Archive for Mark Fidrych All-Stars

As the reader will undoubtedly imagine, Carson Cistulli receives quite a bit of fan mail here at FanGraphs Headquarters. Some of it (i.e. the fan mail) is just your usual, garden variety-type stuff. “Big up yourself,” people write, or “Sweet jokes”: that sort of thing. Some of it, I’m a little embarrassed to admit, is — how do I say this exactly? — is of an intimate nature. This sort of parcel — because that’s how it arrives — frequently contains some variety of lady’s undergarment accompanied by a note that proposes, in no uncertain terms, how the author and I might pass a weekend, and in what ways, exactly, we might contort our respective bodies. I won’t say I dislike these missives, but they do challenge my modesty.

Regardless of these matters, almost all the correspondence I’ve been receiving lately has led to the same question: “When, oh when, can we expect the thrilling conclusion to the All-Joy Team?”

Right now, is my triumphant response. Just below these words.

A note before we begin: owing to the nature the five sacred criteria, the All-Joy Team is by definition, a work in progress. Just as one can neither take the blue from the sky nor put the wind in one’s own pocket, so, too, is it impossible to truly conclude the formation of the All-Joy Team.

UTIF: Zack MacPhee, Arizona State

On a recent edition of the pod, Messrs Allen, Cameron, and Smith each summarily rejected the notion that scrappy wunderkind Zack MacPhee would make even a single All-Star appearance during what I can only imagine will be a long and important Major League career.

In related news, the triumvirate also confessed to “kinda liking the Redcoats” in the American Revolution and also “not really minding the shadowy spectre of Communism.” Probably vegetarian, all of them.

Anyway, through 23 games so far this college season, the sophomore MacPhee is slashing .459/.564/.865 to go along with 9 triples, 4 homers, a BB:K of 18:8, and a stolen base record of 10/10. I believe the word you’re looking for is “Booyakasha!”

UTOF: Peter Bourrrrrrjos, Los Angeles (AL)

On account of my status around here as Semi-Reliable Copyeditor*, I have access to most of the writing you see on the site before it goes live. So one thing I know that most everyone else in the world does not is that, in an early version of Erik Manning’s celebration of Angel farmhand Bourjos, the former appended to the body of that post, “Peter! I heart you real bad! Call me: 555-1234!”

*Which reminds me: in the event that the reader happens upon any usage errors in these electronic pages, he should feel free to — instead of harrassing the author — just email me at ccistulli@yahoo.com.

A couple notes on that. First, having had to call him for pod-related reasons, I can verify that Mr. Manning’s phone number does, indeed, include a 555 exchange. This is mostly to do with the fact that Erik Manning is an imaginary person, merely one of the seven or eight pseudonyms under which Dark Overlord David Appelman conducts his business*. Second, and more relevant to this discussion, is the fact that Bourjos really is a fascinating player. Not only did he improve his plate discipline dramatically from 2008 to 2009, but — more interestingly — he appears to be one of the better glove men in all the minors.

*Nor should you discount the fact that David Appelman is, indeed, the man writing these very words.

According to his Minor League Splits page, Bourjos has been good for somewhere around 20-30 runs per 150 games each of these past three years. This year, CHONE has him projected for 11.1 runs above average in center despite only 421 plate appearances. He appears headed to Triple-A Salt Lake to begin the season.

C: Brayan Pena, Kansas City

If you’re the sort of person who both (a) ponied up $7.95 for the Second Opinion and (b) made it to the piece entitled Fringe Benefits, then you’ll know that there’s some overlap between the All-Joy Team and the players listed in that article. The reason for this is clear: the criteria for that fake team are not so different than the ones for this other, equally fake team.

As for Pena, specifically, there’s reason to believe — given both scouting reports and Matt Klaassen’s heroic efforts — that his defense is suspect, which is why I’d feel uncomfortable making him the starter for the present Team. That said, his plate discipline, rate of contact, and power would likely place him among the league’s better offensive backstops were he given a starting position. On account of he’s playing for the Royals, and on account of how that team has decided to give Jason Kendall the majority of PAs at catcher, this will very likely not be Pena’s year.

