Archive for Pat Burrell

The San Francisco Giants won the World Series last season in large part due to a fantastic pitching staff. However, the offense provided timely hitting down the stretch of the regular season and in the playoffs thanks to some key acquisitions made before, or during, the season. Oddly enough, three of the key players on their championship squad were picked up off of the scrapheap. Each member of the trio was available to virtually every team either through free agency, outright release, or waivers, yet all three wound up in San Francisco, and boy did they pay dividends.

Aubrey Huff was acquired at the start of the season, after having put together an abysmal 2009 campaign. He produced 1.8 wins below replacement level that year as part of an erratic prime. Pat Burrell joined the team in June after being released by the Rays. Suffice to say, he came nowhere near living up to expectations after signing a two-year deal to DH for the reigning AL champs. Cody Ross was acquired off of waivers towards the end of August, costing only his remaining $1 million in salary.

These three players illustrated the inherent value in scouring different areas of the talent spectrum. Not every move needs to be substantial to make a difference, and sometimes improving in a few smaller areas can reap the same reward.

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This offseason has been particularly interesting, as seven, count them, seven, corner outfielders with similar skillsets hit the open market. Bobby Abreu, Garrett Anderson, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Raul Ibanez and Manny Ramirez all became free agents, all looking to hit a big payday. To date, only Ibanez has signed, and that deal has been largely lampooned.

With a surplus at the position, the market price has seemingly been driven down. After all, why pay an exorbitant fee for Burrell if Abreu could be had for slightly less? Or, replace either of those two names with any of the aforementioned others and the rhetorical question still works. Anderson is a better fielder than hitter, but the remaining players can all be classified as good-hitting, bad-fielding players.

If we want to include Anderson in the mix, this classification can be adjusted to show that these seven players are all one-dimensional.

Going along with the idea of positional adjustments that Dave has written so much about this week, I thought it would be interesting to show the production levels and dollar valuations for everyone sans-Ibanez at both the corner outfield position and designated hitter spot.

Before examining the results, let it be known that the positional adjustments are -7.5 runs per 162 games for LF, and -17.5 runs per 162 games for DH. Short of 162 games, these are prorated. The value above replacement is +20 runs per 600 PA, prorated below that number. Here are the results if they signed on as a leftfielder:

Name        PA/GP    wRAA   UZR    Pos.   Adj.  WAR
Abreu      600/159   16.0  -14.0   20.0  -7.4   +1.46
Anderson   540/140   -6.0    5.0   18.0  -6.5   +1.05
Burrell    600/157   19.0  -12.0   20.0  -7.4   +1.97
Dunn       600/159   23.0  -12.0   20.0  -7.4   +2.36
Griffey    550/130    2.0  -13.0   18.0  -6.0   +0.10
Ramirez    580/150   35.0  -12.0   19.0  -6.9   +3.51

As a corner outfielder, Ramirez is still the cream of the crop, with Dunn coming in over one win less valuable. Griffey is essentially the definition of a replacement player, and the rest project as below average players. In Burrell’s case, he projects as an average player next year, but at his age, a sharper decline isn’t out of the question. How about if they were to serve as designated hitters instead of outfielders?

To convert to designated hitters, we prorate the -17.5 positional adjustment per 162 games and get rid of the UZR projections. This bumps up the value of Burrell, Abreu, Dunn, Manny, and Griffey. Anderson, who projects to be below average offensively, loses value.

Burrell shifts from +1.97 to +2.20. Abreu from +1.46 to +1.88. Dunn from +2.36 to +2.58. Manny from +3.51 to +3.70. And Griffey from +0.10 to +0.60. Anderson digresses from +1.05 to -0.30, becoming a below replacement level player if he signs as a designated hitter. Translated to dollars, here are the discrepancies between being a LF and DH:

Name       LF WAR   LF FMV    DH WAR    DH FMV
Abreu      +1.46    $7.30     +1.88     $9.40
Anderson   +1.05    $5.20     -0.30     $0.40
Burrell    +1.97    $9.85     +2.20    $11.00
Dunn       +2.36   $11.80     +2.58    $12.90
Griffey    +0.10    $0.50     +0.60     $3.00
Ramirez    +3.51   $17.55     +3.70    $18.50

These results suggest that everyone but Anderson would better serve their team as a designated hitter than leftfielder. For teams, perhaps the most financially interesting dilemma is how much to offer these players given how many of them are on the market. If teams can sign these players for their leftfield fair market value and play them at DH, they will get a steal of sorts. But, if the Ibanez signing is a sign of things to come, teams still do not understand the value of defense.

