Archive for Matt Holliday

While I’m sure they are still celebrating in St. Louis, reality is going to set in quick, as the Cardinals have a busy off-season ahead of them. Not only do they have to replace their hall-of-fame manager, but they have to decide what to do with the only first baseman the city has known for the better part of a decade: Albert Pujols.

There are numerous factors that are going to affect whether Pujols returns — and many of them difficult to quantify. Letting Pujols walk would be a public-relations nightmare, and it would certainly hurt the Cardinals at the gate – but I’m not going to pretend that I know what that magic number would be. There’s also the question of Pujols’ declining ability as he ages, and whether he will live up to what will inevitably be a contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars. While I’m sure we’ll cover that topic in depth here at FanGraphs, that’s not what I want to cover today.

What I would like to suggest might sound blasphemous, but given the construction of their current roster — and downplaying the previously mentioned factors — it might not be the worst thing in the world for the Cardinals if Pujols walks away.

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I have a strange affinity for the Home Run Derby. It spawns from watching re-runs of the old school Home Run Derby TV series, originally aired in 1960. The rules were different back then — two hitters went head-to-head, squaring off in a nine-inning “game” in which each batter got three outs per inning. If a player didn’t swing at a pitch in the zone, it counted as an out. Between turns, a batter would kick back and chat with host Mark Scott. The winner got a check for two grand and the chance to defend his title the next week against a new opponent. The list of those who competed — Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle among them — is a who’s who of all-time greats.

It’s true, the current form of the Home Run Derby doesn’t compare to its progenitor. The field of contestants doesn’t always include a cavalcade of stars. Sometimes, it seems like hitters take 20 pitches right down the middle before letting ‘er rip. And, the broadcast of the event really should come with a public service announcement imploring viewers to turn down the volume, lest they be haunted in their sleep by shrieks of “backbackbackback.”

Yet, despite its flaws, I watch intently. There’s something enthralling about those majestic moon shots. This year, the list of derby contestants includes Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Nick Swisher and Vernon Wells from the American League, and Corey Hart, Matt Holliday, Hanley Ramirez and Chris Young from the National League. While I don’t claim this will have any predictive value — having a BP coach lobbing mid-60’s fastballs down the pike is quite another thing from game conditions — I thought it would be fun to take a closer look at tonight’s contestants. Where do they hit their homers, how hard are they hit, and how far do those taters travel?

Here’s a chart showing where the HR derby competitors have gone yard this season. I listed switch-hitter Swisher’s numbers from both sides of the plate:

Not surprisingly, most of the contestants’ home run power comes to the pull side of the field. Cabrera is crushing the ball both to the pull side and the opposite field — his home run per fly ball percentage to the pull side is 65 (27.2% MLB average for RHB), and it’s 14% to the opposite side (2.8% MLB average for RHB). Hart and Ramirez have also gone to the opposite field more than most, while Ortiz and Swisher have hit a decent number of homers to center.

Courtesy of Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, here’s how the HR Derby contestants rank in terms of speed off the bat on those homers. The MLB average, for comparison’s sake, is 103.4 MPH:

Wells (106.8 MPH) leads the pack, followed by Holliday (106.1), Cabrera (105.2), Ortiz (104.2), Ramirez (104.1), Young (102.7), Swisher (102.3) and Hart (101.9).

Who’s hitting the longest homers? Hit Tracker measures the “Standard Distance” for home runs hit. From the site, here’s the definition:

The estimated distance in feet the home run would have traveled if it flew uninterrupted all the way down to field level, and if the home run had been hit with no wind, in 70 degree air at sea level. Standard distance factors out the influence of wind, temperature and altitude, and is thus the best way of comparing home runs hit under a variety of different conditions.

Here’s how the derby hopefuls rank in terms of Standard Distance homers. The MLB average is 393.8 feet:

Wells (406.5 Feet) and Holliday (406.1) again rank first and second. Ramirez (400.2), Ortiz (398.8), Cabrera (396.8), Swisher (396.4) and Young (394.5) all best the big league average, while Hart (392.5) comes in below that mark. Hart is tied for the major league lead in “Just Enough” homers, with 10. Just Enough’s, per Hit Tracker, clear “the fence by less than 10 vertical feet,” or land “less than one fence height past the fence.”

And finally, to pre-empt against any cries of “the derby screwed up his swing!,” here are the contestants’ current wOBA totals, as well as their projected rest-of-season wOBA figures from ZiPS. In other words, here’s what they have done so far, and here’s what we can reasonably expect in the second half:

Six out of eight project to hit worse in the second half. Some of these guys have greatly exceeded their previously established level of performance. Even accounting for the spike in production (ZiPS incorporates data from the current season), they figure to regress somewhat when games resume Thursday. If Hart doesn’t continue hitting bombs at a prodigious rate, it’s not because of some HR derby hex — it’s the product of regression to the mean.

