Archive for Nationals

If you had to guess which teams would be doling out eight-year deals this winter, the Nationals probably wouldn’t have made the top of your list. Yet on Friday evening, they came to terms on just that: an eight-year extension. The recipient, equally surprising: Keibert Ruiz. The pact is worth $50 million and comes with two club options that could keep the young catcher in Washington through 2032. Full financial terms of the contract have yet to be revealed, but it comes with a signing bonus and is reportedly front-loaded, giving Ruiz a substantial raise for the upcoming season.

In both length and value, this is one of the largest extensions ever given to a player with fewer than two years of service time. Other players to sign similarly large deals with such little MLB experience include Michael Harris II (this past August), Ke’Bryan Hayes (this past April), and Corbin Carroll (this past weekend). Harris and Hayes, though, had longer and/or better track records, and Carroll is an uber-prospect with superstar potential. Ruiz had a fine season in 2022, but he’s yet to demonstrate he can be more than an average player at the big league level. Read the rest of this entry »

The Washington Nationals entered the 2012 season with a plan to limit Stephen Strasburg’s activity. Since the flamethrowing ace recently underwent Tommy John Surgery, this was a medical decision designed to work him back into shape without overexertion. The team never announced a specific activity threshold, but it was generally believed to be around 160 innings, or the normal equivalency in total pitches thrown.

The Nationals followed a similar plan with Jordan Zimmermann last year, shutting him down after 161.1 innings. The obvious difference between this year and last year is that the Nationals are now legitimate playoff contenders.

Last season, the Nationals were fighting to reach .500, so losing Zimmermann after an August 28 start wasn’t as huge of a deal. This year, the Nationals have a great chance to make the playoffs, but their odds of succeeding in the postseason are clearly reduced if the starting rotation lacks its best pitcher.

Seeing as Strasburg has already thrown 100 innings this season — 99 in the regular season and his one inning all-star game appearance — it’s making for quite the interesting dilemma. General Manager Mike Rizzo was adamant that the team would stick to the plan no matter how well it was playing. Given Rizzo’s word, what’s important for the Nationals now isn’t figuring out how to manipulate Strasburg’s starts to keep him pitching into September and October. Instead, with the trade deadline fast approaching, they need to figure out who is going to replace him to increase their odds of making, and succeeding in, the playoffs.

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Zack Greinke has been the most valuable National League pitcher this season, tallying 3 WAR over 13 starts. Not too far behind him is a pair of Washington Nationals starters who have each made one fewer start: Gio Gonzalez ranks second with 2.7 WAR and Stephen Strasburg comes in third with 2.6 WAR. At this point in the season the 0.3 wins separating Greinke and Gonzalez isn’t significant, nor is the more minute differential between Strasburg and his southpaw teammate.

But the fact that Gonzalez is even in the same discussion as a former Cy Young Award winner and a phenom living up to the hype bears notice. Entering the season, the 26-year old Gonzalez was considered a good pitcher, one who could easily miss bats but who struggled with control and was prone to racking up walks. He wasn’t projected to pitch at an all-star or award-worthy level, but the Nationals saw something they loved and offered, at signing, the largest-ever contract for a first-time arbitration-eligible pitcher.

His five-year, $42 million deal, which includes a $12 million club option in 2017 and a $12 million player option in 2018, stood to buy out the most effective years of what we typically consider a #2 or #3 starter. The deal offered some savings at the end if Gonzalez turned into an ace, but would still prove worthwhile if he sustained the 3-3.5 WAR performance he established over 2010-11.

If Gonzalez can sustain his current level of performance, or some semblance of it, the Nationals are going to have a legitimate second ace in the rotation and a potential #1 starter signed to a fairly modest deal throughout his prime.

Can Gonzalez keep rolling through the National League at this pace? While there are a couple of reasons to think some of his numbers will regress to the mean, there is also ample evidence to suggest he has made long-lasting improvements and isn’t simply a posterchild for switching to the easier league.