Still, the calendar year is almost over and these six players are yet to find new homes. A couple may get the paydays initially sought, but others may have to substantially lower their requests to garner a full year’s worth of playing time.

One of the big decisions for first-year GM Ruben Amaro, Jr, is whether or not he will retain Pat Burrell. Burrell is a three true outcomes hitter who plays poor defense at a corner outfield position. There are plenty of those on the market this season, driving down the price. In many other off-seasons, players like Burrell and Adam Dunn would likely command $14 mil or so, while now it appears more likely that they will earn something in the $10-11 mil range. Regardless of the exactitudes, Burrell’s love for the city and the market surplus of like-players means he could be had for a lesser fee.

His defense stinks, though, and he would be better-suited to serve as a DH for an AL team. Though Burrell has been one of my favorite players for years, if he were to sign elsewhere and the Phillies could replace him, perhaps with a slightly less productive hitter but more solid defender, this Phightins phan would not be particularly upset. I would, however, be upset if Amaro let Burrell go elsewhere and signed one of the other good-hitting, no-defense corner outfielders to replace him.

According to Jayson Stark, this may come to fruition, as the defending champs and Raul Ibanez seemingly have strong mutual interest. As Peter Griffin would say, this really grinds my gears!

Before even looking at the numbers, let it be known that Burrell is 32 and Ibanez is 37. Players like these two do not age particularly well, and yet the Phillies seem more willing to give a multi-year deal to someone five years older than their “current” left-fielder. I’m sure Ibanez is a standup guy and a positive influence in the clubhouse, but it isn’t as if Burrell is Sidney Ponson/Milton Bradley attitude-wise. For this to even make sense, Ibanez would have to project much better offensively, and at least a little better defensively.

Burrell’s 2009 Marcel wOBA is .369 to the .344 of Ibanez. This translates to +19 runs offensively for Burrell and just +6 for Ibanez. Both are likely to play the whole season, so we dock 7.5 runs for an adjustment. Meanwhile, Burrell would get +17 runs to adjust to value above replacement while Ibanez would get +18 runs. Now, we move onto defense. Both of these guys have been either the worst, or among the worst, defensive left-fielders over the past two seasons.

A rough UZR projection has them both at around -12 or -13 runs defensively for 2009. If we consider them both to be -12, then Burrell is, all told, +16.5 runs above replacement. Ibanez… is +5.5 runs. Translated to wins, we’re talking about +1.65 wins vs. +0.55 wins.

I have nothing against Ruben Amaro, Jr. Heck, I played baseball with his nephew and his brother even donated bases and balls to a league my father and I used to run. He will have to forgive me, though, for failing to understand why he would pursue a player worth over a full win less and who is five years older than a player he could likely easily re-sign. If you do not want Burrell back, fine, but do not replace him with someone less productive than he and much older in baseball terms.

Even if this deal were just for one season, I still would not like it, because it isn’t as if the Phillies have a top-tiered prospect waiting in the wings to take over the position. If you do not plan on re-signing Burrell, it makes no sense to sign someone with similar skills that is less productive, older, and almost as, if not equally, costly.

Well, it’s official: my Phillies phever has officially worn off, and now it’s back to business as usual, worrying about what they will do in the off-season. Newly appointed GM Ruben Amaro wasted no time signing lefty reliever Scott Eyre, and it is believed that the Phillies will also re-sign Jamie Moyer, even if the deal lasts two years. Otherwise, just about everyone not currently locked down to a long-term deal is eligible for arbitration. Most, if not all, of these players—Greg Dobbs, Joe Blanton, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Chad Durbin, Shane Victorino, Ryan Madson, and Jayson Werth—are going to win their case, meaning raises will be due across the board.

This will make it harder for Amaro to go out and sign an impact player, though most of the positions are already set in stone, with the bulk of their core returning. The only true question mark at this point involves the outfield. Victorino and Werth will be back, and together form a tandem of all-around, very productive players, that many people still don’t know about. Pat Burrell’s spot is another story.

