Archive for Ryan Sweeney

To begin this week’s episode of All-Joy Team — i.e. the show that everyone’s talking about — let’s take a look at a photo that I’ve almost definitely figured out how to insert just below these words.

What do we notice here? A couple things, I’d say. For one, that Tommy Hilfiger recognizes the dignity of all races and genders as long as the people belonging to said races and/or genders are incredibly attractive. For two — and probably more relevant to our present concern — is that the people in this picture are having a laugh-riot of a good time.

There are a couple reasons why that might be. My guess is that the guy in the middle there, with the big, weird white X on his chest, made a goofy noise or something. It’s probably not the sorta thing that you or I would’ve found funny, but these are models we’re talking about; their standards are a little different. On the other hand, that white woman on the right and the black gentleman on the lower left appear to be giving the dog a lot of attention, which leads me to believe that it (i.e. the dog) maybe barked at an opportune moment. Somone was all, “Hey, dog, do you like Tommy Hilfiger’s sweet fashions?” and then the dog was all like, “Bark! Bark!” which I definitely see could be construed as a “yes” to a bystander. Whatever. In the end, it doesn’t matter so much. What matter is this: togetherness = joy.

By contrast, look at the photo of this one guy:

See how dour he is? He’s alone. The world is all darkness for him. Probably, at any second, he’s just gonna up and shoot an Arab, right before spiraling into a vortex of existential angst. That, or he’ll just gorge himself on store-bought rotisserie chicken and watch YouTube videos until falling asleep in a pool of his own mess. Either way, things aren’t looking so hot for him. And why? On account of he’s alone, is why.

I think what this brief study proves beyond a shadow of a doubt is that, in most cases, joy only really exists when it can be shared. And if the reader is under the impression that things are somehow different when composing a fake 25-man roster whose soul purpose is to provide joy to the sabermetrically oriented — well, that reader has another thing coming.

No, sometimes the means by which we’re introduced to a player — or, at the least, to the joy-inducing qualities of that player — is when one of our sabermetric brothers takes the time to paint said player’s portrait.

Here are three (well, 2.5) cases of that (categories in parentheses):
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My friend Danny and I have harbored the notion over the last year or so that no single baseball player looks more baseball-y than Oakland outfielder Ryan Sweeney. Sweeney is 6-foot-4, muscular in a lean way, and is conspicuously in possession of what the scouting community refers to as “long levers.” And while I’m no expert on the subject, I’m almost positive that he has The Good Face, too. He is, essentially, a jeans model.

And here’s the thing about jeans models in baseball: we’ve been trained to be suspicious of them. Moneyball — a.k.a. the reason that many of us were called to sabermetrics — trained us to be suspicious*. The draft room scene in which Billy Beane and his nerd sidekick Paul DePodesta are forced to defend the relative merits of bad body catcher Jeremy Brown to the Old Scouts — that scene drew up the battle lines between old and new quite effectively (if a little dramatically). And Beane repeats multiple times in that scene the line that became a veritable mantra for sabermetricians in the early Aughts: “We’re not selling jeans here.”

*Mr. Dave Cameron discussed a similar point recently.

The thing about Sweeney is, regardless of how well he’d do selling jeans, he was more than just a decent player last year. You might be surprised to learn that he was, in fact, a four-win player last year, just below Kendry Morales — 46th out of 154 qualified batters — on the FanGraphs leaderboard for WAR. True, his offense is no great shakes for a right fielder, a fact to which his 104 wRC+ can attest. But defensively — defensively, he appears to have been magical. Regress it however much you want: a 15.5 UZR in only 600 innings is excellent. And it’s totally in line with his 2008 performance, during which he was worth 11.3 runs above average in 487 right-field innings. Overall, for his career, Sweeney has a 30.7 UZR/150 in right with a bit over 1100 innings of play afield.

Our understanding of Sweeney’s value — especially his defensive value — is indicative of a trend in baseball of which you, as a FanGraphs reader, are almost entirely aware — a trend towards run prevention. Certainly, MGL’s UZR metric — which I’m led to believe was referenced on ESPN the other day — has been an important part of that. So, too, Sean Smith’s TotalZone and Tango’s Fan Scouting Reports and John Dewan’s Fielding Bible. Being able to quantify defensive runs has allowed to see certain players in a new light.

