Archive for Mets

The Mets’ farm system rates in the top third of baseball due to a plethora of pitching prospects. In addition to Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero and Cory Mazzoni in the upper minors, the organization’s Florida State League affiliate has the minor leagues’ best rotation. It features Noah Syndergaard, Domingo Tapia, Luis Mateo (who is on the disabled list with an elbow injury), Michael Fulmer (DL – Meniscus) and Hansel Robles. The Savannah Sand Gnats are stocked with intriguing arms as well. Mike Newman recently discussed Gabriel Ynoa and Rainy Lara with his audience, and I mentioned the resurgence of Steven Matz several weeks ago. Read the rest of this entry »

By December it became clear Sandy Alderson would trade R.A. Dickey before his Cy Young Award could collect a spec of dust. The only questions remaining were where the knuckleballer would land and who the Mets would receive in return.

It came as little surprise that Alex Anthopoulos was lurking — fresh off acquiring much Miami’s talent less than a month earlier. It was certain the Mets would require Travis d’Arnaud to make a deal, but would they demand another player, too? Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez vaulted up prospect lists this season as pitchers in the Lansing Lugnuts’ rotation, and their success created a divide among analysts. Syndergaard or Sanchez? Sanchez or Syndergaard? Who was atop Alderson’s list? Was Anthopoulous correct when he deemed Sanchez “untouchable?” Read the rest of this entry »

News broke late last week that Johan Santana was experiencing fatigue in his surgically repaired left shoulder. Though there isn’t any new damage to the area, the news was unsettling, especially since he had just began throwing rehab assignments in the minor leagues. On July 28, his first taste of live action since September 2 of last season, Santana pitched three scoreless innings for St. Lucie, allowing two hits while striking out three. Nothing could be gleaned from the outing other than the fact that he had progressed in his rehab enough to actually pitch in a game.

Not much is known about what will happen to him from here on out. Few athletes have ever had the same surgery — Mark Prior, Chien-Ming Wang and NFL quarterback Chad Pennington round out the list of those with surgeries to fix torn anterior capsules — and the fatigue may or may not lead to further treatment. Right now, Santana will rest for a week before being reevaluated. If the fatigue subsides, he will probably continue his rehab, unless the team decides to shut him down. That decision would only hold water if the Mets felt the risk of further aggravation was high.

Though the Mets aren’t going to make the playoffs this season, meaning the return of Santana isn’t the difference between winning or losing the division or wild card, getting him back on a major league mound would have been a big boon for the organization. As the highest-paid player and best pitcher on the team, even making two or three starts in September would have re-acclimated him to higher leverage situations, when the arm tends to undertake more stress. In addition to getting him back on the mound for their own evaluations, Santana’s performance this season may have had trade ramifications.

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Small sample sizes kill — player development, that is.

Brad Emaus was supposed to be the man at second base for the New York Mets this year. At least that’s what any reasonable person could have anticipated after a Spring Training in which the team cut ties with Luis Castillo, sent Justin Turner to the minor leagues, and slapped the utility tag on Daniel Murphy. Emaus profiled well, as Joe Pawlikowski noted, comparing nicely to fellow former Rule 5 pick Dan Uggla. For every reason imaginable, it was easy to see why Emaus was the popular in-house candidate: a 25-year-old, cost-controlled player with potential seemed exactly what the Mets needed to get back on track.

But Emaus was removed as the everyday starter after only six games. And he’s started half of the last eight. It’s pretty easy to see why — he’s posted an anemic 162/.262/.162 in 42 PA — but is it the right decision, based on such a limited number of plate appearances?

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Since 2006, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have held fort atop the NL East. The Mets ended the Braves streak of 138 consecutive division titles three seasons ago, coming within one game of reaching the World Series. The following season, both the Mets and Phillies battled down to the wire, with the Phils winning the division on the final day of the season. Last season, both teams again battled into September, with the Phillies clinching the division right before the season ended. This time, they went on and actually won the World Series.

The offseason has proved to be very active for both Omar Minaya and Ruben Amaro, Jr, even though Minaya’s transactions have meant more to his team.

With the vast majority of last season’s squad returning, Amaro’s moves have primarily come in the form of little pieces here and there. He brought in Ronnie Paulino from the Pirates to challenge Chris Coste for the backup catcher spot. Scott Eyre and Jamie Moyer both re-signed. Chan Ho Park joined the team to either take on a similar role to that of Chad Durbin last season and/or battle for the fifth rotation spot. And Raul Ibanez, in a much-maligned deal by many, replaced Pat Burrell in left-field.

