Archive for Matt Cain

Cody Ross isn’t bald, he just emits Awesome from his head. – chatter Tony
Cody Ross is the answer to every question. – chatter TexasRanger

Ah, but this is the Philly review, so that will be enough of the Ross love here. Which is good, because we don’t have to cover the Great Bruce Bochy Lineup Disaster either, especially since it turned out okay for the Giants. Instead, we’ll reach back into the chat to find a couple quotes that offered real-time feedback on Ted Barrett’s strike zone:

Aren’t you noticing a completely different strike zone being called for both pitchers in this game. Matt Cain is getting inside, outside, and low. Have not seen those same pitches call for Cole Hamels – chatter T Barrett
Maybe the complaints are based on when Cole get squeezed rather than quantity. The non-strike 3 to Sanchez was a big call (like Halladay’s against Burrell in game 1). – chatter Andy

So we turn to the pictures – from Brooks Baseball – to try and get the full story:

At first glance, there’s reason to doubt Barret’s zone. There are five clear strikes on the outside the zone for the Giants, and only two that are as far outside the zone for the Phillies. If we count all of the “wrong” calls inside and out, we get eight called strikes that weren’t strikes and four strikes that were not called strikes for the Giants. Then there’s four called strikes that weren’t strikes and five strikes that weren’t called for the Phillies. It’s the sort of thing that seems both real and yet somehow not completely significant. But a lot of this is in the eye of the beholder, as these chat responses to the posted strike zone show:

looks pretty even to me – chatter Evan
Whole camels could fit inside Cain’s sz – chatter bowie
mostly shows me that cain did a better job of hitting that left side of the zone. he peppered a lot of pitches very close to the line – chatter Giants

Ah-hah. The truth is in the eye of the beholder often, but let’s try to say something true about this game: “Though the strike zone may have favored the Giants in a slight way and put pressure on Cole Hamels in key moments, the game was won by timely hitting by the Giants and the failure of the Phillies’ batters to come through in similarly tough situations.” You can quote me on that.

Let’s end this with a look at the highest leverage moments in the game, and the results of the at-bat.

Last night, we took a look at the four games from 2000 or later in which a pitcher accrued a WPA of -1.0 or worse, thereby costing his team one or more wins in a single game. Prior to that, our discussion centered around the brilliant games of Cody Ross and Kurt Suzuki, who, in the span of three weeks managed to become the only two offensive players to post a WPA equal to, or greater than, +1.0 in a single game. Unfortunately, no pitcher in 2008 had a performance good enough to be worth one or more wins, but there were still some fantastic outings. Today, we will examine the ten best pitching performances of 2008, sorted by the WPA earned.

#10: Bronson Arroyo, 8/26 @ Houston
Arroyo might not be an all star but, over the last four years, has been average at worst (-0.12 WPA this year), while logging 200+ innings each season. His BABIP, LOB, BB/9, and WHIP have trended in the downward direction, but even pitchers in the decline phase can toss out a gem here and there. On August 26, in Houston’s bandbox stadium, Arroyo went the distance, earning a complete game, surrendering just five hits and one run, walking two and striking out three. While it may not seem all that amazing, he earned a WPA of 0.660 for his efforts, the tenth most individual game WPA for pitchers this season.

#9: Roy Oswalt, 9/6 @ Colorado
If you thought Arroyo may have had a tough time pitching a gem in Houston, how could Oswalt pull off an even better game in Coors Field? Roy had an interesting season, getting off to an extremely un-Oswalt-like start, before finishing extremely strong, racking up some pretty impressive numbers. His ERA and FIP may have been higher in years past, but his xFIP, which normalizes the home run rate, is actually right in line with these seasons. On September 6, Roy was in the midst of a brilliant streak of games; none, however, were as brilliant as his performance against the Rockies. On the day, he pitched a 9-inning complete game shutout, giving up just one hit, walking two, and striking out six. All told, his individual game WPA of 0.676 takes the ninth spot on our list.

#8: James Shields, 5/9 vs. Los Angeles Anaheim Angels of California
In 2008, James Shields continued to stake claim as the Rays #1 starter with a season very similar to his breakout 2007 campaign. He pitched 215 innings in both years, posted FIP marks between 3.82 and 3.86, ranged from 1.51-1.67 in BB/9, and produced identical .292 BABIPs. On May 9th, home against the Angels—ironically, this is the first home game on our list so far—Shields was so dominant that dominant doesn’t even describe his performance. He tossed a complete game shutout, allowing just one hit. Excellent with control, Shields walked nobody and struck out eight Halos hitters. His WPA? 0.685, good enough for the eighth best pitched game of the season. How could it get better than that you might be thinking, but hold on, we’re moving on up.

