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The Phillies entered the season relying heavily on the pitching staff after several seasons of scoring runs at will. Jayson Werth signed with the Nationals and Chase Utley was thought to be sidelined for an undetermined amount of time. The downgrade from Werth to some combination of Ben Francisco, Domonic Brown, and John Mayberry was substantial. Even more significant was the dropoff in performance from Utley to the three-headed monster of Wilson Valdez, Pete Orr, and Michael Martinez.

The outfield situation remains in flux, especially with the recent injury to Shane Victorino, but the second base situation is now solved as the Phillies welcome Utley back tonight.

The Phillies are averaging 3.83 runs per game, worse than all National League teams aside from the Pirates, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers. However, the pitching staff has been so effective that the Phillies have the best record in the league at 28-18.

The idea was always that, if the team could hold down the fort until a healthy Utley returned, his supplanting of the replacement level second base triumvirate early enough in the season would help cement their bid as a serious contender.

Though it has gotten to the point that a nifty fantasy strategy might involve adding whoever faces their lineup, the aforementioned sentiment remains true: replacing Valdez, Orr, and Martinez with Utley makes a big difference. Utley’s return invites two questions:

1) What can the Phillies expect from him over the rest of the season?
2) Is his return enough to stave off the Marlins and Braves?

Read the rest of this entry »

Anticipating that their star second baseman Chase Utley would miss significant time this year while recovering from offseason hip surgery, the Phillies issued several spring training invitations to middle infielders in the hope that one could potentially fill the void. Eric Bruntlett already held down a spot on the roster, but the Phillies were willing to take a look at prospect Jason Donald as well as the formerly employed triumvirate of Miguel Cairo, Marcus Giles, and Pablo Ozuna.

The hopes of everyone mentioned above not named Bruntlett were essentially dashed when the robotic Utley not so shockingly expedited his rehab to the point that he should be ready for opening day. Donald has already been demoted to AAA, and with both Utley and Rollins not going anywhere for some time, the Phillies should really be looking to unload the youngster. The futures of Giles and Ozuna are less clear but it is already apparent that they are not making the big league team. Miguel Cairo, however, will be a Philadelphia Phillies player come opening day, a fact that is eliciting negative responses from many that don’t seem to hold a ton of water.

I can more than respect the distaste over the idea that Cairo is taking the spot of Donald, who looked good this past month. I can also understand that he might not serve as much of a purpose with Bruntlett already garnering utilityman status. And even further, I can comprehend why some fans would be weary of his earning a spot on the team based on spring training numbers, but all of this supposed hatred for Cairo seems to be stemming from the wrong reasons.

The Phillies are not giving him a uniform to be an everyday starter, or even a platoon partner with another starting player. Cairo will likely serve as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement who will make occasional starts and help fill-in when the inevitable injury bug rears its ugly head. He is not a good hitter by any stretch of the imagination but he has proven himself more than capable on the basepaths and has played league average or better defense at just about every non-catcher position over the past few seasons.

Plus, it isn’t as if the Phillies signed him to a contract reminiscent of Geoff Jenkins‘ deal, which looks very bad given the monetary magnitude as well as the fact that the Phillies have a very solid starting outfield and also have to reserve some plate appearances for Matt Stairs. And if they decide to give John Mayberry Jr. a shot, Jenkins and his $8-9 mil are the odd man out.

This is not the case for Cairo, who signed a minor league deal without the guarantee of a roster spot. This move seems to be motivated moreso by the contractual stipulation that Cairo can opt to seek employment elsewhere should he not make the Phillies opening day roster, in conjunction with Jason Donald still having options. There is such low risk involved with giving Cairo this spot; if he stinks in the very limited duty, cut him and bring up Donald. If he thrives or stays true to expectations, he will likely have the chance to do more good than harm. Plus, he’s a former Mariner, so the Phillies are required to give him a roster spot.

Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr has had his hands full this offseason. Not a ton has been done with regards to the free agent market, but seemingly half the team was eligible for arbitration this year and only one player, Ryan Howard, may actually go to court. Amaro managed to settle with the likes of Joe Blanton, Shane Victorino, Chad Durbin, Eric Bruntlett, and Clay Condrey. He also signed Greg Dobbs, Cole Hamels, and Ryan Madson to contract extensions.

