Archive for Odalis Perez

The Los Angeles Angels have experienced a slew of unfortunate injuries on top of the devastating death of young Nick Adenhart. If starting the season without Kelvim Escobar in the rotation wasn’t bad enough, John Lackey and Ervin Santana were both lost to ailments with the jury still out as to when they will return. Though the Scioscia-led Halos always seem to find a way to win, as Dave recently noted, all of this hardship might be too much.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Angels are currently showing interest in Paul Byrd, Pedro Martinez, and Mark Mulder. Tony Reagins isn’t going to sign all three of these unemployed hurlers but Robo’s report suggested that there is a better than good chance that one of them ends up in California by summer’s end. All three have issues, however, ranging from Byrd’s desire to play to the shaky health histories of both Martinez and Mulder.

Mark Mulder has not pitched a full season since 2005 when a +2.2 win value deemed him a league average pitcher. He had experienced great success in Oakland for several years before going to St. Louis in the Dan Haren deal, but his time in St. Louis worked out about as well as Carl Pavano’s with the Yankees. In 2006, he made 17 starts and posted an ugly 6.01 FIP in 93.1 innings of work, and had made just six total appearances over the last two seasons. At 31 years old, Mulder is not exactly a decrepit southpaw trying to hang on, but while his previous success will garner at least one more opportunity to pitch in the big leagues, why would the Angels, a team ridden with pitching injuries, sign someone with his history?

The same goes for Pedro Martinez, who might be a league average pitcher when healthy but who spends more time on the disabled list than on the roster. With Pedro, some think that signing him for just half of a season will eliminate the wear and tear that leads to his issues, but again, why take that risk?

Byrd publicly stated he was going to sit out the first half of the season, an odd move given that he has not exactly been at the top of everyone’s wishlist. Though durable, Byrd has not been truly effective since the 2005 season with the very same Angels. Strangely enough, Byrd’s strikeout rates experienced a sharp dropoff between the 2004 and 2005 seasons and have never looked back. He no longer fans hitters at a rate in the vicinity of the league average but is still tremendous with limiting free passes.

If the Angels were going to sign any of these three pitchers, given their injury troubles, Byrd makes the most sense given his durability. The bigger question is why would these three cover substantial ground on the Reagins Radar? A guy like Odalis Perez is available, likely for a fraction of the price of Pedro, and with much more of a track record for staying healthy than Mulder. I’m not necessarily advocating that the Angels sign Perez but rather questioning why their search would be somewhat limited to Martinez, Byrd and Mulder. A team suffering from pitching ailments should in no way, shape or form, bring in equally risky players to fill the void.

After it became abundantly clear that the Mets were going in a different direction to fill the back of their rotation, Pedro Martinez had very limited options. Teams certainly had interest in his services but not for the $5-6 mil asking price. Considering that Martinez is closer to replacement level than very productive these days and that he is an incredible injury risk the hesitance made perfect sense. Many advocated the signing of an incentive-laden deal that would pay Martinez handsomely if he actually stayed on the field. Not realizing that he is but a shell of his former self, Martinez rejected the idea of such deals.

When nobody bit, he resorted to using the World Baseball Classic as an audition of sorts. Pedro did not exactly “wow!” anyone in the WBC and continues to remain available. Yet instead of lowering his asking price in the hopes that someone will bite, Pedro is now resigned to the idea that a team will see a pitcher or two go down with injuries and view him as a knight in shining armour… worth $5-6 mil on a guaranteed deal.

Mitch Williams mentioned that the Cleveland Indians might be a fit especially with the uncertainty surrounding someone like Carl Pavano. The Angels are certainly not among the interested parties as they are convinced injured pitchers like Ervin Santana and John Lackey could be ready in the same amount of time that it would take a free agent to prepare. The aforementioned Halo stalwarts certainly project more optimistic lines than Martinez as well.

Beyond Pedro, Odalis Perez is still available, and though it may seem as if I am beating a dead horse here, Perez is still quite productive and incredibly consistent. Over the last four years he has virtually posted identical +1.5 win values. How someone like Tim Redding was given a guaranteed deal by a contender with worse production and a more storied injury history than the equally aged Perez, who couldn’t even get a major league contract from the Washington Nationals will continue to puzzle me.