Yesterday, I took a look at the two Mark DeRosa trades that Cleveland was involved in, both of which occurred within the last year. As a result, it got me thinking about the two Matt Holliday trades that also both occurred in roughly the same time period (Both DeRosa and Holliday oddly ended up with St. Louis). I was curious to see if Oakland came out on the plus side of both Holliday deals or not.

Dave Cameron and Erik Manning have both done a nice job of dissecting the Holliday trade to St. Louis, so I am not going to dwell too deeply on the trade itself. For those of you who don’t know by now, though, the Oakland Athletics received 3B/1B Brett Wallace, OF Shane Peterson, and RHP Clayton Mortensen. Wallace was St. Louis’ first-round draft pick in 2008 (13th overall), while Peterson (59th in ’08) and Mortensen (36th in ’07) were also highly regarded in college. All three players have seen their values increase since signing their initial pro contracts with the Cardinals organization.

Back on Nov. 10, 2008, Oakland general manager Billy Beane shocked baseball by acquiring Holliday from Colorado. The move was especially curious because Oakland was expected to be in rebuilding mode in 2009 and money is always an issue with the organization (The outfielder had a $13.5 million contract for 2009). But Beane obviously saw a chance to buy low (in his eyes) on a talented outfielder who could help the club contend sooner than expected in a weak American League West division. At worst, the A’s would end up with two high draft picks as compensation when Holliday headed for greener pastures as a free agent at the end of the ’09 season.

In exchange for Holliday, Oakland sent deposed closer Huston Street, left-handed starter Greg Smith, and the talented-but-frustrating young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to Colorado. Street has had a resurgence in the National League after seeing his numbers decline in his fourth season with Oakland. In 2008, he posted a 3.47 FIP. Street allowed just 58 hits in 70 innings of work, but his walk rate increased more than one walk per nine innings over his career average to 3.47 BB/9. His strikeout rate also dropped from 11.34 in 2007 to 8.87 K/9 in 2008 (although this was a number closer to his rates in 05-06).

In Colorado in ’09, batters are hitting just .195 against the 25-year-old right-hander, which is the lowest batting-average-against that Street has posted since his rookie year in ’05 (.194 average). His strikeout rate is up to 10.20 K/9, while his walk rate is back down to 2.13 BB/9. Street’s line-drive rate is also down about three percent. His fastball is almost 2 mph harder than it was in 2007-08.

Smith, meanwhile, has had a terrible season filled with inconsistencies and injuries. After making 32 starts and pitching 190.1 innings in his rookie season for Oakland in 2008, the left-hander has yet to appear in a big-league game this year. The former sixth-round draft pick (by Arizona) has made just five triple-A starts, while also appearing in both high-A and double-A while on rehab. In his five triple-A starts, Smith has allowed 20 hits and eight walks in 23 innings of work. He also has a 5.50 FIP and has allowed four homers. Even as his rather successful 2008 campaign came to a close, a lot of baseball watchers were crying, “Fluke!”

Still only 23, Gonzalez has spent most of the 2009 season in triple-A after spending the majority of ’08 in the Majors with Oakland, where he hit a disappointing .242/.273/.361 in 302 at-bats. This year, the left-handed hitter has batted .339/.418/.630 with 10 homers in 192 at-bats. Recently recalled to Colorado, he is hitting .225/.288/.373 with one homer and seven steals in 102 at-bats. Gonzalez’ poor approach at the plate (and lack of patience) has played a large part in his weak MLB numbers.

Colorado really did not get as much value for Holliday as it likely had hoped. The organization received a solid, young closer with a lot of experience, a future left-handed reliever, and a toolsy young outfielder that is looking more Delmon Young than Justin Upton. With that said, comparing the three players that Oakland received for Holliday and the three players that the organization gave up for Holliday, it looks pretty even at this point especially when you consider how Street’s stability in the bullpen has helped Colorado remain in the playoff hunt.

Wallace, though, has the potential to significantly overshadow the loss of Street if he can live up to his potential, but that could take a few years. Even so, you have to figure that a lot of organizations would trade Street for Wallace, straight up. Trading Smith and Gonzalez for Peterson and Mortensen is a bit of a toss up, and really depends on how much you believe in Gonzalez. If he reaches his potential, he could be an impact player. Both Peterson and Mortensen look like complementary parts, but they should both end up being more valuable than Smith.

In the end, it’s hard to say if Oakland came out on the winning end of the two Holliday deals or not. In the long run, though, my gut says that they did.

The Cleveland Indians and St. Louis Cardinals organizations officially closed the book on the Mark DeRosa trade when right-hander Jess Todd was sent to Cleveland on Sunday as the Player to be Named Later. The Indians also received second-year reliever Chris Perez, 24, when the trade originally occurred on June 27, 2009.