#7: Jeff Karstens, 8/6 @ Arizona
I remember a few years back, while working minor league baseball telecasts for CN8, getting to see Jeff Karstens pitch on a regular basis. He always seemed to have the poise and “stuff” that should translate into major league success. Suffice it to say, things have not panned out the way that I, or other Yankees fans, imagined, and Jeff found himself a member of the Pirates in 2008. He did post a 4.03 ERA in his nine starts, but he K/9 was ridiculously low and his 4.77 FIP does a better job of explaining his performance level. Still, in his first two starts, he looked fantastic. On August 1st, he held the Cubs scoreless over six innings, surrendering only five hits. In his next start, against the Diamondbacks, he pitched a two-hit, complete game shutout, with two walks and four strikeouts. Though this game does not feel better than Oswalt’s or Shields’, Karstens earned a WPA of 0.695. Couple that with his 0.360 in the Cubs game, and Jeff was worth over one whole win after his first two starts of the season. A shame it all went downhill from there…

#6: Matt Cain, 7/24 vs. Washington
For those who have followed my writings over the last year and a half or so, you will know that I have some crazy manlove for Matt Cain. I don’t know if it’s due to the criminally low run support he receives, or how dominant he looks most of the time, but I tend to watch all of his starts, which is something I only did (watch starts for non-Phillies players) for Greg Maddux, and Sabathia’s crazy stretch this season. Overall, Cain once more logged 200+ innings of performance under 4.00 in the ERA and FIP department, with a K/BB above 2.0. Unfortunately, he rarely is credited with a win because his team refuses to support him. On July 24, he actually did record a win, pitching a complete game shutout against the Nationals. Cain surrendered just four hits, walked nary a hitter, and fanned four, earning a 0.707 WPA.

Tonight we will continue by examining the five best pitching performances of 2008.

Last year, Matt Cain posted one of the best 7-16 seasons of all time, clearly producing numbers above the level expected from a record like that. He would give up two or less runs and and lose or fail to record a decision more often than win, which speaks volumes to the offense “supporting” him. This year, he got off to a similar start, losing games in which he pitched poorly, but not winning the games he deserved to win. With a month and a half left he has already surpassed last year’s total with eight wins, but his record still is not indicative of what the rest of his numbers suggest.

He has a 3.57 ERA supported by a 3.48 FIP. Though he walks hitters to the tune of 3.62 per nine innings, he is pretty hard to hit, which is currently resulting in a 1.28 WHIP. On top of that, he rarely gives up home runs, as evidenced by his 5.7% HR/FB that is very similar to his numbers in this metric over his entire career. For the record, league average is around eleven percent.

This year, he has given up two earned runs or less in 13 starts, and gone just 6-1 in that span. Though better than his results in 2007, that means there are six no-decisions that could have or should have been wins. Though I ultimately don’t care about the W-L record, most of the country does, and Cain’s reputation is likely hurt outside of San Francisco or NL West teams because of this. He has seemingly perfected the art form of pitching well enough to win while losing or not getting any decision.

His 1.62 WPA/LI and 1.54 REW are solid for this year, but nowhere near the top of the leaderboards. He has been the perfect compliment to Tim Lincecum and a great number two pitcher. For those curious, his WPA/LI is one win lower than Lincecum and his REW is about two wins lower. Still, the tag team nicknamed “LinceCain” is one reason Giants fans should feel happy about something from this season.

Cain is a very good pitcher… not a league best righty by any means, but with some better run support, his reputation would be much stronger amongst baseball fans. He could conceivably receive, and deservedly so, a huge contract when it is free agency time despite a potential W-L record 20 games below .500.

Anyone familiar with my work, be it here or elsewhere, can tell you that there is no pitcher I have covered more in my time as an analyst than Matt Cain. The Giants righty has been a favorite of mine since entering the big leagues in 2005 and I have always felt somewhat sorry for the guy. See, Cain generally pitches quite well though it fails to matter due to the poor quality of the Giants team he plays for. Quite simply, they do not score runs for the guy.

In his young career, Cain has a 3.87 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, right around league average 72.0% LOB rate, K/BB above 2, opposing BA of .229, and BABIP of .276. Despite these very solid numbers his career record is a measly 26-35.

