Archive for Tigers

Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are set to become the marquee free agent first basemen this offseason, but they may have some company. Dmitri Young has reportedly expressed interest in returning to the major leagues. Suddenly, teams missing out on Albert and the Prince have a viable Option C when the signing period rolls around.

/sarcasm

Clearly Young’s desire to return has no bearing on any market whatsoever, but the story remains interesting. Young told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that he plans on participating in the Venezuelan Winter League, beginning in October. From there, the realistic goal is to receive a spring training invitation on a non-guaranteed, minor league deal. After all, he hasn’t played in the major leagues since 2008, and appeared in just 14 games for the Nationals’ minor-league affiliates the very next season. He also officially retired in March 2010, presumably due to his struggles with diabetes.

He wants to come back, but will anyone give him a chance?

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Well, the regular season is not entirely over, as the White Sox and Tigers play at 2 PM EST today. The south side bunch trails the Twins by one half game in the AL Central, meaning the best they could do is force a tie with a win, leading to a one game playoff. The White Sox are putting the season in the hands of Gavin Floyd, who has definitely exceeded expectations this season. Jim Leyland is handing the ball to Freddy Garcia, former Mariners and White Sox great, who won a ring with the White Sox in 2005.

Garcia spent last season with the Phillies, though most of it was not actually spent with the Phillies, as he missed a large portion of the season due to injury. And, as a Phillies fan, I can attest to the fact that while he did look great in spurts in the several starts he did make, he was more than largely ineffective. He spent the last year and a half or so rehabbing and getting back in shape, hoping to audition for, and impress, a team willing to give him a chance this season.

The White Sox were one of these teams, but Ozzie Guillen felt that Freddy just was not ready yet, and likely would not return this season. Garcia used these words as a motivational tool, driving him to prove he was definitely ready for big league action. Sportscenter hinted that Garcia held some ill will towards Guillen for the comments; I am sincerely hoping this was more of a literary technique by the anchor as opposed to the truth, since Guillen’s comments (for once) were pretty harmless in this case.

He has made two previous starts, compiling 10 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 3 HR, 3 BB, 9 K. I will refrain from discussing, in detail, his 4.50 ERA, 6.43 FIP, or 8.10 K/9, since he has made just two appearances, but a solid performance from Garcia, against his old team, could knock the White Sox out of the playoffs. Let’s hope this does not happen, however, or else we will be one step closer to dozens of mainstream newspapers discussing how the Mets with Johan Santana did not get in but the Twins sans-Santana are still alive in October.

Last week, Matthew examined the idea of anchoring, or how our perception of a player’s performance on the whole can largely be influenced by very good or very poor production in the first month of the season. No matter what happens from that point forward, unless the player in question belongs to “our” team, we are going to instinctively jump back to the April performance to gauge how he is doing. It is with this in mind that I bring up Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers, the offensively-talented youngster that is usually thought of as a force to be reckoned with when he steps up to the plate.

From 2005-2007, Cabrera posted OPS counts ranging from .947-.998, exhibiting the kind of patience and power that makes any fan of an opposing team feel uneasy. After an off-season trade from the Marlins to the Tigers, some speculated that the change of scenery, or the change in leagues that is, may effect his numbers, much like those of Carlos Beltran and Adrian Beltre. Now, Beltran and Beltre had poor inaugural seasons with their new teams but bounced back quite nicely after that. The Tigers got off to an incredibly disappointing start, and Cabrera’s numbers in April were not necessarily indicative of his proven track record.

He was hitting .270/.359/.470, an .829 OPS, with 5 doubles and 5 home runs. His relatively slow start, coupled with the poor performance of the team, led many to believe this speculation was coming true, and that Cabrera would have a down season. Since May 1st, Cabrera has hit .293/.350/.543, an .893 OPS, with 27 doubles and 28 home runs. On the whole, that brings his seasonal line to .289/.351/.530, an .882 OPS, with 32 doubles and 33 home runs, numbers very similar to those he posted in 2004, his first full year in the majors. In fact, his current OPS+ of 130 is the same as it was back in 2004.

His line has definitely improved since April, but it does not appear that anyone has realized. Not many know he’s got 33 jimmy-jacks this year, or that his ISO of .241 is the second-highest of his career. They just know that he had a slower-than-usual April, and are basing assessments off of that. Granted, his season is well off the Marcel projection of .328/.408/.558, a .966 OPS, but there are some interesting reasons why. First, his BB % is the lowest it has been in a full season in his career, meaning quite simply that he isn’t walking as much. That is one reason his OBP is much lower—the SLG is actually quite similar to year’s past, but the OBP is off. Additionally, his BABIP has ranged from .330-.382 in his career, even being projected at .371 this year. As of right now, it is .312, still technically above average but much lower than what he has established himself capable of. Because of this, not as many hits are falling in, which affects all three components of the slash line.