The addition of Todd to the deal swings this trade in Cleveland’s favor, even if you don’t consider the wrist injury to DeRosa (torn tendon sheath), which has slowed the veteran infielder. Yes, DeRosa is a valuable player, but both Perez and Todd have set-up man and/or closer potential in the back end of Cleveland’s bullpen. These are not just two right-handed, middle-relief pitchers. Perez, a former supplemental first round draft pick, already has eight career saves in 78 MLB games. DeRosa, 34, is also a free agent after the season.

Todd, a second-round pick from 2007, has saved 24 games in triple-A this season. Last year, the 23-year-old hurler made 24 starts over three minor league levels and posted solid numbers. He performed both roles in college, as well, and has the potential to develop into a No. 3 Major League starter, if Cleveland chooses to place him back in the starting rotation.

Todd’s numbers in triple-A this season as a reliever have been excellent. In 49 innings, he’s allowed 39 hits with a walk rate of 2.39 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 10.84. He’s also allowed just three home runs and he’s limited opposing batters to a line-drive rate of 14%. His repertoire includes a plus cutter, a fastball that can touch 94 mph, and a good slider.

Cleveland paid a reasonable price to acquire DeRosa this past off-season from the Chicago Cubs. I took a look back at the trade last week. The Indians essentially gave up one B-level pitching prospect in Jeff Stevens, and two C-level pitching prospects in Chris Archer and John Gaub. All three prospects, though, have seen their values rise in 2009. In trading DeRosa mid-season, the Indians got back a young MLB reliever with closer potential (and experience) and a low A- or high B-level prospect in Todd (as well as half a season of DeRosa’s production). In other words, Cleveland bought low on DeRosa and then sold high on the veteran. The Indians did not win just one DeRosa trade; it won both.

Rumors are flying throughout the twitterverse that St. Louis is doing some Holliday shopping, and it is expected to come at the expense of their top prospect, Brett Wallace.

Brett Wallace is not-so affectionately dubbed “the Walrus” by scouts for his 6-1, 245 pear-shaped body. Scouts do love his bat though; he was considered to be the best pure hitter of the 2008 draft. In just a season and a half of pro-ball, Wallace has put up a .308/.392/.469 line. This year he started slowly for Triple-A Memphis, but has worked his way up to a respectable .298/.351/.431. Not eye-catching, but certainly not at all shabby for someone who was swinging a metal bat in the Pac-10 just a little over a year ago.

Wallace is not projected to be a big-time power threat, but rather a 15-20 homer guy who hits for a high average and takes his fair share of walks; somewhat of a Kevin Youkilis before he found his power stroke. The biggest knock on Wallace his “fall down range”. He’s defensively challenged at third base to put it mildly, and there is this guy named Pujols in St. Louis who isn’t moving from first base.

Baseball America recently came out with their mid-season top 25, and Wallace ranked 21st. According to Victor Wang — who has published some tremendous research on the hidden value of prospects and the draft — top 11-25 ranked hitters have a trade value of $25 million. Suffice to say, Wallace is a valuable commodity.

Matt Holliday is projected to hit for a .370 wOBA the rest of the season. He’s a good fielder and base-runner, so we can safely figure he will add to the Cardinals a couple of wins, worth $9 million. He’s also a Type-A free agent at the end of the season, meaning an added bonus of some extra draft picks. Once again referring to Victor’s research, that compensation is worth $5 million to a club, not even close to equal value of a top 100 prospect. (Sky also has more light on the subject at BtB. Bookmark it, folks.) Holliday is also due about $6M in salary for the rest of the season.

So two wins plus draft pick compensation minus salary equals about $8 million in value for Holliday. Simple math, folks — $25M > $8M. The trade is actually pretty lopsided when you look at from that perspective. Mozeliak is also faced with the fact that after Brett Wallace, his farm system will be a lot thinner, no pun intended.

Flags fly forever, and Wallace may never quite pan out and is probably not the greatest fit for his parent club.The Cardinals should be buyers at this point, but I wonder if they can’t get a better return than a rental for their top prospect.

Matt Holliday and Nick Swisher had very different 2008 campaigns, with the former producing his third consecutive season with a wOBA north of .400 and the latter suffering from the BABIP flu, hitting just .219/.332/.410. With only a year remaining on his contract and slim chances that he would resign, the Rockies sent Holliday to the Athletics. Swisher joined the Yankees roster in exchange for Wilson Betemit and two prospects following several verbal bouts with White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. Entering this season, both players had something to prove: that Swisher’s .251 BABIP leading to a .325 wOBA was a fluke and that Holliday could post solid offensive numbers without the assistance of Coors Field.

