Archive for stephen strasburg

General Manager: Mike Rizzo
Farm Director: Doug Harris
Scouting Director: Kris Kline

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included*)

The depth is still lacking in the Nationals system, but the good news is that the club is starting to collect some prospects with higher ceilings, led (of course) by Stephen Strasburg. Fellow ’09 draft pick Drew Storen is another pitcher to keep an eye on, as he could be in Washington by mid-season.

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, College*
DOB: July 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2009 1st round – San Diego State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 92-98 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Yes, I am stepping away from my self-imposed restriction of not ranking 2009 draft picks. I’m sure you can understand why with Strasburg, who is by far the best prospect in the entire system, if not all of baseball. Statistically-speaking, there is little to go on with the big right-hander. He made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League and allowed 15 hits in 19.0 innings, while punching out 23 and walking seven. He also produced a crazy number of ground-ball outs. Of the five starts that he made, he allowed more than one run just once (eight in 2.2 innings). There is some thought that Strasburg could step right into the Nationals rotation at the beginning of 2010, but he’s likely due for some minor-league seasoning in double-A.

2. Derek Norris, C, Low-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 4th round – Kansas HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Norris had a breakout season and is now one of the best catching prospects in all of baseball. Playing in low-A ball, the right-handed catcher hit .286/.413/.513 in 437 at-bats. His triple-slash line was aided by a .342 BABIP, which is rather high for a catcher – but Norris has better legs than most at his position (as seen by his 29 stolen bases attempts in two seasons). He showed excellent power with an ISO rate of .227, which helps justify (to a degree) the 26.5% strikeout rate. Norris showed exceptional patience at the plate with a walk rate of 16.7%. Defensively, he threw out 36% of base-stealers, but he allowed 28 passed balls.

3. Ian Desmond, SS, Majors
DOB: September 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 3rd round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

It’s taken Desmond a few years to navigate the minor-league waters but he appears ready to assume the full-time shortstop gig for the Nationals. The club is confident in the young infielder to the point where it is planning to move veteran Cristian Guzman to second base. Desmond began the year in double-A and hit .306/.372/.494 in 170 at-bats. He showed good power with an ISO rate of .188 but his strikeout rate was a tad high at 23.5%. That rate came down to 17.4% in 178 triple-A at-bats, but his power diminished to an ISO rate of .107. Overall, Desmond stole 21 bases in 26 attempts. Promoted to the Majors, he hit .280/.318/.561 in 82 at-bats. The 24-year-old shortstop should produce at a league-averag clip in 2010, at the very least.

4. Danny Espinosa, SS, High-A
DOB: April 1987 Bats: S Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Long Beach State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

If Desmond’s development suddenly goes south, the organization also has Espinosa waiting in the wings. He looks quite different than the player of the same name at Long Beach State University, who never topped more than seven homers (in 210 at-bats) and was considered a line-drive hitter. Taking to the wood, though, has been good for Espinosa. His aggressive approach has remain consistent, though, and he has produced a high strikeout rate in pro ball (27.2%) and he did not hit for much average in ’09 with a triple-slash line of .264/.375/.460 in 474 high-A at-bats. With 29 steals in 40 tries, Espinosa could develop into a 20-20 threat if his power output (.196 ISO, 18 homers) is for real. He’s beginning to look a little bit like Toronto’s Aaron Hill, but with more speed. Defensively, Espinosa has a strong arm and solid range at shortstop.

5. Chris Marrero, 1B, Double-A
DOB: July 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It’s been a long, slow climb through the system for this former No. 1 draft pick. Marrero was stuck in high-A ball for three seasons but he finally received a taste of double-A (23 games) in ’09. At the lower level, he hit .287/.360/.464 in 414 at-bats. He has yet to show consistent power and his ISO rate was .176 before it dropped to .120 with his promotion. His strikeout rate (23.4%) and walk rate (9.0%) both remained almost identical despite the move. Marrero is a below-average fielder at first base so he needs to tap into his raw power more consistently if he’s going to be an everyday player at the MLB level. Just 21, he’ll return to double-A for the 2010 season.

6. Michael Burgess, OF, High-A
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A move from low-A in ’08 to high-A in ’09 saw Burgess’ OPS drop from .804 to .735. He also lost some pop in his bat as his ISO rate slipped from .219 to .175. Although his walk rates (9.9%) were almost identical and strikeout rate of 28.1% was actually an improvement over ’08’s 33.9%, Burgess’ numbers took a dive in part due to a .288 BABIP (down from .331 in ’08). The stocky outfielder hit .235/.325/.410 in 480 at-bats in ’09, and he’s going to continue to struggle to hit for a high average until he gets his strikeout rate under control. He attempted 20 steals and was caught eight times. Defensively, he has a very strong arm and is a good fielding right-fielder.

