Archive for Reynaldo Navarro

General Manager: Josh Byrnes
Farm Director: Mike Berger
Scouting Director: Tom Allison

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Perhaps no team’s Top 10 list would benefit more if 2009 draftees were included. The system, hurting for depth, was served some serious CPR this past season. Players who could be in the Top 10, if eligible, include: Matt Davidson, Ryan Wheeler, Marc Krauss, Mike Belfiore, Chris Owings, A.J. Pollock, Keon Broxton, and Bobby Borchering… but you read about those eight prospects in yesterday’s draft review, so you’re basically getting a Top 18 prospect list with this organization (please, save the applause).

1. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Double-A
DOB: November 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Indiana HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-97 mph fastball, plus slider, curveball, change-up

If not for Tommy John surgery, Parker might have been pitching at the MLB level in late ’09 or early 2010. As it stands now, he’ll spend the year trying to recapture his previous form. The right-hander was having a nice season in ’09 pre-injury. He blew through high-A in four dominating starts and then made 16 more appearances in double-A before the elbow popped. He allowed 82 hits in 78.1 innings of work, while also showing OK control with a walk rate of 3.91 BB/9 and posting good strikeout numbers (8.50 K/9). Parker also did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.23 HR/9) due to his ground-ball rate of 55%. If he can regain his previous fastball velo, and keep up the ground-ball rate, Parker could be a No. 1 or 2 starter in the Majors.

2. Brandon Allen, 1B, Majors
DOB: February 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2004 5th round – Texas HS (Chicago AL)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

A nice grab from the White Sox (a club that also gave up on Oakland’s Chris Carter), Allen had a breakout ’09 season and looked like he might have a shot at the MLB job in 2010 until the organization signed free agent Adam LaRoche. The soon-to-be-24-year-old will receive another year of seasoning in triple-A unless LaRoche goes down with an injury. Allen played for four teams (three levels) in ’09 and he made his MLB debut. In total, he slugged 34 homers and possesses massive power that could allow him to hit 30+ in the Majors if he can make enough contact. In 104 MLB at-bats, the slugger struck out at a rate of 38.5%, which was about 18% more often than he struck out in the minors in ’09. Allen has done a nice job of getting on-base during his career, with multiple seasons of +10% walk rates.

3. Cole Gillespie, OF, Triple-A
DOB: June 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 3rd round – Oregon State University (Milwaukee)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Gillespie was acquired last season from Milwaukee and is your typical fringe-regular. He does a lot of things well, but nothing stands out. He doesn’t have enough range to play center field, so he’s stuck on a corner and that shines a lot more light on his bat, which is average. A gap hitter, Gillespie projects to hit around 10-15 homers and steal about the same number of bases. His best bet for a prolonged MLB career is as a fourth outfielder in the Reed Johnson mold. He spent much of the ’09 season where he hit .242/.332/.424 in 236 at-bats and his BABIP was on the low side at .289. In triple-A for Arizona, he hit .304/.418/.514, but was aided by a BABIP of .363. Gillespie does a nice job of getting on base (+10% walk rate) but he strikes out too much for his average power.

4. Collin Cowgill, OF, High-A
DOB: May 22, 1986 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2008 5th round – University of Kentucky
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Cowgill is an interesting player and not that dissimilar from Gillespie. Just 5’9”, he’s shown some good pop for his size but he doesn’t project to be a power hitter in the Majors. More likely than not, he’s going to end up as a fourth outfielder or platoon player. He battled injuries in ’09 and had just 220 at-bats in high-A. His triple-slash line was .277/.373/.445 and he showed good patience at the plate with a walk rate of 11.2%. His strikeout rate was a bit high at 22.3%. He added 11 steals in 15 tries. If given full playing time in the Majors, Cowgill would likely produce some 15-15 seasons. It will be interesting to see what he can do in double-A in 2010.

5. Wade Miley, LHP, High-A
DOB: November 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Southeastern Louisiana University
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, slider, curveball, change-up

A personal favorite of mine from the ’08 draft, Miley has developed slowly. The southpaw, already 23, spent the majority of the year in low-A where he allowed a lot of hits (127) in 113.2 innings of work. On the plus side, he showed good control with a walk rate of 2.30 BB/9. His strikeout rate was modest at 7.21 K/9. Overall, he posted a FIP of 3.38 but at his age, and experience level, he should have dominate the league. He received three starts in high-A and that’s where he should begin the 2010 season, and will look to have a little more luck on his side after posting a high BABIP and a low strand rate.

