Archive for Pittsburgh Pirates

There was something oddly fitting about both a statue of Bud Selig being unveiled and the final set of leaked MLB financial documents becoming public on Tuesday. Selig has said on more than one occasion that we’re witnessing the “Golden Era” of baseball, citing the economic windfall that has come to the league over the last decade. Revenue-sharing, a pride and joy of Selig’s, is at the center of the largest public release of club financial documents – leaked to Deadspin – that include the Pirates, Rays, Mariners, Marlins, Angels, and Rangers (see them all here).

In July of 2000, with the league claiming projected losses of $232 million for the 2001 season, Selig came before Congress with his Blue Ribbon Panel on Baseball Economics report, which at its heart states, “Proper competitive balance will not exist until every well-run club has a regularly recurring reasonable hope of reaching postseason play.” The report then went on to say that, “The limited revenue sharing and payroll tax that were approved as part of MLB’s 1996 Collective Bargaining Agreement with the Major League Baseball Players Association have produced neither the intended moderating of payroll disparities nor improved competitive balance. Some low-revenue clubs, believing the amount of their proceeds from revenue sharing insufficient to enable them to become competitive, used those proceeds to become modestly profitable.”

So, with each Collective Bargaining Agreement since, revenue-sharing has been increased, funneling money from the haves to the have-nots of the league in order to gain competitive balance. In 2009, $433 million in revenue-sharing moved from high-revenue clubs to those in need of assistance.

Along the way, sizable increases in the amount of “central revenue” has found its way into club coffers. The growth of national television money from ESPN, FOX Sports, and TBS which total approx. $660 million a year in rights fees funnel back to each of the 30 clubs. Add in annual dividend checks from MLB Advanced Media of $2 million, revenues from MLB Properties, international broadcast agreements, etc.,  and all clubs, large revenue-making, or not, have found extra money that can be used to help produce a winning product on the diamond.

Still, the field would remain unlevel without revenue-sharing tied to net local revenues, so with the leaked Deadspin docs having three clubs (the Pirates, Marlins, and Rays) that have received considerable amounts via the revenue-sharing system, the documents provide ammunition for clubs such as the Yankees and Red Sox when collective bargaining begins in earnest shortly after the World Series ends.

Parsing the documents, here’s how much revenue-sharing was either received or paid out for a given year:

Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t know what it is about envelopes, but ever since my earliest days, I’ve been pushing the hell out of them.

That trend continues today, as this electronic space serves to preview not just one game, but an entire flipping series.

Is it crazy? Yes. Is it possible? Just wait and see.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh | Friday, May 07 | 7:05 pm ET
St. Louis at Pittsburgh | Saturday, May 08 | 7:05 pm ET
St. Louis at Pittsburgh | Sunday, May 09 | 1:35 pm ET

Starting Pitchers
The careful reader will note that the following pitchers are all Cardinals. This has everything to do with the fact that the Pirate pitching staff is largely underwhelming, and — with regard to the present series, at least — of little concern to the baseballing enthusiast.

The careful reader will also note that the following pitchers are all really flipping good.

Friday: Chris Carpenter
38.0 IP, 9.24 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, .244 BABIP, 49.5% GB, 16.1% HR/FB, 3.32 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.23 (FAN) 3.18 (CHONE) 3.53 (ZiPS)

Saturday: Jaime Garcia
32.0 IP, 6.47 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, .220 BABIP, 65.1% GB, 0.0% HR/FB, 3.72 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 4.69 (CHONE) 4.59 (ZiPS)

Sunday: Adam Wainwright
46.0 IP, 7.04 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, .236 BABIP, 50.0% GB, 2.6% HR/FB, 3.51 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.31 (FAN) 3.40 (CHONE) 3.16 (ZiPS)

On The Pirates Offense
Wednesday night, at an unspecified Portland-area watering hole, I found myself watching the Chicago/Pittsburgh contest at PNC Park. As I tuned in, the game was just entering the bottom of third, and, almost without pause, I was treated to these four at-bats in succession (play-by-play courtesy of FanGraphs play log):

Andy LaRoche doubled to left (Grounder).
Andrew McCutchen doubled to left (Fliner (Liner)). Andy LaRoche scored.
Garrett Jones doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). Andrew McCutchen scored.
Ryan Doumit lined out to third (Liner).