7. Bradley Meyers, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 5th round – Loyola Marymount University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

A little-known pitcher entering ’09, Meyers had a solid year and looks poised to help the Nationals club in 2010, if needed. The right-hander has good size for a pitcher and an average repertoire that plays up due to his good control (2.10 BB/9 in ’09). Meyers began the year in high-A and allowed 71 hits with a 2.72 FIP in 88.1 innings of work. He allowed just one home run thanks to a 51% ground-ball rate. Moved up to double-A, he posted a 2.76 FIP and gave up 40 hits in 48.0 innings. His strikeout rate also jumped from 6.62 to 8.06 K/9. Meyers allowed just two homers at the senior level, although his ground-ball rate dipped to 40%. Pitching depth remains a weakness in the organization, so Meyers could definitely see time in the Majors in 2010 if he continues to pitch well.

8. Aaron Thompson, LHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 1st round – Texas HS (Florida)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-91 fastball, plus change-up, curveball, slider

Thompson, like Meyers, does not have a huge ceiling but they both project as useful big-league arms. This former supplemental first round pick was obtained from Florida last season for first baseman Nick Johnson and he posted solid numbers after changing addresses. Thompson pitched 114.0 innings for the Marlins’ double-A squad and he allowed 121 hits, while posting a walk rate of 3.39 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.92 K/9. After the trade, the southpaw saw his rates improve to 3.03 BB/9 and 7.44 K/9. He also allowed 32 hits in 32.2 innings. Thompson clearly needs to find a way to cut down on the hits allowed and he’s been incredibly unlucky throughout his career when it comes to his LOB% rate, which was 65% in ’09.

9. Destin Hood, OF, Short-Season
DOB: April 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Alabama HS
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A prep football star, the organization swayed Hood away from an Auburn University football scholarship with an above-slot contract in 2008. The outfielder remains raw but he continues to show flashes of developing into a solid baseball player. He hit well in a brief stint in rookie ball (.330/.388/.614 in 88 at-bats) before moving up to short-season ball, where his numbers dipped a bit. At the upper level, Hood hit .246/.302/.333 in 138 despite a .352 BABIP. His strikeout rate was a disturbingly-high 32.6% and he did not produce the power numbers (.087 ISO) to help justify such a large number. Hood does not have much speed, so he’s not a stolen-base threat and he’s very raw defensive. He should move up to low-A ball for the 2010 season.

10. Eury Perez, OF, Rookie
DOB: May 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Perez certainly does not have the pedigree of some of the other bigger-named (and bigger $$$) Latin signings in the past few years. With that said, he burst onto the baseball landscape with authority in ’09 by hitting .381/.443/.503 in 181 at-bats. The high slugging percentage is likely a figment of the small-sample size and level of competition, as Perez has a small frame and is built more for speed (16 steals in 24 tries) and his ISO rate was just .122. The outfielder showed a pretty good approach at the plate for his age, with a walk rate of 7.3% and a strikeout rate of just 11.0%. His high batting average, though, was the result of a crazy .418 BABIP. Because he has a pretty good idea at the plate, and he buys into the strengths of his game (59% ground-ball rate), Perez – although very raw – has the chance to develop into a solid top-of-the-order hitter.

Up Next: The AL/NL East Recap

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next week, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Today, we’re kicking things off with the Phoenix Desert Dogs, a team that has won the AFL championship title for each of the past five seasons. The club is still waiting for the Toronto and Oakland organizations to assign multiple pitchers to the club.

The Phoenix Desert Dogs (Click HERE for the entire roster)
Oakland, Toronto, Baltimore, Washington, Tampa Bay

Brandon Erbe | RHP | Baltimore
Lost behind the big three of Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta in Baltimore, Erbe has the raw stuff to match up with them. Still only 21 years of age, Erbe battled through injuries this year and missed two month of the ’09 season. Even so, he has allowed just 38 hits in 60 innings of work in double-A.

Heath Rollins | RHP | Tampa Bay
Another pitcher who gets lost amongst the “big names,” Rollins has put up some solid pro numbers. He slipped a bit this year in double-A and has been too hittable: 147 hits in 134 innings of work. The right-hander has also lost 2.7 K/9 off of his strikeout rate, although he’s maintained a solid walk rate at 2.23 BB/9. He looks like a middle reliever.

