Archive for Nick Swisher

The Yankees have acquired Ichiro Suzuki from the Mariners in exchange for pitching prospects D.J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar. The Mariners are also paying approximately $4.5 million of the $6.7 million remaining on Ichiro’s contract, leaving the Yankees responsible for a fairly modest $2.25 million.

According to Mariners CEO Howard Lincoln, Ichiro had approached the club requesting a trade, reasoning that the Mariners are building for the future and it was best for the team if younger players were given more playing time.

Ichiro has also become a shell of his former self, posting a .289 wOBA last season and a .281 wOBA this year, both of which rank near the league’s bottom. Since the start of last season, only Cliff Pennington, Casey McGehee and Gordon Beckham have produced lower wOBAs. Trading him must have been very difficult, but it was much easier to justify, and downright responsible, from a production standpoint.

While Safeco Field clearly has a hand in his decline, he is simply nowhere near the same player fans are accustomed to seeing. He isn’t an everyday player anymore, but it would have been tough for the Mariners to play him sporadically given his importance to the team and the community. The Yankees don’t need him to be anything more than a part-time platoon player to make this deal work out, and for Ichiro, the realization that his days as a full-time starter are done is likely easier to stomach on a playoff contender.

While it’s somewhat shocking that the Mariners dealt their franchise player — especially since most signs pointed towards his retention next season — what he could potentially provide his new club is rather intriguing. In the appropriate role and under the right circumstances, he could really benefit the Yankees down the stretch.

Simply by not playing the majority of his games at Safeco Field, which has absolutely crushed BABIP and offense in general this season, Ichiro figures to improve his seasonal line. If his numbers at the plate with the Yankees resemble his current road numbers, and his terrific fielding persists, the Yankees won’t think twice about the money they’ll spend or the prospects they dealt. If they just acquired “Road” Ichiro, this is a darned good deal that bolsters depth in an important area.

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Everybody knows that Robinson Cano is enjoying a monstrous 2010 season — with 5.2 WAR, Cano leads all Yankees players and trails just Hamilton among MLB position players. But do you know who places second on the Bronx Bombers in WAR? It’s not A-Rod. Teixeira? Nope. The Captain? CC Sabathia? Uh uh. Posada? Negative. The answer is none other than Nick Swisher, at 3.4 wins.

With a team payroll that eclipses the Gross Domestic Product of some small countries, the Yankees are both praised and scorned (depending upon which city you’re in) for their financial might. But Swisher wasn’t a lavish free agent acquisition. Rather, the club bought low on the gregarious switch-hitter after a seemingly disappointing 2008 season with the Chicago White Sox.

Swisher signed a long-term deal with the Oakland A’s in May of 2007, locking him up through the 2011 season for a total of $26.75 million (the pact also includes a $10.25 million club option for 2012, with a $1 million buyout). But the Pale Hose picked him up in January of ’08 for a package of prospects including Fautino de los Santos, Gio Gonzalez, and Ryan Sweeney. Swisher posted just a .325 wOBA and a 94 wRC+ with the White Sox, who grew tired of him and shipped him (along with Kanekoa Texeira) to the Yankees in November of ’08 for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.

While Swisher’s season was superficially disappointing, he still worked the count well (13.9 BB%) and hit for power (.191 ISO). The only real difference between the former Buckeye’s ’08 campaign and his previous work was a big dip in BABIP (.249). With New York last year, Swisher’s BABIP climbed to .272, and he showed the best secondary skills of his career — he drew ball four a whopping 16% of the time and posted a .249 ISO. The result? A personal best .375 wOBA and 132 wRC+.

In 2010, Swisher has been an offensive beast. His wOBA is up to .396 (12th among qualified MLB batters), and his park-and-league adjusted wOBA is a full 50 percent better than the average batter (150 wRC+). But the way in which he has achieved those results is different.

Sure, Swisher is still crushing the ball — his ISO is .251. But he’s walking much less this season (9.4%, compared to a career 13.5 BB%). The 29-year-old, normally an extremely patient hitter, has been more of a free swinger. Take a look at his rate of swings on pitches thrown outside and inside the strike zone:

He’s still taking a cut at fewer outside pitches than the average batter, but he’s chasing more than in years past. On in-zone offerings, he’s letting it rip more than most.

Courtesy of Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, here are Swisher’s swing rates by pitch type. I also included the league average swing rates, provided by Harry Pavlidis of The Hardball Times:

There is an across-the-board increase, with the biggest spikes occurring on fastballs and changeups. According to our Pitch Type Run Values, Swisher’s smacking fastballs like usual (+2.07 runs per 100 pitches thrown in 2010, +1.12 career). His run values against breaking stuff are much higher than usual this year — +1.66 versus sliders (-0.73 career) and +0.96 against the deuce (-0.59). He’s at -0.97 runs/100 with the changeup (+0.20).