6. Leyson Septimo, LHP, Double-A
DOB: July 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire:91-95 mph fastball, slider

A former outfielder who wasn’t totally useless at the plate (He hit .270 before his conversion to the mound), Septimo is now trying to harness his plus-fastball as a reliever. In ’09 at high-A, he allowed 29 hits in 38.1 innings of work while and he struck out batters at a rate of 10.33 K/9. He moved up to double-A and posted a strikeout rate of 12.27 K/9. It’s his control that is holding him back, though, and he posted a walk rate of 6.10 at high-A and 8.84 BB/9 in double-A. With just under 100 innings of pitching experience, it’s no surprise that Septimo’s control is off, but he’s turning 25 in July and he hasn’t dominated left-handed batters.

7. Reynaldo Navarro, SS, Low-A
DOB: December 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – Puerto Rico HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Just 20, this former third-round pick is still raw but he remains an interesting shortstop prospect. While spending ’09 in low-A, Navarro hit .262/.308/.339 in 451 at-bats. The weaknesses are clear: his walk rate is just 5.5% and his ISO rate was .078. Navarro does have some speed and he swiped 12 bases in 16 tries. He also did a nice job of trimming his ’08 strikeout rate from 26.5% to 18.8% in ’09, giving hope that he could develop into a No. 2 hitter. Defensively, he has good range for the position but his arm might get him moved off the position to second base. Navarro is a long way off from reaching the Majors, but his potential appears to be that of a starting shortstop on a second-tier club.

8. Cesar Valdez, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 86-90 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Valdez is a soft-tosser whose best pitch is a change-up. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high-80s. Even so, he’s had success in the minors, although he hit a speed bump in ’09 at triple-A (5.18 FIP in 19 games). The right-hander began the year in double-A, where he allowed 63 hits in 64.1 innings and posted a 3.00 FIP. He has good control (2.81 BB/9 in triple-A) but his strikeout rates are modest, as he pitches to contact due to his lack of a true out-pitch. Valdez does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and should produce a ground-ball rate around 50%. Because of his fringe-stuff, he could end up as a middle reliever.

9. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Majors
DOB: May 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 2nd round – Villanova University (New York NL)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 87-92 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

Part of the ill-fated Johan Santana trade between the Twins and Mets, Mulvey made his way from the Twins to the Diamondbacks in ’09. He had a respectable, but far from dominant, year in triple-A for the Twins where he posted a 3.96 FIP and allowed 153 hits in 149.0 innings. He showed average control and posted a walk rate of 3.25 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was low at 6.83 K/9. The right-hander struggled in eight MLB appearances split between the Twins and the Diamondbacks. His ceiling is probably that of a No. 4 starter or long/middle reliever. Mulvey has a pretty good slider, but he needs to improve his fastball command so he can set up his out-pitch.

10. Roque Mercedes, RHP, Double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Another ’09 trade acquisition, Mercedes had a nifty season in the bullpen for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks organizations. The right-hander began the year in high-A and posted a 2.19 FIP in 29 games. Batters managed to hit just .181 against him and he posted a strikeout rate of 9.72 K/9. His walk rate was OK at 3.24 BB/9 and he did not allow a home run. Moved up to double-A after the trade, Mercedes’ FIP rose to 3.67 and he allowed 14 hits in 19.0 innings. His walk rate jumped to 4.74 BB/9 but his K-rate rose to 11.84 K/9. The 23-year-old pitcher is probably still a year away from the Majors and his ceiling is probably that of an eighth-inning set-up man.

Up Next: The Los Angeles Angels

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year.

The Graduate: Gerardo Parra, OF
This 22-year-old outfielder was not supposed to play such a key role on the Major League club in 2009. Despite that fact, Parra was hitting .288/.322/.400 in 448 at-bats during the final week of the season. The left-handed hitter clearly needs to improve against southpaws if he is going to avoid the dreaded platoon, as he is hitting just .200/.250/.220 in 100 at-bats. Parra was incredibly consistent on the year, hitting under .298 in just one month (June at .214). The five steals in 11 attempts is a disappointing number when you consider he stole 20+ bases each season in the minors.