Cabrera is on a new team, at a new fielding position, in the league with superior talent. All three of those factors could play a big part in his performance this year, or they could have nothing to do with them. If the BABIP is any indication, it seems like an outlier. He could very well “bounce back” next season and post numbers similar to those in Florida, as his true talent level would suggest, but he will need to be a bit more patient at the plate, swinging at less pitches out of the zone, as his percentage is higher this year. A team could do much worse than employ a first baseman with an OPS right around .900, but Cabrera has shown himself capable of so much more than that. His early season performance may still be affecting his current seasonal reputation, but he is still having a very good year, one extremely similar to his 2004 campaign.

Remember at the beginning of the season when, for whatever reason, some ESPN analysts seemed programmed to think that the Detroit Tigers were seriously capable of scoring 1,000 runs this year? Of course, it was a euphemism for how potent their offense might be rather than a serious prediction (I hope). Curtis Granderson was expected to leadoff for this offense and help propel them into a landslide division victory in the AL Central.

Well, the Tigers aren’t scoring or on pace to score 6.17 r/g—what it would take to score 1,000+ runs—and Granderson’s early season absence is generally attributed as a major cause. It’s kind of odd to say that the team vastly underperformed because of him; after all, in 2006, he was a contender for the Oddibe Award (the award I give out to the player with the most average slash line). Sure, he had a great year in 2007 but to say a team “expected” to win at an alarming rate isn’t doing so because of one player means that his replacement would have to have been monumentally awful so as to make up for the difference.

Since his return he has essentially picked up where he left off. He wasn’t going to OPS .920+ realistically as it took one of those 20-20-20-20 seasons to get a .913, but that does not mean he couldn’t be a very productive player. In 105 games, he is hitting .302/.374/.502, an .876 OPS. 44 of his hits are of the extra-base variety, consisting of 20 doubles, 9 triples, and 15 home runs. With only a month and a half left, needing both 11 steals and 11 triples, it isn’t likely he can repeat the 2007 magic, but given the time he missed his stat-line is still very impressive.

His OBP was thirteen points lower last year, at .361, but his SLG was up fifty points at .552. He doesn’t seem like a power-hitter because triples aren’t necessarily held to the same power esteem as home runs or doubles; triples are thought of more as hits based on speed. Despite his slugging percentage is much lower than last year, it is still the same or in the same vicinity as Vladimir Guerrero, Jason Giambi, Nate McLouth, and Aramis Ramirez.

He has contributed 1.72 wins in a context-neutral environment, and 1.44 based on shifts in run expectancy. For the sake of context, Vladimir Guerrero is one full WPA/LI win below Grandy. He may have missed time early in the season and his absence may have hurt the Tigers get off to the start they desired, but any struggles since his return can hardly be attributed to his performance.

When the Tigers traded two of their top four prospects in Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria this past offseason, they had to have set high expectations for the Colombian shortstop. After all, in each of the last three seasons he has increased his batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. Suffice it to say, close to the 100-games mark, he has not come close to meeting them.

In 82 games he has produced a .254/.301/.326 slash line, “good” for a .627 OPS. He has walked much less, doing so in 6.7% of his plate appearances compared to the 8.1-9.4% of the three years prior. In addition he is not only hitting less but when he does they are not normally of the extra-bases variety. He has just five doubles and five home runs. Add in his lone triple and he has 11 extra-base hits on the season. Of players with at least 300 plate appearances, that ranks as the second worst in baseball, ahead of nobody other than Gregor Blanco.

Now, just because he has performed this way to date does not mean he will continue to do so over the course of the season. Projection systems base their judgments on actual historical data, so they do not just come from thin air. Renteria’s Marcel projection for this year included a .295/.357/.425 slash line, a .782 OPS, 10 home runs, and 29 doubles. He is clearly off pace but how much so? How has his performance so far this year effected what should be expected of him?

Luckily, Sal Baxamusa of The Hardball Times created a spreadsheet that allows us to project performance in-season based on current statistics as well as those from the past three seasons. Using this, Renteria’s projection over the remainder of the season includes a .282/.342/.402 slash line, a .744 OPS, 5 home runs, and 13 doubles. His projected OPS in the second half comes relatively close to his pre-season projection, but what happens when we add back in his poor first half?

