Archive for Scott Olsen

While his moves didn’t exactly make Ken Rosenthal and Jon Heyman all hot under the collar, Pittsburgh Pirates GM Neal Huntington was busy at the Winter Meetings. Huntington and company selected infielder Josh Rodriguez with the first pick in the Rule V draft, acquired RHP Cesar Valdez to complete the Zach Duke deal, and signed outfielder Matt Diaz and RHP Kevin Correia to two-year free agent contracts. While the deal isn’t yet official, the Pirates have also reportedly come to terms with free agent lefty Scott Olsen on a one-year, $500,000 deal with a $4 million club option for the 2012 season. Olsen’s pact allows him to earn an additional $3 million in incentives based on starts made in ’11, according to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.

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Let’s play everyone’s favorite game – Guess That Stat-Line! The two pitching lines below are crude Marcel projections for 2009. See if you can notice any truly significant differences:

Player A: 4.39 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 3.32 BB/9, 6.35 K/9, Birthday on Jan. 12
Player B: 4.55 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 3.13 BB/9, 6.14 K/9, Birthday on Jan. 8

On one hand, Player A has an ERA 0.16 runs better per nine innings, while the other has an almost equal advantage in the FIP department. On the other hand, the ERA and FIP figures above are not all that impressive to begin with. Player A will strike out slightly more hitters, but walk more as well. Neither breaks the 2.0 K/BB barrier. So why bring these two somewhat average or below average projections to light?

Well, Player A was just traded by the Florida Marlins, and Player B is now rumored to be on their off-season shopping list. Yes, Player A = Scott Olsen, and Player B = Carl Pavano. Pavano last pitched for the Marlins in 2004, when he put together a very solid season: 31 GS, 222.1 innings with a 3.00 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 1.98 BB/9. His season was so good that Brian Cashman decided Pavano could serve as a key cog in the Yankees rotation for the next four seasons. In actuality, Carl made just 26 starts from 2005-08, surrendering 182 hits in 145.2 innings, complete with a 5.00 ERA and miniscule 4.63 K/9.

The 4.63 K/9 is generous, as well, given that the same metric fell to 3.18 in 2007 and 3.93 in 2008. In 7 starts this past season, Pavano didn’t even average 5.0 IP/gm with his 34.1 innings logged, and he walked more hitters than usual, evidenced by his 2.62 BB/9. Now, seven starts is too small of a sample size to use as a concrete predictor of future performance, but it is clear even from his 2005 season that Pavano has lost a whole lot of his ability to strike batters out. On top of that, he has gone from 91-92 mph to 88 mph.

Put everything together, and the Marlins are considering signing a 33-year old pitcher who cannot strike batters out, seems to be on the verge of walking more, who has also lost significant velocity on his fastball. Who did they just trade away? A 25-yr old pitcher who has lost the ability to strike batters out, is walking plenty, and who has lost velocity on his fastball. In case you’re missing my point here, they are considering bringing in the equivalent of what they just traded away, plus eight more years in age, who will likely cost more money.

This week’s salary dump by the Florida Marlins will definitely benefit the Washington Nationals. The trade sent established Major League players Josh Willingham, an outfielder, and Scott Olsen, a left-handed pitcher in need of an attitude adjustment, to Washington for three prospects. Yesterday, you read about Dave Cameron’s take on the Major Leaguers in the trade.

The three prospects obtained by Florida include: second baseman Emilio Bonifacio, infielder Jake Smolinski, and right-hander P.J. Dean. I’ll touch on Bonifacio with a little more depth tomorrow over at RotoGraphs, because he has the most potential of the three for regular playing time at the Major League level in 2009. Basically, he’s really fast, doesn’t walk enough and strikes out too much. He hit .243/.296/.337 in 169 MLB at-bats in 2008 at the age of 23.

Smolinski was a 2007 second round pick out of an Illinois high school. He was a shortstop in high school, played outfield in his pro debut and then spent 2008 at second base, where he failed to set the world on fire. The 19-year-old hit .306/.364/.408 with no home runs in 98 short-season at-bats in 2008. He also hit .261/.330/.402 with four home runs in 184 A-ball at-bats. He posted rates of 9.4 BB% and 17.9 K% at the higher level. His ISO increased from .102 in the short-season league to .141 in A-ball. Smolinski is your basic B-level prospect whose value could easily go way up or way down in 2009.

Dean is my favorite player in the deal. He is a young, projectable right-hander who currently throws 90-92 mph with room to grow. Dean also has a curveball with plus potential and a developing change-up. A 2007 seventh round pick out of high school, Dean has spent the past two seasons in short-season ball. In 2008, he posted a 1.57 ERA (but 3.40 FIP) with 26 hits allowed in 46 innings pitched. He also had rates of 3.13 BB/9 and 6.65 K/9. In two seasons totaling 77 innings, Dean has allowed just three home runs.

The trade between Florida and Washington will definitely favor the latter organization for at least the next three seasons. But if either Dean or Smolinski reaches his potential, it could swing back to Florida’s favor (at least until said player gets too expensive).