Archive for Prince Fielder

On Tuesday, we learned that Prince Fielder’s career has come to an end following his second major neck surgery in just the last three years. Jeff Sullivan provided a fitting eulogy for Fielder’s career a couple days ago. While the news is certainly devastating for Fielder on a personal level, this post concerns another matter — namely, the potential financial implications of Fielder’s injury, both for the Texas Rangers and Fielder himself. At the heart of the matter: the nine-year, $214 million contract Fielder signed in 2012, a deal that guarantees him another $24 million annually from 2017 through 2020.

For starters, it’s important to note that Fielder is not officially retiring from baseball, but rather has been declared medically disabled and therefore is no longer considered to be physically able to play the game. This is an important distinction legally, because had Fielder voluntarily decided to retire, then he would have forfeited the roughly $104 million remaining on his contract. Instead, by being declared medically unable to play, Fielder remains entitled to the full amount he’s owed under his contract.

Because Texas reportedly has an insurance policy covering his contract in the event of injury, the Rangers will not be on the hook for the entirety of the team’s remaining financial obligation to Fielder. Instead, the club will apparently only be responsible for paying Fielder $9 million per year from 2017 to 2020, with the rest of his salary covered by the team’s insurer (who will reportedly contribute another $9 million per year) and the Detroit Tigers (who are on the hook for the final $6 million per season, based on the terms of the trade that brought Fielder to Texas in exchange for Ian Kinsler in 2013).

That having been said, although the precise terms of the Rangers’ insurance policy are not publicly available, it appears likely that this $9 million in cost savings will not come without some strings attached for the club. Moreover, it’s also possible that the team’s insurance company could still yet find a way to avoid paying some or all of its share of Fielder’s contract.

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While the upcoming Free Agent crop isn’t the deepest in recent memory, there are a few sexy names at the top of the list. One of those names is of course Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder. Looking at his stats, we see a player who has accumulated 15.3 WAR over the last three seasons and is a perennial threat to launch 40 home runs and get on base over 40% of the time. However, due to his less than slim body type, it is not prudent to assume that he will age like most other Major League players.

In order to attempt to predict what Fielder will do over the life of his next contract, we should compare him to players with similar body types. Jeff Zimmerman has put together a list of 205 players who weigh more than 3.25 lbs per inch of height in order to construct an aging curve. To put that in perspective, a 6’0″ tall player would have to weigh a minimum of 234 lbs in order to be included in the sample.

Below is a graph that shows the aging curve of the heavy players we identified, and the curve for average sized players. Across the x-axis is age, and the y-axis runs (batting, positional, UZR), with 0 being the peak year. The y-axis shows how many runs below the peak year they are at a given age.

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Only two players who may be headed to arbitration submitted salary figures at least $2 mil more than what their team’s offered: Ryan Howard ($4 mil) and Prince Fielder ($2 mil). Earlier today, we discussed Howard’s case and how he really does not follow the 40/60/80 fair market value modifier for arbitration deals. Howard set a record last season by winning his case and jumping from $900K to $10 mil, so does Prince have a shot to do something similar? Fielder had his deal renewed to $670K last season, which infuriated the portly first baseman.

Prince submitted an $8 mil figure while the Brewers felt a more appropriate salary would be $6 mil. Granted, with such a small discrepancy, relatively speaking, it should be much easier to settle with Fielder than Howard, but, alliteration aside what does Prince’s projected production portend?

The projection systems suggest Fielder’s wOBA will come between .380 and .400. At .390, he would be worth right around +32 runs with the bat. His fielding has never been a strong suit, ranging from -7 to -10 with the glove. Prince has been very durable, however, so 160 games and 680 PA are not a stretch. Based on these numbers, Fielder would be worth approximately +33.5 runs above replacement. We will round this off to +3.4 wins.

At fair market value, Prince commands $15.3 mil. Entering his first season, his value can be calculated by multiplying the fair market value by 40%. 0.40 * $15.3 mil = $6.1 mil. Essentially, the Brewers proposed salary is exactly 40% of Prince’s fair market value. Fielder’s figure would value around 52% of his fair market value, potentially setting up a 50/70/90 modifier as opposed to 40/60/80.

GM Doug Melvin has hinted that a settlement may well be reached prior to the court date, regardless of the fact that Scott Boras represents Prince. Whether Fielder gets $6 mil or $8 mil, the eventual contract makes sense given his production level and service time, especially considering he isn’t immediately jumping to 75-80% of his market value.