With the aforementioned second half, Renteria would finish this year at .267/.320/.360, a .680 OPS, 10 home runs, and 18 doubles. His OPS would be 100 points lower than his pre-season projection, and the only number he matched would be the 10 gopher balls. Quite simply, a .680 OPS from a shortstop expected to be a key ingredient on a team “that could score 1,000 runs this year” is terrible. Add in that he only had one year left on his contract—and a 2009 club option—entering this season and that the Tigers traded away two key prospects, and, while it is yet to be determined how the Braves will make out with Jurrjens and Hernandez, the Tigers end of this deal does not appear it will work out the way they hoped.

Of course, hindsight is always 20/20, and Renteria could be an outlier defying his projection, but he would have to recover from a hamstring injury to post some extra-gaudy numbers for this to happen.

Prior to the season’s commencement, many analysts for whatever reason pegged the Tigers capable of scoring 1,000 runs this season. Whether these “projections” were born out of reality or more along the lines of superlatives to express how potent the offense could be, everyone expected them to succeed this season. Suffice it to say, on June 6th, when they sat at 24-36, twelve games under .500, and nowhere near the pace for 1,000 runs, bedlam worthy of Gotham City began to ensue in the minds of the Detroit faithful.

Since that day the Tigers have gone 18-4, improving their record to 42-40. While nothing spectacular it is still good enough for just five games out of first place. In lieu of their more extended recent winning ways I wanted to take a look at the major contributors. In terms of WPA, Placido Polanco, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Curtis Granderson all rank in the top 25 over the last fourteen days, ranging from 0.42 to 0.54 wins. Substitute Cabrera for Clete Thomas, with the other three in tact, and the group of four also ranks in the context-neutral top 35 in this same span.

Since June 6, here are some of the numbers for their offensive components:

Marcus Thames: .313/.362/.813, 1.175 OPS, 10 HR in 64 AB
Curtis Granderson: .423/.458/.628, 1.086 OPS, 4 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR
Placido Polanco: .427/.437/.537, .974 OPS
Clete Thomas: .450/.542/.650 in first career 24 PA
Miguel Cabrera: .306/.344/.482, .826 OPS, 6 2B, 3 HR
Gary Sheffield: .286/.310/.536, .846 OPS, 2 HR in 7 g returning from DL

The numbers of Cabrera and Sheffield may not seem as “special” relative to what was expected of them but the results since June 6 have been better than their overall numbers; for Sheffield, much better. What about the starting rotation? Jeremy Bonderman will miss the season but what are the other four main starters doing during this torrid stretch of play?

Armando Galarraga: 5 GS, 29.1 IP, 6 BB, 20 K, 2.76 ERA, 52 Game Score
Kenny Rogers: 5 GS, 33.1 IP, 9 BB, 10 K, 2.70 ERA, 54 Game Score
Justin Verlander: 5 GS, 33.0 IP, 14 BB, 34 K, 2.73 ERA, 61 Game Score
Nate Robertson: 4 GS, 24.2 IP, 6 BB, 17 K, 2.92 ERA, 52 Game Score

These four, whose combined W-L in this span is 10-2, range from 2.70-2.92 in ERA and 52-61 in Game Score average. Add in Eddie Bonine’s two most recent outings and the Tigers staff seems to be clicking on all cylinders. This team is not going to score 1,000 runs, and they are not going to sustain an .818 winning percentage the rest of the season, but they are not as bad as they looked early on. They struggled out of the gate and underachieved, and are now overachieving to make up for it. I guess it’s true that, for an AL team, there isn’t anything better to cure some performance ailments than facing the teams on the senior circuit.

And, while the White Sox are still playing well, how many non-Detroit and non-Chicago fans are starting to think—despite being potentially afraid to admit it—that the Tigers, 24-36 on June 6, could realistically win this division?

Today we’re talking about Marcus Thames, the Tigers outfielder who essentially garners the following scouting report – “Will hit for power but not much else, and will strikeout a lot.”

Through 40 games this year, Thames is hitting .240/.307/.510 (compared to a .241/.306/.494 career line), doing all he can to show that he does not hit much but, when he does, it is generally of the extra-bases variety. Of his 25 hits this year, 12 (48%) are either doubles or home runs. Of all his seasons with at least 100 PA, his XBH percentages have ranged from 43-52%.

