Archive for Tim Melville

To run a successful minor league system you have to draft well every June and spend money wisely on the international market. But you also have to have some luck by mining other systems for undervalued talent. Below you’ll find six prospects with diminished prospect value that may be poised to finally see the light click on in 2012. All the players were, at one time, highly regarded. Only one of them appeared on my 2012 Top 15 prospects lists – coming in at No. 15 on the Boston Red Sox ranking.

Mike Kvasnicka, C, Houston: Kvasnicka saw his draft stock take a huge leap in 2010 when he showed solid skills behind the dish while playing at the University of Minnesota. Hoping to get Kvasnicka to the Majors sooner rather than later the Astros organization made the decision to move him to a less demanding position. Unfortunately, his bat was not as potent as expected and did not profile well at the hot corner. The new front office regime recently made the decision to relocate Kvasnicka back behind the dish. He may return to low-A ball in 2012 to get re-acclimated with catching without putting too much pressure on his offensive game. He tired in the second half of 2011 so he’ll have to get stronger to withstand a full year of squatting behind the plate. A switch-hitting catcher carries a ton of potential value.

Read the rest of this entry »

General Manager: Dayton Moore
Farm Director: Mike Arbuckle
Scouting Director: J.J. Picollo

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The system certainly has some talent brewing, but most of it lies below the double-A level, so fans are going to have to be patient. A renewed emphasis on the draft should definitely help turn the organization around. For more on the ’09 draft picks, see yesterday’s post.

1. Mike Montgomery, LHP, high-A
DOB: July 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

If the organization can find a way to keep its current ace, then it could have a nasty one-two punch at the MLB level with Zack Greinke and Montgomery. The left-hander has flown through the system and will likely open ’10 in double-A. Montgomery, 20, posted a 2.30 FIP in 52.0 innings in high-A in ’09. He allowed just 38 hits and posted a walk rate of 2.08 BB/9. He also showed that he can miss some bats with a strikeout rate of 7.96 K/9. In his career, Montgomery has allowed just three homers in 152.2 innings of work, thanks in part to his solid ground-ball rates. His rate averaged out at 50% for the ’09 season.

2. Mike Moustakas, 3B, high-A
DOB: September 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Still just 21 years of age, Moustakas has been hurt by some low BABIPs over the past two seasons: .291 in ’08 and .277 in ’09. As a result, this former No. 1 draft pick’s triple-slash numbers have plummeted each of his three pro seasons. Moustakas is going to have to improve his patience at the plate (6.1 BB% in ’09) but he does flash some raw power (.171 ISO in ’09). A .319 wOBA is not going to make him an impact third baseman.

3. Eric Hosmer, 1B, high-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Big things were expected of Hosmer in ’09, but he struggled with his vision and hit just .254/.352/.382 in 280 low-A at-bats. Curiously, the organization chose to promote the first baseman despite the lackluster numbers. He then hit .206/.280/.299 in 97 high-A at-bats. On the plus side, Hosmer posted a walk rate of 13.6% in low-A, which is extra impressive considering he was not seeing the ball very well.

4. Danny Duffy, LHP, high-A
DOB: December 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

He’s certainly not the hardest thrower in the system, but Duffy knows how to pitch, as witnessed by his 2.84 FIP in high-A ball in ’09. Duffy allowed 108 hits in 126.2 innings of work. He gave up just six homers (0.43 HR/9) and showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.91 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped from 11.24 in low-A in ’08 to 8.88 K/9 in ’09, but it’s still an encouraging number. A word of caution: Despite his low homers-allowed totals, Duffy is a fly-ball pitcher. He posted a ground-ball rate of just 42.2% in ’09 and 36.6% in ’08, so that suggests he’s going to have to work down in the zone a little more.

