Archive for Nate McLouth

Moving right along in our look at the top ten offensive swings in win expectancy, we find ourselves at spot number eight, which happens to involve another member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. They might not know how to win, but apparently they know how to win big. The eighth biggest offensive play of the season took place on April 14, when the Pirates visited the Dodgers. Hiroki Kuroda took on Zach Duke, and both delivered somewhat stellar performances. Duke failed to strike out a batter but still recorded a quality start, and Kuroda had finished his first three starts with a 5.0 K/BB and 2.89 ERA. Still, Kuroda’s outing was not enough to end with a victory for the Dodgers. The game graph is below:

The Pirates took an early lead thanks to a two-run home run off the bat of Jose Bautista, but the Dodgers slowly crawled back into the game. Shockingly, their first run came on the heels of an Andruw Jones groundout, meaning that Andruw Jones did, in fact, do something productive. Kuroda then helped his own cause later in the game with an RBI double to knot the game at two.

In the sixth inning, Xavier Nady hit an RBI double of his own to propel the Pirates to a 3-2 lead. In the next half inning, James Loney and Blake DeWitt delivered RBI singles of their own to put the Dodgers in front for the first time at 4-3. When the ninth inning rolled around, the Dodgers led by the same score, and closer Takashi Saito entered the game. At this juncture, the Pirates had a 14.5% probability of winning the game. Doug Mientciewicz flew out to start the frame, reducing their expectancy to 7.8%. Jose Bautista followed with a single, before Saito struck out Luis Rivas. With two outs, and a runner on first base, the Pirates’ win expectancy was just 7.1%.

Adam LaRoche singled to centerfield, moving pinch-runner Brian Bixler up to second base. With two outs and runners on first and second, their win expectancy rose to just 13.2%. Nate McLouth then stepped up to the plate. He took ball one, but on the second pitch, launched a three-run dinger into orbit. The Pirates took the 6-4 lead, but unlike the previous two plays documented, his was not a walkoff hit. Their win expectancy rose by 79.6%, from 13.2% to 92.8%. In the bottom of the ninth, Matt Capps recorded a 1-2-3 save, capping (pun totally intended) quite the unexpected result in this ballgame.

Back on April 22, I wrote a post titled “Nasty Nate McLouth“, dissecting the hot start of the Pirates outfielder. He had a ridiculously high BABIP at the time which led to quite the inflated slash line. Additionally, while sustaining a very similar walk rate he had drastically reduced his strikeout percentage. Here are some of his numbers at the time of the first post and his overall numbers as we speak:

Apr 22: .403 BABIP, .375/.444/.639, 1.082 OPS, 12.5 K%
Today: .288 BABIP, .281/.361/.523, .885 OPS, 13.8 K%

As expected, his BABIP dropped significantly, and his slash line fell as a result. His strikeout rate has increased a bit but the 13.8% is still much lower than the 23.4% of last year. Speaking of the 2007 season, McLouth now has virtually the same amount of at-bats this year as last. Here are his numbers from the last two years:

2007: 85-329, 48 1B, 21 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 39 BB, 77 K, .258/.351/.489
2008: 92-327, 46 1B, 28 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 34 BB, 45 K, .281/.362/.523

Things appear very similar with the exception of the strikeouts and added power; McLouth’s increase in doubles and home runs has led to not only the higher batting average but the higher slugging percentage as well. His ISO in 2007 was .201 compared to the .242 so far this year. Unfortunately, or fortunately if you are a Pirates fan, he actually gets lost in the shuffle a bit because the entire Bucs outfield is producing at a high level.

Amongst NL outfielders, McLouth ranks 8th in WPA (1.54) and 7th in WPA/LI (1.56). Jason Bay and Xavier Nady rank ahead of him in both areas. McLouth’s 22.58 BRAA and 2.24 REW rank third amongst NL outfielders, though, higher than both of his teammates. He has cooled off quite a bit since riding the coattails of a 19-game hitting streak early in the season but he is still producing at a high level; or at least much higher than we might have expected entering the season. I also would not be surprised if he has earned his first All-Star berth given his solid numbers and the fact that surprising players make good stories.

