man and/or closer potential in the back end of Cleveland’s bullpen. These are not just two right-handed, middle-relief pitchers. Perez, a former supplemental first round draft pick, already has eight career saves in 78 MLB games. DeRosa, 34, is also a free agent after the season.

Todd, a second-round pick from 2007, has saved 24 games in triple-A this season. Last year, the 23-year-old hurler made 24 starts over three minor league levels and posted solid numbers. He performed both roles in college, as well, and has the potential to develop into a No. 3 Major League starter, if Cleveland chooses to place him back in the starting rotation.

Todd’s numbers in triple-A this season as a reliever have been excellent. In 49 innings, he’s allowed 39 hits with a walk rate of 2.39 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 10.84. He’s also allowed just three home runs and he’s limited opposing batters to a line-drive rate of 14%. His repertoire includes a plus cutter, a fastball that can touch 94 mph, and a good slider.

Cleveland paid a reasonable price to acquire DeRosa this past off-season from the Chicago Cubs. I took a look back at the trade last week. The Indians essentially gave up one B-level pitching prospect in Jeff Stevens, and two C-level pitching prospects in Chris Archer and John Gaub. All three prospects, though, have seen their values rise in 2009. In trading DeRosa mid-season, the Indians got back a young MLB reliever with closer potential (and experience) and a low A- or high B-level prospect in Todd (as well as half a season of DeRosa’s production). In other words, Cleveland bought low on DeRosa and then sold high on the veteran. The Indians did not win just one DeRosa trade; it won both.

Prior to the 2009 season, the Chicago Cubs traded infielder Mark DeRosa to the Cleveland Indians for three players that fell into the B- or C-level prospects category. DeRosa was then traded from Cleveland to St. Louis midway through the season when Cleveland fell out of the playoff hunt (for big-league reliever Chris Perez and a PTBNL). Let’s see how those three prospects from the initial trade are doing in the Chicago system.

Jeff Stevens: Stevens is the first player from the trio to have an impact at the MLB level for the Cubs. The right-handed reliever has yet to allow a run in four innings of work. In triple-A, he had a 2.18 ERA (3.03 FIP) with 25 hits allowed in 41.1 innings of work. Stevens could end up as a key arm in the bullpen as the club races for a playoff spot in 2009. ETA: Now

John Gaub: The southpaw began the year in double-A where he allowed 19 hits in 28.2 innings of work with a walk rate of 5.34 BB/9 but a strikeout rate of 12.56 K/9. Gaub, 24, has now allowed one hit in 5.2 triple-A innings, with three walks and four Ks. In his career, left-handers are hitting just .158 against him, so he could have a career as a LOOGY if he cannot sharpen his command and control. ETA: Mid 2010

Chris Archer: This 20-year-old right-hander has moved very slowly through minor league baseball, due mainly to his poor control. This season in low-A, Archer has allowed just 50 hits in 71.2 innings. He does, though, have a walk rate of 5.53 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 10.93 K/9. He has the potential to be a quality starter, but if the control does not improve, he’ll end up as a middle reliever. ETA: Late 2011

In these types of trades, where you go for quantity over quality, you’re basically hoping to hit on one of the three prospects. All three players in this swap, though, have shown improvements since coming over to Chicago from Cleveland. This trade is a perfect (and rare) example of what can happen when a general manager executes a successful trade of a veteran player who has just one year left on his existing contract.

At best, DeRosa will go on the free agent market as a B-level free agent, which will earn the Indians Cardinals one supplemental first round draft pick in the 2010 draft, if DeRosa signs with another club (and St. Louis offers him arbitration). The trio of Stevens, Gaub and Archer is certainly worth much more than that.

That loud collective groan you heard over the weekend was the sound of Cub fans reacting to one of their favorite players getting traded to their hated division rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals. When Mark DeRosa was moved to the Cleveland Indians for a trio of C grade pitchers, it was a salary clearing move to enable the Cubs to sign Milton Bradley, who has predictably been unable to stay in the lineup, and over the weekend was called a piece of excrement (to keep it PG) by his manager for his “shenanigans”. Before trading DeRosa, the Cubs signed Aaron Miles, lord of the .228 wOBA. Good times in Cub Town.