5. Tim Melville, RHP, low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – Missouri HS
MLB ETA: early-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Melville entered the ’08 draft more highly regarded than organization-mate Montgomery, who has now passed him. Melville had a solid debut year (unlike Montgomery, he did not pitch in ’08) and allowed just 89 hits in 97.1 innings. The right-hander pitches up in the zone more than Montgomery, and he was hurt by a 0.92 HR/9 rate. He also showed less control with a walk rate of 3.98 BB/9. Melville did, however, show the ability to strike out batters with a K-rate of 8.88 K/9.

6. Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, triple-A
DOB: March 1984 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2002 15th round – Hawaii HS
MLB ETA: early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1

Ka’aihue was the forgotten man in the organization while Mike Jacobs played everyday and provided below average production (-0.7 WAR). Despite slugging 38 homers in ’08, the 25-year-old spent the entire year in triple-A where he hit .252/.392/.433 with an ISO of .181 in 441 at-bats. Ka’aihue walked 102 times on the year… or six fewer times than Jacobs has in the last three years combined. If Kansas City is not going to take him seriously as a cheap source of power, it should do the slugger a favor by trading him.

7. David Lough, OF, double-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 11th round – Mercyhurst College
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The 23-year-old Lough had a breakout ’09 season and could be the best in-house option to eventually replace David DeJesus or Coco Crisp (when they are deemed too expensive). Lough, though, is probably still a year away from being ready to play everyday at the MLB level. In ’09, he began the year in high-A and hit .320/.370/.473 in 222 at-bats. He then moved up to double-A where he hit .331/.371/.517 with a .186 ISO in 236 at-bats. Lough stole 19 bases but was caught eight times, and he needs to get on base more frequently (4.8 BB% in double-A) to take advantage of his speed.

8. Jeff Bianchi, SS, double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 2nd round – Pennsylvania HS
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Finally healthy, Bianchi showed consistency in ’09 and reached double-A. In high-A ball, the shortstop hit .300/.360/.427 in 220 at-bats. Moved up to double-A, Bianchi responded with a triple-slash line of .315/.356/.441 in 270 at-bats. He also stole 22 bases on the year and was caught just six times. The 23-year-old infielder strikes out too much (21.5 K%) for his modest power.

9. John Lamb, LHP, rookie
DOB: July 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 5th round – California HS
MLB ETA: late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Lamb did not pitch after signing in ’08, so he made his pro debut in ’09 and pitched well at two rookie ball levels. Overall, he allowed 57 hits in 68.2 innings and showed good control with a walk rate around 2.70 BB/9. Despite an average fastball, Lamb used his control and deception to strike out almost one batter per inning. He should jump to low-A in 2010, and he still has a long way to climb before reaching Kansas City.

10. Tyler Sample, RHP, rookie
DOB: June 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Colorado HS
MLB ETA: mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

This ’08 draft pick gets lost in the shuffle behind some of the bigger names, but Sample had an impressive year in ’09. The right-hander allowed 41 hits in 54.2 innings of work while posting a strikeout rate around 8.00 K/9. His control is still a work in progress, but it was right around 3.60 BB/9. Sample posted a modest 43.4% ground-ball rate, but he allowed just two home runs (0.16 HR/9).

Up Next: The St. Louis Cardinals

It’s safe to say that things have not gone quite like the Kansas City Royals management thought it would in 2009. The club started off pretty well but faded quickly in the standings and the Major League club is now in fourth place in the American League Central division, 11.5 games out of first place.

While the big-league club is floundering, there is some good news on the farm – especially down in low-A ball with the Burlington Bees. In recent years, the Royals organization has been stung by its inability to develop its own starting pitchers. Young stud Zack Greinke has begun to shift that trend and more reinforcements are on the way (albeit it slowly).

The Royals organization drafted two 6’5” prep pitchers in the 2008 draft: Michael Montgomery (supplemental first round) and Tim Melville (fourth round). Melville was a first-round talent who fell due to signability concerns, but the Royals did what any good organization (desperately in need of minor league talent/depth) should do: It ponied up the cash for a deserving talent, giving the organization two outstanding pitching talents from the 2008 draft.