LaRoche’s hit was — technically, I guess — a grounder, but it was well struck and right down the third base line: a no-doubt double, in other words. McCutchen’s double was to left-center, almost netted him a triple, and looked exactly like this. Jones’s double was even more forcefully struck, this time down the right field line (as you can see right here). Finally, though it didn’t get him aboard, Ryan Doumit’s liner to Aramis Ramirez was hit a ton, too.

It was a striking sequence, this. All four Pirates absolutely sqaured up balls against a pitcher who, despite some minor struggles in his return from injury, is generally recognized as one of the National League’s more capable specimens.

Thus it was, under the influence of this hitting display, that I noted the score of last night’s game between Chicago and Pittsburgh: 11-1 in favor of the home team. Randy Wells entered Thursday night’s game ranked eighth out of 115 qualified Major League pitchers with an xFIP of 3.19. After the first inning, he sported a decidedly higher mark.

If you tuned in late, here’s what you missed in the bottom of said inning (most of which you can watch here):

Akinori Iwamura walked.
Andy LaRoche walked. Akinori Iwamura advanced to 2B.
Andrew McCutchen singled to left (Grounder). Akinori Iwamura scored. Andy LaRoche advanced to 2B.
Garrett Jones singled to left (Fliner (Liner)). Andy LaRoche scored. Andrew McCutchen advanced to 2B.
Ryan Doumit doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). Andrew McCutchen scored. Garrett Jones advanced to 3B.
Ryan Church struck out swinging.
Lastings Milledge doubled to left (Fliner (Liner)). Garrett Jones scored. Ryan Doumit scored.
Ronny Cedeno flied out to left (Fly).
Brian Burres grounded out to second (Grounder).

Pittsburgh’s win expectancy at beginning of the inning was 54.8%. By the end of it, that number had climbed to 89.7%. Nor did it drop below 89.0% at any point afterwards, as you can see by this invincible graph:

That’s a pretty good way to win a baseball game.

Very clearly, the Pirates aren’t the top of the offensive heap. In fact, they’re 25th in park-adjusted runs scored compared to average, with a mark of -15.8. But there are some signs of life here that oughtn’t be ignored. Second baseman Aki Iwamura has posted a slash line of only .202/.303/.298 — but with a BABIP (.233) over a hundred points below his career mark. Normalize his batted-ball figure, and he’s wOBA-ing around .365 or so. Garret Jones has also been a victim of batted-ball luck (.250 BABIP), but has managed to post a 119 wRC+, anyway. Andy LaRoche appears to be delivering on his early promise, showing the same plate discipline as always, but with an elevated line-drive rate that could be the product of physical maturity. Ryan Doumit is on pace for another above-average offensive season from the catcher spot. And Andrew McCutchen — well Andrew McCutchen is actually just good.

Even Jeff Clement, Lastings Milledge, Steve Pearce: none of them are world-beaters, but each affordable and all with the pedigree to suggest something like upside.

If I Had My Druthers
• Andy LaRoche would finally climb out of the shadow of his older brother, Arizona first baseman Adam.
• Bobby Crosby would finally climb out of the shadow of his older brother, American comedian Bill.

While the Pirates’ wholesale commitment to rebuilding is commendable, the current major league team is still one of baseball’s worst. However, being in the National League Central means that the Pirates are not only likely to win more than 70 games for the first time since 2004, but also have a good chance to finish out of last place for the first time since 2006 (thank you, Houston Astros!).

As a group, the Pirates’ position players project as around average, partly due to their smart strategy of buying low on former top prospects whose value has dropped for whatever reason. Homegrown center fielder Andrew McCutchen is the only player here that has real star potential; at only 23, he’s a very exciting young player who is good at the plate and in the field. The rest are much less impressive, but outside of the failed-former-prospect competition between Bobby Crosby and Ronny Cedeno at shortstop, there aren’t any gaping holes. Ryan Doumit is a poor defensive catcher, and his bat isn’t all that great, but that’s still good enough to be at least an average catcher. Second baseman Akinori Iwamura is virtually the definition of league average. Andy LaRoche isn’t the stud he looked like he might become as a prospect for the Dodgers, but he has an adequate bat and a decent glove at third base. In left field, former top Nationals/Mets prospect Lastings Milledge projects as about average, and at 25, he still has some upside (whatever that means). 2009 surprise Garrett Jones projects as around average in right, and reserve outfielders Ryan Church, Brandon Jones and Brandon Moss are quality role players. Former Seattle catching prospect Jeff Clement will start at first, and while his bat isn’t anything special there, if he really bombs, the Pirates can always move Jones back to first and put Church, B. Jones or Moss* in the outfield full-time without losing too much.

