Archive for Ross Seaton

To run a successful minor league system you have to draft well every June and spend money wisely on the international market. But you also have to have some luck by mining other systems for undervalued talent. Below you’ll find six prospects with diminished prospect value that may be poised to finally see the light click on in 2012. All the players were, at one time, highly regarded. Only one of them appeared on my 2012 Top 15 prospects lists – coming in at No. 15 on the Boston Red Sox ranking.

Mike Kvasnicka, C, Houston: Kvasnicka saw his draft stock take a huge leap in 2010 when he showed solid skills behind the dish while playing at the University of Minnesota. Hoping to get Kvasnicka to the Majors sooner rather than later the Astros organization made the decision to move him to a less demanding position. Unfortunately, his bat was not as potent as expected and did not profile well at the hot corner. The new front office regime recently made the decision to relocate Kvasnicka back behind the dish. He may return to low-A ball in 2012 to get re-acclimated with catching without putting too much pressure on his offensive game. He tired in the second half of 2011 so he’ll have to get stronger to withstand a full year of squatting behind the plate. A switch-hitting catcher carries a ton of potential value.

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General Manager: Ed Wade
Farm Director: Tal Smith
Scouting Director: Bobby Heck

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

What a change. After being one of the absolute worst systems in all of baseball for a few years, we’re finally seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. There is one note of caution to be had with the prospects in the system, though. Having a minor-league affiliate in Lancaster (High-A) means that many offensive prospects’ numbers will be inflated (see Koby Clemens) by playing there, while pitchers’ numbers will be skewed negatively. That extreme hitter’s park makes judging prospects all that much harder.

1. Jason Castro, C, Double-A
DOB: June 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Stanford University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With the re-emergence of J.R. Towles, an underrated player, and Castro’s rapid development, the organization could have a very nice problem, and in short order. The problem could be solved quite easily, though, with a platoon of the two catchers. Eventually, Castro’s bat will probably justify more at-bats as he’s hung in quite well against southpaws in pro ball (albeit in a rather small sample size). Overall in ’09, Castro hit .293/.362/.385 in 239 double-A at-bats. He began the year in high-A ball and got a lot of people excited with a .208 ISO, but that was likely the result of playing in Lancaster. His ISO rate dropped to .092 in double-A and it was just .109 in ’08. Even so, he projects to be an above-average offensive catcher. He threw out 59% of base runners attempting to steal against him in high-A, but that number dropped to 28% after his promotion.

2. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Low-A
DOB: October 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental first round – South Carolina HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

The teen-aged Lyles had an excellent season in low-A ball with a FIP of just 2.42. His strikeout rate of 10.39 K/9 was also impressive and his walk rate of 2.36 BB/9 was just as encouraging. The 44% ground-ball rate was OK and he did a nice job of keeping balls in the park with just five homers allowed (0.31 HR/9). Overall, Lyles allowed 134 hits in 144.2 innings. He was particularly effective against left-handed hitters and he posted a strikeout rate of 11.55 K/9 with just one homer allowed in 55.1 innings. The move up to Lancaster will be a huge challenge for the youngster, and his mental toughness will likely be challenged.

3. Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, Double-A
DOB: April 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Taiwan)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up, splitter

The organization does not deal in the international market as much as it used to, but the club has received good value from some of its choices, such as Lo and Gervacio. Lo reached double-A in his North American debut and could help out in the Houston bullpen in 2010. The right-hander began the year in high-A and he allowed just 10 hits in 25.1 innings. He overpowered hitters and had a strikeout rate of 12.79 K/9. Lo, 23, will need to clean up his control after posting a walk rate of 4.62 BB/9 in both high-A and double-A. In 39.0 double-A innings, he gave up just one homer.

4. Ross Seaton, RHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Seaton was a highly-regarded amateur who fell to the Astros in the third round due to signability concerns (He was committed to the Tulane University). His first full pro season was modest. He posted a 4.08 FIP in low-A and allowed 137 hits in 136.2 innings of work. Seaton showed solid control with a rate of 2.57 BB/9, but his strikeout rate was just 5.80 K/9 and his stuff is better than that. He needs to learn to set up hitters better, and he needs to improve the command of his breaking ball. Seaton will need to improve his ground-ball rate (40%) if he’s going to survive the trip to Lancaster.

5. Sammy Gervacio, RHP, Majors
DOB: January 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2002 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options:
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

With a strong showing in 21 MLB games in ’09, Gervacio likely earned himself a good shot at beginning the 2010 season in Houston’s bullpen. The right-hander posted a 2.62 FIP in 21 innings and allowed just 16 hits. His strikeout rate of 10.71 was impressive, as was his ground-ball rate of 57.4%. If he can keep those rates up, he could be a monster – as well as a future closer. Gervacio’s control has been respectable over the past few seasons and he posted a walk rate of 3.43 BB/9 in the Majors. Hitters clearly had trouble making contact with the reliever: His contact rate of 61% was almost 20% below league average, but he needs to throw more first-pitch strikes out of the bullpen (51.8%, league average was 58.2%).