Minaya acquired Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, and Sean Green to sure up a bullpen that ultimately cost the Mets the division last season. The lineup will return, in tact, and Derek Lowe may even be added to the rotation. Minaya has made a 3-yr/$36 mil offer to Lowe, though I would bet my bottom dollar that Lowe eventually signs for closer to 3-yr/$45 mil.

How do these teams stack up in 2009? Even though the Marlins are young and offensively talented, and the Braves acquired a solid pitcher in Javier Vazquez, the Phillies and Mets are still the top two teams in the division. Does one have a projected advantage over the other? Let’s break the analysis down into different facets of each team. And, for the record, the projections I arrived at were derived from the results of several different systems, weighted and merged, not just one system.

LINEUP
Both the Phillies and Mets have very potent offensive lineups. Both are also quite solid defensively. Chase Utley, the best player on the Phillies, had surgery following the World Series and may or may not be available for opening day. In calculating these projections, I placed Utley at around 130 games and 520 PA. His offensive and defensive contributions are also lessened due to the likelihood that he will miss some time.

The Phillies starting lineup, not in Charlie Manuel’s exact order, will feature the following players: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz, Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Carlos Ruiz. As poor as Howard looks with the glove sometimes, he has actually been eerily close to average over the last few seasons, and projects to just barely below average next season. If he is considered to be a league average first baseman with the glove, then only Raul Ibanez projects negatively on defense for the defending champions.

Likewise, the Mets only project to feature one negative defender: Carlos Delgado. Luis Castillo could prove to be a poor defender with his injury history, but I currently have both he and Daniel Murphy as league average defenders. The remaining starters—Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Church, and Brian Schneider—all project positively on the defensive front.

All told, the Phillies project to +80 runs offensively in their lineup and +40 runs defensively. After adjustments to value production above replacement level as well as for their positions, the lineup comes out at +26.0 WAR. The Mets offense projects to +93 runs while their defense clocks in at +19 runs. After the same adjustments are taken into account, their lineup proves to be worth +26.1 WAR. Eerily similar.

STARTING ROTATIONS
Yesterday we examined the Mets rotation under a few different scenarios regarding whether or not they sign Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, or Tim Redding. With an actual contract being presented to Lowe, and the likelihood that he will eventually sign, the Mets rotation should feature Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Derek Lowe, and Jonathan Niese. Assuming roughly 150 innings from Niese at a 4.45 FIP, this rotation projects to +14.3 WAR.

The Phillies will bring back Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton. The fifth spot is going to be up for grabs between J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, Chan Ho Park, and (gasp) Adam Eaton. As I mentioned yesterday, Happ is my pick to win the spot, which would place the Phillies rotation at +11.8 WAR. The teams may be virtually even in the starting lineup department, but the Mets have a +2.5 win advantage in the rotation.

BULLPEN
The Phillies re-signed Scott Eyre and brought in Chan Ho Park, leaving the rest of the relief corps in tact. Players like Gary Majewski and Dave Borkowski were invited to Spring Training, but would only take the spot of Clay Condrey if either were to make the team. Brad Lidge returns as the closer, with Ryan Madson setting him up. After these two, the Phillies will rely on J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, Eyre, Park, and Condrey. This bullpen projects to be worth +3.4 wins next season.

The Mets replaced Billy Wagner with Francisco Rodriguez; Aaron Heilman with J.J. Putz; and added a solid piece in Sean Green. These three will join the likes of Pedro Feliciano, Duaner Sanchez, Brian Stokes, and Bob Parnell to form a much more formidable bullpen. This relief corps looks like it could be worth +3.6 wins next season. Though this advantage over the Phillies is slight, the ‘pen was a major achilles heel for the Mets last season.

BENCH
Benches are tough to project, again given the small samples of playing time as well as the uncertainty surrounding who will fill certain spots. Assuming Paulino beats out Coste for the backup job, the Phillies will feature some combination of: Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins, Eric Bruntlett, Ronnie Paulino, and Jason Donald. Donald may be the odd one out of this group. Dobbs is the best pinch-hitter in baseball but is still likely worth under one win next season. Without Donald, these five project to +1.5 WAR.

The Mets will have Fernando Tatis and Jeremy Reed on their bench, as well as Ramon Castro. After that, it does not seem that any backup infielders are on the roster, and the only other bench players that seem like viable candidates to make the team are Angel Pagan and Nicholas Evans. Their bench could range anywhere from +0.6 to +1.2 wins. We can call it +0.9 for now, though this will need to be updated before the season starts. The Phillies have over a half-win advantage here, but this is the only area where they come out on top.