Stephen Strasburg | RHP | Washington
The man everyone wants to see will be making his pro debut with the desert dogs and you can pretty much guarantee that there will be a lot of eyes on his first start. Despite his inexperience, Strasburg could dominate the league… but he’ll also be under a lot of pressure.

Drew Storen | RHP | Washington
The Nationals’ other first-round pick in 2009, Storen has already made 26 appearances in pro ball. Hopefully he won’t see too many innings in the league as he’s already thrown 77.1 innings (college+minors), which is a higher workload than he’s ever had in any other season. His control has been off a bit in eight double-A appearances but Storen is almost MLB ready.

J.P. Arencibia | C | Toronto
Arencibia ended the 2008 season as one of the Jays’ brightest young stars, but things have gone horribly for him in 2009 despite playing in a park (and league) that favors hitters immensely. At fault is Arencibia’s terrible walk rate and hack-tastic approach (2.6 BB% in ’08, 5.3 BB% in ’09), as well as his unwillingness to change. On the plus side, he’s made himself into a very good defensive player, which was a knock against him coming out of college.

Derek Norris | C | Washington
While Arencibia’s star is down, Norris’ is way up. Only 20, he’s shown a nice well-rounded approach with a solid average (.288), good power (23 homers in 423 at-bats, .229 ISO) and a walk rate of 16.1 BB%. The strikeouts are there too (26.8 K%) but the power is a fair trade off. The sky is the limit for Norris, although he may be tired for the AFL after hitting just .169 in August, which is by far his worst month of the year.

Josh Bell | 3B | Baltimore
Acquired earlier this season from the Dodgers, Bell has had a breakout season and could be manning the hot corner for Baltimore everyday by mid-2010. He has a solid understanding of the strike zone, as well as raw power (.250 ISO). Defensively, he has a strong arm, but a slow first step.

Jemile Weeks | 2B | Oakland
Rickie Weeks‘ brother is looking to make a name for himself. The second baseman missed the beginning of the year with an injury but he caught on fire as soon as he was able to take the field. His numbers have been down significantly since a promotion to double-A, but it only spans 72 at-bats. Weeks has yet to utilize his plus speed, but he’s shown more power than expected.

Grant Desme | OF | Oakland
Speaking of power, Desme has made the most of his opportunity to play this year after injuries limited him to just two games in 2008. The former second round draft pick has really opened some eyes by hitting 31 homers and stealing 40 bases between low-A and high-A. The 23-year-old outfielder also swings and misses a lot (30 K%).

For all of Bud Selig’s efforts to strong-arm owners into signing draft picks to slot recommendations, it is painfully obvious to anyone paying attention to the game of baseball that this system is woefully broken. Every year, it’s the same thing. A good chunk of the draft class has to while away time rather than playing baseball before Bud will allow ownership the freedom to do whatever the heck they want. Development time is lost; recommendations go completely ignored and the amount of bonuses getting handed out goes up instead of down. It’s completely counterproductive on both sides.

While players are waiting to sign, plenty of rumblings go out on what different player’s asking prices are, and threats are issued of going to play at college or the independent leagues are made if demands are not met. Players and agents are vilified as selfish little punks. The general feeling seems to be that draft picks need to prove something before they get paid, and that handing out big dollars to a player who hasn’t done anything in the big leagues is a huge waste of resources. After all, even first round draft picks bust all the time. But are they really overpaid?

I’ve gone back and researched the draft from the past decade, similarly to what Victor Wang has done, only using WAR. In my research I’ve listed out the total WAR for each first round draft pick during their cost-controlled years to see what sort of surplus value they have. We’ll say a win on the free agent market is worth today’s rate, $4.4 million. I know we’re looking at six years, so just forget inflation for a moment. The picks were worth –

• Picks 1 though 5 on average gave their teams $32M of production.
• Picks 6 through 10, $22.4M
• 11-15, $17.6M
• 16-20, $18.9M
• 21-30 $6.6M

That’s a lot of surplus value. Even with the relatively high failure rate, first round draft picks are incredibly valuable and actually have proven to be quite a bargain. For example, recommended slot for the first overall pick is this year was $3.6M. While it’s only a group of ten players, 1st overall picks from ’90-’99 produced on average $51.5 million worth of value that a team would normally pay for on the free agent market, or about roughly 14 times today’s recommended bonus!

