Archive for Shawn Hill

With the regular season inching closer by the day, teams are beginning to get a better feel for which bubble players are going to make the big league squad. As a byproduct, those squeezed out of the bubble are being released by their now previous employers. Two players cut in somewhat questionable fashion were Shawn Hill of the Nationals and Jimmy Gobble of the Royals. Both players apparently still look appealing to the league, as Hill is expected to sign a minor league deal with the Blue Jays immediately upon clearing waivers while Gobble is going to sign a minor league deal with the Rangers.

JP Ricciardi aptly compared Hill’s status to the team with that of Wade Miller’s, which makes sense given that both pitchers have shown spurts of effectiveness marred by longer periods of injury. With Miller, Hill, and Clement in camp, Ricciardi is essentially throwing darts while wearing a blindfold and hoping that one sticks somewhere on the board. If all three work out, great, but the moves are so low risk as to not adversely affect the team if they prove to be busts.

Hill’s modus operandi, as discussed last week, is fairly well known: he has a tremendous sinker, a career FIP just over 4.00, but a health history that would elicit chuckles from Chris Snelling. Hill has missed an entire season due to injuries, as well as large portions of other seasons, making just 37 starts over the last five calendar years. His 2007 season produced +1.5 wins in just 16 starts, but that figure actually happens to be the highest number of starts he has made in a single season.

Gobble was a once promising prospect in the Royals organization, a lefty who, along with fellow southpaw Jeremy Affeldt, would lead the team out of the cellar. His first two seasons did not necessarily go as planned, producing a combined +1.8 wins, with an abysmal 2.98 K/9 in 2004. The next season, Gobble primarily pitched out of the bullpen, and despite seeing a strikeout rate rise to 6.37, his control imploded, a fact made apparent by a 5.03 BB/9.

In 2006, Gobble quit relying on his fastball as much, incorporated a healthier dose of breaking balls, and saw his FIP improve significantly to the tune of 4.17. His strikeout rate soared above 8.5 while the control issues subsided resulting in a BB/9 of 3.11. Of course, since relievers accrue such small samples of playing time, their efforts are largely wasted in the win values column, but Gobble’s +1.1 wins in just 84 innings speaks volumes to his effectiveness. He followed that successful campaign up with another solid season in 2007, sustaining his FIP and experiencing minimal dropoffs in his strikeout and walk rates. Gobble stranded runners much better as well, posting just a 3.02 ERA.

Then, last season happened. Gobble’s strikeout rate fell to 7.7, which might not have been as bad if not for a revived implosion of control, with a walk rate well over six per nine innings. In just 31.2 innings, Gobble posted an 8.81 ERA, 5.85 FIP, and -0.3 wins. CHONE sees Gobble capable of repeating his 2007 campaign, which would likely be good for +0.3 to +0.6 wins. Even when struggling, Gobble still dominated lefties over the past two seasons, and if he retains this ability, the Rangers just found themselves a solid reliever.

Neither Hill nor Gobble could end up making their respective squads, but Ricciardi and Daniels have done a good job at identifying potential bargains by bringing these two aboard.

This post deserves to be read in tandem with my thoughts on the Joe Beimel signing, because in order to make room for the lefty reliever on their roster, the Nationals decided to part ways with starter Shawn Hill. My thoughts on the matter took a couple of detours, beginning with “Huh!?” before swinging a right turn down the road of “Oh, well he’s very injury prone,” eventually ending up right back at “Huh!?” See, if the team in question were the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Rays, Cubs, etc, releasing Hill in favor of a better option would be a feasible solution. After all, he has proven himself incapable thus far of remaining healthy, but this is the Nationals.

Upon learning of the move, Dave even remarked that he should move the Nats down to spot #31 on his organizational rankings… which doesn’t make sense because there are only 30 teams in the…. oh, now I get it!

Hill is 27 yrs old, throws a menacing sinker, sports a 1.75 career groundball to flyball ratio, and boasts a very solid 4.11 FIP. The issue of course is that these impressive numbers have only been seen in 37 starts over four seasons. Hill’s most impressive season came in 2007, when he made 16 starts with a 3.42 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and 2.60 K/BB. In half of a season the Canadian-born righty produced +1.5 wins. Extrapolate that sort of production, even with a bit of regression tossed in, and Hill’s season could have been worth just under +3 wins added, a very nice total.