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Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are set to become the marquee free agent first basemen this offseason, but they may have some company. Dmitri Young has reportedly expressed interest in returning to the major leagues. Suddenly, teams missing out on Albert and the Prince have a viable Option C when the signing period rolls around.

/sarcasm

Clearly Young’s desire to return has no bearing on any market whatsoever, but the story remains interesting. Young told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that he plans on participating in the Venezuelan Winter League, beginning in October. From there, the realistic goal is to receive a spring training invitation on a non-guaranteed, minor league deal. After all, he hasn’t played in the major leagues since 2008, and appeared in just 14 games for the Nationals’ minor-league affiliates the very next season. He also officially retired in March 2010, presumably due to his struggles with diabetes.

He wants to come back, but will anyone give him a chance?

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With Spring Training set to kick off in about a week, the storylines involving several high-profile free agents will only grow increasingly more dramatic. Based on the headlines, the market for pitchers seemingly dwindled down to the extremely risky right arm of Ben Sheets and the questionable skillset of lefty Randy Wolf. I have already covered how Braden Looper is realistically just as talented at Wolf while simultaneously costing a fraction of the money, but another pitcher has flown under the radar: Odalis Perez.

Perez’s name was recently withdrawn from the list of available hurlers, though, as he inked a minor league deal with the Washington Nationals. The deal is interesting given that it comes in the non-guaranteed form with a maximum potential salary well under the eventual deals that will be signed by Wolf and Looper. If Odalis makes the team, he can earn $850,000, which seems a bit off. Granted he played for the Washington Nationals last season, but he still produced to the tune of +1.5 wins.

He also does not carry the inconsistencies of the other pitchers. His win values over the last four years: +1.6, +1.4, +1.5, +1.5. Last season, he produced a 4.62 FIP in 159 IP. Marcel has his 2009 pegged at a very similar 4.59 FIP in 151 IP. There really is no reason to think Perez could not be equally as valuable as last season. Perez has somehow managed to garner a reputation for being old despite the fact that he won’t turn 32 until June.

Tim Redding is one year younger than Perez, and over the last four seasons has an aggregate win value of 1.0. Despite a minimal age discrepancy and the performance differences pointing very favorably in Perez’s direction, Redding signed a guaranteed $2.25 mil contract while Odalis will have to settle for one third of that salary once he makes the actual major league roster.

Why the Mets didn’t spring for Perez is beyond me, especially given that they apparently valued a consistent 5th-starter type quite highly. And, on that note, why did Perez have to settle for the Nationals anyways? He isn’t as attractive as the top-tier free agent pitchers but teams could do much worse than he as a back of the rotation starter, especially on a low risk, high reward contract. Perez should easily make the big league team and the current contract values him at +0.2 wins, under one seventh of the win values he has produced in each of the last four seasons. A good deal for the Nationals even if it won’t make any difference whatsoever.

Ronnie Belliard is not an all-star, a future MVP, or someone that will find himself enshrined in Cooperstown someday. He is not even that good of a player to begin with, coupling about average offense with below average defense. For his 11-year career, Ronnie has a WPA/LI of -1.23, making him a little over one win worse than an average player, offensively. He has always shown himself capable of some power, however, and this season, despite playing in just 96 games, he produced the best numbers of his career.

Overall, in those 96 games and 337 plate appearances, Belliard hit .284/.372/.473, an .845 OPS, and a 1.40 WPA/LI, the latter two of which are career bests. He also hit 22 doubles and managed to match last year’s home run total of 11 in a little more than half of the at-bats. One of those home runs came on June 29, in a game where Orioles visited the Nationals. This home run just so happens to be the runner-up to the biggest offensive play of the 2008 season.