TOTALS
For the Phillies, we are looking at +26 wins from the lineup, +11.8 from the rotation, +3.4 from the bullpen, and +1.5 from the bench. This adds up to +42.7 wins. Given that a team chock-full of replacement players would win 47-48 games, the Phillies are projected to win 89-90 games in 2009.

The Mets will get +26.1 wins from the lineup, +14.3 from the rotation featuring Lowe and the aforementioned Niese projection, +3.6 out of the ‘pen, and +0.9 from the bench. This adds up to +44.9 wins, which we will round up to +45 wins. Added to the replacement wins total, the Mets are projected to win 91-92 games next season.

Once again, the teams are extremely close, and 2009 should treat fans to another stellar battle between the Mets and Phillies.

In 2004, Carlos Beltran had a coming out party, of sorts, on the grandest of stages with the Houston Astros. He joined the Drayton Gang earlier in the season as part of a three-team trade, and while he was always highly valued, mashing eight post-season home runs and setting the record for most consecutive playoff games with a home run cemented his superstardom. Following the season, agent Scott Boras and he signed a 7-yr/119 mil deal with the New York Mets, an average annual value of 17 million dollars.

In 2,609 PAs with the Mets from 2005-08, Beltran is hitting .275/.362/.505 with an average of 36 doubles, 29 home runs, and 21 stolen bases. He also plays fantastic defense and is a menace on the basepaths. Bill James and Marcel disagree on his 2009 projection, with James being more optimistic in the form of more plate appearances and a higher wOBA. The godfather of sabermetrics sees Beltran posting a .383 wOBA in 680 PAs, while Marcel is calling for a .368 wOBA in 617 PAs. Weighting the two projections, Beltran’s true talent level is around a .376 wOBA in 649 PAs.

Over the last three seasons, Beltran has posted + – defensive marks of +11, +24, and +24. Weighted, with another year of aging taken into account, we can be comfortable calling him a +20 fielder for 2009, which amounts to +16 runs, and +2.5 more need to be added as a positional adjustment since he is a centerfielder. Before his offense even comes into play, Beltran is worth +18.5 runs compared to an average player.

To determine his offensive contribution, subtract the league average wOBA from his projected mark, divide by 1.15, and multiply that quotient by the number of plate appearances. ((.376-.332)/1.15)*649= 24.8. Therefore, Beltran is worth +24.8, or +25, runs compared to an average player, or about two and a half wins. Add this to the +18.5 from other facets of his play and Beltran, for 2009, is a +43.5 runs above average player. Converted to wins, he is worth 4.35 wins above what an average player would contribute. Then we must add another two wins to establish his mark above replacement level, making him +6.35 wins.

Next, we want to see if he is worth the AAV of 17 mil, so multiply the 6.35 wins by the 5 mil rate of dollars per win. The product is 31 million dollars, meaning that if Carlos were a free agent right now, and signed a 1-yr deal, a fee of 31 mil would be appropriate. Factor in a 10% discount rate for security with a team, and that he has three years remaining on his deal with the Mets, a 3-yr deal at this juncture would be worth 84 mil, an AAV of 28 mil.

A 17-mil/season deal would pay Beltran to be worth 3.4 wins. As we have just seen, right now, he is worth about three full wins more. The Mets are paying him handsomely, but his market value at this moment much greater in terms of salary. Now, Rob Neyer linked here this morning discussing the idea that certain teams can afford to, or should pay more for certain players, based on the payroll and potential success of the team. As in, the Mets increasing their wins total from 92-95 should be worth more money than Meche increasing the Royals from 70-73 wins.

This makes Beltran’s case even more interesting, because the Mets are currently paying him for much less than he is worth on the market today, and the Mets are a team with a payroll, fanbase, and potential success large enough to pay, with merit, more than the 5 mil/win rate. Essentially, they are paying a 6.5 win player money for a 3.5 win player in the context of their team, which could/should pay closer to 6.5-7 mil per win. His offensive numbers may not be as impressive as a few years ago, but he is a dynamite baserunner and arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the game, which adds immense value normally not taken into account.

Three games remain for both the Phillies and Mets. The Phillies currently hold a one game lead in the NL East, and the Mets are deadlocked with the Brewers atop the Wild Card standings. The Mets have not blown a 7.5 game lead like last year, but the similarities to last year at this same time are pretty striking. Entering the final series in 2007, the Phillies and Mets were tied, and were set to host the Nationals and Marlins at home, respectively. In the first game, Cole Hamels looked dominant, striking out thirteen Nationals en route to a 6-0 win. Up north, Oliver Perez fell to Byung-Hyun Kim, 7-4, giving the Phillies a one game lead.