* I realize that one of B. Jones or Moss may not survive the roster crunch.

If the nonpitchers are average-ish, the pitching as a whole is… not. Paul Maholm is the only pitcher on staff who projects as clearly above average, and could help a lot of teams, but he’s certainly no ace. At 28, he’s probably as good as he’s going to get. Charlie Morton is a bit younger (26) and looks like a capable #3 starter, and 27-year-old lefty Zack Duke is about league average as well. Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen and the rest are back-of-the-rotation fodder who will feature all-too-prominently in 2010, and none of them are particularly young. As Bill Simmons might write, if Octavio Dotel is your best reliever, that means Octavio Dotel is your best reliever. The rest of the group isn’t sub-replacement level, but they’re pretty bad, and things could get ugly once Dotel (better suited to middle relief at this point) is traded.

In a strange way, the terrible bullpen is a sign of the front office’s smarts. Yes, it will be hard to watch, but the 2010 (and 2011) Pirates aren’t anywhere close to contention, and no amount of overspending on, say, Brandon Lyon or Jose Valverde would have changed that. A decent bullpen can be constructed much more quickly than a rotation or a group of position players. As for the former, each pitcher is going to be at least one rotation slot higher than they can handle; as for the latter, they should be a respectable group, with a one star-in-the-making, some former top prospects who could still surprise, and solid role players. A mid-70s win total isn’t out of the question, given the divisional opponents, and while that’s hardly something to get excited about, at least the Pirates haven’t compromised their future (by trading away prospects or signing onerous contracts) to attain sub-mediocrity.

Jack Wilson of the Pittsburgh Pirates has been linked to numerous teams this offseason. It seemed for a bit as though a deal shipping him to the Tigers had been completed. Reports then surfaced disproving this notion and merely adding the Tigers to a list of several interested teams, including the likes of the Dodgers, As, Royals, and Blue Jays. Jack is currently owed $7.25 mil in 2009 with an $8.4 mil club option for the 2010 season.

As of right now, however, Wilson is still a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Jack turns 31 years old in a couple of weeks and a few of his performance indicators seem to be moving in the wrong direction. He has never been an offensive force, with the +6.2 batting runs produced in 2004 the best of his career, but his patience appears to be deteriorating. His O-Swing%, which measures the frequency of swings on pitches outside the strike zone, has risen from 18.5% in 2005 to 26.9% last year.

His rate of contact on these pitches out of the zone has increased as well, from 68% to 80%. Contact on pitches out of the zone does not necessarily refer to balls put in play, so a chance exists that Jack merely may have been fouling off plenty of these pitches. Regardless, the increased swing frequency helped reduce his walk rate from 7% to just 4% in 2008.

Defensively, Wilson looked stellar last season, saving +7.4 runs with the glove in just slightly over half of a season. Injuries prevented him from playing the entire year, and over the last three seasons, he has topped out at 142 games played. The UZR defensive mark in 2008 showed great improvement over the numbers posted in 2006 and 2007.

Back in 2005, Wilson saved +13.3 runs, before declining almost two full wins defensively the next season to -7.5 runs. In 2007, he improved slightly to -2.7 runs, making him a bit below average. Optimistically averaging out his defensive performance, we can call him a +4 run defender in 2009. Since he is not very likely to play an entire season based on the past three years, his positional adjustment at shortstop is +6.0, not +7.5.

The positional adjustment is per 162 games, and Wilson is currently projected to play 130 or so games. Likewise, the +20 runs adjustment given to show value above replacement, not average, would be prorated to +12 runs, since he is not projected to come close to 700 plate appearances. Put together, Wilson is -7.5 runs offensively, +4 runs on defense, +6 runs with an adjustment for position, and +12 over replacement.

This adds up to +14.5 runs, or +1.45 wins. If Wilson were a free agent right now, with a going rate of $5 mil/win, his fair market value would be $7.25 mil. As I mentioned at the start of this post, his current contract will pay him exactly $7.25 mil next season.

Wilson is not a superstar and he certainly is not the missing piece of the puzzle for a team extremely close to contending, but he appears to be an above average defender at the toughest non-catching position to field, and is not atrocious with the bat.