Burrell has mentioned numerous times that he would love to return, but he is currently seeking a three-year deal. Speculation surfaced that Amaro would offer two years, so if he ups the deal to a third year, it is very likely that Burrell returns. With free agent starting tomorrow, though, my personal feeling is that Pat the Bat will be offered much more money elsewhere, an opportunity cost too great for him to offer a hometown discount and return.

The trio of Burrell, Victorino, and Werth formed one of the top, if not the top, offensive outfields in 2008, combining for a WPA/LI of just under seven wins above average. Defensively, Victorino was about two wins above average with a positional adjustment; Werth was about a half of a win above average; and Burrell was just under two and a half wins below average. All told, factoring in offense and defense, the Phillies outfield was close to seven wins above average this past season.

There were rumors that the Phillies would send a package headlined by Victorino to the Rockies for Matt Holliday, but Ken Mandel of MLB.com recently reported that the two clubs were never realistically close to making a deal. If they opt to resign Burrell, and are able to make a deal in the same range as other suitors, here are the projections for 2009:

Pat Burrell:     .253/.377/.490, 32 HR, 29 2B
Jayson Werth:    .279/.369/.484, 25 HR, 25 2B, 21 SB
Shane Victorino: .286/.345/.428, 13 HR, 24 2B, 27 SB

If Burrell signs elsewhere, Amaro has mentioned that he would likely platoon the left-handed combo of Geoff Jenkins, Matt Stairs, and Greg Dobbs with a right-handed bat signed from the free agent market. The righty bats that have been linked to the Phillies are Kevin Mench, Rocco Baldelli, Jerry Hairston, and most recently, albeit from a trade and not free agency, Jermaine Dye. Below are the projections for these players:

Geoff Jenkins:  .257/.330/.441, 15 HR, 22 2B
Kevin Mench:    .264/.322/.430,  7 HR, 16 2B
Rocco Baldelli: .279/.330/.465, 12 HR, 18 2B
Jerry Hairston: .264/.333/.391,  4 HR, 14 2B
Jermaine Dye:   .270/.334/.491, 31 HR, 33 2B
Matt Stairs:    .242/.341/.409, 12 HR, 17 2B 
Greg Dobbs:     .284/.329/.432,  8 HR, 16 2B

Other than Dye, who is a very significant power threat, all of these players have very similar projections for next season. Defensively, believe it or not, but Jenkins was +6 in 2006, and +18 as the second best left-fielder in 2007, before being right around average in his limited rightfield role in 2008. He might not be worth two wins above average defensively, but he is certainly more defensively sound than Burrell. Mench was +5 in rightfield in 2007, and +2 in limited duty this season. Baldelli doesn’t have a large enough sample size to base defensive evaluations on, but he should be no worse than average, which is about the same for Hairston.

Dye has posted the following numbers: -14, -41, -17. He has ranged from around 1.5-2 wins below average defensively, which comes pretty close to cancelling out the offensive production. At this stage in his career, Stairs is nothing more than an offensive threat, and while a larger role for Dobbs is likely merited, his arm is suspect and he is not a natural outfielder.

Dye is owed 11.5 million in 2009, and has a club option for 2010 worth 12 million. Oddly enough, that 23.5 million is about the same amount Amaro has hinted he would be offering to Burrell. This is all assuming Dye is even being dangled, which he very well may not be. If they lose Burrell to free agency, and opt to go with a Jenkins/Mench, Jenkins/Baldelli, or Jenkins/Hairston platoon, they are going to lose some offensive production, but improve defensively. With both Utley and Howard entrenched in the lineup, a big righty power bat sure would be nice, but Jenkins is due to perform better than he did in 2008, and a nice righty platoon partner wouldn’t be as dramatic a dropoff in total production (both offensively and defensively) as many would think.

With Game Five of the 2008 World Series tied at three runs apiece, Pat Burrell stepped up to the plate against JP Howell, and promptly smashed a double off of the left-centerfield wall. The shot came within an inch of leaving the yard, and as he made his way back to the dugout in favor of a pinch-runner, he seemed to possess the look of somebody who has just experienced his final plate appearance with a team. Eric Bruntlett, the pinch-runner, eventually came around to score what would amount to the game- and World Series-winning run.