Even with his record deal, Stephen Strasburg is a great value. If you don’t think so, just imagine the bidding war that would go on between large market teams if he were a free agent. Dump the slots. Let teams do whatever they want. If they can’t do their homework on what a kid’s asking price is before the draft him, that’s their own failure.

Well, everyone thought the Washington Nationals organization would end up as the biggest loser after the dust settled on Draft Deadline Day, but that wasn’t the case. No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg agreed to a Major League deal for more than $15 million. Three other teams, though, had far worse days than Washington.

1. The Texas Rangers

After looking long and hard at fellow Texas prep pitcher Shelby Miller, the Rangers organization decided on Matt Purke with its 14th-overall pick. His 90-95 mph fastball and good slider were certainly enticing but it was known at the time that he could very well be a harder sign. While Miller spurned Texas A&M for the Cardinals (and $2.8 million), Purke will head off to Texas Christian where he will be eligible for the 2011 draft as a draft-eligible sophomore.

The organization also has yet to sign supplemental first round pick Tanner Scheppers, who spent the 2009 season pitching for an independent baseball league after choosing not to return to Fresno State University for his senior year, after failing to sign with the Pirates as a second-round pick in the 2008 draft. Scheppers, though, is not subject to the deadline, so the club can still sign him.

The Rangers did come to terms with four players on over-slot deals: right-handed pitchers Shawn Blackwell (Texas HS, 24th round), Nick McBride (North Carolina HS, 5th rnd), left-hander Paul Strong (California HS, 17th rnd), and outfielder Riley Cooper (University of Florida, 25th rnd). Unfortunately, the collection of signees does not come even close to replacing Purke.

Texas has one of the best minor league systems in all of baseball, but it has already graduated Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus, and Taylor Teagarden. Neftali Feliz and Julio Borbon are not far behind, so the system is emptying quickly.

2. The Toronto Blue Jays

When Toronto lost A.J. Burnett to the Yankees, it stung. When the club failed miserably in 2009, it hurt. When general manager J.P. Ricciardi tried to (unsuccessfully) trade Roy Halladay – the face of the franchise – it infuriated fans. Now the minor league system is floundering yet again under Ricciardi (every affiliate is at or near the bottom of the standings and numerous top prospects have taken sizable steps backward this season).

Help was supposed to be on the way for the minor league system, and for the future of the franchise. With five selections in the first three rounds of the draft, it gave hope to fans… something small to cling to. However, when the clock struck midnight on Monday night, the team had failed to sign its supplemental first round pick (James Paxton, LHP), its second-round pick (Jake Eliopoulos, LHP) and its third-round pick (Jake Barrett, RHP). Making matters worse is that both Paxton and Eliopoulos were Canadian pitchers.

A quick visit to some of the fan sites, like Battersbox.ca, tells you exactly how the hardcore fan base feels. On a small positive note, the club did hand out over-draft deals to right-handers Daniel Webb (Florida JC, 18th round), Andrew Hutchinson (Florida HS, 15th rnd), and outfielder K.C. Hobson (California HS, 6th rnd). The club also signed its second third-round pick in Jake Marisnick (California HS).

3. The Tampa Bay Rays

It’s never a fun time when you get in bed with “super agent” Scott Boras and Tampa Bay learned that first-handed after failing to come to terms with first-round pick LeVon Washington, who was a fringe first-round pick to begin with. The second baseman (who is expected to move to the outfield in pro ball) has a lot of speed, but his arm is just about as weak as it can get. The Florida native will head to the University of Florida.

The club also lost second-round pick and shortstop Kenny Diekroeger, whose strong commitment to Stanford was known prior to the draft. The club was able to sign catcher Luke Bailey, who dropped out of first-round consideration after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the spring. He was committed to Auburn University but spurned the school for $750,000. The organization also gave significant over-slot deals to first baseman Jeff Malm (Las Vegas HS, 5th round), and left-handed pitcher Kevin James (Wisconsin HS, 9th rnd).

The moment we have all been waiting for is almost here. The 2009 MLB Amateur Draft will begin on Tuesday, June 9 at 6 pm Eastern time with the first round airing live on the MLB Network. MLB.com will be streaming the first three rounds of the draft (plus the supplemental rounds), all of which will occur on June 9. The remainder of the draft (the other 47 rounds) will be spread out over the following two days (June 10 and 11).

In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays selected Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham with the first overall pick. Pittsburgh took Vanderbilt University third baseman Pedro Alvarez with the second selection, followed by Kansas City, which nabbed Florida prep first baseman Eric Hosmer.