With Hill out of the mix, the Nationals will turn to John Lannan and Scott Olsen to head their rotation; they will hope and pray that Daniel Cabrera finally harnesses his raw talent; and they will delegate fourth and fifth starter responsibilities between Jordan Zimmerman, Collin Balester (took two tries to get the correct “L” alignment), and Shairon Martis.

The Nationals unloaded injury-prone starter John Patterson last season, who then went onto retire. Whether Hill takes the same road is yet to be seen (sheesh, a lot of street/road metaphors here) but the Nationals and GM Mike Rizzo better hope that one or more of Zimm/Balester/Martis pans out, especially given Hill’s self-assessment that his arm felt good after his most recent outing.

One interesting aspect of Hill to take note of is his screwy mechanics. I vividly recall former Phillies TV color commentator Larry Andersen remarking that Hill’s front foot plants itself way before his hand reaches his ear, meaning that the righty is basically throwing with all arm. Such a windup may lead to extra sink on the ball, as several scouts have remarked, but it also carries a high injury risk, as we have already seen. Shawn Hill deserves to be on a team somewhere as he is too talented to not be employed, but someone needs to tinker with his mechanics in order to keep him on the field.

Otherwise, Hill will be just another pitcher who showed spurts of brilliance but could not stay on the field to showcase his abilities.

As it came time for this season’s action, two pitchers I had my eyes on were Dustin McGowan of the Blue Jays and Shawn Hill of the Nationals. Both had displayed the ability to succeed in the major leagues in 2007, showed very solid controllable skills, and looked poised to take the next step in 2008. Hill’s 2007 was by no means reminiscent of Pedro circa 1999-2000, but he posted a 3.42 ERA, a 4.03 FIP, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 2.60 K/BB. Via WPA/LI, Hill was worth right around one win above an average pitcher, despite making just 19 starts.

This year he was plagued with injuries right from the get-go, missing time due to a strained right forearm, then right elbow tightness, and finally right forearm tightness, an injury serious enough to keep him out of action from June 25 until the end of the season. In the time he did toe the rubber, he posted a 5.83 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a -1.18 WPA/LI, making him worth over a win less than an average starting pitcher. Fortunately, these numbers do not tell the whole story, as his BABIP was an otherworldly .373, and his strand rate was way below average because of this, at just 62%. Looking solely at his controllable skills, Hill’s FIP was 4.06, virtually identical to last year’s.

If the problems were due to the injuries, and the time off can help get him back on track, great, however he is very likely going to be on injury watch the rest of his career. I can remember watching Mitch Williams break down Hill’s mechanics before, and with Hill’s windup, his legs are planted while his arm still has its ways to go. This means he is basically throwing with all arm, which is an injury just waiting to happen. Williams proposed Hill alter his windup or else his career is going to consist of solid 16-start seasons with the other time spent rehabbing or on the disabled list.

McGowan, last year, posted a 4.08 ERA, a 3.73 FIP, a 2.36 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP, and was worth 1.5 wins above an average pitcher via WPA/LI. His 68% strand rate was below the league average but his BABIP was somewhat significantly better than the rest of the league. Entering this season, he was being counted on to be the key third member of what could be the best rotation in baseball. His numbers were not as “poor” as Hill’s, but did not signal a step forward by any means. His 3.81 FIP, very similar to last year’s, suggests his 4.37 ERA was too high, and his .316 BABIP led to a higher WHIP of 1.37. Since his strand rate remained the same, the increase in BABIP led to more baserunners who came around to score. His K/BB dropped a bit, but only from 2.36 to 2.24.

Dustin was previously diagnosed with a rotator cuff tear before it was decided he would need to undergo surgery to repair fraying in the glenoid labrum of his right shoulder. From what I have gathered, pitchers tend to resume mound throwing around seven months following such a surgery, though the rehab time could be longer. Additionally, if he experiences a problem with his rotator cuff again, he could miss the entire 2009 season. The Blue Jays expect him to be back in action in May, however. Injuries prevented both of these potential stars from taking the next step this year, so we will have another year of wondering what if, but next year will definitely be pivotal in understanding where they might be headed.