The most recent player to sign such an extension was Jayson Werth, a rightfielder who soared under the radar to produce a +4.7 win season in 2008.

Now, some of Werth’s worth may have been inflated due to facing predominantly lefthanded pitching to start the season. He feasts on lefties (as evidenced by his MLB-leading 16 HR against southpaws) and didn’t have to face righties while platooning with Geoff Jenkins. Had he faced righties more often, his value may have diminished a bit. No matter how you slice it, though, he was one of the most valuable Phillies last season, combining 20 HR/20 SB offense with a +16 UZR rating.

The 2-yr deal will pay Werth $10 mil. He will earn $3 mil in 2009, a third of which comes as a signing bonus. The remaining $7 mil will become his salary in 2010. With the signing, both sides were able to avoid arbitration, where their figures differed by only $1 mil — $4 mil from Werth, $3 mil from the team. The deal buys out his final arbitration year as well as his first free agent season.

Next season, Werth projects to about +15 runs with the bat and +8 in the field. He will be the full-time starter meaning his adjustments for value above replacement and position will rise. Assuming 140 GP and 600 PA, Werth projects to +3.6 wins. At fair market value, that is $16.2 mil. Since he was eligible for arbitration, however, the 40/60/80 modifier comes into play. Even if we took 20% of his fair market value, $3.2 mil, the Phillies still walk away as big winners here.

At around +3.2 wins in 2010, assuming a slight decline, Werth’s fair market value would command around $15 mil. The Phillies have a player likely to produce close to +7 wins and $31 mil for one-third of the price.

Ryan Howard of the Philadelpia Phillies is no stranger to the arbitration process. After a Rookie of the Year 2005 season, an MVP Award in 2006, and a 2007 campaign in which he smacked 47 HR with a wOBA of .396, Howard set an arbitration record by jumping from $900K to $10 mil. This past season, his numbers declined quite a bit, but the numbers that tend to overrate players, such as HR and RBI, tell a different story. Despite his impressive output of 48 HR and 146 RBI, Howard saw his wOBA fall to .366 and his OPS drop almost 100 points to .881.

He played in all 162 games, amassing exactly 700 PA in the process. Combine the adjustments accompanying those playing time indicators with average first base defense and solid-albeit-declining offense and Howard was worth +3.1 wins in 2008. Even in a down year relative to his standards, the burly slugger proved to be over a full win above average. At fair market value, he would have earned $14 mil… which is an interesting number given that the Phillies submitted the same figure as their bid for his 2009 contract.

Howard disagrees, as he and his representatives submitted for $18 mil. The $4 mil difference between player and team is the largest gap of any arbitration-eligible player, and the only gap above $2 mil. Does Howard have a case here? Before even delving into the calculations, it seems the answer is yes, given that his offense will likely regress closer to the 2007 levels and his playing time isn’t going to diminish.

The three projection systems offered on our site see Howard capable of a wOBA between .380 and .410. Let’s settle on .395, essentially a midpoint. At that mark, Howard would produce +37 runs above average with the bat. Add in +22 runs for his 680 or so PA and -12.5 runs for a full season at 1B, and prior to defense, Howard is worth +46.5 runs. His defense has been right around the average mark according to both UZR and Dewan, though he certainly does not look average. However, even with a pessimistic -5 run defensive projection, Howard still projects to be worth +4.2 wins.

At $4.5 mil/win, Howard’s +4.2 wins commands a fair market value of $18.9 mil. He requested $18 mil. The Phillies submitted a figure that seemingly suggests Howard’s offense will not regress, and all other evaluative aspects held constant, perhaps even worsen. The likelihood of that occurring is very low unless he has some injury the public does not know about.

He broke the bank last year around this time, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him repeat the feat. He more than earned the $10 mil last season despite largely being overrated. We tend to forget that overrated does not necessarily mean “bad.” Howard had a down year compared to what he had shown himself capable of, but he was by no means a scrub. If his projections come to fruition and he produces +4.2 wins, even his submitted figure would not properly value his contributions.

Of course, we have been using a 40/60/80 modifier here for players eligible for arbitration, meaning Howard would make 80% of his FMV right now. 80% of $18.9 mil = $15.1 mil. Howard is only entering his second arbitration year, so he really should be closer to 60%, but I do not think he is currently on the 40/60/80 track, completely. Suffice it to say, 80% simply is more realistic.