What’s interesting about many of these players is that, beyond being toolsy as frig, they’re also what Beane would describe as jeans models. This phenomenon hasn’t gone unnoticed by the editors of Lookout Landing, for example, who’ve settled on a tagline in praise of Franklin Gutierrez: “Our Center Fielder Is Better And/Or More Attractive In A Sexual Way Than Yours.” Gutierrez is essentially the poster boy for this new understanding of defensive value, and he, like Sweeney, has the sort of tools that would — and probably did, when he was younger — enamor scouts.

Of course, the dramatic coincidence here (note: it’s not irony — but we’ll save that discussion for another day), is that Sweeney the Jeans Model plays for Billy Beane, the man who more or less trained us to look past tools (which we maybe conflated, mistakenly, with ignoring tools altogether). And physically, Sweeney and Beane are quite similar. Sweeney’s Baseball Reference page lists him at 6-foot-4, 200 pounds. Beane? Well, I don’t know from which point in his career it’s taken, but his specs are almost identical: 6-foot-4, 195 pounds.

So what’s the lesson here? The same as always, I guess, just in different words. Use all the information you have. Always try to get better information. Don’t be afraid to change your mind if the information suggests you ought to. As the great sabermetrician Ralph Waldo Emerson says:

Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day.

To the max, Ralph Waldo. To the max.

Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the American League West division, which was home to quite a few interesting rookie names in 2008. Yesterday, we looked at the American League East and on Tuesday it was the AL Central.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Catcher Jeff Clement was in line to be the next big offensive-minded catcher in baseball. He was also an early possibility for the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2008, but a funny thing happened on the way to the Hall of Fame… Clement struggled with the bat, the organization made a stupid contract commitment to a veteran player at his position, and the club seemingly lost all confidence in him. Despite hitting well throughout his brief minor career and producing a .335/.455/.676 line in 48 triple-A games in 2008, the Mariners soured on Clement after he hit just .227/.295/.360 in his first taste of the Majors (66 games). In 2009, he’s started just 16 games at catcher at triple-A and 38 at designated hitter, because of a lingering knee problem and the organization’s obvious belief that his future is not behind the dish. Overall, Clement’s hitting .280/.352/.466 with seven homers. The left-handed hitter is batting just .219 versus southpaws (compared to .304 against right-handers).

The emphasis on outfield defense in Seattle has relegated Wladimir Balentien to the bench despite the fact he hit seven home runs in 71 games last season – oh, and he also hit just .202/.250/.342. Despite his obvious struggles with the bat and making contact (29.8 K% in the Majors), the organization has kept Balentien in the Majors for the entire 2009 season and he’s hitting just .218/.273/.336 with one home runs in 110 at-bats. The 24-year-old is out of options so the club is stuck between a rock and a hard place, but it’s not doing Balentien’s career any favors.

After a few abbreviated attempts at beginning his MLB career, Mark Lowe finally enjoyed a full season in the Majors in 2008 with modest results. He posted a 5.37 ERA (4.42 FIP) and allowed 78 hits in 63.2 innings of work. In 2009, he’s continued to show some improvements with a 3.90 ERA (3.92 FIP) and 32 hits allowed in 30 innings of work. His walk rate has improved from 4.81 to 3.90 BB/9 but his strikeout rate has also plummeted from 7.77 to 6.00 K/9.

Outfielder Ryan Sweeney appeared in 115 games for the A’s in 2008 but he had a pretty hollow season with a line of .286/.350/.383. He didn’t show much power with just five home runs and he didn’t use his speed by stealing nine bases. Things are not getting much better for the 24-year-old in 2009 with a line of .246/.313/.319. Sweeney also has just two homers and four stolen bases. He won’t be playing full-time much longer with numbers like that.

Daric Barton was another disappointing rookie in 2008 from an organization that has a reputation (deservedly so or not) for producing productive Major League players. The catcher-turned-first-baseman had a minor league line of .299/.411/.455 and had always hit for average, although there were questions about the 23 year old’s power potential. In his rookie season in the Majors in ’08, Barton hit for neither power nor average with a line of .226/.327/.348 in 446 at-bats. The struggles may have affected him mentally as he’s hitting just .245/.365/.385 with three homers in 200 at-bats in 2009.

Sean Gallagher, 23, was obtained last season from the Cubs in the Rich Harden trade. Between the two clubs, he posted a 5.15 ERA (4.48 FIP) with 118 hits allowed in 115.1 innings of work. He also posted rates of 4.53 BB/9 and 8.04 K/9. He’s bounced between the Majors and the minors in 2009 with an 8.16 ERA in six MLB games and a 1.75 ERA in five triple-A starts. His batting-average-allowed has jumped from .266 to .342 over the past year.