6. Jonathan Gaston, OF, High-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 7th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Just call him Mr. Lancaster. The outfielder came out of no where in ’09 to hit .278/.367/.598 with a .320 ISO but look at the splits before getting too excited. Gaston hit .309/.399/.695 at home in Lancaster and just .249/.339/.510 in the road. He needs to make some adjustments against southpaws after hitting just .228/.335/.443. He’s also going to have to improve upon his 31.7% strikeout rate. On the plus side, he showed good base running with 14 steals, 15 triples and 119 runs scored. His walk rate of 12.1% was also nice to see. Gaston definitely has some talent, but he’s not going to repeat his .410 wOBA season in double-A.

7. Jay Austin, OF, Low-A
DOB: August 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Atlanta HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The Astros drafted Austin knowing that he would require some patience, but he’s already making good on the investment. After posting a strikeout rate of 32.5% in his debut, Austin reduced it to 19.6% in low-A ball in ’09. His OPS also rose from .512 in ’08 to .680 this past season, with an overall line of .267/.320/.360. In 297 at-bats, the outfielder posted an ISO of just .093 so power is clearly not a part of his game right now. He stole 23 bases but was caught 13 times, so he needs to improve his reads (He was also caught six times in 20 tries in ’08).

8. T.J. Steele, OF, High-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Drafted as a raw college project, Steele has benefited from crazy-high BABIPs of .400+ in each of his first two pro seasons. Overall in ’09, Steele hit .345/.385/.562 in 194 at-bats. His power output was positively affected from Lancaster, and he slugged .216. Injuries were a problem for Steele, as he appeared in just 50 games. He also needs to show more patience at the plate (4.4%) and use his speed on the base paths more effectively (eight steals in 14 tries… but he was hampered by hamstring issues). A healthy Steele should move up to double-A in 2010 where we’ll get a better feel for his abilities.

9. Brad Dydalewicz, LHP, Low-A
DOB: March 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 8th round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Dydalewicz shows a lot of potential and he had a nice first full season in the minors in ’09. The southpaw allowed just 93 hits in 110.0 innings, in part due to a low .273 BABIP. His walk rate was a little high at 4.17 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was low at 6.38 K/9. Dydalewicz did a nice job of limiting the home run (0.49 HR/9) and he had an impressive ground-ball rate at 54%. He’ll probably need to log quite a few innings before he’s MLB-ready, but the 19 year old has a nice ceiling if everything clicks.

10. Collin DeLome, OF, Double-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 5th round – Lamar University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

DeLome is another one of those raw, athletic college players that Houston just seems to love. He’s struggled to hit for average over the past two seasons, but his power has played really well. This past season, DeLome hit .255/.323/.465 with an ISO of .210 in 467 at-bats. His strikeout rate of 30.2% needs to be trimmed and he needs to clean up his base running after getting caught eight times in 23 tries. The left-handed hitter batted .225/.315/.432 against southpaws and .270/.331/.480 against right-handers. He could contribute in Houston in 2010.

Up Next: The New York Yankees

2008 Draft Slot: 10th overall
Top Pick: Jason Castro, C, Stanford University
Best Pick: Jason Castro
Keep an Eye On: Ross Seaton, RHP, Houston high school (Third round)
Notes: The Astros organization made some interesting decisions during the 2008 draft. The club nabbed Ross Seaton in the supplemental third round after the talented Texan dropped out of first-round consideration due to signability concerns. The club used its supplemental first round pick on South Carolina prep pitcher Jordan Lyles, whom most clubs did not consider a top pick. Lyles, though, has pitched extremely well so far, which has made Houston’s scouts look incredibly wise. Both Lyles and Seaton are playing in low-A ball, with the former out-performing the latter. Jason Castro is having a solid offensive season in high-A ball and could potentially see double-A by the end of the year.

2007 Draft Slot: Third round (111th overall)
Top Pick: Derek Dietrich, 3B, Cleveland high school (Did not sign)
Best Pick: Collin DeLome, OF, Lamar University (Fifth round)
Worst Pick: David Dinelli, RHP, California junior college (6th round)
Notes: There is no sugar-coating the fact that this was an ugly draft. The Astros organization did not have a pick before the third round and then it failed to sign its third- and fourth-round selections. The sixth-round pick posted an ERA above 7.00 in two rookie seasons, and the seventh-round pick is hitting .134 in low-A ball in 2009. Collin DeLome is showing some promising power at double-A this season, but his average is modest and he’s walking just 3.3% of the time. There is also some hope for RHP Kyle Greenwalt (20th round).