It’s closer to the Phillies side of things but in between both figures. The ideal situation would see the two sides settle, but I cannot see that happening.

I’m not sure exactly how the arbitration judges think, but if you couple the idea that his offense will regress and improve to the tune of ~+4 wins, and that he finished second in MVP voting (hey, maybe that matters to them), this could easily tilt in Howard’s favor again.

Fresh off of a World Series win, the Philadelphia Phillies headed into the offseason with a rather lengthy list of arbitration-eligible players. Eric Bruntlett and Clay Condrey quickly re-signed. Greg Dobbs soon followed suit. And Cole Hamels, as Matthew noted last night, signed a 3-yr deal to avoid arbitration that greatly benefits the team. Joining Hamels on the 3-yr extension express is reliever Ryan Madson, which is actually somewhat surprising.

See, Ryan is represented by Scott Boras, who claimed that the Madson-Lidge tandem was akin to the Rivera-Wetteland tandem of the old Yankees regime. Madson = Rivera? A stretch in every sense of the word, yes, but it gave us a glimpse of how the superagent values his client. Based on the way Boras presented Madson, it seemed almost guaranteed that the free agent market would be tested following the 2009 season.

Now, after reportedly turning down a 3-yr/$12 mil deal, Madson signed for a 3-yr/$12 mil + incentives deal. The terms of the incentives are not yet known but the Phillies managed to lock up their setup man for one more arbitration year as well as two free agent years.

Last season, Madson logged 82.2 innings with a 3.33 FIP and 3.05 ERA. The ERA actually matched his output in 2007, when he missed time down the stretch due to injuries. All told, he produced +13.1 value runs, good for +1.3 wins. At fair market value, Madson was worth $6 mil, despite earning $1.4 mil. Madson in 2008 was largely a tale of two pitchers, however.

From March 31-August 1, Madson pitched in 49 games and 56.1 innings of 3.51 ERA/3.88 FIP baseball. The numbers were not extravagant nor were they detrimental to the success of the team. He looked solid, but not fantastic. Something clicked after that, because from that day on, Madson pitched 26.1 innings with a 2.05 ERA, 2.09 FIP, and 8.33 K/BB ratio. His fastball velocity rose as well, which was extremely noticeable in the World Series. The guy went from a 92-93 mph fastball to routinely throwing 97 mph with the greatest of ease.

Next season, Madson projects to pitch around 78 IP with a 3.75 FIP, 3.85 ERA, and 2.80 K/BB. His average leverage index will also rise given the nature of setting up games. A win value in the 1.2-1.5 range seems pretty likely. If his actual value falls within that range, his fair market value would be between $4 and $6.75 mil. Let’s say that he will be worth 1.4 wins in 2009, and will lose 0.3 wins of effectiveness each year of this deal. Under those circumstances, with a bit of inflation factored in, though not 10%, Madson would produce 3.3 wins fot $15.6 mil. Based on these calculations, the Phillies seemingly signed him to a below-market contract.

It will be very interesting to see if Madson’s new workout/warmup regimen will allow him to sustain 95+ mph fastballs all year long, but he instilled plenty of confidence in Phillies fans down the stretch. I may have ragged on Ruben Amaro, Jr for some odd moves early in this off-season, but locking up Hamels and Madson are two key steps.

Since 2006, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have held fort atop the NL East. The Mets ended the Braves streak of 138 consecutive division titles three seasons ago, coming within one game of reaching the World Series. The following season, both the Mets and Phillies battled down to the wire, with the Phils winning the division on the final day of the season. Last season, both teams again battled into September, with the Phillies clinching the division right before the season ended. This time, they went on and actually won the World Series.

The offseason has proved to be very active for both Omar Minaya and Ruben Amaro, Jr, even though Minaya’s transactions have meant more to his team.

With the vast majority of last season’s squad returning, Amaro’s moves have primarily come in the form of little pieces here and there. He brought in Ronnie Paulino from the Pirates to challenge Chris Coste for the backup catcher spot. Scott Eyre and Jamie Moyer both re-signed. Chan Ho Park joined the team to either take on a similar role to that of Chad Durbin last season and/or battle for the fifth rotation spot. And Raul Ibanez, in a much-maligned deal by many, replaced Pat Burrell in left-field.