SP: Colby Lewis, Texas

It’s a truth universally acknowledged that, in certain extreme cases, the only honorable way for two virile men to resolve their differences is by means of a dance battle. That being the case, the reader might very well be seeing Marc “Prospect Maven” Hulet and Carson “America’s Sweetheart” Cistulli involved in an elaborate brand of fisticuffs before too long.

The reason for our dispute? Colby “Big in Japan” Lewis. Hulet contends that Lewis is merely a Quad-A sort whose silly K:BB numbers in the NPB (369:46 in 354.1 IP) is merely the product of inferior competition. I contend that Hulet is full of it. What “it” is, I can’t say for sure, but I wouldn’t sprinkle it on my morning cereal.

In any case, CHONE calls for Lewis to post a 3.99 ERA across 167 IP this season.

SP: Gio Gonzalez, Oakland
SP: Felipe Paulino, Houston
SP: Freddy Garcia, Chicago (AL)

In case you missed it the first time, I sent a whole bunch of nerdy love letters to both of these guys’ peripheral numbers back in December. Furthermore, I intimated to every liberal American (via their online meeting den) that, were Brian Moehler to win a starting role over Felipe Paulino, I’d commit a very public suicide in protest.

Before you have time even to ask the question, “That thing about suicide he just wrote, is that decidedly sans taste?” allow me to answer immediately: yes and no. Yes, because people have actually committed very public suicides in support of actually meaningful causes. But also, no, because for Houston — a club with little hope for playoff baseball this season — for a club like that not to give a young player an extended look.

Of course, it will give us more reason to make fun of the Houston Astros. But I’m quoting myself when I say that snark isn’t an end in itself; it’s just the mode to which we resort when we are powerless to protest in any other way.

As for Garcia, he generated the highest percentage of whiffs on balls offered at outside the zone. It’d be nice to see him put a season together.

RP: R.J. Swindle, Tampa Bay

Swindle pitched at the Triple-A All-Star game last year, and struck out Colorado farmhand Jorge Padilla on a 55-mph curvepiece. That’s enough for me to hire him for LOOGY work.

Nor am I the only one who thinks so. Steve Slowinsk of D-Rays Bay is on this particular boat, as well:

At the end of the “Cult Classics” piece, I decided that Kelly Shoppach would most likely become my cult hero this season since we’ve been missing a larger-than-life swing ever since Jonny Gomes left. Somehow, though, I had completely forgotten about another player that easily climbs to the top of my “Cult Hero” meter: R.J. Swindle. We’ve discussed Swindle here on DRB before but for those unfamiliar with him, Swindle is a side-armed lefty reliever that hits 84 MPH with his fastball and 55 MPH with his curveball. While the obvious comparison to Casey Fossum (!!) can be made, Swindle is actually good.

Yeah, so it turns out that, anytime he’s pitched at least 17 innings at a particular level, Swindle has posted a FIP below 3.00. All that’s earned him is 11.1 Major League innings. Come on, people! Give both peace and R.J. Swindle a chance.

RP: Mark Lowe, Seattle
RP: Lance Cormier, Tampa Bay
RP: Burke Badenhop, Florida

Just as in real baseball, relievers are a fungible group for All-Joy consideration, too. Translation: these picks could change at the drop of a 59/50-brand baseball cap. So, instead of getting super-attached to my last two relievers, I’m just using these picks as an excuse to celebrate some sweet Pitch f/x work that Jeremy Greenhouse has been doing lately over at Baseball Analysts.

In the event that you haven’t spied with your little eye Greenhouse stuff, you should abso-frigging-lutely get yourself over there, stat. In the meantime, here’s what you need to know about it: Greenhouse, piggy-backing on some cool work by Chris Moore at the selfsame site, has been looking recently at the best pitches in baseball per Pitch f/x data. If you’re suspicious, that’s fine. I maybe was, too. But on account of the numbers confirm that All-Joyer Kevin Jepsen is awesome, I became a convert pretty quickly.