This was arguably the biggest moment of his career, but his biggest moment of the regular season came months earlier, in a game I actually got to attend. Though he has always been a hot or cold player, Burrell has been eerily consistent over the last several seasons. On May 2, however, he was putting the finishing touches on a Pujols-esque hot streak. Entering the early May affair with the Giants, Burrell was one of the top offensive players in baseball with a .333/.454/.677 line to go along with 8 HR and 9 2B in just 119 plate appearances. The graph for this May 2 game, which produced the third top offensive play of the season, is below:

The game began with quite the forgettable pitching matchup: Kyle Kendrick vs. Patrick Misch. Chase Utley backed Kendrick early by belting a two-run homer in the bottom of the first, a score that would hold until the top of the fourth. Trailing by two, former Phillie Aaron Rowand doubled to the delight of his hardcore fans, and came around to score on a Jose Castillo single. Wasting no time in retaliating, Pat Burrell walked and Pedro Feliz smacked a two-run homer of his own against his former team. The Phillies led 4-1 and seemed on their way to an easy victory.

Kendrick pitched a scoreless fifth and sixth before being lifted in the top of the seventh on the heels of surrendering consecutive singles to Castillo and Emmanuel Burriss. Ryan Madson came in, and things sort of broke down. Keep in mind this was back in May, and not September or October, when the entire country essentially saw Madson dominate with an out-of-nowhere 96 mph fastball. With two on, and nobody out, Eugenio Velez singled to load the bases.

Madson then got a key out by fanning Fred Lewis, but things broke down from there. Ray Durham stepped in and roped a two-run single to right, bringing the score to 4-3. Randy Winn followed with a little single of his own, once again loading the bases. Bengie Molina then grounded out, scoring Velez, and knotting the game at four runs each. The seventh, eighth, and ninth innings would all pass before any more runs would score.

JC Romero started the top half of the tenth for the Phillies, and was rudely greeted by an Aaron Rowand home run. The rest of the inning was rocky for Romero, but he eventually got out of a jam with the Phillies trailing 5-4. As the bottom of the tenth began, the Phillies had a 20.6% probability of winning the game. That mark dropped 11.5% when Jayson Werth led off by striking out against flamethrowing closer Brian Wilson. Chase Utley promptly singled to right, raising their expectancy to 21.4%.

Ryan Howard was due up next, and mostly everyone in attendance felt he would deliver a walkoff home run. After all, not only is Wilson a righty, but he was a righty who predominantly threw fastballs, precisely the recipe for disaster with a guy like Howard. Unfortunately, things didn’t work out, and Howard’s at-bat ended with a ‘K’ on the scorecard. The Phillies now had just a 10.05% probability of winning the game. As soon as Burrell’s theme music played, though, again, the reaction from the crowd was one sensing a walkoff on the horizon. Just like Howard, Burrell is quite adept at hitting fastballs with plenty of velocity.

On a full count, with two outs, in the bottom of the tenth—pretty much the cliche dramatic situation in a baseball game–Burrell absolutely crushed a deep fliner to left field. As soon as the ball made contact with the bat, everyone, including Burrell and the Phillies, knew the game had just ended. Burrell’s two-run walkoff home run off of Brian Wilson capped a torrid first 30 games, and produced an expectancy swing of 89.95%, the third most of any play this season.

In my very first post here at Fangraphs, back on April 14, I took a look at Phillies leftfielder Pat Burrell, and how his numbers had been very consistent over the last few years. They had also been consistently better than his reputation would suggest; his reputation was seemingly spawned from a very poor 2003 season following his 6 yr-50 mil extension. His batting average will only be high thanks to very high BABIPs, but based on his 2005-07 numbers, he was as much of a sure thing in the OBP, SLG, OPS, and BB department as you can find. He might not have been atop the leaderboards for each of these metrics, but you knew exactly the type of production he would provide. And, to top it off, he cut back on his strikeouts.

He started out scorchingly hot, hitting 8 home runs with a 1.126 OPS in 28 April games, before cooling in May. June and July saw “the bat” range from .956-.973 in OPS, before his much documented slide in August and September. Even when he struggled, however, he seemed capable of stepping up in crunchtime, and his 1.15 clutch score, ninth highest in baseball this year, seems to agree. On the whole, Pat hit .250/.367/.507 this year, an .875 OPS, with 33 doubles, 33 home runs, and 102 walks. Using win based metrics, he was worth about 2.5 wins above an average hitter via WPA/LI, and his 3.78 WPA ranked 12th in the sport.