The next day, John Maine had a Hamels-like performance as the Mets beat up on the Marlins, 13-0. The Phillies were not as lucky, and why should they have been, with Adam Eaton on the mound? Why Eaton was pitching on such an important day will forever escape me and the multitude of Phillies fans. Anyways, they lost 4-2, once again bringing the division to a tie. On the final Sunday, I will never forget watching in shock (and glee) as Tom Glavine imploded and the Marlins erupted for seven runs in the first inning. Ramon Castro came a few inches short of a grand slam to make the score 7-5, and the Mets were down and out. Jamie Moyer, meanwhile, looked brilliant for the Phillies, as they clinched the division with a 6-1 victory.

Weather permitting, the Phillies will host the Nationals for three this weekend, while the Marlins visit Shea Stadium. Below are the tentative matchups:

Phillies vs. Nationals
Friday: Joe Blanton vs. Collin Balester
Saturday: Jamie Moyer vs. John Lannan
Sunday: Cole Hamels vs. Odalis Perez

Mets vs. Marlins
Friday: Mike Pelfrey vs. Chris Volstad
Saturday: Brandon Knight (?) vs. Ricky Nolasco
Sunday: Johan Santana vs. Scott Olsen

The question mark is not meant to serve as an insult towards Knight but rather it points towards the fact that the Mets seemingly have not decided who will pitch Saturday. The New York announcers speculated Knight would toe the rubber tomorrow and he very well might. Should the Phillies or Mets clinch prior to the final game, Hamels and Santana will likely be given the day off in order to pitch in the first game of a playoff series. With the way the forecast looks this weekend, these final games may be Monday or Tuesday. The circumstances of this season’s division race is different than last year, but just like then, both teams will have to stave off potential spoilers to earn their way into October baseball.

Back towards the beginning of the year, over at Statistically Speaking, I posted twenty questions ranging in difficulty as a fun little break. The third question—Who is the only player to hit two grand slams in the same inning and off whom did he hit them?—can be answered with the names Fernando Tatis and Chan Ho Park. Tatis mashed two grand slams off of Park back in April, 1999. With their careers seemingly over, both players had become answers to that question as opposed to players teams rely on or employ.

After several injury-plagued years with the Cardinals and Expos, Tatis returned home to the Dominican Republic to spend time with his family. He did not play baseball in 2004 or 2005, save for some spring training with the then Devil Rays in 2004. The desire to build a church in his hometown of San Pedro de Macoris prompted his return to baseball. He appeared in 28 games for the Orioles in 2006, producing an .813 OPS in limited action.

Last season, he signed a minor league deal with the Mets and spent the entire year on their AAA squad. One of his teammates was none other than Chan Ho Park, also looking to get his career back in order, albeit under different circumstances. Tatis was out of baseball and Park, well, ought to have been. Park ended up making one mostly terrible start for the Mets while Tatis awaited his chance. Meanwhile, the church he had been saving money to build was built while he played in the minors.

This year, Park returned “home” to Los Angeles, going back to where his career began. Though his controllable skills are nothing to write home about—a 4.56 FIP—his ERA is a mere 3.05 and he has been very effective out of the Dodgers bullpen. Tatis finally got his callup thanks to injuries to both Moises Alou and Ryan Church. He has not disappointed either. In just 83 games, Tatis is hitting .291/.360/.482, with 11 home runs.

His knack for timely hitting has resulted in a 2.34 WPA, which, even in just half of a season, outranks Nick Markakis, Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Giambi. Now, his WPA/LI is 0.57, much lower than the standard win probability metric suggests, which portends much clutch hitting. Park has been the same way, as his 0.75 WPA exceeds his -0.14 WPA/LI. However, as we mentioned yesterday, WPA isn’t a bad stat to use when looking at relievers, since the situations in which they pitch are usually so crucial.

Tatis has spent most of his time in the outfield, where he is a +3 defender in LF and a -2 in RF. Basically, he is an average fielder with an above average hitting line. If this was some youngster called up from AAA, we would likely be praising him, but because of the name recognition and the semblance of shock that Tatis is still playing baseball, that wow factor does not seem to exist as much. Something we can wow at, however, is that Park has somehow increased his fastball velocity from 88.4-88.5 mph in recent years to just about 93 mph this year. It’s normal for players to fluctuate within maybe 0.3-0.5 mph from one year to the next, but 4.5-5 mph?

Tatis and Park might no longer be the versions of themselves from the mid-90’s, but the 2008 editions have been quite productive.