Last year, Cain allowed a maximum of two earned runs in 18 of his 32 starts, yet managed to go 5-7 with 6 no-decisions in those games. The bullpen blew five of his potential wins as well, giving him one of the, if not the, best 7-16 seasons in history. This year has been slightly better in that department: In 11 of 17 starts he has allowed a maximum of three earned runs and gone 4-1 in those games. Still, six no-decisions in games of that quality is a bit high.

In 2005, of all starting pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, his 2.53 RS/9 (run support per nine innings) was the lowest in both the NL and MLB. In 2006 it evened out a bit, to the tune of 5.10 RS/9, right around the middle of the pack. Last year, his 3.51 RS/9 was again the worst in the NL and MLB. And this year, his 4.10 RS/9 ranks the 11th lowest in the NL. All told, over the last three calendary years, Cain has received 4.10 runs of support per nine innings pitched, the lowest of anyone.

Second place in that span? Why, Ian Snell of the Pirates… at 4.56 RS/9. Cain has received just about a half-run per nine innings less of support than his closest “competitor.” The average run support for pitchers qualifying for inclusion was 5.01, meaning Cain is supported almost a full run less per nine innings than the average starting pitcher in this span. And, with the Giants seemingly having no idea what they are doing from an offensive standpoint, there is very little to suggest something like this could drastically change. By the time Cain can hit the free agent market he could be a heavily coveted pitcher with a career W-L to date around 20-30 games under .500.

Aaron Harang lost Tuesday night, despite pitching well, continuing his general 2008 theme of solid pitching and receiving next to no run support. The loss to the Phillies dropped him to 2-8 on the season; yet, looking at all of his statistics sans W-L would lead many to believe his record would be MUCH better. In the spirit of unluckiness take a look at Harang’s 2008 stacked up next to Matt Cain‘s 2007 and Brandon Webb’s 2004:

Aaron Harang (2008)
13 GS, 88.2 IP, 94 H, 20 BB, 78 K
2-8, 3.86 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 76.1% LOB
.323 BABIP vs. .313 career BABIP
HR/FB 10.6% vs. 10.2% in 2007 and 10.5% in 2006
2.98 RS/9, 2nd Worst Run Support in NL

Matt Cain (2007)
32 GS, 200 IP, 173 H, 79 BB, 163 K
7-16, 3.65 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 72.9% LOB
.284 BABIP vs. .271 career BABIP
5.5% HR/FB vs. 7.1% in 2006 and 5.9% in 2005
3.51 RS/9, Worst Run Support in NL/MLB

Brandon Webb (2004)
35 GS, 208 IP, 194 H, 119 BB, 164 K
7-16, 3.59 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 1.50 WHIP, 71.0% LOB
.295 BABIP vs .293 career BABIP
HR/FB 15.0% vs 15.4% in 2003 (career 13.6%)
4.24 RS/9, 8th in NL

Overall, Cain and Harang seem unluckier due to Webb’s much higher FIP and rank in run support. Still, none of these three deserve the W-L records listed here, and if the Reds don’t start scoring for Harang he could easily surpass Cain in this area of unjust results.

The San Francisco Giants currently sport one of the worst offenses of all time, but have posted an 11-14 record on the strength of some quality pitching. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve probably heard of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, both of whom have been anointed by various pundits as the best young pitcher in the National League in the last year. Lincecum, in particular, is getting plaudits at the moment, as he’s off to a terrific start to the 2008 campaign, and his tiny frame and unique delivery make him interesting to watch even when he’s not dominating. However, the Giants don’t just have a big two, and there’s a guy getting lost in the hype shuffle.

See that green dot? That’s Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco’s 25 year old southpaw with a knockout slider. He’s struggled with command problems and nagging health issues around his arm, but he’s healthy now and making hitters look foolish. His fastball doesn’t have the velocity it used to have, but he makes up for it with a slider that’s among the best swing-and-miss pitches in the game.

Using that weapon, he’s reinstating himself into the discussion of potential aces hanging out in San Francisco. In fact, the K/BB ratio above makes a pretty strong argument that Sanchez is a better bet for the future than Cain, and the difference between he and Lincecum isn’t nearly as large as most people would believe.

When you’re talking about good young arms in baseball, don’t forget Jonathan Sanchez.

This is the fourth installment in a series of articles detailing Matt Cain’s starts. Based on the quality of his games pitched and his decisions or no-decisions earned, Cain’s 2007 was the unluckiest season of at least this decade. Seeing as the Giants have a bleak outlook this trend should continue.