The guys I have listed — Lowe, Cormier, and Badenhop — have the most improved pitch, best cutter, and best changepiece, respectively. I’m not sure I’m burning on fire to see them this year, but this definitely raises my curiosity level.

All this brings us to a complete 25-man roster. Behold the joy:

C	Kurt Suzuki
1B	Brian Myrow
2B	Kelly Johnson
3B      Alex Gordon
SS	Ben Zobrist
LF	Chris Heisey
CF	Ryan Sweeney
RF	Daniel Nava
DH      Juan Francisco
B	Adam Rosales
B	Zack MacPhee
B	Peter Bourjjjjjjos	
B	Brayan Pena

SP	Colby Lewis
SP	Gio Gonzalez
SP	Felipe Paulino
SP	Freddy Garcia
SP	Billy Buckner 
Swing	Jason Godin
RP	Brandon League
RP	Kevin Jepsen
RP	R.J. Swindle
RP	Mark Lowe
RP	Lance Cormier
RP	Burke Badenhop

It’s neither heaven, nor Iowa: it’s the All-Joy Team!

On today’s episode: Debaucherous Hitter.

Sensical? Not entirely. Intriguing? Duh!

DH: Juan Francisco, Cincinnati

I neither subscribe to, nor am I able to advocate, that ethic described most commonly as the Work Hard, Play Hard lifestyle. Ideally, one needn’t distinguish between his work and play. Ideally, one enjoys his work to such a degree that he needn’t “play hard” so’s to — as famous Belgian detective Hercule Poirot would say — “blow off ze steams.” Obviously, this is a rare feat. To pay da billz, we’re often required to perform the tedious*. But even in such cases where one must toil grievously to bring home the bacon — or some other, similarly delicious pork product — there still oughtn’t be a need to send oneself into oblivion.

*Like wash David Appelman’s car, for example. Sheesh, that guy.

That said, there are times when unbridled hedonism is called for. There are times when it feels good to find oneself awake at 5:30 a.m., having imbibed all manner of adult sodas, musing recklessly on life, the universe, and everything. Not every weekend, obviously. (That would be trouble both for one’s liver and career prospects.) But once or twice a year, maybe, it feels good to loosen one’s collar and behave irresponsibly. There’s something cathartic about it that allows the reveler in question to return to bidness as usual after the episode (and subsequent hangover) have passed.

Juan Francisco, I will argue, is the baseballing equivalent of such a catharsis.

For the sabermetrically oriented, Juan Francisco represents basically the antithesis of an ideal batter. His approach at the plate is precisely the opposite of that one employed by most successful major league batters. Over 1982 minor league PAs, Francisco has struck out 442 times (22.3%) while walking only 72 (3.8%)*. He did sport a career-high 0.22 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 464 Double-A PAs last year, but to call that improvement is damning with the faintest of praises. In short, Francisco possesses almost nothing in the way of plate discipline, and even though he’s young, he’s got more than a couple miles to go before his hacking ways sleep.

*Let CHONE do the talking: Francisco’s projected to bat .262/.290/.467 this year.

Yet, one thing he does have is power*. And that power, combined with his recklessness, is, in some way, the reason to watch him. Is Francisco likely to be a great help to Cincinnati this season? No. Nor, were I a Reds fans, would I care to see him anywhere near the big league roster. As a neutral supporter and card-carrying member of the Fidrych Institute, though, the Reds’ win-loss record is of little concern to me. (And, seriously, Francisco poses much less a threat to the Reds’ prospects than Dusty Baker.) Really, all I care to see is Francisco. He won’t walk softly (or at all, really), but he certainly carries the big stick.

*Watch from about second 21 of this video. More than how far he hits the ball, it’s his crazy follow-through that gets me.

With Francisco, the All-Joy Team now looks as follows:

C	Kurt Suzuki
1B	Brian Myrow
2B	Kelly Johnson
3B      Alex Gordon
SS	Ben Zobrist
LF	Chris Heisey
CF	Ryan Sweeney
RF	Daniel Nava
DH      Juan Francisco
UTIF	Adam Rosales

SP	Billy Buckner
SP	Jason Godin
RP	Brandon League
RP	Kevin Jepsen

Much like Shaquille O’Neal in his prime and/or the libidos of our nation’s politicians, one can’t stop the All-Joy Team, but only hope to contain it.