Swisher’s line hasn’t suffered due to the lower walk rate because his BABIP has shot up to .333. His career average is .283, and his expected BABIP (xBABIP), based on his rate of home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, pop ups, and ground balls, is .296. He’s getting more hits on grounders and line drives than in any previous season:

Much has been made about Swisher’s work with hitting coach Kevin Long — Swish’s stride is shorter and more closed off, with his hands closer to his body. I’m not a swing coach, and I don’t have Long’s expertise. So, I won’t speculate whether those alterations have made Swisher better equipped to handle breaking stuff. It can be easy to fall into a cause/effect trap, though, pinpointing a specific reason for a change in performance when it could be random.

If I had to make a wager, I would bet that Swisher will remain an excellent hitter, but won’t keep flirting with a .400 wOBA as more balls put in play find leather.

I have a strange affinity for the Home Run Derby. It spawns from watching re-runs of the old school Home Run Derby TV series, originally aired in 1960. The rules were different back then — two hitters went head-to-head, squaring off in a nine-inning “game” in which each batter got three outs per inning. If a player didn’t swing at a pitch in the zone, it counted as an out. Between turns, a batter would kick back and chat with host Mark Scott. The winner got a check for two grand and the chance to defend his title the next week against a new opponent. The list of those who competed — Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle among them — is a who’s who of all-time greats.

It’s true, the current form of the Home Run Derby doesn’t compare to its progenitor. The field of contestants doesn’t always include a cavalcade of stars. Sometimes, it seems like hitters take 20 pitches right down the middle before letting ‘er rip. And, the broadcast of the event really should come with a public service announcement imploring viewers to turn down the volume, lest they be haunted in their sleep by shrieks of “backbackbackback.”

Yet, despite its flaws, I watch intently. There’s something enthralling about those majestic moon shots. This year, the list of derby contestants includes Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Nick Swisher and Vernon Wells from the American League, and Corey Hart, Matt Holliday, Hanley Ramirez and Chris Young from the National League. While I don’t claim this will have any predictive value — having a BP coach lobbing mid-60’s fastballs down the pike is quite another thing from game conditions — I thought it would be fun to take a closer look at tonight’s contestants. Where do they hit their homers, how hard are they hit, and how far do those taters travel?

Here’s a chart showing where the HR derby competitors have gone yard this season. I listed switch-hitter Swisher’s numbers from both sides of the plate:

Not surprisingly, most of the contestants’ home run power comes to the pull side of the field. Cabrera is crushing the ball both to the pull side and the opposite field — his home run per fly ball percentage to the pull side is 65 (27.2% MLB average for RHB), and it’s 14% to the opposite side (2.8% MLB average for RHB). Hart and Ramirez have also gone to the opposite field more than most, while Ortiz and Swisher have hit a decent number of homers to center.

Courtesy of Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, here’s how the HR Derby contestants rank in terms of speed off the bat on those homers. The MLB average, for comparison’s sake, is 103.4 MPH:

Wells (106.8 MPH) leads the pack, followed by Holliday (106.1), Cabrera (105.2), Ortiz (104.2), Ramirez (104.1), Young (102.7), Swisher (102.3) and Hart (101.9).

Who’s hitting the longest homers? Hit Tracker measures the “Standard Distance” for home runs hit. From the site, here’s the definition:

The estimated distance in feet the home run would have traveled if it flew uninterrupted all the way down to field level, and if the home run had been hit with no wind, in 70 degree air at sea level. Standard distance factors out the influence of wind, temperature and altitude, and is thus the best way of comparing home runs hit under a variety of different conditions.

Here’s how the derby hopefuls rank in terms of Standard Distance homers. The MLB average is 393.8 feet:

Wells (406.5 Feet) and Holliday (406.1) again rank first and second. Ramirez (400.2), Ortiz (398.8), Cabrera (396.8), Swisher (396.4) and Young (394.5) all best the big league average, while Hart (392.5) comes in below that mark. Hart is tied for the major league lead in “Just Enough” homers, with 10. Just Enough’s, per Hit Tracker, clear “the fence by less than 10 vertical feet,” or land “less than one fence height past the fence.”

And finally, to pre-empt against any cries of “the derby screwed up his swing!,” here are the contestants’ current wOBA totals, as well as their projected rest-of-season wOBA figures from ZiPS. In other words, here’s what they have done so far, and here’s what we can reasonably expect in the second half:

Six out of eight project to hit worse in the second half. Some of these guys have greatly exceeded their previously established level of performance. Even accounting for the spike in production (ZiPS incorporates data from the current season), they figure to regress somewhat when games resume Thursday. If Hart doesn’t continue hitting bombs at a prodigious rate, it’s not because of some HR derby hex — it’s the product of regression to the mean.

Matt Holliday and Nick Swisher had very different 2008 campaigns, with the former producing his third consecutive season with a wOBA north of .400 and the latter suffering from the BABIP flu, hitting just .219/.332/.410. With only a year remaining on his contract and slim chances that he would resign, the Rockies sent Holliday to the Athletics. Swisher joined the Yankees roster in exchange for Wilson Betemit and two prospects following several verbal bouts with White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. Entering this season, both players had something to prove: that Swisher’s .251 BABIP leading to a .325 wOBA was a fluke and that Holliday could post solid offensive numbers without the assistance of Coors Field.