As I did back in April, let’s compare his last few seasons:

2005: .389 OBP, .504 SLG, 27 2B, 32 HR, 99 BB
2006: .388 OBP, .502 SLG, 24 2B, 29 HR, 98 BB
2007: .400 OBP, .502 SLG, 26 2B, 30 HR, 114 BB
2008: .367 OBP, .507 SLG, 33 2B, 33 HR, 102 BB

His OBP was down from the previous three years but his SLG outranked his marks in 2005-07, even if by the slightest of margins. His home runs and doubles increased, evidenced by his .257 ISO, his highest in this span. Pat’s BABIP, which went from .341 to .298 to .283 from 2005-07, fell to .275 this year. The Phillies won the NL East for the second straight season, thanks in part to his hot early season performance, which made up for the slow start of Ryan Howard. Howard returned the favor over the last month of the season, but if the Phillies want to avoid a repeat of last year’s division series, both sluggers will need to be at the top of their games.

Pat will be a free agent at the end of this season, and while he has expressed a strong desire to remain in Philadelphia, it just does not seem like a viable option. His fielding has deteriorated to the point that some teams in the senior circuit may seriously shy away from him. It would appear that he would fit best in the American League, where he could work as a designated hitter, but we will have to wait and see. He has been one of the top offensive leftfielders over the last four years and it is a shame that so many in Philadelphia could not get over his very poor 2003 campaign. Burrell is not a hall of famer, and he has never even been named to the all star team, but there are many teams out there, including the Phillies, that could continue to benefit from his bat for the next few years.

Following the hour-long roster announcements yesterday all but two players–who will have to wait for the final vote–learned of their plans to venture to New York for the festivities. The rosters, which can be found here, comprise 32 of the best players in each league relative to the requirement that each team in that league be represented. Additionally, the starters are chosen by the fans and, quite simply, are not too often fully indicative of those deserving to start.

With that in mind it is almost impossible for a perfect 32-man squad to be assembled. Once past the fan voting a manager then has to make sure each team is represented, which usually means someone more deserving at that position will be left out; occasionally this more deserving player will be doubly left out after failing to secure a starting spot.

I used to get upset and take it personally when players of interest were snubbed, but as I began to mount the years on it has become too difficult to truly feel bad for people who make fifty times (sadly, I don’t even know if that’s an exaggeration anymore) what my entire family makes in a given year. Still, there are certain players sure to be snubbed because it is human nature to disagree with what has been established. Even if the all star roster choosing was automated by some specified criteria there would be hordes of fans and analysts arguing that some players had “intangibles” or “were better than the numbers.” And even if we somehow tweaked that system to take these intangibles and gritty play factors into account, some would argue how those aspects could be properly quantified.

Essentially, there is no way to pick a right all-star team other than to either brainwash a multitude of fans, take away fan voting, or take away the all-teams-represented criteria. None of these three are going to happen so it just is not worth getting upset over. Even thus, I decided to spend today looking at both leagues and trying to find the one to three most egregious snubs. For now we will look at the NL while the AL will post later tonight.

Looking at offensive WPA, 7 of the top 10 made the team, with the other three coming in the forms of Pat Burrell (2nd), Jason Bay (4th), and Carlos Lee (10th). Now, Burrell and Lee are also included on that final ballot, but for my money David Wright is going to win that in a landslide. Looking at offensive WPA/LI, Burrell ranks 4th and did not make the team, Bay ranks 8th, and the aforementioned Wright ranks 9th. When probing the WPA/LI of NL pitchers we find that Cole Hamels, at 2.42, ranks 2nd in the entire league to just Dan Haren. Tim Hudson ranks 5th and Johan Santana ranks 6th; neither of them made the squad either.

It is too tough to gauge pitchers because if I were a manager my staff would house a few starters and then a bunch of really reliable relievers. With that in mind I will say I think Hamels is more deserving than Ryan Dempster, especially given how many players the Cubs have in the game, but I’m not going to lose hypothetical sleep over his exclusion. After all, Dempster has been surprisingly good and my friends used to joke it should be called the All-Surprise Game; based on how often players surprisingly good for just one half of a season will make the team.

Some could argue Kyle Lohse is very deserving but I’ll then play devil’s advocate and ask which starting pitcher would you remove for him? He may be posting very good numbers but I’d personally feel much more comfortable with Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez, Carlos Zambrano, Ben Sheets, both Diamondbacks; and then a guy like Aaron Cook is all too similar, plus his manager is the skipper of the whole team. Then again, I’ve also seen arguments against Lohse saying that he shouldn’t make it just because of his W-L. I agree, except he wouldn’t be making the team based solely on that. He has a 3.61 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 2.00 K/BB, and 72% strand rate; he has had a very good first half, but there really just is no room for him.