He might not be the definitive answer to a team, but with 130 games and 418 PA, would be productive enough to truly merit his 2009 salary. If he ends up playing 150 games and amassing 600 PA, his value rises to +2.05 WAR, worth over $10 mil in a 1-yr deal. Given that the option for 2010 belongs to the club, and isn’t triggered mutually or by the player, and that the farm systems of potential suitors need not be mortgaged for his services, a team looking for a stopgap would be well-served to acquire Wilson. Unfortunately for Jack and the Pirates, Rafael Furcal and Orlando Cabrera still need “homes” and are higher on wishlists, making it all the more tougher to trade the pesky shortstop.

The Graduate: Brandon Moss | Born: September 1983 | Outfielder

The Pirates did not see much impact from its own system in 2008; the majority of rookies like Brandon Moss and Andy LaRoche came from other organizations in mid-season. Moss was stuck behind a backlog of outfielders in Boston but should get the chance to play everyday in Pittsburgh, although he may be better suited for a fourth outfielder role. He has modest power potential for a corner outfielder (.188 career MLB ISO) and he’s never hit more than 16 homers in a season. He also has a healthy line-drive rate in the Majors of 21.1%. Like most young hitters, Moss could stand to cut down on his whiffs.

The Riser: Jim Negrych | Born: March 1985 | Infielder

The former University of Pittsburgh infielder had a breakout 2008 campaign by hitting .370/.449/.508 in 386 High-A at-bats. Jim Negrych also held his own during a late-season promotion to Double-A. He doesn’t have much power, but he showed a good eye at the plate (55 walks, 55 strikeouts in High-A) and he steals in the odd base (12 attempts, seven stolen in 2008). Negrych spent his first two pro seasons playing second base but was moved over to third for most of 2008 where he struggled defensively (.912 FP, 2.87 RF/g). He also lacks the power to be an average to above-average offensive player at the hot corner. He is back playing second base in the fall Hawaii Baseball League.

The Tumbler: Daniel Moskos| Born: April 1986 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Daniel Moskos was a bit of a quizzical pick as the Pirates’ first selection (fourth overall) in the 2007 draft and he struggled miserably in his first full pro season. Most teams felt Moskos had the potential to be a starter in pro ball, but Pittsburgh initially announced that he would be a reliever. After the 2007 season, though, Moskos was shifted to the rotation and posted a 5.95 ERA in High-A ball this past year. He allowed 124 hits in 110.1 innings and posted rates of 3.51 BB/9 and 6.36 K/9. Moskos’ fastball was also lacking zip. Obviously, he needs to turn things around in 2009.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Chase D’Arnaud | Born: January 1987 | Shortstop

The brother of Philadelphia’s 2007 supplemental first round pick Travis D’Arnaud, Chase D’Arnaud had a solid college career at Pepperdine and was selected in the fourth round by Pittsburgh. He posted solid numbers in his debut with a line of .286/.330/.423 in 168 short-season at-bats. D’Arnaud played mostly third base in college, before his final season, but lacks the power to play there regularly in pro ball. At worst, he should be a solid utility player who can do a little bit of everything at the Major League level.

The ’09 Sleeper: Robinzon Diaz | Born: September 1983 | Catcher

Robinzon Diaz was obtained from Toronto late in the season for the disappointing Jose Bautista. Diaz has the chance to be a solid player, as an athletic catcher who does not strikeout (7.6 K% at Triple-A in 2008) and puts his bat on everything he swings at (which is just about everything – 3.7 BB% at Triple-A). Diaz is athletic for a catcher and has also played some third base and second base. He could be a valuable bench player and third catcher in the National League – although he has the potential to play regularly.

Up Next: The Chicago White Sox

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Neil Walker out of a local high school in the first round of the 2004 draft (11th overall). At the time, he was a young, promising, switch-hitting catcher. More than four years later, though, Walker is on the cusp of the Major Leagues but he has been converted to the hot corner.

The move from behind the plate really does hurt Walker’s potential quite a bit. With catchers, any type of offence is considered a bonus, as long as they play solid defence and call a good game. At third base, though, the bat is under the microscope as this position is traditionally a power position.

In five minor league seasons, Walker’s line looks like this: .273/.320/.426. That is OK, but not spectacular for a former No. 1 draft pick hoping to play third base at the Major League level, especially given that Walker hit just .242/.280/.414 in 505 at-bats during the 2008 Triple-A season. On the plus side, he did hit a career-high 16 homers and drove in 80 runs.