The Washington Nationals organization has the first overall pick and is expected to take San Diego State right-hander Stephen Strasburg, the consensus best player available. University of North Carolina outfielder Dustin Ackley is expected to go second overall to Seattle. After that, things get murky. The Philadelphia Phillies will be the last organization to pick in the draft when it makes the 75th selection. The club gave its first-round pick (27th overall) to Seattle when it signed free agent outfielder Raul Ibanez, which has turned out pretty good for Philadelphia, so far.

For more than a month now, Fangraphs.com has been reviewing each teams past three drafts, as well as offering some insight into how each club might approach the 2009 draft. Links to each of those reviews is listed below in 2009 draft order (Just click on the team’s name). Be sure to check back with Fangraphs after the draft for post-draft analysis.

First Round
1. Washington Nationals
2. Seattle Mariners
3. San Diego Padres
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Baltimore Orioles
6. San Francisco Giants
7. Atlanta Braves
8. Cincinnati Reds
9. Detroit Tigers
10. Washington Nationals (Compensation)
11. Colorado Rockies
12. Kansas City Royals
13. Oakland Athletics
14. Texas Rangers
15. Cleveland Indians
16. Arizona Diamondbacks
17. Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation)
18. Florida Marlins
19. St. Louis Cardinals
20. Toronto Blue Jays
21. Houston Astros
22. Minnesota Twins
23. Chicago White Sox
24. Los Angeles Angels (Compensation)
25. Los Angeles Angels (Compensation)
26. Milwaukee Brewers
27. Seattle Mariners (Compensation)
28. Boston Red Sox
29. New York Yankees (Compensation)
30. Tampa Bay Rays
31. Chicago Cubs
32. Colorado Rockies (Compensation)

Supplemental First Round
36. Los Angeles Dodgers

Second Round
72. New York Mets
75. Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Draft Slot: Ninth overall
Top Pick: Aaron Crow, RHP, University of Missouri (Did not sign)
Best Pick (that signed): Destin Hood, OF, Alabama high school (2nd round)
Keep an Eye On: J.P. Ramirez, OF, Texas high school (15th round)
Notes: After taking the collegian hurler, Washington then selected prep prospects with three of the next four picks (Long Beach State infielder Danny Espinosa was also nabbed). Of those three high school picks – Destin Hood, LHP Graham Hicks, and C Adrian Nieto – (plus J.P. Ramirez, who was given a huge over-slot deal to sign after being taken in the 15th round), all of them began 2009 in extended spring training and will be making their season debuts in June in short-season ball.

2007 Draft Slot: Sixth overall
Top Pick: Ross Detwiler, RHP, Missouria State University
Best Pick: Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Wisconsin-Stevens Point (Second round, 67th overall)
Worst Pick: Jake Smolinksi, 3B, Illinois high school (Second round, 70th overall)
Notes: With five picks in the first two rounds, Washington grabbed a number of key prospects and completely remade (and significantly improved) its minor league system. Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler are currently pitching in the big league rotation. OF Michael Burgess (supplemental first round) is the organization’s best hitting prospect. Catcher Derek Norris (fourth round) might be the second-best hitting prospect. Getting LHP Jack McGeary to sign in the sixth round was another steal.

2006 Draft Slot: 15th overall
Top Pick: Chris Marrero, 1B/OF, Florida high school
Best Pick: Chris Marrero
Worst Pick: Stephen Englund, OF, Washington high school (2nd round)
Notes: The club spent quite a few picks on prep players and did not fare very well. Chris Marrero is the best pick of the draft, but he’s been inconsistent and injured. Sean Black did not sign after being selected with the team’s first pick of the second round. Stephen Englund, also taken in the second, and Stephen King, the third-round selection, have both struggled to hit pro pitching. Fourth round pick LHP Glenn Gibson has fallen off the map since being traded to Tampa Bay.

2009 Draft Slot: 1st overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College pitching, prep hitters
MLB Club Need: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching
Organizational Need: Right-handed pitching, third base, second base
Organizational Strength: Outfield, catcher
Notes: Along with the first overall pick in the 2009 draft, with which the club should take Stephen Strasburg (unless there is a catastrophic injury), the Nationals club also possesses the 10th overall pick in the draft for failing to sign its first round selection from 2008 (RHP Aaron Crow, who is back in the draft). The Nationals organization has the opportunity to significantly improve its minor-league depth in the span of 10 picks. A future starting rotation including Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Collin Balester, Ross Detwiler, and John Lannan or Shairon Martis should look pretty good in the National League East, if everyone stays healthy and reaches his potential.