Archive for Shaun Marcum

Doug Melvin and the Milwaukee Brewers orchestrated one of the more controversial trades last winter, sending stud prospect Brett Lawrie to Toronto in return for right-hander Shaun Marcum.

Lots of people spent the off-season lamenting the move, especially since Lawrie exploded onto the big league scene last season with a .293/.373/.580 line in his first 43 games and Marcum imploded during the postseason with an unsightly 14.90 ERA in three playoff starts. That regret has seeped into the regular season. Lawrie has avoided a sophomore slump thus far — despite a significant decrease in power production — and is hitting .281/.311/.386. Brewers fans are left to wonder what could have been, as they watch their $36 million man, Aramis Ramirez, struggle at the plate with a .151/.220/.245 line to begin the season.

While Lawrie would certainly look good in a Brewers uniform for the next six seasons, Marcum’s overall production has largely been overlooked. Despite his postseason struggles, he compiled a 3.54 ERA for the Brew Crew in 2011 and held the starting rotation together last April when Yovani Gallardo struggled and Zack Greinke was on the disabled list. Not only that, but the Brewers wouldn’t have been able to nab Greinke last December without Marcum’s transaction preceding it. Greinke turned down a deal to Washington that would have included a $100 million contract extension because he wanted to play for a winner. Marcum’s acquisition symbolized the chance to win in Milwaukee — or at least a strong desire to win now from the organization — which is why Greinke approved a move to Milwaukee.

Fast forward to this season, and we find Marcum cruising along with a 3.79 ERA. Although that level of production is no longer above average in this new, decreased run environment, the 30-year-old has shown signs that he will continue to churn out quality starts this year and anchor the middle of the Brewers’ starting rotation.

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It has been reported that Brewers GM Doug Melvin is interested in signing two of his front-line pitchers, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, to contract extensions before they become free agents next off-season. This would be a big morale boost for a fanbase that will likely be going through Prince Fielder withdrawal this winter. If Fielder does leave, his $15.5 million salary coming off the books would certainly help create the flexibility to re-sign these two important parts of the organization. However, as with any long-term extension, there are plenty of risks to this plan, especially with Marcum.

Marcum was acquired from the Blue Jays in December 2010 as part of the Brewers’ “go all in for 2011” plan. He had a solid first season in Milwaukee, pitching 200.2 innings with a 3.73 FIP, both career bests. These numbers earned him 2.7 WAR, which due to the league switch and the decline in offense in 2011, was actually 0.9 WAR worse than his 2010 campaign with the Jays.

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Tonight happens today, on this edition of One Night Only.

Kansas City at Toronto, 1:05 pm ET
Royals: Zack Greinke (R)
17.2 IP, 7.13 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, .334 BABIP, 41.4% GB, 7.7% HR?FB, 4.78 xFIP
Projected FIP: 2.85 (FAN) 2.98 (CHONE) 2.93 (ZiPS)
L-R Splits: 0.02 run normal split in 905.2 IP

Blue Jays: Shaun Marcum (R)
20.0 IP, 7.65 K/9, 1.35 BB/9, .276 BABIP, 43.1% GB, 9.5% HR/FB, 3.33 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 4.43 (CHONE) 4.47 (ZiPS)
L-R Splits: 0.45 run normal split in 416.2 IP

Making his return from Tommy John surgery, Shaun Marcum has started the season better than even the smartest person in the world (i.e. Tavis Smiley) could’ve guessed. So far on the season he’s throwing his changepiece a quarter of the time and has registered a full 33% whiff rate on the pitch. That’s what we in the industry call “off the hook.”

You know what Carson Cistulli likes? (I mean, besides the ladies?) Answer: career minor leaguers getting their first real shot at the bigs. If you haven’t already, say hello to 29-year-old Mike McCoy. Here’s an interesting thing McCoy did in 2009 at Colorado’s Triple-A affiliate: slashed .307/.405/.400. Here’s another interesting thing he did: went 40-for-46 on stolen base attempts in 132 games. Before we all go peeing each other’s pants with excitement, it’s important to note that Colorado Springs (where McCoy plied his trade last year) has a park factor of right around a million*. But his profile suggests that he won’t be the terriblest player on the block, and CHONE thinks he plays a league-average short.

