Archive for mike montgomery

So far this offseason, the Chicago Cubs have signed seven free-agent pitchers. That’s a lot. (According to ESPN Stats & Information, it’s actually the second-most ever behind the 2001 Rangers.) You may have heard of one of them: Yu Darvish.

Travis Sawchik has already written about who Darvish is as a pitcher, and how he and the Cubs needed each other, and I agree with most of that. I want to write about something else — namely, the signing’s impact on Chicago’s bullpen, and how it’s really rather bad news for one rather excellent pitcher: Michael Paul Montgomery.

The big reason for that, of course, is that Montgomery was, prior to Saturday’s news, projected as Chicago’s fifth starter. Following Sunday’s news, meanwhile, Montgomery is now projected as Guy Who Joe Maddon Uses for More Relief Innings Than You’d Exepect.

This second role was actually the one Montgomery played for much of 2017, throwing out of the bullpen in 30 out of 44 appearances, and averaging a bit over two innings in those games. Seven times, he pitched three or more innings in relief. Once, he threw 4.1 innings. No pitcher in the game who recorded as many relief innings also threw more innings per relief appearance in 2017.

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Each weekday during the minor-league season, FanGraphs is providing a status update on multiple rookie-eligible players. Note that Age denotes the relevant prospect’s baseball age (i.e. as of July 1st of the current year); Top-15, the prospect’s place on Marc Hulet’s preseason organizational list; and Top-100, that same prospect’s rank on Hulet’s overall top-100 list.

Mike Montgomery, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays (Profile)
Level: Triple-A   Age: 24   Top 15: N/A   Top 100: N/A
Line: 0.90 ERA, 10 IP, 10.80 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 1.00 WHIP

Summary
No longer an elite prospect, the left-handed Montgomery appears to have adapted well enough to reduced velocity to provide some future value at the major-league level.

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Not so long ago, Tampa Bay’s Tim Beckham and Mike Montgomery (then with Kansas City) were the talk of the prospect world. Both originally acquired out of high school, Beckham, a shortstop, was the first overall selection in the 2008 amateur draft, while Montgomery, a left-handed starter, was nabbed with the 36th pick. But then a funny thing happened along the way to MLB stardom: The prospects struggled.

The Background

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Marc Krauss, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Current Level: AA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Improving

Krauss spent the first two years of his career destroying pitching in the low minors. Promoted to double-A in 2011, the now-24-year-old outfielder faced the first true, long-term struggles of his pro career which saw him hit .242 with a wRC+ of 109. Returning to the level in 2012, Krauss has shown steady improvements and currently sports a wRC+ of 168, as well as an ISO rate of .234. The left-handed hitter could carve out a solid career as a platoon left-fielder (and/or DH) who beats up on right-handed pitching but runs screaming like a school girl from southpaws.

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General Manager: Dayton Moore
Farm Director: Mike Arbuckle
Scouting Director: J.J. Picollo

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The system certainly has some talent brewing, but most of it lies below the double-A level, so fans are going to have to be patient. A renewed emphasis on the draft should definitely help turn the organization around. For more on the ’09 draft picks, see yesterday’s post.

1. Mike Montgomery, LHP, high-A
DOB: July 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

If the organization can find a way to keep its current ace, then it could have a nasty one-two punch at the MLB level with Zack Greinke and Montgomery. The left-hander has flown through the system and will likely open ’10 in double-A. Montgomery, 20, posted a 2.30 FIP in 52.0 innings in high-A in ’09. He allowed just 38 hits and posted a walk rate of 2.08 BB/9. He also showed that he can miss some bats with a strikeout rate of 7.96 K/9. In his career, Montgomery has allowed just three homers in 152.2 innings of work, thanks in part to his solid ground-ball rates. His rate averaged out at 50% for the ’09 season.

2. Mike Moustakas, 3B, high-A
DOB: September 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Still just 21 years of age, Moustakas has been hurt by some low BABIPs over the past two seasons: .291 in ’08 and .277 in ’09. As a result, this former No. 1 draft pick’s triple-slash numbers have plummeted each of his three pro seasons. Moustakas is going to have to improve his patience at the plate (6.1 BB% in ’09) but he does flash some raw power (.171 ISO in ’09). A .319 wOBA is not going to make him an impact third baseman.

3. Eric Hosmer, 1B, high-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Big things were expected of Hosmer in ’09, but he struggled with his vision and hit just .254/.352/.382 in 280 low-A at-bats. Curiously, the organization chose to promote the first baseman despite the lackluster numbers. He then hit .206/.280/.299 in 97 high-A at-bats. On the plus side, Hosmer posted a walk rate of 13.6% in low-A, which is extra impressive considering he was not seeing the ball very well.

4. Danny Duffy, LHP, high-A
DOB: December 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

He’s certainly not the hardest thrower in the system, but Duffy knows how to pitch, as witnessed by his 2.84 FIP in high-A ball in ’09. Duffy allowed 108 hits in 126.2 innings of work. He gave up just six homers (0.43 HR/9) and showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.91 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped from 11.24 in low-A in ’08 to 8.88 K/9 in ’09, but it’s still an encouraging number. A word of caution: Despite his low homers-allowed totals, Duffy is a fly-ball pitcher. He posted a ground-ball rate of just 42.2% in ’09 and 36.6% in ’08, so that suggests he’s going to have to work down in the zone a little more.