His first three starts followed an extremely simple pattern of: good, bad, good. In pure Cain fashion, he did not receive a decision in either good game but earned the loss in his poorly pitched game. To get caught up on his season visit any of the following links:

• Cain Watch #1
• WPA, 4/1/08
• Cain Watch #2
• WPA, 4/7/08
• Cain Watch #3
• WPA, 4/12/08

He made his fourth start on April 18th, a game in which bad luck never had a chance to interfere due to Cain’s poor performance. His line of 3.2 IP, 8 H, 9 ER, 3 BB, 4 K led to the following lopsided game graph:

For the season, Cain is averaging the following rounded numbers per start: 5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 K. There has been quality as he has had two very good starts; however, his bad starts have had much more of an effect on his season to date. Let’s compare this to last April, when, through four starts, Cain had the following averages: 7.1 IP, 2.8 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. The only stagnant number is the strikeouts; everything else is worse now than a year ago. So what’s the difference?

He is throwing 57% first-pitch strikes, which is the same as last year and higher than his previous two years, but his overall percentage of strikes has dipped from 63% to 60%. Batters are swinging at 73% of his pitches, down from the 75% last year, however they are making contact 84% of the time; last year the contact rate was at 81%. Putting this together, Cain is throwing a lower percentage of strikes while maintaining his rate of first-pitch strikes, but batters are swinging less and making more contact. This helps to explain why his baserunners allowed have increased.

I’m currently building my own Pitch FX database and will begin to incorporate his data in that area into future looks at his starts. His next start is scheduled for April 23rd, when he will face-off against Greg Maddux for the second time this season, this time at the spacious Petco Park. His flyball and groundball percentages have lowered this year while his line drive percentage has risen. Though he has not given up a ton of home runs in his career, three in his first four starts shows some susceptibility; limiting his walks will help reduce two-run and three-run home runs to those of the solo variety. If he cannot rebound from this start and get onto some type of consistency track then luck will not be a factor in what will amount to a poorly pitched season.

This is something I began over at Statistically Speaking but it makes more sense to continue here at Fangraphs. Giants pitcher Matt Cain had an historically unlucky season in 2007, posting statistics similar to, if not better than, most NL starting pitchers. And yet, at the end of the season, all he had was a 7-16 record with no true consolation prize. Via my Net Luck Rating statistic–which measures the quality of decisions and no-decisions by evaluating each start as a separate commodity–it was the unluckiest season of the decade. Based on the quality of his starts and his frequency of well-pitched games Cain would have gone 16-7 in his decisions if pitchers were awarded wins for every well-pitched decision and losses for every poorly pitched decision.

Based on how bleak the outlook appears for the Giants I have every reason to believe the string of bad luck will continue. That being said I have decided to track each of his starts. To read the recaps of his first two starts, click any of the links below:

• Cain Watch #1
• WPA, 4/1/08
• Cain Watch #2
• WPA, 4/7/08

Cain’s third start of the season proved to be the perfect example of his lack of luck. Here is the graph of the game:

To recap, Cain pitched 6.2 innings, surrendering three hits and two earned runs; he also walked three and struck out five. At the time of his departure in the seventh inning Cain had a 5-2 lead. Oh, and do you see that little red dot in the graph above in between the sixth and seventh innings? If so, you read correctly: Matt Cain also hit a home run in this game.

After Cain’s departure, Jumpin’ Jack Taschner (it’s a fun nickname, admit it) hit Rico Washington before Merkin Valdez got Ryan Ludwick to fly out. After seven full innings the Giants led 5-2. Some Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey, and Erick Threets action later and the Giants found themselves extra-inning losers by a final score of 8-7. Sigh. Poor Matt Cain.

In terms of WPA, Cain contributed .286 in the pitching department and .190 in the hitting department; for the game that adds up to an accumulative WPA of .476. Considering that the winning team will add up to a .500 and that the Giants eventually lost the game, the team had to do a lot wrong to lose. A cursory scan of the bullpen WPA for the game supports that: Threets chimed in with a -.292, Walker with a -.318, and Hennessey with a -.434. The efforts of these three not only erased Cain’s efforts but doubled over in the negative direction.

This was definitely a game Cain should have gone onto win but will go down as a too-familiar great start but no-decision. For the season, Cain is now at: 3 GS, 16.2 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 12 BB, 15 K, 3.24 ERA. Based on his WPA, Clutch, and WPA/LI Cain is currently very comparable to Johan Santana. Despite pitching well in two games, and poorly in the other, he is 0-1. The saga continues.