Through their first ten games, Swisher became a Yankees legend and confirmation biases reigned supreme with regards to Holliday’s “inability” to hit on the road:

Games 1-10
Swisher: .406/.486/1.000
Holliday: .278/.333/ .444

Then Swisher cooled substantially, bringing his numbers a bit closer to Earth. Meanwhile, Holliday got on base less often and exhibited diminished power:

Games 11-20
Swisher: .211/.362/.368
Holliday: .262/.311/.405

Over their next ten games, Holliday’s batting average and slugging percentage resembled Swisher’s in the above span, but he did not get on base nearly as often. Swisher took some walks and, despite not recording an abundance of hits, those that did add to his seasonal total were generally of the extra base variety:

Games 21-30
Swisher: .200/.359/.533
Holliday: .211/.318/.368

As you can imagine, after thirty games, many were convinced that Swisher had found his stroke and that Holliday would prove to be a bust as an Athletic.

Game 31-Present
Swisher: .119/.269/.190
Holliday: .342/.468/.526

In their most recent stretches, Holliday has closely resembled the MVP candidate witnessed in Colorado while Swisher put up Nick Punto-esque numbers (.181/.290/198 in 2009). When all of these stretches are combined, Swisher is hitting .225/.360/.493 while Holliday sits at .264/.350/.421. Ignoring batting average, Swisher is still in the midst of a bounce back season with a .369 wOBA matching his output from 2006, when he launched 35 home runs. Unfortunately, Swisher’s BABIP has not regressed, resting at .256. It will be incredibly difficult to sustain this type of performance with a BABIP so low, but his BA does not paint an accurate performance portrait at all.

Holliday has improved over his last ten or so games, but that seasonal line is still lacking. To date, his closest slash line comp is Skip Schumaker of the Cardinals, certainly not company Holliday is accustomed to keeping. The season still has legs, but even with ZiPS projecting better performance out of the former Rockies star, his poor performance so far has definitely affected his true talent level. Should the ZiPS projections come to fruition, Holliday would finish the season hitting .279/.359/.458, numbers that have consistently garnered employment for Raul Ibanez but not what we have come to expect from Holliday. Then again, Matt could pick up steam, continue this torrid stretch, and make people forget he ever struggled. The change of scenery may have helped Swisher enjoy himself more and potentially start anew, but it has worked in the opposite way for Holliday.

Nick Swisher may have had a relatively poor season in his White Sox debut, but he did manage to have at least one shining moment in 2008. Overall, he put up a .219/.332/.410 line. Though he still walked plenty of the time and managed to produce an almost identical ISO to the year before, his .251 BABIP definitely hurt his total production. Even if it had been closer to .280, still well below the average, his overall line would have looked much different, the OPS would not have been as drastically lower than the previous two seasons, and not as many would have looked down on him as they did this season. Regardless, on August 5, Nick the Stick gave us the ninth-biggest swing in win expectancy, in a game he didn’t even start!

Paul Konerko started the game at first base, hitting in the sixth spot, but was lifted after his plate appearance in the tenth inning. Swisher relieved him of his duty, and managed to record two plate appearances from the 11th-14th inning. The game graph is below:

In the bottom of the fourteenth, the Tigers sent flamethrower Joel Zumaya to the hill with an 8-6 lead, hoping to add to the Tigers win column. Zumaya had missed the first half of the season, but in his first fourteen appearances since returning from the deal, posted a 1.65 ERA. His walks and strikeouts were another story (15 BB and 16 K in those 14 outings), but he had been getting the job done. He then proceeded to give up one earned run in each of his next three outings, so his hot streak had been extinguished.

At the start of the frame, the White Sox had a 10.3% of winning the game. Orlando Cabrera greeted Zumaya with a single to left field, increasing their win expectancy to 19.9%. AJ Pierzynski then flew out, decreasing their expectancy to 11%. Carlos Quentin made up for the flyout by doubling to right field, putting runners at second and third, and giving the White Sox a 30.5% shot at actually winning the game. With one out and two runners in scoring position, Jermaine Dye hit a grounder to Edgar Renteria, who couldn’t handle the ball, allowing Cabrera to score, Quentin to move to third base, and Dye to reach base on the error.

With the score now 8-7, and runners on the corners with one out, it would take nothing more than a flyout to tie the game. In stepped Jim Thome. The White Sox now had a 47.5% chance of winning this game. Unfortunately, Thome could not get his bat on the ball, and he struck out swinging, reducing their expectancy to 21.2%. This set the stage for Nick Swisher. With two outs, runners on the corners, and an 8-7 deficit, Swisher prepared to face Zumaya. The first two pitches were balls, giving him the opportunity to sit dead-red and wait for a fastball. He then took strike one, making the count 2-1, before Zumaya reached back and delivered a fastball. Swisher jumped all over hit and sent the ball into the stands, delivering a walkoff three-run home run.

The home run, which gave the White Sox a 10-8 victory, swung the win expectancy by 78.8%, the ninth highest offensive swing from this season.