5. Tim Melville, RHP, low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – Missouri HS
MLB ETA: early-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Melville entered the ’08 draft more highly regarded than organization-mate Montgomery, who has now passed him. Melville had a solid debut year (unlike Montgomery, he did not pitch in ’08) and allowed just 89 hits in 97.1 innings. The right-hander pitches up in the zone more than Montgomery, and he was hurt by a 0.92 HR/9 rate. He also showed less control with a walk rate of 3.98 BB/9. Melville did, however, show the ability to strike out batters with a K-rate of 8.88 K/9.

6. Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, triple-A
DOB: March 1984 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2002 15th round – Hawaii HS
MLB ETA: early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1

Ka’aihue was the forgotten man in the organization while Mike Jacobs played everyday and provided below average production (-0.7 WAR). Despite slugging 38 homers in ’08, the 25-year-old spent the entire year in triple-A where he hit .252/.392/.433 with an ISO of .181 in 441 at-bats. Ka’aihue walked 102 times on the year… or six fewer times than Jacobs has in the last three years combined. If Kansas City is not going to take him seriously as a cheap source of power, it should do the slugger a favor by trading him.

7. David Lough, OF, double-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 11th round – Mercyhurst College
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The 23-year-old Lough had a breakout ’09 season and could be the best in-house option to eventually replace David DeJesus or Coco Crisp (when they are deemed too expensive). Lough, though, is probably still a year away from being ready to play everyday at the MLB level. In ’09, he began the year in high-A and hit .320/.370/.473 in 222 at-bats. He then moved up to double-A where he hit .331/.371/.517 with a .186 ISO in 236 at-bats. Lough stole 19 bases but was caught eight times, and he needs to get on base more frequently (4.8 BB% in double-A) to take advantage of his speed.

8. Jeff Bianchi, SS, double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 2nd round – Pennsylvania HS
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Finally healthy, Bianchi showed consistency in ’09 and reached double-A. In high-A ball, the shortstop hit .300/.360/.427 in 220 at-bats. Moved up to double-A, Bianchi responded with a triple-slash line of .315/.356/.441 in 270 at-bats. He also stole 22 bases on the year and was caught just six times. The 23-year-old infielder strikes out too much (21.5 K%) for his modest power.

9. John Lamb, LHP, rookie
DOB: July 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 5th round – California HS
MLB ETA: late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Lamb did not pitch after signing in ’08, so he made his pro debut in ’09 and pitched well at two rookie ball levels. Overall, he allowed 57 hits in 68.2 innings and showed good control with a walk rate around 2.70 BB/9. Despite an average fastball, Lamb used his control and deception to strike out almost one batter per inning. He should jump to low-A in 2010, and he still has a long way to climb before reaching Kansas City.

10. Tyler Sample, RHP, rookie
DOB: June 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Colorado HS
MLB ETA: mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

This ’08 draft pick gets lost in the shuffle behind some of the bigger names, but Sample had an impressive year in ’09. The right-hander allowed 41 hits in 54.2 innings of work while posting a strikeout rate around 8.00 K/9. His control is still a work in progress, but it was right around 3.60 BB/9. Sample posted a modest 43.4% ground-ball rate, but he allowed just two home runs (0.16 HR/9).

Up Next: The St. Louis Cardinals

It’s safe to say that things have not gone quite like the Kansas City Royals management thought it would in 2009. The club started off pretty well but faded quickly in the standings and the Major League club is now in fourth place in the American League Central division, 11.5 games out of first place.

While the big-league club is floundering, there is some good news on the farm – especially down in low-A ball with the Burlington Bees. In recent years, the Royals organization has been stung by its inability to develop its own starting pitchers. Young stud Zack Greinke has begun to shift that trend and more reinforcements are on the way (albeit it slowly).

The Royals organization drafted two 6’5” prep pitchers in the 2008 draft: Michael Montgomery (supplemental first round) and Tim Melville (fourth round). Melville was a first-round talent who fell due to signability concerns, but the Royals did what any good organization (desperately in need of minor league talent/depth) should do: It ponied up the cash for a deserving talent, giving the organization two outstanding pitching talents from the 2008 draft.

Montgomery, a left-hander, made 12 appearances (nine starts) in 2008 at rookie ball. In 42.2 innings, he allowed 31 hits and posted a 1.69 ERA (3.13 FIP). So far this year, he’s also kept his ERA below 2.00 at 1.69 (2.83 FIP). He’s allowed 33 hits in 48 innings of work. The southpaw, who just turned 20 years old, has posted a walk rate of 3.94 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.88 K/9. He has yet to allow a home run this season, after allowing just two in 2008.

Right-hander Melville signed too late to make his 2008 debut, so he’s a little bit behind Montgomery on the development chart. Nonetheless, he joined the left-hander in low-A ball in 2009, where he’s made 11 starts. In 50 innings, Melville has allowed 48 hits while posting rates of 3.96 BB/9 and 7.20 K/9. The 19-year-old hurler has allowed five home runs and he has a 3.78 ERA (4.34 FIP).

Despite their inexperience, both pitchers rank among the organization’s best three pitching prospects – along with high-A left-hander Danny Duffy. Montgomery features a low-90s fastball, as well as two well-developed secondary pitches: a curveball and changeup. Melville’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 95 mph, a good curveball and a developing changeup that needs work.

Fear not, Royals fans. Help is on the way… Unless Dayton Moore trades Montgomery and Melville for Jerry Hairston or Ramon Vazquez.