The Riser: Josh Collmenter, RHP
With the exception of Jarrod Parker, who is now hurt, there are not a lot of high-ceiling players in the Arizona system. Right-hander Josh Collmenter is a steady pitcher with a modest ceiling, but he’s put together two solid back-to-back seasons. The 23-year-old was a little old for high-A ball and his 8-10 record, as well as 4.15 ERA, do not look overly impressive. Strip away those stats, though, and you see 127 hits allowed in 145.1 innings in a good hitter’s league, a 0.50 HR/9 rate, and a FIP of 3.12. Collmenter also posted an OK walk rate of 3.41 BB/9 and his strikeout rate jumped almost 2.00 over his 2008 season in low-A ball to 9.41 K/9.

The Tumbler: Collin Cowgill, OF
Cowgill is another example of why you should never get too excited when a college draft pick puts up really crazy numbers in short-season ball… and the same can be said for small sample power numbers (Oh, Mitch Einertson, where are you?). To be fair to Cowgill, the outfielder did struggle with injuries in 2009 but he did not exactly set the world on fire when he was in the lineup. In 220 high-A at-bats, the 23-year-old prospect hit .277/.373/.445 with an ISO of .168. He did show some patience at the plate with a walk rate of 11.6%. Cowgill is probably going to end up as a tweener… along the lines of Shane Costa.

The ’10 Sleeper: Reynaldo Navarro, SS
The Diamondbacks organization is not known for investing a lot of time and money into raw, toolsy players… it prefers to go the college route with its prospects. Navarro was a fun deviation from the usual game plan, but he’s been slow to develop as a 2006 third round draft pick out of Puerto Rico. This season, he hit .262/.308/.339 with 12 steals in 451 at-bats in low-A ball. Obviously there is work to be done, but he’s still just 19 and he only became a full-time switch-hitter after being drafted. Defensively, he should stick at shortstop; his range took a hit this season but he cut down on the youthful errors.

Bonus: Evan Frey, OF
Frey was highlighted as the sleeper during the ’08 review series. The speedy outfielder stole a career-high 31 bases in 2009 at double-A, but he was caught 14 times. His walk rate dropped a bit to 10.3% but he trimmed his strikeout rate to 15.4% after it sat at 20.1% in high-A ball in ’08. The OPS went from .815 in 2008 to just .686 in 2009 and his batting average also lost .030 points, in part due to a drop in BABIP from .367 to .314.

Leading up to the 2007 MLB amateur draft, there were three Puerto Rican players considered to be head-and-shoulders above their fellow country men in terms of potential: Reynaldo Navarro, Neftali Soto, and Angel Morales. All three players were chosen in the third round and were considered raw but talented. Let’s see how each one fared during the 2008 season.

Reynaldo Navarro, Shortstop, Arizona Diamondbacks
Navarro, 18, got off to a slow start after turning pro in 2007 by hitting .250/.274/.283 in 212 Rookie ball at-bats. He returned to the same league in 2008 and has improved, albeit slowly. He produced a line of .262/.334/.379 with 17 stolen bases in 256 at-bats. After walking just six times last season, Navarro has improved his patience by walking 25 times in 2008. The switch hitter needs to improve his swing from the left-hand side as he hit just .212 against right-handers, compared to .377 against southpaws. Right now, defence is his strong suit as a slick-fielding shortstop with range and actions. His arm strength is average.

Neftali Soto, Third baseman, Cincinnati Reds
Originally a shortstop, Soto was immediately converted to third base by the Reds. In his debut in the Gulf Coast League in 2007, he got off to a fast start and hit .303/.355/.454 in 40 games. The Reds were cautious with Soto in 2008 and he began the year in Rookie ball again where he hit .388/.423/.746 in 15 games. Soto, 19, was promoted to A-ball and hit .333/.352/.502 with six homers in 201 at-bats. The knock on him, though, is his lack of patience. In 103 pro games, Soto has walked just 22 times. Regardless, he is an intriguing prospect and has shown a lot of improvement in a short period of time. Reds fans need to start talking about this guy.

Angel Morales, Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
Morales’ bat was considered to be his weakest tool coming into the draft. He still struggles with consistency but no one expected him to hit with this kind of power, especially so soon. Morales had a decent debut by hitting .256/.357/.405 in 121 at-bats in the Gulf Coast League in 2007. He was held back for short-season ball again in 2008 but was promoted to a league that features more college players and Morales exploded with 15 homers in 183 at-bats. His overall line is .301/.413/.623 with 26 walks and a disturbing 72 strikeouts. Morales is going to have to swing-and-miss a lot less if he is going to maintain his average at higher levels. The right-handed batter is also hitting just .135 against southpaws, but that should improve as he sees more of them. Defensively, Morales is a solid center fielder.