Yes, we here at the Fidrych Institute (the country’s pre-eminent joy-related think tank) have had our fingers in all manner of multimedia pies recently (comme ci, commme ca), but the luminous mystery of the All-Joy Team has never been far from our minds.

To recap, in our latest episode, we’d just elected Kelly Johnson and Adam Rosales to All-Joy status, bringing the current pre-season roster to its current state:

C	Kurt Suzuki
1B	Brian Myrow
2B	Kelly Johnson
SS	Ben Zobrist
LF	Chris Heisey
CF	Ryan Sweeney
RF	Daniel Nava
UTIF	Adam Rosales

SP	Billy Buckner
SP	Jason Godin
RP	Brandon League
RP	Kevin Jepsen

The reader will notice that, with the exception of a few positional omissions, the above bears a shocking resemblance to a field-able baseball team. Exciting, is the only word for that. Now, let’s see if we can’t clean this up.

Today, you get a third baseman; tomorrow, a designated hitter.

3B: Alex Gordon, Kansas City

Basketball analyst John Hollinger has coined the term “second draft” to describe the acquisition of players who (a) have, at one point, been considered prospects, (b) have fallen from prospect status, (c) have played out the duration of their rookie contracts, but (d) are still young enough so’s to make good on their early promise. Because of the extent of control that MLB organizations exert over their players, this entire cycle can actually occur before the young player escapes his arbitration years.

The Rise and Fall and Other Rise of Alex Gordon is a bad name for a book. But I think, before his tenure in Kansas City is through, it’ll be an accurate one. Even just three years ago, Gordon was receiving Wieters-esque attention from people who know what’s what. It was in that year, 2007, that Gordon was number one overall on Kevin Goldstein’s Top 100 Prospects list, number one on John Sickels’ Top 50 Hitting Prospects list, and the second overall prospect on Baseball America’s list — behind Daisuke Matsuzaka, which is kinda cheating, seeing as the latter had already been a star for a while in Japan and was 26 years old.

In light of the hype, Gordon’s freshman campaign was a relative disappointment, although still good enough for a 2.1 WAR. In his second season, he improved his batting mark to a 109 wRC+ from the 89 wRC+ he posted in his rookie season. Even with a drop in UZR and 30 fewer PAs, he still improved his WAR to 2.4. Last year he hurt his hip early in the season, and his end-of-year numbers suffered predictably. But look here: you still have a guy with at least a league-average bat, most likely an average glove at third, and a great pedigree. He’s turning 26, which means he’s got some projection left, and CHONE likes him to post a 114 wRC+ this season with exactly league-average third-basing — good for a 2.6 WAR in only 479 PAs. Not earth-shattering, sure, but good.

Gordon does have one proverbial strike against him, in that he’s a Royal. Though I don’t know of any hard evidence to support this, there’s something to be said for organizational culture, and my sense is that — and again, I’m speculating wildly — but my sense is that some players will underperform their talent level in certain situations. Obviously, Gordon’s teammate Zack Greinke is a glaring example of the exact opposite phenomenon. But I also think of a player like Felipe Lopez, who did some interesting things in Cincinnati before moving to the uber-woeful Nationals, where he proceeded to play like Willie Bloomquist*. Then, as you probably know, Lopez was sent to St. Louis, where he once again began hitting and playing like a legitimately talented player. Ditto last year, during which he posted a career-high 4.6 WAR in stints with Arizona and Milwaukee. I’m curious as to whether the baleful effects of Kansas City’s mediocrity could affect Gordon’s ability to realize his potential so long as he’s there.

*No exaggeration here. From 2006 to 2008, Lopez had a -0.1 WAR in 1354 PAs with Washington. Over the same stretch, Bloomquist registered a 0.8 WAR in 663 Mariner PAs. You could make the argument that he was protected from certain, tougher pitchers or whatever, but still.