While our third biggest play involved a pitching matchup of two hurlers who will be lucky to even have a job in 2009 (Kyle Kendrick and Patrick Misch), this game saw a beautiful pitching duel between Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Bergmann, both of which can be slotted in for 30+ starts next season. After Bergmann stranded a runner in the top of the first, Aaron Boone knocked in a run off of Guthrie on a fielder’s choice in the bottom half of the frame. The Nationals led 1-0 and literally nothing would happen until the top of the seventh inning.

With Bergmann absolutely cruising along, Luke Scott knotted the game up with a solo home run. He would get out of the inning without further damage. Guthrie pitched a scoreless bottom half of the seventh, before both starters departed. They had each pitched extremely well, and left with idential WPAs of .266. The bullpens were equally effective, however, as the eighth, ninth, tenth, and eleventh innings came and went with nary a run crossing the plate.

Luis Ayala began the top of the twelfth by surrendering back to back singles to Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff. With runners on first and second, he retired Kevin Millar. Charlie Manning then entered the game and struck out Luke Scott, before himself being lifted in favor of Joel Hanrahan. In quite the crucial plate appearance—a leverage index of 4.47—Jones singled to rightfield, scoring Markakis and giving the Orioles a 2-1 lead.

George Sherrill came in, hoping to close the door, which, by my tone and the earlier text quite apparently did not happen. At the beginning of the frame, though, the Nationals had a 20.3% probability of winning. Pete Orr struck out to kick things off, reducing this probability to 11.4%. Their win probability was further reduced when Paul LoDuca followed with a groundout to third base. As Dmitri Young stepped up to bat, the Nationals had justs a 4.8% shot at winning this game.

Young showed patience and worked a walk, increasing the Nationals’ win expectancy to a whopping 9.95%. With a 2-2 count, Ronnie Belliard then harnessed his power, and belted a line drive home run over the wall to end the game. This game was rather meaningless in the grand scheme of the 2008 baseball season, but Belliard’s walkoff, which produced an expectancy swing of 90.05%, the second biggest offensive play of the year, just goes to show that even the worst of teams can produce some exciting action.

On February 6, 1998, the Yankees acquired Chuck Knoblauch from the Twins for a four-player package including prospects Eric Milton and Christian Guzman. Following a relatively poor rookie season in which his OPS+ was just 38, Guzman’s sophomore campaign saw him smack 25 doubles, 20 triples and jump to a 70 OPS+. Next year, in 2001, he performed so well that, despite playing no more than 118 games, he finished 16th in MVP voting. From 2002-2004, his OPS+ regressed to the seemingly expected range of 77-79. The Washington Nationals liked his fielding, approach, and perhaps his still not yet reached potential and inked him to a nice contract prior to the 2005 season.

Guzman promptly pulled a “Beltran,” which is my new term for someone who performs poorly in the first year of a big and/or new contract. During that season, he posted a Bloomquist-like .574 OPS. Christian missed the entire 2006 season, but returned towards the end of last year, playing 46 games and posting an .846 OPS. Though it was less than one third of the season, his rates were better than ever, leading some in the fantasy world to buy low, in the hope that he could parlay that production into a very solid 2008 season.

He has not disappointed this year. In 132 games, his OPS is .787, which is the highest it has even been in a season in which he played 120+ games. His 9 home runs are one off of his career high, and his 34 doubles established a new career high. Additionally, his rate of strikeouts is at a personal low of 10%. Unfortunately, his rate of walks is also a very, very low 4%, the fifth lowest in the senior circuit. Guzman has always built his OBP largely off of his batting average, and this year is no different. With a BABIP of ~.340 and a very low walk percentage a good chance exists that his current numbers are not as much driven by skill as luck.

On the defensive side, he is currently at +15 at shortstop, good for fourth at the position, meaning he is producing nicely on both sides of the ball. His numbers may regress or he may establish himself capable of posting higher BABIPs, but this is the first season he has played over 130 games in which his production has been of this caliber. He may have gotten laughed at as an all-star due to each team needing a representative, but his season has definitely been all-star worthy.