Minaya acquired Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, and Sean Green to sure up a bullpen that ultimately cost the Mets the division last season. The lineup will return, in tact, and Derek Lowe may even be added to the rotation. Minaya has made a 3-yr/$36 mil offer to Lowe, though I would bet my bottom dollar that Lowe eventually signs for closer to 3-yr/$45 mil.

How do these teams stack up in 2009? Even though the Marlins are young and offensively talented, and the Braves acquired a solid pitcher in Javier Vazquez, the Phillies and Mets are still the top two teams in the division. Does one have a projected advantage over the other? Let’s break the analysis down into different facets of each team. And, for the record, the projections I arrived at were derived from the results of several different systems, weighted and merged, not just one system.

LINEUP
Both the Phillies and Mets have very potent offensive lineups. Both are also quite solid defensively. Chase Utley, the best player on the Phillies, had surgery following the World Series and may or may not be available for opening day. In calculating these projections, I placed Utley at around 130 games and 520 PA. His offensive and defensive contributions are also lessened due to the likelihood that he will miss some time.

The Phillies starting lineup, not in Charlie Manuel’s exact order, will feature the following players: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz, Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Carlos Ruiz. As poor as Howard looks with the glove sometimes, he has actually been eerily close to average over the last few seasons, and projects to just barely below average next season. If he is considered to be a league average first baseman with the glove, then only Raul Ibanez projects negatively on defense for the defending champions.

Likewise, the Mets only project to feature one negative defender: Carlos Delgado. Luis Castillo could prove to be a poor defender with his injury history, but I currently have both he and Daniel Murphy as league average defenders. The remaining starters—Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Church, and Brian Schneider—all project positively on the defensive front.

All told, the Phillies project to +80 runs offensively in their lineup and +40 runs defensively. After adjustments to value production above replacement level as well as for their positions, the lineup comes out at +26.0 WAR. The Mets offense projects to +93 runs while their defense clocks in at +19 runs. After the same adjustments are taken into account, their lineup proves to be worth +26.1 WAR. Eerily similar.

STARTING ROTATIONS
Yesterday we examined the Mets rotation under a few different scenarios regarding whether or not they sign Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, or Tim Redding. With an actual contract being presented to Lowe, and the likelihood that he will eventually sign, the Mets rotation should feature Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Derek Lowe, and Jonathan Niese. Assuming roughly 150 innings from Niese at a 4.45 FIP, this rotation projects to +14.3 WAR.

The Phillies will bring back Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton. The fifth spot is going to be up for grabs between J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, Chan Ho Park, and (gasp) Adam Eaton. As I mentioned yesterday, Happ is my pick to win the spot, which would place the Phillies rotation at +11.8 WAR. The teams may be virtually even in the starting lineup department, but the Mets have a +2.5 win advantage in the rotation.

BULLPEN
The Phillies re-signed Scott Eyre and brought in Chan Ho Park, leaving the rest of the relief corps in tact. Players like Gary Majewski and Dave Borkowski were invited to Spring Training, but would only take the spot of Clay Condrey if either were to make the team. Brad Lidge returns as the closer, with Ryan Madson setting him up. After these two, the Phillies will rely on J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, Eyre, Park, and Condrey. This bullpen projects to be worth +3.4 wins next season.

The Mets replaced Billy Wagner with Francisco Rodriguez; Aaron Heilman with J.J. Putz; and added a solid piece in Sean Green. These three will join the likes of Pedro Feliciano, Duaner Sanchez, Brian Stokes, and Bob Parnell to form a much more formidable bullpen. This relief corps looks like it could be worth +3.6 wins next season. Though this advantage over the Phillies is slight, the ‘pen was a major achilles heel for the Mets last season.

BENCH
Benches are tough to project, again given the small samples of playing time as well as the uncertainty surrounding who will fill certain spots. Assuming Paulino beats out Coste for the backup job, the Phillies will feature some combination of: Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins, Eric Bruntlett, Ronnie Paulino, and Jason Donald. Donald may be the odd one out of this group. Dobbs is the best pinch-hitter in baseball but is still likely worth under one win next season. Without Donald, these five project to +1.5 WAR.