This leaves us realistically with Pat Burrell and Jason Bay. Between these two it’s an easy choice for the NL’s most egregious snub. Burrell ranks 2nd in WPA in the entire sport and 4th in WPA/LI in the NL, but these are overall ranks. Amongst outfielders, none in the NL can stake claim as having been better in the first half than Burrell. When discussing Bay, it’s easier to understand why he was left off: because Nate McLouth made the team. Bay and Xavier Nady were arguably more deserving than McLouth, but Nasty Nate has had a surprising first half. Therefore, Alfonso Soriano should rest during the festivities in order to begin a domino effect of Ryan Braun or Matt Holliday starting and Burrell claiming one of their bench spots.

In my inaugural post here at Fangraphs, back on April 14th (seems like forever ago), I wrote about Phillies leftfielder Pat Burrell and how he had been extremely consistent in his productivity over the last few years. Despite this, his low batting averages, combined with a disastrous 2003 season have led some fans to value and appreciate his production much less than they should. Two months later, Burrell is still producing at a very high level; in fact, according to some metrics he is producing at a higher level than anyone else in the league.

Based on his win probability statistics, Burrell has a higher WPA (4.48) than anyone in the sport. Additionally, his WPA/LI of 2.94 ranks second and his clutch score of 1.29 deems him the third clutchiest player in the major leagues.

He has 18 home runs this year, putting him in a tie for sixth even though it is the third-highest raw total (ironically, the first and second highest raw total belong to, among others, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard). Last year, 51.4% of his balls in play were of the flyball variety; this year it has dipped to 42.4%. However, his HR/FB has actually risen from 16.2% to 24.0%.

Through 70 games, he has produced a .289/.433/.614 slash line, ultimately resulting in a 1.047 OPS. Compare that to his 2005-2007 numbers:

2005: .389 OBP, .504 SLG, .893 OPS
2006: .388 OBP, .502 SLG, .890 OPS
2007: .400 OBP, .502 SLG, .902 OPS
2008: .433 OBP, .614 SLG, 1.047 OPS

The numbers this year are so high they don’t even align in the above table! Okay, it’s still early and it’s doubtful he has changed his pre-season projection that much but he has definitely showed signs of improvement in recent years. This improvement is not evident anywhere moreso than his BB% and K%:

2004: 14.8 BB%, 29.0 K%
2005: 15.0 BB%, 28.5 K%
2006: 17.5 BB%, 28.4 K%
2007: 19.5 BB%, 25.4 K%
2008: 20.3 BB%, 23.2 K%

This has led to a BB/K increase from 0.51 in 2003 to 1.09 right now. Back on April 14th I called for the Phillies to sign Pat the Bat to a short extension, in large part due to his consistent production, love for the city and willingness to offer a hometown discount sorts; it is not very likely this will happen due to the financial situation/obligations of the team and the fact that Burrell has essentially become an AL-type player. If this is indeed Burrell’s last year with the Phillies, fans really need to appreciate the offense he provides so as to avoid generalizing an entire tenure—a quite productive one, might I add—based on one very poor year and a bad barometer such as batting average.

When I posted my article on Kosuke Fukudome yesterday, loyal reader VegasWatch pointed out that the Cubs outfielder’s opening day home run likely contributed the bulk of his 0.52 clutch score. Therefore, after being given the label of “clutch” the net sum of all of Kosuke’s clutchiness would not add up to much.

The formula for clutch, as defined in the glossary here, is:

Clutch = WPA/pLI – WPA/LI

For further clarification, pLI refers to the average leverage index of all game events for a given player while WPA/LI refers to context neutral wins; in other words, what the player produced regardless of the situation he entered into. This formula calculates the performance level of a player in crucial situations relative to his standard production. If a player has a .330 batting average in high leverage situations but hits .330 everywhere else, he is not considered clutch. This is not to say he lacks talent, but rather he just produces at a high level in all situations and isn’t necessarily stepping his game up in crucial plate appearances.

