Archive for Ryan Zimmerman

Over the holidays, Al Jazeera America released an explosive, undercover report on doping in professional sports. Included in the story were secretly recorded interviews with Charlie Sly, a pharmacist who boasted of having provided illegal performance enhancing drugs to numerous professional athletes.

Among the many athletes that Sly claimed to have supplied with PEDs were several baseball players, including Ryan Howard and Ryan Zimmerman. According to Sly, both players bought and used the drug Delta-2, a banned hormone supplement.

Initially, both Howard and Zimmerman issued a joint statement staunchly denying the allegations. The two have now gone one step further, each filing suit against Al Jazeera on Tuesday evening for defamation.

However, while filing suit may provide a boost to Howard and Zimmerman in the short-term in their public relations battle against the network, the players are incurring some degree of risk by initiating legal action, and ultimately appear unlikely to prevail in their respective cases.

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Ryan Zimmerman has been a bit of an offensive enigma in his young career, posting very solid numbers in his rookie campaign before taking steps backwards in seasons during which his age would call for improvements. After a .348 wOBA that almost earned him Rookie of the Year honors in 2006–some guy named Hanley Ramirez edged him out–Zimmerman has seen this same mark drop to .340 in 2007 and .336 last season. Though defensive ability has kept Zimmerman producing at a level well above the league average, his offensive decline had to be concerning for fans of the Nationals.

This season, however, Zimmerman got out of the gate quickly and is currently riding a 17-game hitting streak. Actually, he has gotten at least one hit in 18 of the 19 games played this season, only posting a donut in the hits column in the second game of the season. Entering last night’s game against the Phillies, Zimm’s +3.0 batting runs and +2.7 UZR had already bested his 2008 totals, combining for +0.9 wins. His wOBA stood at .379 with OBP and SLG marks closely resembling what most thought Zimmerman would reach by his third season.

In this 17-game hitting streak, Zimmerman is 23-73, with a .315/.383/.562 line. Entering the season, CHONE was more bullish on the third baseman than some of the other projection systems, calling for a .371 wOBA in 514 plate appearances. At .379 right now, CHONE basically sees Zimmerman capable of keeping up this level of performance in one way or another. The system projected his OBP/SLG to be around .364/.488 while the current numbers are .360/.526.

If his injuries have subsided, Zimmerman can continue to get on base at his current clip and his power does not regress too precipitously, there are very few reasons why he could not sustain a wOBA above .370. Coupled with solid defense in the +2 to +5 run range and we are talking about a +5 or more win player this season. Zimmerman, as Matthew recently noted, is definitely worth the money in his new extension and despite the small sample size comprising his performance this month, it is very exciting to see Zimmerman show signs of improving with the stick.

I took a drive down to D.C. to take in the Nationals-Phillies game last night with my family and, following two great fielding plays, was reminded just how much I like Ryan Zimmerman. Prior to this year I had spent seven years (age 15-21) as a freelance graphics coordinator for CN8 Sports, wherein my job consisted of supplying stats to the guy who generated the on-screen graphics amongst others. One of the perks was all of the minor league games requiring my services. One of these games, involving the AA Harrisburg Senators, always stuck out due to Zimmerman’s involvement.

The game took place in August 2005, only a couple of months after the Nationals drafted Ryan, and, in my best scouting impression, he just had that look about him. I’m not too sure what that means or tells us but he just seemed to have the body, raw skills, and makeup of a future major league star. He performed quite well that game and two weeks later found himself in the major leagues. I’ll never forget thinking how remarkable it was that he had gone from college kid to relatively successful major league player in the span of two and a half or so months.

In 20 September games back in 2005, Zimmerman produced a .397/.419/.569 line, built upon a laughably unsustainable .500 BABIP. The following year, his true rookie year, he finished behind Hanley Ramirez in Rookie of the Year voting but posted extremely impressive numbers. In 157 games of plus-defense at third base, Zimm hit .287/.351/.471, with 20 home runs and 47 doubles. Playing in RFK didn’t help his home run numbers but 47 doubles as a rookie? Come on, now…

His BABIP that season was a more earthbound .329 and given his young age, 21-22 years old, it was not too insane to think that this would merely serve as a stepping stone for much greener performance pastures. Last season, however, he didn’t pick up where he left off. While playing all 162 games he hit .266/.330/.458, with 24 home runs and 43 doubles. His grand total of homers and two-baggers remained the same, as did his walk and strikeout rates, but his lower .298 BABIP resulted in a drop of twenty points in his batting average and on-base percentage.

While those numbers might be good for others, I quite simply expected more from Zimmerman. Perhaps it was merely a sophomore slump, something he would shake off this year. I’m not so sure anymore. Though he has battled injuries this year, he entered last night’s game with a .259/.300/.414 slash line. He has seemingly traded in some line drives for grounders and currently has an even lower .284 BABIP. Plugging him into both of the in-season projection systems offers this:

Marcel: 16 2B, 7 HR, .285/.351/.472 over the remainder
Total: 28 2B, 15 HR, .271/.325/.442, and an OPS of .767

ZiPS: 10 2B, 6 HR, .283/.353/.500 over the remainder
Total: 22 2B, 14 HR, .268/.322/.446, and an OPS of .768

Should he stay true to his talent level, this season should not end too differently from last season; however, in my eyes, that is not necessarily a “good” thing considering that last season signified a drop in performance from his rookie season. Though a .768 OPS in an injury-shortened season and a .788 in his sophomore season aren’t extremely different from his .822 in 2005, he is yet to take that next step towards super-stardom. Granted it may be tough to do while in a Nationals uniform but right now I’m disappointed with his production. From anyone who follows the Nationals—which, by the way the stadium looked last night constitutes a small number of fans—is there anything you have noticed with regards to Zimmerman, either this year or last? Is it injuries having an effect or has he not truly improved at all?