Through their first ten games, Swisher became a Yankees legend and confirmation biases reigned supreme with regards to Holliday’s “inability” to hit on the road:

Games 1-10
Swisher: .406/.486/1.000
Holliday: .278/.333/ .444

Then Swisher cooled substantially, bringing his numbers a bit closer to Earth. Meanwhile, Holliday got on base less often and exhibited diminished power:

Games 11-20
Swisher: .211/.362/.368
Holliday: .262/.311/.405

Over their next ten games, Holliday’s batting average and slugging percentage resembled Swisher’s in the above span, but he did not get on base nearly as often. Swisher took some walks and, despite not recording an abundance of hits, those that did add to his seasonal total were generally of the extra base variety:

Games 21-30
Swisher: .200/.359/.533
Holliday: .211/.318/.368

As you can imagine, after thirty games, many were convinced that Swisher had found his stroke and that Holliday would prove to be a bust as an Athletic.

Game 31-Present
Swisher: .119/.269/.190
Holliday: .342/.468/.526

In their most recent stretches, Holliday has closely resembled the MVP candidate witnessed in Colorado while Swisher put up Nick Punto-esque numbers (.181/.290/198 in 2009). When all of these stretches are combined, Swisher is hitting .225/.360/.493 while Holliday sits at .264/.350/.421. Ignoring batting average, Swisher is still in the midst of a bounce back season with a .369 wOBA matching his output from 2006, when he launched 35 home runs. Unfortunately, Swisher’s BABIP has not regressed, resting at .256. It will be incredibly difficult to sustain this type of performance with a BABIP so low, but his BA does not paint an accurate performance portrait at all.

Holliday has improved over his last ten or so games, but that seasonal line is still lacking. To date, his closest slash line comp is Skip Schumaker of the Cardinals, certainly not company Holliday is accustomed to keeping. The season still has legs, but even with ZiPS projecting better performance out of the former Rockies star, his poor performance so far has definitely affected his true talent level. Should the ZiPS projections come to fruition, Holliday would finish the season hitting .279/.359/.458, numbers that have consistently garnered employment for Raul Ibanez but not what we have come to expect from Holliday. Then again, Matt could pick up steam, continue this torrid stretch, and make people forget he ever struggled. The change of scenery may have helped Swisher enjoy himself more and potentially start anew, but it has worked in the opposite way for Holliday.

There has been speculation recently that, should the Rockies continue to struggle, they may be looking to part ways with offensive juggernaut Matt Holliday. Holliday, a Scott Boras client, will be a free agent following the 2009 season and will likely enter the market looking for a long-term, big-money contract that either a)the Rockies cannot give or b)the Rockies won’t want to give. Instead of focusing on the fiscal aspects of this situation, though, I wanted to take a look at his home and road splits; last year it became somewhat common knowledge on the East Coast, when discussing Holliday vs. Jimmy Rollins, that much of Matt’s stats came from his home park.

Here are Holliday’s yearly splits, from 2004 until now:

2004 H: .338/.406/.603, 10 HR, 29 K, 229 PA
2004 R: .240/.287/.367, 4 HR, 57 K, 210 PA

2005 H: .357/.409/.593, 12 HR, 45 K, 264 PA
2005 R: .256/.313/.416, 7 HR, 34 K, 262 PA

2006 H: .373/.440/.692, 22 HR, 44 K, 334 PA
2006 R: .280/.333/.485, 12 HR, 66 K, 353 PA

2007 H: .376/.435/.722, 25 HR, 58 K, 363 PA
2007 R: .301/.374/.485, 11 HR, 68 K, 350 PA

2008 H: .356/.440/.671, 4 HR, 13 K, 84 PA
2008 R: .283/.371/.402, 2 HR, 13 K, 105 PA

In case you hadn’t noticed, he has done leagues better at home than on the road. Put together, here are his career splits:

Home: .363/.426/.662, 73 HR, 189 K, 1274 PA
Road: .274/.336/.444, 36 HR, 238 K, 1260 PA

Finding comparisons generally helps to further a message so I probed the BR Play Index for players with career numbers similar to those in each of his splits. I found just one person from 2004-now with overall numbers anywhere near his home production: Albert Pujols.

In looking at his road numbers a plethora of names appeared but the closest match was the .275/.339/.456 line in this 4+ year span of Aubrey Huff.

While there is little doubt Holliday could have won the MVP award last season and little doubt about his talent, prospective teams looking to acquire his services and ink him to a mega-bucks deal might want to take into consideration he has been Albert Pujols at Coors Field and Aubrey Huff everywhere else. Not to say Huff is a bad player, which is the common misconception when looking at drastic statistical differences such as this, but he is not on the same level as Pujols.

Perhaps Holliday likes being at home, in general, regardless of whether said home field is Coors Field, but I would tend to think he is someone that truly benefits from that park.