The Mets will have Fernando Tatis and Jeremy Reed on their bench, as well as Ramon Castro. After that, it does not seem that any backup infielders are on the roster, and the only other bench players that seem like viable candidates to make the team are Angel Pagan and Nicholas Evans. Their bench could range anywhere from +0.6 to +1.2 wins. We can call it +0.9 for now, though this will need to be updated before the season starts. The Phillies have over a half-win advantage here, but this is the only area where they come out on top.

TOTALS
For the Phillies, we are looking at +26 wins from the lineup, +11.8 from the rotation, +3.4 from the bullpen, and +1.5 from the bench. This adds up to +42.7 wins. Given that a team chock-full of replacement players would win 47-48 games, the Phillies are projected to win 89-90 games in 2009.

The Mets will get +26.1 wins from the lineup, +14.3 from the rotation featuring Lowe and the aforementioned Niese projection, +3.6 out of the ‘pen, and +0.9 from the bench. This adds up to +44.9 wins, which we will round up to +45 wins. Added to the replacement wins total, the Mets are projected to win 91-92 games next season.

Once again, the teams are extremely close, and 2009 should treat fans to another stellar battle between the Mets and Phillies.

For those unaware, Fangraphs unveiled a new section on the player pages today. The section takes all of the dollar valuation components we have manually calculated, harnesses the stats, and outputs wins above replacement level as well as the player’s fair market value salary based on his production.

The Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series in 2008, their first since 1980. Much of the attention garnered by the team went in the direction of superstars Chase Utley and Cole Hamels, former MVP winners Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, and the 41-41 closer Brad Lidge. While all five of these players deserved some form of recognition for the success of the team, a few other players contributed a good amount. These players made their contributions under the radar, though, and prior to the post-season were not even household names. Guys like Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino fit this bill.

Werth was a former first-round draft pick of the Orioles in 1997, but did not truly find a home until 2007. After health problems while playing for the Blue Jays and Dodgers limited his availability and production, the LA bunch cut ties with Werth following the 2006 campaign, one that he completely missed due to injuries. Pat Gillick, who drafted Werth while helming the Orioles, quickly brought him to the Phillies.

Still under control, Werth signed a 1-yr deal worth $850,000. With the going rate of $4.1 mil/win in 2007, Gillick’s deal valued Werth as a +2 run, +0.2 win player. In 304 plate appearances that year, Werth put together an impressive .298/.404/.459 line, good for a .385 wOBA. His production benefited from a regression-bound .391 BABIP, but Werth’s offense resulted in +11.7 runs above average.

Defensively, he proved stellar as well, with a UZR rating of +11.5 runs. Though he failed to qualify for the overall leaderboards, this defensive rating ranked fifth in the senior circuit amongst anyone with 550+ innings played in the entire outfield. All told, after adjustments are taken into account, Werth’s worth was +2.8 wins. If he had signed a contract that valued his production appropriately, the terms would be 1-yr/$11.6 mil.

In 2008, the BABIP plummeted to .327, resulting in a still productive but different slash line of .273/.363/.498. Werth lost some ability to reach base, but made up for it with an increase in power. Because of the increased output elsewhere, his wOBA remained virtually the same, at .382. The biggest difference, however, came in the form of playing time. Werth partook in 134 games last season, amassing 482 PA in the process.

His offensive production almost doubled to +21.6 runs above average. Werth also produced another fantastic season with the glove, putting together a UZR rating of +15.8 runs in the outfield. Among outfielders with at least 950 innings played, this ranks fifth in the entire sport, and second in the senior circuit to just Randy Winn.

In 2008, Jayson Werth became a +4.9 win player. 4.9 wins! Mark Teixeira’s projection for next season calls for something like +5.1 wins. Werth had re-signed for a 1-yr/$1.7 mil contract that doubled his previous season’s salary, but ended up being worth much more money than that. If he signed for his fair market value, the deal would have been closer to $22 mil.

Moving forward, his 2009 projections call for a .375 wOBA, +20 offensive runs, +12 defensive runs, and after adjustments, +43 value runs. This converts to approximately +4.15 wins, and $20.8 mil.

Werth is one of many arbitration-eligible members of the Phillies, and will likely see his salary bumped to around $4 mil for the 2009 season. Assuming this comes to fruition, he will have earned $6.55 mil from the Phillies from 2007-09, while producing +11.85 wins above replacement level. If his deserved salaries are added, we get a figure of $54.4 mil.