*Give or take.

If you’re like me, you have amazing hair and flawless skin. You also have a notion that Edwin Encarnacion might have a decent year, if and when he recovers from his current shoulder situation. In 2009, over stints with both Cincy and Toronto, Encarnacion suffered the baleful effects of a .245 BABIP. That number stands far below the .295 mark he’d posted over his career till then. Is he still kinda a sucky defender? Almost definitely, yes. But what in the H does my fantasy team care about that?

Fred Lewis is a lightning rod for nerd controversy. He’s also a Blue Jay now, and has batted leadoff and played left field for the past three games. When the aforementioned Encarnacion returns to third, Jose Bautista will stop playing there and the outfield situation will get crowdeder. How will this drama unfold?

For those who read the title and thought this post had something to do with food, I apologize, it does not. Instead, the spread I speak of refers to the pitch distribution in the Toronto Blue Jays starting rotation. Last month, when writing about Shaun Marcum’s hot start, some loyal readers commented that he was one of very few pitchers that threw five different pitches at least 10% of the time. Trying to verify this assertion I discovered that were only two other pitchers that fit this bill: Adam Eaton and Andy Sonnanstine.

It was recently revealed to me that Jesse Litsch joined the 5/~10% club. Catchy title, eh? I named it myself.

Now, not many starting pitchers throw even four different pitches at least 9-10% of the time and the Blue Jays have three of them: Dustin McGowan (4), Jesse Litsch (5), and Shaun Marcum (5). Group the three of them with the steady three-pitch mix of Roy Halladay and the fastball-curveball combo of A.J. Burnett and you have one extremely solid rotation.

Here are their pitch distributions, with velocity/frequency:

Roy Halladay: FA 92.7/45.9, CT 90.5/25.0, CB 78.2/23.6
A.J. Burnett: FA 94.1/66.2, CB 80.5/26.4
Dustin McGowan: FA 95.1/59.2, SL 87.6/19.3, CB 81.4/11.3, CH 86.7/10.1
Jesse Litsch: FA 88.8/17.7, SL 82.2/22.9, CT 85.0/37.5, CB 76.8/12.9, CH 80.0/9.0
Shaun Marcum: FA 86.8/39.0, SL 81.4/15.5, CT 84.5/14.0, CB 74.8/10.0, CH 80.9/21.5

Not only does this rotation mix their pitches effectively but their speeds as well; McGowan’s changeup is the same speed as Marcum’s fastball. Lastly, take a look at their stats:

Roy Halladay: 3.01 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 5 CG, 12 BB, 72 K, 1.51 WPA
A.J. Burnett: 4.14 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 33 BB, 71 K, 0.17 WPA
Dustin McGowan: 3.95 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 28 BB, 55 K, 0.72 WPA
Jesse Litsch: 3.05 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9 BB, 33 K, 0.80 WPA
Shaun Marcum: 2.63 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 22 BB, 67 K, 1.89 WPA

Their “worst” ERA is 4.14 and just one WHIP is over 1.40. Overall, the rotation has contributed 5.09 wins while being a steady and major factor in the success of the team. Perhaps their pitching coach has preached different spreads in order to, as a rotation, keep teams off kilter; whatever it is, though, it definitely seems to be working.

Entering the season the Blue Jays felt that, with even a little run support, their starting pitching could do wonders to help propel them to victory. Roy Halladay has been a top-tier pitcher for a while now, even garnering compliments from President Bush; AJ Burnett is a flamethrower who has steadily produced over the last few years; and young Dustin McGowan looks poised to build on the success he experienced last year.

While most teams would kill to have three #1 or #2 starters at the front of their rotation, the Blue Jays actually have a fourth guy that, early into this season, has arguably contributed more to his team than all but two starting pitchers in the entire sport.