Due to this we can assume his ISO, basically the BA of extra base hits, to be higher than his overall BA:

2004: .255 BA, .255 ISO
2005: .196 BA, .215 ISO
2006: .256 BA, .293 ISO
2007: .242 BA, .257 ISO
2008: .240 BA, .269 ISO

His strikeout rates in this same span run from 22.1% to 35.5% so Thames knows how to confirm scouting reports. He hits for power more often than not but does not put the ball in play much due to the high volume of strikeouts. This is not to say he lacks value, though, as he has a positive career WPA and WPA/LI. This year, his WPA slash line (WPA/WPA-LI/Clutch) is currently 0.56/0.07/0.55.

He has contributed a little over half of a win to his team in WPA, but the large dropoff between that and WPA/LI suggests his contributions have more to do with the situations he finds himself in rather than his actual individual performance. He does not qualify for the Fangraphs leaderboards but, if he did, his Clutch score would rank 9th in the AL. I’ve read elsewhere that some fans (of different teams as well) would love for him to replace an unproductive outfielder of theirs, not just because of his “pop” but also his relatively low market value. He might be a decent upgrade over some other current outfielders but he should not be treated as a savior or any sort.

The scouting report on him has not been wrong yet: Thames will strikeout a ton, won’t get on base much, won’t hit for average, but will hit for power. Nothing more, nothing less.

In light of Justin Verlander’s struggles I am going to skip my normal opening paragraph designed to introduce the topic at hand and just plain pose the question – What is going on with the Tigers ace?

Last year, he went 18-6 with a 3.99 FIP, a WHIP of 1.23, and 183 strikeouts in 201.2 innings. This year, his WHIP currently sits at 1.46; his FIP has jumped to 5.37; and he has already matched his total losses from last year at six. Here are his stats in a form easier to compare:

2007: 18-6, 201.2 IP, 181 H, 82 ER, 67 BB, 183 K
2008: 1-6, 49.0 IP, 51 H, 35 ER, 21 BB, 30 K

2007: 3.66 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.23 WHIP
2008: 6.43 ERA, 5.37 FIP, 1.46 WHIP

In eight starts Verlander has allowed less than 4 earned runs just once! His BABIP against has not changed much, going from .294 last year to .289 to date. Does this match what we would expect?

2007: 19.1 LD%, .311 xBABIP, .294 BABIP
2008: 13.4 LD%, .254 xBABIP, .289 BABIP

Okay, well there’s a possible explanation. He is allowing just about six percent less line drives, splitting the difference between grounders and flyballs, so he has been unlucky, but is his performance really only driven by a lack of luck?

Looking at his percentage of runners left on base, it has plummeted from 74.9% last year to 56.4 right now. He is stranding over 18% less runners in the early going than he did last year.

The jump in his WHIP can be attributed to a decrease in his K/9, increase in his BB/9, and decrease in his K/BB:

2007: 8.17 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, 2.73 K/BB
2008: 5.51 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 1.46 K/BB

He isn’t striking out nearly as many batters and is walking more; this is not a formula for success. Why isn’t he striking as many batters out?

Looking at his pitch selection and velocity, he is throwing essentially the same percentage of fastballs, curveballs, and changeups.

2007: 62.3% FA, 18.9% CB, 18.8% CH
2008: 62.5% FA, 19.6% CB, 17.9% CH

Looking at velocity we can see a discrepancy. While his curveball and changeup have maintained their velocity from a year ago, his fastball has significantly decreased.

2007: Fastball, 62.3%, 94.8 mph
2008: Fastball, 62.5%, 93.0 mph

He currently has the ninth lowest WPA amongst starting pitchers, at -0.72, but his WPA/LI comes in lower at -0.38. This tells me that his results regardless of the situation are better than what his results due to the situation suggest. He is the one putting himself in these situations, though, with his increase in baserunners allowed.

From first glance it appears that, if his decrease in velocity is truly the reason for the lack of strikeouts, than that would be a big, big problem. When he experienced success in 2006 and 2007 he threw 94+ mph, limited his baserunners, stranded a high percentage of those that reached base, and struck out a good amount relative to his walks surrendered.

This year, none of that is happening relative to the last two seasons. Sure he is a bit unlucky in his BABIP, especially since he is allowing a very low rate of 13% line drives, but if I am on the Tigers staff I am going to be more concerned with Verlander regaining the controllable skills that made him a dominant AL pitcher than chalking everything up as some bad luck.

This past Tuesday former all-star pitcher Jose Lima was released by the Kia Tigers of the Korean League following a few starts reminiscent of his 2005 and 2006 major league seasons. Lima, always known more for his personality than his on-field performance, suggested this would signal the end of his baseball career. The idea of a baseball world without Jose Lima, as evident in the video below, almost brought Jim Rome to tears—at least relative to what tears for Jim Rome equates to.