The Cardinals gave up one pitcher that is worth more than the three the Indians traded to obtain DeRosa’s services by trading Chris Perez, who has been regarded by most prospect watchers as a top 100 talent. He was all but anointed to be the St. Louis closer headed into the season, but wasn’t quite able to nail down the job. Depending on how you view Perez is how you evaluate this trade, and of course there is the other shoe still yet to drop. Perez is a fastball/slider reliever who can brings the heat at an average of 94 MPH. To give you an idea of Perez’s “stuff”, here’s his movement chart from 5/18/09.

With two above average offerings, the problem with Perez has never been his repertoire, but rather his command. In 113.1 innings pitched throughout the minors, Perez struck out 12 batters per nine innings, but walked 6 per nine. In the 65.1 big league innings, he’s struck out 10 batters per nine but walked 5.2 per nine and has a FIP of 4.38. It’s that lack of command that has prevented him from ascending into the high leverage innings, and he lost his manager’s trust this year, with an average leverage index of a .84, compared with an LI of 1.34 the previous season.

If the Indians can coax Perez into throwing more strikes, they’ll have a good, cheap high-leverage reliever under team control for the next five years, making this deal a real win. If that doesn’t happen, he’s basically another Kyle Farnsworth, which still has some value, but isn’t exactly a rare commodity.

Mark DeRosa is a La Russa guy if there ever was one, in that he’s a veteran who can play a bunch of different positions, and the good news for Cardinal fans is he can actually hit a little bit. With Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick and Chris Duncan slumping at the same time and Troy Glaus still on the shelf, the Cardinals in sore need of some run production. DeRosa is not a world-beater, but is projected to hit for a .348 wOBA the rest of the season, and he will probably be playing third base more often than not. The Cardinals are getting a .296 wOBA from the position, so they’ll gladly take it.

DeRosa’s not a plus defender at 3B by any stretch (-8 UZR per 150 games career), but neither was Joe Thurston. The last three seasons DeRosa’s been near a 3 win player or better, and should give the Cardinals about ~1-1.5 WAR the rest of the way. In a division in which the cellar-dwelling Pirates are just five games out, that could mean a world of difference for the Cardinals.

The Cardinals may have paid a stiffer price than they’d like by giving up their “future closer” for a half a season’s rental, but chances are Perez’s command never quite comes around, and they still would have been driven to the market once Ryan Franklin’s magic closer beard gets shaved off, or when he becomes a free agent in 2010, whichever comes first. I have to also think this trade was made not to just get DeRosa, but to keep him away from Milwaukee and Chicago, who also were expressing an interest.

If you’ve taken an introductory math class, you’ve probably seen the bell curve graph that explains how the distribution of things are grouped around the average and thinner at the extremes. National League second baseman have decided to band together and disprove normal distribution in 2008, however.

As a group, they are hitting .267/.335/.415 for a .750 OPS. Normal distribution would suggest that we’d find a cluster of players with an OPS between .700 and .800, but in reality, only one of the 13 qualified second baseman falls in that range – Luis Castillo. The other twelve are split into two distinct groups – tremendous and terrible. This morning, we look at the guys excelling, and tonight, we’ll look at those who are dragging the average down.

We’ve talked about the amazing years Chase Utley and Dan Uggla are having. Both are having historically tremendous seasons for a second baseman, and they’re mortal locks to represent the NL at the all-star game. But behind those two MVP candidates are four pretty good players in their own right.

Orlando Hudson: .303/.372/.503, 0.82 WPA/LI
Brandon Phillips: .287/.336/.529, 0.55 WPA/LI
Kelly Johnson: .299/.362/.495, 0.34 WPA/LI
Mark DeRosa: .297/.384/.449, 0.66 WPA/LI

All of these guys are having seasons that would create a strong case for an all-star bid in any other year. Hudson and Phillips both add terrific defense to their offensive value, while Johnson and DeRosa continue to be the under the radar stars for their respective teams. You really can’t go wrong with any of these six guys, as all of them are having tremendously valuable seasons.