Carlos Beltran has had one extremely interesting career so far. In about nine years he has gone from prospect oozing with potential to productive rookie to possible hall of fame track performer to the most clutch playoff hitter ever to the most sought after free agent to the most overrated and derided player in New York to 40-HR power on a division champ. That has all led up to his current status, which, if you asked most Mets fans, would be slightly overrated.

I’m sure there will be some Mets supporters reading this that find it laughable that their compadres could find Beltran overrated, but I have heard enough fans and read enough blog posts and articles to know that, on some level, this opinion exists. Perhaps the sentiments stem from Beltran’s non-chalance on the field and at the plate. He does everything with such confidence that it looks as if he isn’t trying at all. Couple that with the blank stare often found on his face and you have the perfect makings of a guy who couldn’t possibly succeed as a vocal leader on the field, which seems to bug the Shea faithful.

My question is…. who cares!?!?

Seriously, who cares if he is or isn’t a team leader? For all we know, he just might be very vocal in the locker room. And as long as he gets to the flyball, who cares if he floats to it thanks to his excellent range and speed, or goes into full-fledged Eckstein-gritmaster mode? If he didn’t get to flyballs then maybe there would be a point to this non-chalance, but according to the +- system, there has not been a better centerfielder in the sport since 2006. In that span, 2006 to right now, Beltran is +57 plays better than an average centerfielder.

Yes, he struggled in his inaugural Metropolitans campaign, but that was three years ago and he has more than rebounded. In 2006, he hit 41 home runs and posted a .982 OPS. Last year, he hit 33 home runs and had an .878 OPS. Sure, it was much lower than 2006, but still very good, not just when compared to his 2005, but especially so when coupled with his NL best +24 plays in the outfield.

This year, he only has 19 home runs, so it is not very likely he will match the totals of the previous two seasons, but his win probability metrics are not too far off last year’s course. With a month remaining, he currently has a WPA/LI of 2.05 (17th in the NL) and a WPA of 2.26 (15th in the NL). Last year, he had a WPA/LI of 2.91 and a WPA of 2.03.

Over the last three calendar years, he has 9.23 context-neutral wins, which is good for 8th in the NL, right behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, and has been one of the, if not the, senior circuit’s best centerfielder. Generally speaking, top-ten offense and top-five defense equates to a very good player. Can someone please make the opposing case? I’m not being sarcastic at all, but rather curious to hear from those who do not like him.

In yesterday’s Phillies-Mets game, Damion Easley picked up three hits in his five at-bats, all of which were infield singles. Upon witnessing the third of these singles it hit me somewhat quickly that, wow, Easley has been around for a long, long time. His major league career began in 1992, meaning that this is his seventeenth major league season. In fact, Easley’s career began so long ago that his first employer was actually the California Angels, not the Anaheim Angels, or even the Los Angeles Angels of Californian Los Anaheim like today.

The title is a bit facetious given that I was well aware Easley still belonged to a major league club but is anyone else surprised in the least that he has been able to stick around for seventeen years?

It isn’t as if Easley had the peak years of a star shortstop either. Easley’s peak came between 1997 and 2001, with the Tigers, where an average season looked like this: 147 G, 142 H-544 AB, 32 2B, 19 HR, 53 BB, 101 K, .262/.342/.435, .777 OPS. Say what you will about the OPS metric but, amongst those with 500+ games played in this five-year span, Easley’s ranks 124th, right in the vicinity of Jose Offerman, Michael Tucker, and Troy O’ Leary. Essentially, his peak was not terrible, but I would generally have a hard time believing that a player with a .777 OPS in a five-year peak would be a seventeen year veteran.

His best season came in 1998, when he slugged 27 home runs, good enough to earn quite the curious berth in the Home Run Derby. One of my favorite aspects of baseball is how, on occasion, the smaller details will stick with us. With Easley, I couldn’t quote you his career numbers or peak stats without some research, or even name all of the teams that employed him (Angels, Tigers, Devil Rays, Marlins, DBacks, Mets) without glancing at his player page, but I’ll always remember how odd it looked in the 1998 derby when Easley stood next to all of those proven sluggers… though, to his credit he did out-HR one Chipper Jones on that fateful day in Coors Field.

Since his peak, Easley has largely become a reserve, making spot starts here and there and filling in during extended injuries for starters. This in part explains how he has stuck around so long; it isn’t as if he’s a full-time regular anymore. From 2002 until now he has put together a .242/.317/.399 slash line, right on par with Brandon Inge in that same span. The major difference there is that Inge was a starter for the majority of those numbers. Though that likely explains more about the misuse of Inge than anything about Easley, it’s pretty remarkable that the guy has been able to play major league baseball for at least seventeen years, primarily under the radar, and without a peak that would garner him a big reputation.