Montgomery, a left-hander, made 12 appearances (nine starts) in 2008 at rookie ball. In 42.2 innings, he allowed 31 hits and posted a 1.69 ERA (3.13 FIP). So far this year, he’s also kept his ERA below 2.00 at 1.69 (2.83 FIP). He’s allowed 33 hits in 48 innings of work. The southpaw, who just turned 20 years old, has posted a walk rate of 3.94 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.88 K/9. He has yet to allow a home run this season, after allowing just two in 2008.

Right-hander Melville signed too late to make his 2008 debut, so he’s a little bit behind Montgomery on the development chart. Nonetheless, he joined the left-hander in low-A ball in 2009, where he’s made 11 starts. In 50 innings, Melville has allowed 48 hits while posting rates of 3.96 BB/9 and 7.20 K/9. The 19-year-old hurler has allowed five home runs and he has a 3.78 ERA (4.34 FIP).

Despite their inexperience, both pitchers rank among the organization’s best three pitching prospects – along with high-A left-hander Danny Duffy. Montgomery features a low-90s fastball, as well as two well-developed secondary pitches: a curveball and changeup. Melville’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 95 mph, a good curveball and a developing changeup that needs work.

Fear not, Royals fans. Help is on the way… Unless Dayton Moore trades Montgomery and Melville for Jerry Hairston or Ramon Vazquez.

The Graduate: Mike Aviles | Born: March 1981 | Shortstop

Mike Aviles is a great story. A former NCAA Division II player of the year, he signed as a college senior for $1,000. At 5’9” he has fought his way through the minor league system and posted solid numbers. Regardless, his ascent was a slow one and lasted six seasons. At the age of 27, Aviles not only made his debut in the Majors, he showed he belonged in the league. That said, there are some areas that need work if he is going to continue to succeed, such as his walk rate (4.1%). If he is going to be a utility player, Aviles is also going to need to improve defensively at second base and third base. His play at shortstop is solid.

The Riser: Alex Caldera | Born: October 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

A 2007 13th round selection out of California, Alex Caldera was second in the organization in strikeouts with 120 and allowed 141 hits in 149 innings pitched. He also did an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park with just six home runs allowed (0.32 HR/9). Caldera showed excellent control of his repertoire, which includes a low-90s fastball, with a walk rate of 2.17 BB/9.

The Tumbler: Jeff Bianchi | Born: October 1986 | Shortstop

Jeff Bianchi, a former second round pick out of a Pennsylvania high school, caught people’s attentions by hitting more than .400 in his first two seasons. Unfortunately he did it in only 40 games due to injuries. The last two seasons, though, Bianchi has struggled to hit for average and he has also posted low on-base numbers: 6.4 BB% in 2007, 4.8 BB% in 2008. On the plus side, his slugging percentage rose from .315 in 2007 to .442 in 2008 and his ISO improved from .068 to .187. He may need to begin 2009 back in High-A ball. At the age of 22, he has plenty of time to find his stroke.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Tim Melville | Born: October 1989 | Right-Handed Pitcher

It’s pretty impressive that the Royals were able to nab, arguably, both the best high school hitter (Eric Hosmer) and the best high school pitcher (Tim Melville) in the 2008 draft. Even more impressive is the fact that the Royals got Melville in the fourth round because everyone else thought he was unsignable and headed to college. In the last two seasons, the Royals have done exactly what a struggle organization (with not a lot of money) needs to do – which is develop within and do not cut corners on the draft. Melville has yet to pitch in pro ball, but he features a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a knuckle-curve with plus potential, and a developing change-up.

The ’09 Sleeper: Jose Bonilla | Born: August 1988 | Catcher

We dip down all the way to Rookie Ball for the Royals’ sleeper. Jose Bonilla received a taste of North American ball in 2007 when he appeared in three games, but he did not see regular playing time until this past season and he made the most of the opportunity. Bonilla hit .357/.405/.625 in 112 at-bats. His walk rate was low (4.3 BB%) but there aren’t many young catchers that can mix hitting for average with power (.268 ISO). He is someone to keep an eye on in 2009.

Up Next: The Chicago Cubs