I took a drive down to D.C. to take in the Nationals-Phillies game last night with my family and, following two great fielding plays, was reminded just how much I like Ryan Zimmerman. Prior to this year I had spent seven years (age 15-21) as a freelance graphics coordinator for CN8 Sports, wherein my job consisted of supplying stats to the guy who generated the on-screen graphics amongst others. One of the perks was all of the minor league games requiring my services. One of these games, involving the AA Harrisburg Senators, always stuck out due to Zimmerman’s involvement.

The game took place in August 2005, only a couple of months after the Nationals drafted Ryan, and, in my best scouting impression, he just had that look about him. I’m not too sure what that means or tells us but he just seemed to have the body, raw skills, and makeup of a future major league star. He performed quite well that game and two weeks later found himself in the major leagues. I’ll never forget thinking how remarkable it was that he had gone from college kid to relatively successful major league player in the span of two and a half or so months.

In 20 September games back in 2005, Zimmerman produced a .397/.419/.569 line, built upon a laughably unsustainable .500 BABIP. The following year, his true rookie year, he finished behind Hanley Ramirez in Rookie of the Year voting but posted extremely impressive numbers. In 157 games of plus-defense at third base, Zimm hit .287/.351/.471, with 20 home runs and 47 doubles. Playing in RFK didn’t help his home run numbers but 47 doubles as a rookie? Come on, now…

His BABIP that season was a more earthbound .329 and given his young age, 21-22 years old, it was not too insane to think that this would merely serve as a stepping stone for much greener performance pastures. Last season, however, he didn’t pick up where he left off. While playing all 162 games he hit .266/.330/.458, with 24 home runs and 43 doubles. His grand total of homers and two-baggers remained the same, as did his walk and strikeout rates, but his lower .298 BABIP resulted in a drop of twenty points in his batting average and on-base percentage.

While those numbers might be good for others, I quite simply expected more from Zimmerman. Perhaps it was merely a sophomore slump, something he would shake off this year. I’m not so sure anymore. Though he has battled injuries this year, he entered last night’s game with a .259/.300/.414 slash line. He has seemingly traded in some line drives for grounders and currently has an even lower .284 BABIP. Plugging him into both of the in-season projection systems offers this:

Marcel: 16 2B, 7 HR, .285/.351/.472 over the remainder
Total: 28 2B, 15 HR, .271/.325/.442, and an OPS of .767

ZiPS: 10 2B, 6 HR, .283/.353/.500 over the remainder
Total: 22 2B, 14 HR, .268/.322/.446, and an OPS of .768

Should he stay true to his talent level, this season should not end too differently from last season; however, in my eyes, that is not necessarily a “good” thing considering that last season signified a drop in performance from his rookie season. Though a .768 OPS in an injury-shortened season and a .788 in his sophomore season aren’t extremely different from his .822 in 2005, he is yet to take that next step towards super-stardom. Granted it may be tough to do while in a Nationals uniform but right now I’m disappointed with his production. From anyone who follows the Nationals—which, by the way the stadium looked last night constitutes a small number of fans—is there anything you have noticed with regards to Zimmerman, either this year or last? Is it injuries having an effect or has he not truly improved at all?

It seems that a common course of action for pitchers trying to revive their careers is to sign with the Nationals. Jason Simontacchi tried it; as did Esteban Loaiza and Jerome Williams. The same can be said for Pedro Astacio. Odalis Perez hopped on this year; and Tim Redding is currently experiencing some success in his second year with the team.

In his 25 games with the Nationals since the middle of last season, Redding has the following numbers:

2007: 15 GS, 84 IP, 84 H, 38 BB, 47 K, 3.64 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
2008: 10 GS, 57 IP, 44 H, 22 BB, 38 K, 3.16 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

His FIPs of 5.17 and 4.36, respectively, suggest his ERA should be higher based on controllable skills, but Redding has definitely produced well enough to at least draw some interest from teams other than the Nationals. Puzzling, too, is his domination so far of the Phillies. In five starts against them as a National, Redding’s numbers are:

vs. Phillies: 5 GS, 31 IP, 25 H, 6 ER, 10 BB, 21 K, 1.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

His FIP of around 3.57 still implies he has done quite well against one of the league’s best offenses. Is there anything different from a year ago that could be attributed to this increased relative success?

