Archive for New York Mets

Omar Minaya made one of the first big offseason splashes when he signed Francisco Rodriguez to a 3-yr deal. K-Rod may be showing signs of decline, but with Billy Wagner on the shelf for most, if not all, of the season, the new single-season saves recordholder is a definite improvement over the likes of Luis Ayala and Aaron Heilman. Minaya then sent the aforementioned Heilman to the Mariners in a three team traded that netted the Mets two solid relievers: Sean Green and J.J. Putz.

His focus to date has been spent on the bullpen, which makes sense, given their struggles last season. Their starting rotation still has a spot or two to fill, though, and several players have been linked to the team.

Johan Santana, John Maine, and Mike Pelfrey will all be returning. After these three, several Mets bloggers believe that Jonathan Niese will win the final rotation spot. If not Niese, the Mets still have options in the forms of Brandon Knight and Nelson Figueroa. With 140 innings out of Niese, the current fearsome foursome may look like this next season:

Johan Santana     3.45 FIP     220 IP     +4.5 WAR
John Maine        4.35 FIP     180 IP     +2.1 WAR
Mike Pelfrey      4.08 FIP     185 IP     +2.8 WAR
Jonathan Niese    4.55 FIP     140 IP     +1.4 WAR

Before even adding the final piece to the puzzle that is their starting rotation, these four project to +10.8 wins. The four pitchers heavily linked to the Mets are: Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, and Tim Redding. Here are the projections for these four:

Derek Lowe       3.67 FIP     185 IP     +3.7 WAR
Randy Wolf       4.35 FIP     175 IP     +2.0 WAR
Oliver Perez     4.60 FIP     180 IP     +1.7 WAR
Tim Redding      4.77 FIP     159 IP     +1.3 WAR

With Lowe added to the mix, which may come to fruition very soon, the Mets rotation jumps from +10.8 wins to +14.5 wins. If you recall the post yesterday on the Giants’ chances of contending, their solid starting rotation projects to +15.4 wins. Adding Lowe places the Mets right in the thick of perhaps sporting the best rotation in the senior circuit.

Adding Wolf bumps them up to a respectable +12.8 wins; Perez shifts the rotation from +10.8 to +12.5; and Redding adds +1.3 wins to put the starters at +12.1 wins. If they were to sign Lowe and then resign Perez, Niese theoretically gets bumped and the rotation would project to +14.8 wins.

Essentially, if Niese can manage 140 innings with a 4.55 FIP, his value will be incredibly similar to that of Oliver Perez. Of course, nobody knows if Niese can produce these numbers, but adding Lowe while keeping him in the mix produces +14.5 wins; spending plenty of money on Perez, while signing Lowe, adds a mere +0.3 wins. Given that Perez will likely command a salary upwards of 20 times that of Niese, it makes more sense to give the kid a shot.

Regardless, signing Lowe to an average annual value of $15-16 mil makes sense. If he declines by a 0.7 wins each year, given his age, then he goes from +3.7 to +3.0 to +2.3 wins. If we assume a conservative 7.5% inflation rate, his fair market values in these years would be $18.5 mil, $16.5 mil, and $13.8 mil, respectively. Added together, that equates to 3-yrs/$49 mil. The contract reportedly on the table is for 3-yrs/$45-$48 mil.

The next question is: How does this rotation compare to the Phillies? The defending champs will bring back Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton. The fifth spot will be up for grabs between J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, Chan Ho Park, and Adam Eaton. My pick is Happ to win that contest, which would peg their rotation to be worth +11.8 wins.

If these projections hold true, and Niese can manage the aforementioned workload/production, then the Mets could realistically sign Redding and still have an equal rotation to the Phillies. Bringing aboard Perez and Wolf elevates them. Signing Lowe gives the Mets approximately a +2.5 win advantage in this department.

Minaya has done a good job in strengthening the ‘pen with the additions of K-Rod, Putz, and Green. Bringing Lowe to The Big Apple will further strengthen their rotation and, in my eyes, make them the team to beat in the NL East next season. It hurts me to say that, as a Phillies fan, but it will sure feel that way if Lowe signs.

The Graduate: Daniel Murphy | Born: April 1985 | 3B/OF

This former 13th round pick (2006) spent 2007 in High-A ball and ended 2008 as an important part of a team racing towards the playoffs. Thanks in part to his versatility, and hot bat, Daniel Murphy appeared in 29 games for the Mets and hit .313/.397/.473 in 131 at-bats. His left-handed bat, mix of speed and power, and ability to play third base, first base and the outfield should ensure him a spot on the Mets’ bench in 2009.

The Riser: Wilmer Flores | Born: August 1991 | Shortstop

The Mets knew they had something special when Wilmer Flores was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela, but they didn’t expect him to be this good this fast. Flores, who did not turn 17 until August, displayed amazing power for his age with an ISO of .180 in Rookie Ball, which earned him a late-season promotion to the New York Penn League (A league dominated by college draft picks). The only real knock on Flores is his lack of patience (4.7 BB%).

The Tumbler: Nick Carr | Born: April 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The good news is that not many Mets prospects took a step back in 2008. Nick Carr, though, had a disappointing season as a 21-year-old in High-A ball. He allowed 103 hits and 50 walks in 94.2 innings, along with 80 strikeouts. He learned the importance of changing speeds and must continue to work on his change-up if he wants to remain a starter.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Brad Holt | Born: August 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Brad Holt’s selection in the supplemental first round of the 2008 draft did not draw a lot of attention, but his subsequent pro debut season certainly did. Holt allowed just 43 hits in 71.1 innings, along with rates of 4.11 BB/9 and 11.94 K/9, in Short Season ball. Obviously the walks need to come down, but he has likely earned a promotion to High-A ball in 2009 and is on the fast track to New York.

The ’09 Sleeper: Jefry Marte | Born: June 1991 | Third Baseman

Jefry Marte was not as heralded a signing as Flores, but he still received half a million dollars last year as a 16-year-old. The third baseman was considered raw in many areas, but that did not show in the Rookie League this season when he hit .325/.398/.532 with a .208 ISO in 154 at-bats. His walk rate of 7.8% is OK, especially given his age and lack of experience. He could be in full-season ball next season as a 17-year-old.

Next Up: The Los Angeles Angels