It is easy to lampoon GMs for dishing out ridiculous deals to players like Adam Eaton, but they deserve equal praise for acquiring players as productive as Werth. Players who, despite being under control, are able to be had for about nine times less than their fair market value.

One of the big decisions for first-year GM Ruben Amaro, Jr, is whether or not he will retain Pat Burrell. Burrell is a three true outcomes hitter who plays poor defense at a corner outfield position. There are plenty of those on the market this season, driving down the price. In many other off-seasons, players like Burrell and Adam Dunn would likely command $14 mil or so, while now it appears more likely that they will earn something in the $10-11 mil range. Regardless of the exactitudes, Burrell’s love for the city and the market surplus of like-players means he could be had for a lesser fee.

His defense stinks, though, and he would be better-suited to serve as a DH for an AL team. Though Burrell has been one of my favorite players for years, if he were to sign elsewhere and the Phillies could replace him, perhaps with a slightly less productive hitter but more solid defender, this Phightins phan would not be particularly upset. I would, however, be upset if Amaro let Burrell go elsewhere and signed one of the other good-hitting, no-defense corner outfielders to replace him.

According to Jayson Stark, this may come to fruition, as the defending champs and Raul Ibanez seemingly have strong mutual interest. As Peter Griffin would say, this really grinds my gears!

Before even looking at the numbers, let it be known that Burrell is 32 and Ibanez is 37. Players like these two do not age particularly well, and yet the Phillies seem more willing to give a multi-year deal to someone five years older than their “current” left-fielder. I’m sure Ibanez is a standup guy and a positive influence in the clubhouse, but it isn’t as if Burrell is Sidney Ponson/Milton Bradley attitude-wise. For this to even make sense, Ibanez would have to project much better offensively, and at least a little better defensively.

Burrell’s 2009 Marcel wOBA is .369 to the .344 of Ibanez. This translates to +19 runs offensively for Burrell and just +6 for Ibanez. Both are likely to play the whole season, so we dock 7.5 runs for an adjustment. Meanwhile, Burrell would get +17 runs to adjust to value above replacement while Ibanez would get +18 runs. Now, we move onto defense. Both of these guys have been either the worst, or among the worst, defensive left-fielders over the past two seasons.

A rough UZR projection has them both at around -12 or -13 runs defensively for 2009. If we consider them both to be -12, then Burrell is, all told, +16.5 runs above replacement. Ibanez… is +5.5 runs. Translated to wins, we’re talking about +1.65 wins vs. +0.55 wins.

I have nothing against Ruben Amaro, Jr. Heck, I played baseball with his nephew and his brother even donated bases and balls to a league my father and I used to run. He will have to forgive me, though, for failing to understand why he would pursue a player worth over a full win less and who is five years older than a player he could likely easily re-sign. If you do not want Burrell back, fine, but do not replace him with someone less productive than he and much older in baseball terms.

Even if this deal were just for one season, I still would not like it, because it isn’t as if the Phillies have a top-tiered prospect waiting in the wings to take over the position. If you do not plan on re-signing Burrell, it makes no sense to sign someone with similar skills that is less productive, older, and almost as, if not equally, costly.

The title to this post is one of the most common sayings amongst baseball fans. It also happens to be the saying that drives me the zaniest, makes me want to bang pots and pans on my head, or tie someone to a chair and force them to watch, on a continuous loop, the film You Got Served. Albert Pujols recently won his second MVP award. The BBWAA got it right, thankfully, but Pujols winning the vote by a final tally of 369-308 was much too close for my liking, regardless of who finished second. Add in that the second place finisher was Ryan Howard of the Phillies and this is when I begin to lose my cool. Keep in mind while reading this article that I am a devout Phillies fan, and that I am not criticizing the writer’s association for a 369-308 final tally, but rather criticizing everyone across the country who felt that Howard truly should have sniffed the MVP award.