Shaun Marcum ranks third in WPA amongst all starting pitchers at 1.86, and has allowed just 30 hits in 56.2 innings of work.

Since becoming a starter in early May of last year, Marcum has posted the following numbers:

2007: 25 GS, 11-4, 142.2 IP, 43 BB, 100 K, 3.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
2008: 8 GS, 4-2, 56.2 IP, 16 BB, 49 K, 2.22 ERA, 0.81 WHIP

When put together it looks like a very solid, Cy Young Award contending full season:

33 GS, 15-6, 199.1 IP, 59 BB, 149 K, 3.43 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

Marcum is holding opponents to a .151/.217/.281 slash line and has left 80% of runners on base. His BABIP of .184 has been better than his .266 xBABIP, so this slash line is not very likely to keep up but he has definitely made his mark as a top-of-the-line #4 starter; especially considering there are some teams on which he would be a #2 starter.

An interesting note about Marcum’s success is his lack of fastball usage. Of non-Tim Wakefield starters, only four pitchers use their fastball less often; he throws it just 38% of the time. In fact, rotation-mates Jesse Litsch and Halladay come in at #2 and #9 in that same category.

Perhaps this vast repertoire of pitch selection and frequency helps provide the Blue Jays with one of the top rotations in the game. Either way, Marcum should not be overlooked as an up and coming and effective starter, regardless of how well his rotation-mates perform.

Following an Alex Rios lineout and an Aaron Hill strikeout, Mark Buehrle induced a grounder to third off the bat of Scott Rolen that should have ended the inning. A throwing error, ground-rule double, and single up the middle later, Buehrle found himself the victim of two unearned runs. He struck out Lyle Overbay to end the inning but the Blue Jays ultimately had all the run support they would need.

Despite posting a complete game line of 8 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, Buehrle suffered the loss; the committee of Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson, Shawn Camp, and Scott Downs collaborated on a two-hit shutout.

Buehrle threw exactly 100 pitches and 74 of them were strikes. Ironically, ten of those 26 balls came on the first pitch to batters. Here is his pitch breakdown:

• Fastball: 45, 87.8 mph
• Curve: 7, 72.4 mph
• Slider: 27, 83.5 mph
• Changeup: 21, 79.4 mph

Nobody swung and missed at his fastball though his slider proved difficult to make solid contact with; the White Sox fouled off nine of them and flat out missed six. Here are location charts showing where he threw his slider to righties and lefties:

While he tried to stay inside with the slider when facing lefties, he challenged righties in the zone more often with this offspeed pitch.

Facing a total of 29 batters, Buehrle threw a first pitch strike 16 times; ten of the first pitches were balls and another three were put in play. Unlike Matt Cain, who essentially throws a fastball to start every hitter, Buehrle started the White Sox offense with 18 fastballs and 11 breaking balls. With an 0-1 count Buehrle threw just two fastballs out of his 16 total pitches; with a 1-2 count he primarily threw changeups; on a 3-2 count he did not rely on his fastball, throwing two sliders and a changeup out of five pitches. Normally I would show this data in graphical or chart form but, when dealing with just one start, it would suggest patterns and tendencies that just cannot be determined with such a small sample.

Buehrle did not have an easily identifiable “out-pitch” last night as, with two strikes, he threw 13 fastballs, 2 curves, 7 sliders, and 8 changeups.

The aspect of pitch data that fascinates me most right now is sequencing: What does a pitcher throw after a certain pitch? Buehrle threw very few pitches to lefties but, against righties it becomes clear that he successfully mixed up his pitches.

When throwing his changeup to righties he definitely relied on additional offspeed pitches to accompany it rather than mixing speeds by throwing a fastball. In fact, there were six different plate appearances in which Buehrle threw three consecutive offspeed pitches. Never one to waste time on the mound, his quick work and mix of pitches and speeds successfully kept the Blue Jays off balance. Though his overall numbers suffer from an atrocious opening day start, Buehrle will have to pitch like this much more often for the White Sox to avoid the label of “pretender” and be in the race all year.