Being a fan of Lima’s while growing up I decided to take a look at his career, which got off to a rocky start with the Tigers in 1994. From 1994-96 he pitched in 153 innings, giving up 183 hits and 25 home runs. He had an ERA of 6.24 in that span and a WHIP of 1.48. He joined the Astros in 1997 in a blockbuster trade (Lima, Brad Ausmus, CJ Nitkowski, Trever Miller, and Daryle Ward for Doug Brocail, Brian Hunter, Todd Jones, and Orlando Miller) and, on the surface, had a below average year out of the bullpen. In 75 innings of work he gave up 44 runs; however, based on his FIP of 3.92 this was a pretty solid year. With a very impressive K:BB of 3.94 and just nine home runs allowed, Lima pitched himself into the Astros rotation the following year.

Making 33 starts in 1998 Lima went for 233.1 innings and a 16-8 record. He cut down on his hits per inning and allowed under one walk per game en route to a 1.12 WHIP and 5.28 K:BB. His 3.70 ERA translated to a 4.15 FIP—still very respectable. The major blemish on his season came in the form of home runs: He allowed 34 in what would begin a four-year span accompanied by a total of 147 surrendered dingers.

1999 proved to be his best season as he made the all-star team and garnered serious Cy Young Award consideration. In 35 starts and a career high 246.1 innings, Lima went 21-10 with a 3.58 ERA, 3.83 FIP, even cutting his home run count down; in two more starts he allowed four less home runs. His K:BB, however, dropped by over a full point, dipping from 5.28 to 4.25. Though 4.25 is still a darned good ratio it would soon prove to be the beginning of the end to Lima’s previously solid control rates. He went from one of the top seasons in 1999 to, without a doubt, one of the worst in 2000.

In 33 starts he surrendered a ridiculous 48 home runs, just two off Bert Blyleven’s record of 50. His K:BB plummeted from 4.25 to 1.82 as his WHIP ballooned to 1.62. He went from an ERA and FIP of 3.58 and 3.83 to 6.65 and 6.18. 2001 became all too similar as his numbers slightly improved but still fell into the category of very poor. Luckily, the Astros found a taker prior to the end of the season and shipped him back to Detroit in exchange for Dave Mlicki.

2002 brought with it some controversy as a frustrated Lima blamed manager Luis Pujols for some of his struggles. After not being used for 27 days Lima came into face the red-hot heart of the Royals batting order. Lima claimed Pujols put him in these situations to embarrass him, which did not make sense to him because, as only Lima could say, “..it’s not like I hit on his wife or anything!”

The Tigers soon released Lima, prompting this quote for the ages: “If I can’t pitch on this team—the worst or second-worst team in baseball—where am I going to pitch? If I can’t start on this ballclup I must be the worst pitcher on Earth.” According to his numbers, maybe not Earth, but definitely America.

2003 and 2004 saw Lima appear to improve though the numbers were a bit deceiving. Though he went 8-3 for the Royals in ’03 he had just a 1.23 K:BB and a 1.45 WHIP. In 2004 he went 13-5 with the Dodgers, but his ERA of 4.07 translated to a 5.24 FIP. While his 1998-99 seasons were of high quality, 2003 and 2004 were more likely closer to his bad seasons regardless of his 21-8 combined record. In 2005 he posted a 6.99 ERA, the highest of all-time for any pitcher with 30+ starts. Ironically, his FIP was over one point lower, at 5.89.

After separate stints with the 2006 Mets, Lima’s major league baseball career was over. He had been given more chances due to succes in the past and a bulldog personality but had not been particularly effective since 1999. His career was fun to watch as you could tell he really loved to play and always took time to interact with fans. He is the kind of player that many fans, myself included, wish had more talent because of the personality.

Without trying to get too sentimental as the career of someone I grew up with ends, I will always remember Lima for his 2004 playoffs shutout against the Cardinals. The Dodger crowd went crazy and as he kneeled to thank the heavens it was clear he meant every bit of the thankfulness. Many other heavenly salutes come off as going through the motions, like the high-five following a free-throw in basketball. While I generally dislike this godly praise, Lima’s reaction will forever be entrenched in my mind.

Unfortunately for baseball fans, especially those who root for the teams he stunk on, Lima’s talent came nowhere near the level of his personality. While “Lima Time” is now officially over it more likely ended six to eight years ago. Still, though, it was never a dull ride. Bbbbbelieve it!