I don’t think I’m exaggerating, reader, when I say that the study of baseball and its attendant joys is the single most important field of research in our time. It is — as we speak — the most commonly offered and pursued doctoral degree program among our nation’s universities. Not only that, but, despite these tough economic times, those same universities are actively pursuing qualified professors to meet the large and growing demand from their undergraduate communities. The Fidrych Institute — i.e. the think tank most integral to effecting joy-related policy changes — currently receives substantial funding from Republicans, Democrats, the Green Party (who, if my numbers are correct, allocated something like 37% of their annual budget to the Institute), and Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi, who, despite knowing almost nothing about baseball, made a generous contribution directly from the pockets of working Italians. Finally, you don’t need me to tell you that President Obama’s recent initiative to make baseballing/joy-related curriculum a greater part of elementary education — well, it’s a testament to the capacity of the subject to capture the imaginations of every man, woman, child, and whatever Mickey Rourke is.

One thing that has recently come to light from the surfeit of excellent research appearing all over the place — a potentially joy-inducing quality not covered by the Very Hallowed Taxonomy — is the effect that player movement might have on our interest in a player. Certainly, this is part of the reason we anticipate great joy from new Mariner (and All-Joy reliever) Brandon League, who has gone from being a boring old Blue Jay to one of Jack Zduriencik’s Chosen Few.

It’s probably fair to say that player movement alone isn’t enough for All-Joy consideration, but when it appears in tandem with another joy-inducing quality or two, it’s enough to inspire what Emily Dickinson called the thing with feathers (and, no, it’s not Mickey Rourke).

Here are two players who’ve changed teams this offseason, with their respective All-Joy credentials.

2B: Kelly Johnson, Arizona (2,5)
Johnson has always been on the fringes of All-Joy contention, anyway. For one, His 13% walk rate and 121 wRC+ in 2007 — from a second baseman, no less — are notable. The fact that he posted those numbers after missing all of 2006 due to Tommy John surgery makes his 2007 production even more significant. Also, there’s the fact that he made the shift to second base from left field — which, even if his second base numbers haven’t been great (-7.4 UZR/150 over the last three years), is still worthy of comment.

What has catapulted Johnson into the All-Joy spotlight entering the 2010 season? Two things, really. For one, there’s the issue of his batted ball numbers. After posting BABIPs of .330 and .344 in 2007 and 2008, that number fell to .249 in 2009. Secondly, there’s the move to Arizona’s Chase Field. According to the most recent edition of the Bill James Handbook, Turner Field has had park indices of 97 and 94 for left-handed batting average and home runs, respectively. Chase Field rates as a 103 and 115 in the same categories. The likelihood of Johnson hitting something like 2007’s 16 home runs is pretty good, I think.

UTIF: Adam Rosales, Oakland (2,4,5)
As a 26-year-old in the International League last year, Rosales posted an MLE either of .297/.347/.505 (Minor League Splits) or .309/.373/.573 (Baseball Prospectus), depending on who you believe. A certain type of reader might cite the paucity of plate appearances (125) and cite sample size issue. To which gesture I’d reply: “Stop it with your Tyranny of Reason!”

CHONE projects Rosales to have something like a league-average bat, and, provided that TotalZone isn’t a lying liarface from Liarville, it appears as though Rosales can handle shortstop. Now that he’s in Oakland, the chances of him securing some playing time have probably improved. Yeah, he’ll still be a back-up at short and second, but at least he’ll be the primary back-up. That was less the case in Cincy, where he had Paul Janish sticking around and the specter of Dusty Baker with which to contend.

For those keeping score at home, here’s the current All-Joy Roster:

C	Kurt Suzuki
1B	Brian Myrow
2B	Kelly Johnson
SS	Ben Zobrist
LF	Chris Heisey
CF	Ryan Sweeney
RF	Daniel Nava
UTIF	Adam Rosales

SP	Billy Buckner
SP	Jason Godin
RP	Brandon League
RP	Kevin Jepsen