To start things off, why did anyone even think Howard deserved the award, or felt he had a good shot of winning, in the first place? He hit 48 home runs and knocked in 146 runners, very gaudy power numbers. This is the first reason. The only other reason conjured up involves… ugh… Howard “hitting when it counted.” Yes, in September, when the Phillies were fighting to get into the playoffs, Howard did more than just endorse Subway: he hit .352/.422/.852, a 1.274 OPS, with 11 home runs. His September performance carried the team into the post-season, where they eventually won the World Series. Because his performance earned the team a playoff berth, he must be highly considered for the award, right? Right?

Is it just me, or does the entire season count? I mean, I know I’m not a rocket scientist (another cliche favorite of mine), but I do know that statistics and performances technically count for the entire duration of the 162-game season. Going off of this, Howard only hit when it counted some of the time, because, for half of the season, he was average or below average. In April, he hit .172/.297/.343, with five home runs. In June, .234/.287/.439, and in August, .213/.328/.463. Even if you ignore the batting average aspect of the slash line and focus on the OBP/SLG, those are not solid months. Those are Ronnie Belliard months. Did anyone stop to think that if Howard had performed even on par with slightly above average offensive players in those three months, that he wouldn’t have needed to carry the Phillies in September?

I mean, sure, we cannot go back and change the course of history like in that Ashton Kutcher movie, but I would venture a guess that if Howard posted even an OPS of .830 in those months, that the Phillies would have been in a great situation entering September with regards to the playoffs. Instead, he was essentially reverse-anchored, and his entire season was evaluated with the final month in mind. The opposite happened to Chase Utley, who went crazy in April/May, and tailed off the rest of the season, still posting great numbers, but built on a performance far from fresh in the minds of fans and voters. Nobody remembers movies or performances from January and February when it comes time to the Academy Awards, and that is pretty much exactly what happened with Utley. Back to Howard, though, who by no means deserved to win the award, or even finish second.

Howard’s WPA/LI this season was 2.93, pretty good, but by no means great. On his own team, here are some other players and their context-neutral win contributions: Chase Utley (3.63), Cole Hamels (2.83), Pat Burrell (2.77), Jayson Werth (2.70). Factor in Brad Lidge’s 5.37 WPA as a closer, and that gives us five other players on the Phillies that were either better than Howard in terms of overall production, or very close to him. Suffice it to say, strong cases were not made for Hamels, Burrell, Utley, or Werth.

His 2.93 WPA/LI ranked 16th in the senior circuit, but where did he rank in some other categories? His home run and RBI totals topped all others in the whole sport, but outside of that, he honestly did not have an impressive season. His OBP ranked 49th, and despite the 48 HR, his SLG finished sixth best. Put together, this slotted him 14th in the OPS department. Howard’s WPA ranked 23rd, and in the fielding department, he finished 12th at the position. For those curious, Pujols ranked either first, second, or third in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, WPA, and WPA/LI, as well as fourth in home runs and ninth in RBIs.

The most interesting statistic I saw involving Howard’s candidacy was this: in 700 PAs, Howard posted a 2.93 WPA/LI, making him about three wins above an average player offensively. In just 229 PAs with the Dodgers, Manny Ramirez posted a 3.10 WPA/LI. And keep in mind that WPA/LI is a counting stat, just like home runs.

Ryan Howard is an important part of the Phillies, and his September performance did carry them into the playoffs; however, strong April numbers would have counted just as much, and likely would have prevented September from meaning as much as it did to the team. For someone to “hit when it counts,” that player should be consistently great all year long, since the entire season counts. I can understand his candidacy in a year when there really isn’t a clear-cut winner for the award, but Pujols was so far ahead of everyone else that it is borderline absurd for certain writers or fans to froth at the mouth over Howard’s exclusion from several ballots. As a fan of his team, I can vouch that without his production, the Phillies wouldn’t have been nearly as good, but the same can be said, if not moreso, for Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge, Pat Burrell, and Jayson Werth.

No matter how you look at it, unless you are advocating giving the MVP award to someone with only one amazing month, Howard did not deserve the award, should not have finished second, and definitely should not have finished that far ahead of Utley.

Well, it’s official: my Phillies phever has officially worn off, and now it’s back to business as usual, worrying about what they will do in the off-season. Newly appointed GM Ruben Amaro wasted no time signing lefty reliever Scott Eyre, and it is believed that the Phillies will also re-sign Jamie Moyer, even if the deal lasts two years. Otherwise, just about everyone not currently locked down to a long-term deal is eligible for arbitration. Most, if not all, of these players—Greg Dobbs, Joe Blanton, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Chad Durbin, Shane Victorino, Ryan Madson, and Jayson Werth—are going to win their case, meaning raises will be due across the board.