Pedro Martinez has had a tremendous career. He is a first ballot hall of famer and, in my eyes at least, owner of the two best pitched seasons in the rich history of this sport. He should not be signed, however, for anything above what Odaliz Perez could be signed for given that the latter has proven himself durable over the last several seasons and closer to league average. Pedro might provide better value when healthy but if I am investing a certain amount of money and have two options, my risk-averse personality is going to lean in the direction of the more reliable option. Pedro is one of the best pitchers of all time but he is not anymore, and $5 mil at this point for a fifth starter who might make three starts and then miss the rest of the season just does not make sense for a team, especially given that the teams in question are looking to fill voids that came undone due primarily to injuries.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote here about the odd contract Odalis Perez signed with the Washington Nationals. The deal, non-guaranteed, would pay Perez just $850,000 if he ended up making the team. My major points of contention were that a) Perez has been eerily consistent over the last four seasons, putting up win values of +1.6, +1.4, +1.5, and +1.5 and b) Perez projected to be worth right around +1.5 wins again in 2009, a fair market value of around $6.5 mil. It also made little sense that Tim Redding, essentially the same age yet much less productive in the recent past, would garner a guaranteed deal worth three times the money.

Well, apparenty Odalis reads Fangraphs and agrees with my assessment because he is now in the process of holding out for a better deal. Okay, he probably has no idea about this site, but the timing sure seems like he does. Perez stated that the more he thought about the contract, the more it bothered him. He wants his work last season to be appreciated and feels he deserves a guaranteed spot in the rotation with at least a bit more money. Honestly, I can’t blame him.

However, I can blame him for reaching his epiphany at this juncture. If someone offers me a contract, I’m going to carefully think over my options as well as the terms and then make a decision. This situation has the feel to it that Odalis signed the first deal thrown his way after experiencing the harsh market and then realized after the fact he was taken advantage of. The situation also seems similar to a prima-donna actor who feels a part should be given to him without auditioning because he has delivered solid performances in past films. Perhaps the actor, and Perez, should receive guarantees sans auditions, but these are contractual terms to be negotiated before signing, not afterwards.

If Perez does have a deal considered binding by the MLB and the Players Association, the right thing to do would be to honor the deal and report to camp. What makes little sense here is that Perez has no offers from opposing teams, and the best deal he could conjure up involved a non-guaranteed $850K from the equivalent of a Quad-A team. What does he expect is going to happen? That he’ll captain the Dominican team to the WBC Championship and the Yankees will offer him a 2-yr/$8 mil guaranteed deal? This simply is not likely to occur. If Odalis Perez wants to play baseball this year he should honor the contract he signed. It may be a lowballing deal and he may be worth more, but he should have thought about these things prior to signing.

With Spring Training set to kick off in about a week, the storylines involving several high-profile free agents will only grow increasingly more dramatic. Based on the headlines, the market for pitchers seemingly dwindled down to the extremely risky right arm of Ben Sheets and the questionable skillset of lefty Randy Wolf. I have already covered how Braden Looper is realistically just as talented at Wolf while simultaneously costing a fraction of the money, but another pitcher has flown under the radar: Odalis Perez.

Perez’s name was recently withdrawn from the list of available hurlers, though, as he inked a minor league deal with the Washington Nationals. The deal is interesting given that it comes in the non-guaranteed form with a maximum potential salary well under the eventual deals that will be signed by Wolf and Looper. If Odalis makes the team, he can earn $850,000, which seems a bit off. Granted he played for the Washington Nationals last season, but he still produced to the tune of +1.5 wins.

He also does not carry the inconsistencies of the other pitchers. His win values over the last four years: +1.6, +1.4, +1.5, +1.5. Last season, he produced a 4.62 FIP in 159 IP. Marcel has his 2009 pegged at a very similar 4.59 FIP in 151 IP. There really is no reason to think Perez could not be equally as valuable as last season. Perez has somehow managed to garner a reputation for being old despite the fact that he won’t turn 32 until June.

Tim Redding is one year younger than Perez, and over the last four seasons has an aggregate win value of 1.0. Despite a minimal age discrepancy and the performance differences pointing very favorably in Perez’s direction, Redding signed a guaranteed $2.25 mil contract while Odalis will have to settle for one third of that salary once he makes the actual major league roster.

Why the Mets didn’t spring for Perez is beyond me, especially given that they apparently valued a consistent 5th-starter type quite highly. And, on that note, why did Perez have to settle for the Nationals anyways? He isn’t as attractive as the top-tier free agent pitchers but teams could do much worse than he as a back of the rotation starter, especially on a low risk, high reward contract. Perez should easily make the big league team and the current contract values him at +0.2 wins, under one seventh of the win values he has produced in each of the last four seasons. A good deal for the Nationals even if it won’t make any difference whatsoever.