On the downside, he walked just 5.4% of the time, had an OPS of .697 and an ISO of .172, none of which screams impact bat. Walker will be just 24 next season but he will need to make some adjustments and get his bat going if he hopes to avoid getting left behind. Earlier this season, Pittsburgh obtained top third base prospect Andy LaRoche from the Los Angeles Dodges and he has a head start on claiming the title of third baseman of the future.

I have to admit that I have not been a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ moves in recent years, but things are beginning to change. The Manny Ramirez deal, which the Pirates were involved in as the third team in, netted the organization some interesting players, as did the Xavier Nady trade with the New York Yankees.

After dealing with two powerhouse AL East teams, the Pirates made a smaller deal with another team in the division, the Toronto Blue Jays. The Pirates sent underachieving Jose Bautista, a former Rule 5 player who was playing at Triple-A and is eligible for arbitration after the season, to the Jays for a player to be named later. Bautista will help fill in for the perennially-injured Scott Rolen at third base.

The player-to-be-named-later was named yesterday, and it was Triple-A catcher Robinzon Diaz. I don’t like the trade from the Jays’ perspective because general manager J.P. Ricciardi – once again – sold low on a player. Diaz is a bad-ball hitter who has excellent hand-eye coordination and is a .300-plus career hitter (.306 in seven seasons), albeit with no power. He had been struggling at Triple-A, but had also missed a good portion of the season due to a severe ankle sprain.

Diaz was made expendable for Toronto because of the emergence of catcher Brian Jeroloman (Triple-A), and J.P. Arencibia (Double-A), both of whom were drafted and acquired under the Ricciardi tenure, while Diaz was not (Ricciardi seems to have a large bias for his own players).

The soon-to-be 25 year old catcher is very athletic and can play just about any where but shortstop and center field. He has an average arm for a catcher and pretty good catching skills, but his game calling has been criticized by Jays’ minor league pitchers. He should make a great third-string catcher and back-up at third base and second base.

Diaz will not be a superstar but he will be a solid addition to a National League club in rebuilding mode. With both of Toronto’s catching facing free agency this winter, he is also someone that organization could have used more than an arbitration-eligible utility player who cannot hit above .250.

You know, the Pittsburgh Pirates can actually make a good trade or two.

Seriously. No, really. Stop laughing.

At the end of 2006 the organization traded a reliever to the Atlanta Braves by the name of Mike Gonzalez. Now Gonzalez had had some success (24 saves in 2006) and he still has good stuff. But he was still a reliever with limited experience acting as a closer. Regardless, the Atlanta Braves gave up a starting first baseman – Adam LaRoche – and two prospects including a low-level prospect by the name of Jamie Romak for Gonzalez.

Gonzalez went on to pitch in 18 games for Atlanta in 2007 before blowing out his arm and he is still rehabbing in 2008. LaRoche has had an up-and-down tenure in Pittsburgh but he did hit 42 doubles and 21 homers while driving in 88 runs in 2007.

Romak is a bit of a forget man, but he is starting to be taken seriously. The London, Ontario native (my hometown) was taken in the fourth round of the 2003 draft out of high school due to his raw power.

The right-handed hitter was slowed by injuries in his debut season and he spent parts of three years in short-season ball. His 2006 and 2007 seasons in A-ball could be described as good, but not great as he showed glimpses of his power but still struck out a lot as consistency eluded him.

Repeating High-A ball in 2008, Romak has found some consistency. His line currently stands at .286/.365/.565 as a 22-year-old in Lynchburg. Romak has 25 doubles and 18 homers in 283 at-bats. Now the downside: He is still striking out more than 30 percent of the time. In fairness, Russell Branyan has had an OK career with a career K% of 40 percent… but he also showed a little more power in the minors than Romak, including 40 homers in 482 low-A ball at-bats in 1996. Let’s compare the two players’ minor league careers to this point:

Branyan .262/.361/.560 in 2,715 at-bats
Romak   .252/.362/.480 in 1,314 at-bats

With those minor league numbers, Branyan has gone on to post a line of .230/.327/.485 at the Major League level. Romak is still young – and a ways from reaching his potential – but I would have to guess that the Canadian youngster would be pretty happy to achieve an 11-year Major League career with about 2,000 at-bats and 132 career homers. The Pirates would probably happily take it too.

And fans in Cleveland sure enjoyed watching Branyan launch those towering homers when he burst onto the scene.