This will make it harder for Amaro to go out and sign an impact player, though most of the positions are already set in stone, with the bulk of their core returning. The only true question mark at this point involves the outfield. Victorino and Werth will be back, and together form a tandem of all-around, very productive players, that many people still don’t know about. Pat Burrell’s spot is another story.

Burrell has mentioned numerous times that he would love to return, but he is currently seeking a three-year deal. Speculation surfaced that Amaro would offer two years, so if he ups the deal to a third year, it is very likely that Burrell returns. With free agent starting tomorrow, though, my personal feeling is that Pat the Bat will be offered much more money elsewhere, an opportunity cost too great for him to offer a hometown discount and return.

The trio of Burrell, Victorino, and Werth formed one of the top, if not the top, offensive outfields in 2008, combining for a WPA/LI of just under seven wins above average. Defensively, Victorino was about two wins above average with a positional adjustment; Werth was about a half of a win above average; and Burrell was just under two and a half wins below average. All told, factoring in offense and defense, the Phillies outfield was close to seven wins above average this past season.

There were rumors that the Phillies would send a package headlined by Victorino to the Rockies for Matt Holliday, but Ken Mandel of MLB.com recently reported that the two clubs were never realistically close to making a deal. If they opt to resign Burrell, and are able to make a deal in the same range as other suitors, here are the projections for 2009:

Pat Burrell:     .253/.377/.490, 32 HR, 29 2B
Jayson Werth:    .279/.369/.484, 25 HR, 25 2B, 21 SB
Shane Victorino: .286/.345/.428, 13 HR, 24 2B, 27 SB

If Burrell signs elsewhere, Amaro has mentioned that he would likely platoon the left-handed combo of Geoff Jenkins, Matt Stairs, and Greg Dobbs with a right-handed bat signed from the free agent market. The righty bats that have been linked to the Phillies are Kevin Mench, Rocco Baldelli, Jerry Hairston, and most recently, albeit from a trade and not free agency, Jermaine Dye. Below are the projections for these players:

Geoff Jenkins:  .257/.330/.441, 15 HR, 22 2B
Kevin Mench:    .264/.322/.430,  7 HR, 16 2B
Rocco Baldelli: .279/.330/.465, 12 HR, 18 2B
Jerry Hairston: .264/.333/.391,  4 HR, 14 2B
Jermaine Dye:   .270/.334/.491, 31 HR, 33 2B
Matt Stairs:    .242/.341/.409, 12 HR, 17 2B 
Greg Dobbs:     .284/.329/.432,  8 HR, 16 2B

Other than Dye, who is a very significant power threat, all of these players have very similar projections for next season. Defensively, believe it or not, but Jenkins was +6 in 2006, and +18 as the second best left-fielder in 2007, before being right around average in his limited rightfield role in 2008. He might not be worth two wins above average defensively, but he is certainly more defensively sound than Burrell. Mench was +5 in rightfield in 2007, and +2 in limited duty this season. Baldelli doesn’t have a large enough sample size to base defensive evaluations on, but he should be no worse than average, which is about the same for Hairston.

Dye has posted the following numbers: -14, -41, -17. He has ranged from around 1.5-2 wins below average defensively, which comes pretty close to cancelling out the offensive production. At this stage in his career, Stairs is nothing more than an offensive threat, and while a larger role for Dobbs is likely merited, his arm is suspect and he is not a natural outfielder.

Dye is owed 11.5 million in 2009, and has a club option for 2010 worth 12 million. Oddly enough, that 23.5 million is about the same amount Amaro has hinted he would be offering to Burrell. This is all assuming Dye is even being dangled, which he very well may not be. If they lose Burrell to free agency, and opt to go with a Jenkins/Mench, Jenkins/Baldelli, or Jenkins/Hairston platoon, they are going to lose some offensive production, but improve defensively. With both Utley and Howard entrenched in the lineup, a big righty power bat sure would be nice, but Jenkins is due to perform better than he did in 2008, and a nice righty platoon partner wouldn’t be as dramatic a dropoff in total production (both offensively and defensively) as many would think.