Relievers Brad Ziegler and Joey Devine were godsends for the Oakland bullpen in 2008 but 2009 has been a different story, especially for Devine. The former Braves prospect finally harnessed his pitches – a 2.96 BB/9 in 2008 compared to more than one walk allowed per inning in his previous three big-league attempts – and posted an ERA of just 0.59 (1.97 FIP). He also allowed just 23 hits in 45.2 innings of work. Unfortunately, Devine blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this season. Ziegler rose from obscurity to save 11 games in 2008 for Oakland, while also posting a 1.06 ERA in 59.2 innings. This season the groundball pitcher has been good but not great, in part due to a BABIP jump from .246 to .351. Left-handers are also hitting .367 against him.

Chris Davis burst upon the scene last season as young player with immense power. He hit .285/.331/.549 with 17 homers and 23 doubles in 295 at-bats while playing mostly third base. Davis, 23, also posted a strikeout rate of 29.8 K%. Fast-forward one season and the left-handed batter is now playing first base and hitting just .204/.261/.422 with 12 home runs in 206 at-bats. His strikeout rate has jumped to a disturbing 45.6 K%. Davis has also lost 6% off his line-drive rate, which is down to 19.6%, and his BABIP has gone from .353 to .300.

Brandon Boggs, 26, was called upon to fill a part-time role in 2008. The outfielder hit just .226/.333/.399 but he appeared in 101 games. His strikeout rate was a dismal 32.9 K%. He did, though, show some power potential with an ISO of .173. Boggs has spent the majority of 2009 in triple-A where his power has all but dried up as he has an ISO rate of just .086. He’s also hitting just .278/.405/.364 in 162 at-bats. Another part-time player, infielder German Duran hit .231/.275/.350 with three home runs in 143 at-bats in the Majors in 2008. This season, he’s battled injuries and is hitting just .149/.185/.207 in 87 triple-A at-bats.

David Murphy’s rookie season was not as noisy as Davis’, but Murphy has had a much more consistent career to this point. The 27-year-old outfielder posted a line of .275/.321/.465 with 15 homers in 415 at-bats in 2008. He also posted a walk rate of 7.0% and a strikeout rate of 16.9 K%. In 2009, Murphy’s power has dropped and he’s hitting .259/.344/.393 with three homers in 135 at-bats (including .167 vs southpaws). He’s seen his walk rate increase to 11.8 BB%, while his strikeout rate has also risen to 24.4 K%, which is not good considering his drop in power production (ISO from .190 to .133).

A former Braves prospect, 23-year-old Matt Harrison had a rough introduction to the big leagues in his rookie season in 2008. He posted a 5.49 ERA (5.18 FIP) and allowed 100 hits in 83.2 innings of work. Harrison’s walk rate was 3.33 BB/9 but he struck out just 4.52 K/9. In 2009, the southpaw has posted a 5.43 ERA (4.68 FIP) in 54.2 innings and he’s allowed 68 hits. His walk rate is down to 2.63 BB/9 and his strikeout rate is just 4.77 K/9. Opponents also has a healthy 23.3 LD% against Harrison.

Infielders Sean Rodriguez and Brandon Wood are both loaded with potential but they have had difficulties breaking into everyday roles in the Majors. Rodriguez, 24, has good pop for a middle infielder (.300+ ISO in parts of two triple-A seasons), but he projects as a big league utility player due to his contact issues (33.2 K% in 205 triple-A at-bats in 2009). Wood, on the other hand, has massive power potential for an infielder but he too has contact issues (26.8 K% in 2008). With 69 home runs during parts of three seasons in triple-A, Wood, 24, needs to opportunity to finally show once and for all if he has what it takes to play everyday in the Majors. He hit just .200/.224/.327 in 55 MLB games in 2008.

Jose Arredondo had a very successful year in 2008 giving hope that he would one day fill the closer’s role that Francisco Rodriguez departed from after last season. In 2008, Arredondo went 10-2 with a 1.62 ERA while allowing just 42 hits in 61 innings of work. He posted rates of 3.25 BB/9 and 8.11 K/9. The right-hander, though, did not make in through the month of June in 2009 before being demoted to the minors after posting a 5.55 ERA and allowing 28 hits in 24.1 innings of work.