2006 Draft Slot: 23rd overall
Top Pick: Max Sapp, C, Florida high school
Best Pick: Bud Norris, RHP, University of Cal Poly (6th round)
Worst Pick: Nick Moresi, OF, Fresno State University (3rd round)
Notes: Max Sapp suffered a severe case of viral meningitis this past off-season. He’ll miss the entire 2009 season, but that is hardly important at this point. He’s also still young. RHP Sergio Perez (2nd round) missed most of the 2008 after breaking his hand and injuring his groin. He’s currently working his way back into baseball shape in double-A. Third baseman Chris Johnson (4th round) has a chance to contribute at the Major League level, although probably not as an everyday player.

2009 Draft Slot: 21st overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): High school or prep players
MLB Club Need: Third base, Starting pitching, Relief pitching
Organizational Need: Right field, Shortstop, Second base, First base, Pitching
Organizational Strength: Catcher, Center field
Notes: The Astros organization has an extra pick in the supplemental third round (the only club with such a pick) after the team failed to sign its 2008 third-round selection Chase Davidson. The draft has definitely not been a strength of the team’s for quite some time. In fact, a few of the recent drafts have been almost laughable. The club did, though, take some interesting names last year so perhaps things are starting to improve. The club desperately needs some minor-league depth.

The Graduate: J.R. Towles | Born: February 1984 | Catcher

J.R. Towles came into the 2008 season as the No. 1 prospect in the Astros (weak) minor league system. He promptly fell on his face and was an offensive mess. Towles hit .137/.250/.253 with an ISO of .116 in 146 at-bats. He rebounded in the minors to hit more than .300 at Triple-A, but the damage has been done to his reputation as a potential front line catcher. His BABIP was a lousy .157 and he showed a little bit of patient with a walk rate of 9.9%. Towles is definitely a better hitter than he showed in 2008 but Jason Castro (the Astros’ first round draft pick in 2008) is now breathing down his neck.

The Riser: Drew Sutton | Born: June 1983 | Second Baseman

Keeping in mind that the Astros have one of the worst minor league systems in Major League Baseball, Drew Sutton was no where to be found at the end of 2007 when discussing prospects in the organization. Fast-forward a year and you have a potential long-term replacement for Craig Biggio. Sutton spent the 2008 season in Double-A (admittedly his second straight season at that level) and hit .317/.404/.523 with 20 homers and 102 RBI in 520 at-bats. His ISO jumped from .119 in 2007 to .206 in 2008. He’s also good for 20 stolen bases in a season and balances out his strikeouts (18.8 K%) with a healthy number of walks (12.8%). Sutton is continuing his hot season by hitting .370 (1.175 OPS) in the Arizona Fall League with six homers in 81 at-bats.

The Tumbler: Max Sapp | Born: February 1988 | Catcher

It was a bad year for incumbent catching prospects in the Astros system. Max Sapp, the Astros 2006 first round pick, had a dismal year while repeating A-ball. His line of .200/.284/.294, with rates of 10.5 BB% and 30.2 K%, was a steep drop from an already-disappointing 2007 season. Defensively, Sapp showed some improvements by cutting his passed balls in half to eight and throwing out 26 of 78 base runners (33%). Only 20, the catcher still has time to resurrect his career.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Ross Seaton | Born: September 1989 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Ross Seaton was considered the best prep pitching prospect in Texas, so it is no surprise that he was nabbed by Houston. Seaton, though, was projected to go as high as the supplemental first round of the 2008 draft. He lasted until the supplemental third round and Houston happily grabbed him and gave him an over-slot deal. Seaton had a rough, but brief, introduction to professional baseball by allowing eight hits in four innings of work, along with two walks and four strikeouts. Seaton has above-average control for his age, as well as a low-to-mid-90s fastball. He also features a slider and change-up.

The ’09 Sleeper: Koby Clemens | Born: December 1986 | Catcher

Despite posting lackluster numbers in his career, Koby Clemens has always been in the spotlight because of who his father is… or was. Recognizing that Clemens was not going to make it as a third baseman, the organization converted the hard-working youngster to a catcher and he showed some promise in 2008 – but he remains very raw. Offensively, he maintained his stats reasonably well considering he spent the year focusing on his defence. Clemens managed a line of .268/.367/.423 with an ISO of .155. He also posted rates of 13.6 BB% and 25.5 K%. Defensively, he made eight errors, committed 31 passed balls and threw out 45 of 130 base runners (35%) – while learning to play the position in-game and at the High-A ball level.

Up Next: The Tampa Bay Rays