While surfing through my MLB Extra Innings package the other night I came across a bottom line statistic that piqued my interest: Pirates outfielders had (at the time) a .904 OPS, which led all of baseball. I knew Nate McLouth had gotten off to a scorching start; that Jason Bay had seemingly begun to bounce back from a disappointing 2007; and that Xavier Nady had been producing better than many gave him credit for. What I did not know, however, was that these three have arguably been the most productive outfield in the entire sport.

Looking first at their OPS, the Pirates trio all ranks in the top fifteen amongst major league outfielders. McLouth comes in 5th at .940; Bay in 7th at .932; and Nady in 14th at .886. There are no other threesomes in the top fifteen and, in fact, the only other outfields in the top thirty-five belong to the Cubs and Giants; however, Alfonso Soriano, Mark DeRosa, Kosuke Fukudome, Aaron Rowand, Fred Lewis, and Randy Winn all have a lower OPS than Nady’s .886.

When combined, the Pirates outfield is currently 229-768, in 892 PAs, complete with 55 doubles, 3 triples, 39 home runs, and 114 walks or hit by pitches. Ultimately, they are hitting .298/.385/.535, good for a .920 OPS.

Reverting to WPA furthers their case: all three are in the top twelve amongst major league outfielders. Bay ranks 3rd with a 2.81 WPA; McLouth is 9th at 1.76; and Nady comes in at 12th with a 1.56. Added together, these three have contributed 6.13 wins.

Pat Burrell is far and away the outfield leader, at 4.40, but the next closest Phillies OF Shane Victorino has a -0.96 WPA. Additionally, both Manny Ramirez and J.D. Drew rank in the top ten with a combined 4.64; however, even with Jacoby Ellsbury added in they increase only to 5.26, still almost a full win lower than the Bucs.

If I had to put money on it I would say the Red Sox will surpass the Pirates by the end of the season but, almost halfway through 2008, the 34-37 Pittsburgh Pirates have the most productive outfield in the game.

In a mock fantasy draft a few weeks prior to the season I drafted Nate McLouth of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 23rd round. Numerous competitors laughed at the selection and, honestly, it was made with little conviction from my end. I needed to fill my outfielder quota and his numbers from a year ago made him look better than, say, Dave Roberts. Judging by the reactions upon making my selection it is safe to say that next to nobody thought McLouth would be the answer to the question: Who is the only player in the major leagues to have a hit in all of his team’s games?

Some might answer Hanley Ramirez, a statistical wunderkind quickly developing into a super-duper-star. Or, perhaps, Chipper Jones, who currently boasts a .453 batting average. Maybe even Chase Utley, who has an impressive home run streak, let alone a hitting streak. But Nate McLouth? Really? A guy who admitted in an FSN interview prior to the season opener that he was told he had very little job security coming into spring training?

Coming into tonight’s game against the Marlins, McLouth is riding the waves of a 19-game hitting streak. His slash line currently rests at .375/.444/.639, resulting in an OPS of 1.082 and an OPS+ of 184. After creating 91 runs in 243 games (0.37/gm), over the last two seasons, he has already created 23 (1.21/gm). His streak is the longest to open a season since 2006, when Edgar Renteria opened with a 23-gamer. Renteria’s streak came to an end against a Marlins combination of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, and Randy Messenger.

As chance would have it, not only does McLouth face the pesky fish tonight, but he faces Ricky Nolasco! Ah, baseball.

How has McLouth, a guy with a pre-2008 slash line of .249/.319/.429, been so stellar? A quick look at a few graphs will help illustrate this answer:

McLouth has drastically cut down on his strikeouts, from 23.4% in 2007 to just 12.5% this year. His BABIP has gone from .274, .275, and .301 in prior seasons all the way up to .403 at this juncture. The final graph, detailing his groundball, flyball, and line drive rates, shows that McLouth has increased his frequency of putting the ball on the ground while decreasing his percentage of balls in the air.

It is not very likely that he, even with his speed, will maintain anything in the vicinity of a .403 BABIP all season but his performance thus far has been nothing short of remarkable.