The Kosuke example made me wonder which other players were greatly benefiting from a big play. Looking at the top eight clutch scores before the stats updated last night, I tracked the biggest individual play for each of the eight and compared the clutch score of that singular play to the net sum of their other plays. This way we can see which player’s clutch labels are truly derived from one big play as opposed to those who have been a bit more consistent in stepping up. Here are the eight, with their overall clutch score and the three required components of their biggest play – note that the pLI refers to the season average, not the game average:

Pat Burrell (1.33): 0.899 WPA, 3.56 LI, 1.09 pLI
Melvin Mora (1.30): 0.418 WPA, 5.14 LI, 1.04 pLI
Freddy Sanchez (1.27): 0.363 WPA, 4.65 LI, 1.03 pLI
Skip Schumaker (0.93): 0.287 WPA, 4.29 LI, 1.04 pLI
Jeremy Hermida (0.86): 0.294 WPA, 2.61 LI, 0.94 pLI
Bobby Abreu (0.84): 0.512 WPA, 5.44 LI, 0.92 pLI
Manny Ramirez (0.81): 0.482 WPA, 2.38 LI, 0.95 pLI
Joe Mauer (0.80): 0.364 WPA, 4.35 LI, 1.07 pLI

With these figures, here is the breakdown of the big play clutch vs. the clutch in all other plate appearances:

Pat Burrell: 0.57 big play, 0.76 other
Melvin Mora: 0.32 big play, 0.98 other
Freddy Sanchez: 0.27 big play, 1.00 other
Skip Schumaker: 0.21 big play, 0.72 other
Jeremy Hermida: 0.20 big play, 0.66 other
Bobby Abreu: 0.46 big play, 0.38 other
Manny Ramirez: 0.30 big play, 0.51 other
Joe Mauer: 0.26 big play, 0.54 other

Pat Burrell had the most clutch “big play” when he hit a walkoff two-run home run against the Giants on May 2nd. However, according to these numbers, Abreu actually benefited the most from his play; he is the only one whose big play exceeded the net sum of all other clutch plays.

On the flipside, Freddy Sanchez and Melvin Mora have been very consistent in raising their performance level in high leverage situations. When talking about a player’s clutchiness, though, it really only takes one or two big plays to cement the label. We could remove the one big play and look at all other performances but since one play can change a fan’s perception of clutchiness that just would not be fair; regardless of whether or not the clutch benefits from a huge play or a group of smaller plays added together, the bottom line is that these players have helped their team win games by stepping up in crucial situations.

Coming into the 2008 season the National League East had been reduced to a three-team race between the Braves, Mets, and Phillies. Nobody pegged the Marlins as potential contenders even with Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis; their subsequent trade to the Tigers did nothing to help the cause.

Looking at the standings right now might require a double take because the three pre-season contenders currently rank 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the division. The first place team? Well, none other than the pesky fish from Florida, who currently sport a 15-10 record and a 1.5 game lead over the Mets and Phillies. This isn’t likely to continue but they have had a good first month and deserve some recognition. One of the major reasons for their early success is the stellar production from leftfielder Josh Willingham. He will not make headlines as a fantasy or statistical superstud, like teammate Hanley Ramirez, but Willingham has quietly become a very solid hitter.

His 2006 and 2007 seasons were pretty consistent, evidenced by the following breakdowns:

• 2006: 142 GP, .277/.356/.496, 56 XBH, 109 K, 21.7 K%, 0.50 BB/K
• 2007: 144 GP, .265/.364/.463, 57 XBH, 122 K, 23.4 K%, 0.54 BB/K

Though we are still suffering from some small sample size issues, Willingham has seemingly increased his production levels relative to the previous two seasons. In fact, his RC/27 has vastly increased:

I would love to say that Willingham will keep this up, as I draft him for my fantasy team every year, but his balls-in-play rates just do not seem to point in that direction. Now, this is not to say he will not have a productive year, but rather that his production is very likely to level off in the coming weeks or months. Here is a look at his GB/FB/LD rates:

As you can see, his percentage of grounders has increased upwards of ten percent. Due to this increase, his BABIP currently rest at .348, much higher than the .310 and .308 posted in the last two seasons. Another so called red flag is the fact that his HR/FB % has increased from 12% to 23%; while his percentage of flyballs has decreased by about ten percent he is hitting a little over ten percent more of them out of the ballpark.

He could defy the odds and put up an incredible season but it would come with the potential stigma of having high luck-based indicators, IE, a fluke. His numbers should improve from those posted last year but not along the lines of what would occur should we extrapolate his current statistics over the rest of the season.