His BABIP has been lucky, coming in at .234 when it should be closer to .280, but Redding has kept this down for his entire career.

What about his BIP rates? Last year, his LD/GB/FB was 22.2/38.3/39.5; it is currently 16.0/46.3/37.7. He has replaced six percent of line drives and two percent of flyballs with grounders. Grounders that apparently have not found holes in the infield too often.

His selection and velocity is also quite interesting. Though not by leaps and bounds, his velocity has increased in all four of his pitches; his selection of them has also differed. His fastball usage is down three percent but velocity is up 1 mph; his slider usage is up ~6% and velocity is up ~1 mph; his curveball usage is down ~1% but his velocity is up 1.5 mph; and his changeup usage is down ~1.5% while velocity is up ~1.5 mph.

When put together, this selection and his location has helped him increase his K/9 and decrease his BB/9. Despite not lighting the world on fire with a high K/BB, his numbers are up from a year ago and are likely a major reason for his WHIP dip from 1.45 to 1.16.

He doesn’t strike many batters out, 5.68 K/9, and he walks 3.47 batters per nine innings, but teams should not automatically write off playing the Nationals, especially when Tim Redding is on the hill.

When Omar Minaya traded Lastings Milledge to the Nationals this offseason, for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider, the heads of many New York fans began to spin. Don’t believe me? Check out some of these comments from a New York Times blog entry detailing the trade:

Wow. Worst. GM. in Baseball. What a joke. Kazmir part 2.— Posted by Tom

Great. The Mets have now inherited 25% of the starting lineup of one of the worst teams in baseball in return for a potential star. How could the combination of Schneider/Church conceivably be better for the Mets than the combination of Torealba/Milledge. Oh wait, Church is left handed. Comforting. 6 years older and below average at best, but at least he’s left handed. And then there is the Estrada trade. What the heck is Omar doing? — Posted by Mike C

This is an absolute disaster. They make decisions like “Must trade Milledge” and then settle for garbage in return instead of realizing that he’s better and cheaper than what they get in return. Schneider is toast and cost $5mm per. Church is ok, 29 year old. I hate myself for rooting for this doomed franchise. — Posted by Sauerball

I could show more but I live by the rule of three and think these responses clearly illustrate the frustration of Mets fans that this trade took place.

While the team is off to a slower-than-expected start, Ryan Church has performed so well that I’m sure at least some of the larger group of Mets fans represented in the aforementioned quotes have rescinded a bit. Church currently leads the Mets with 10.77 BRAA and a 0.67 WPA. His slash line of .310/.378/.478 accounts for the highest batting average on the team and second highest slugging percentage. He also leads the team in hits with 35 and runs participated in (RBI+R) with 45.

Despite posting a very high .373 BABIP, Church has actually been a tad unlucky based on his line drive rate. Lining the ball 28.7% of the time we would expect his BABIP to be near .400. Where is this coming from? Well, he is hitting virtually the same amount of grounders — 42.6 last year and 42.5 right now — but has turned six percent of his flyballs from a year ago into line drives.

Should he manage to keep up this torrid pace he would finish the season hitting .314/.384/.487, with 22 HR and 119 RBI. TangoTiger’s 2008 Marcel Projections pegged him for a respectable .274/.334/.465, with 15 HR and 65 RBI.

One factor not discussed much is how Church played in a notorious pitcher’s park the last three years. Whether or not the confines of Shea Stadium will truly benefit him is yet to be seen but, from what can be seen, without his production the Mets would likely be in panic mode.