Archive for Tim Redding

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have, over the last several seasons, reignited a rivalry that many have been hoping to see for quite some time. They have also combined for extremely memorable finishes in each of the last two seasons. Entering 2009, the teams once again project to be very close in talent, with the Mets solidifying their bullpen and the Phillies ridding themselves of Adam Eaton. Both of the teams also happen to be four men deep in their respective starting rotations, with a decent number of hurlers competing for the final spots.

With Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez in the fold, Tim Redding looked to be the de facto fifth starter when he signed early in the offseason. Omar Minaya added some competition, however, by bringing prospect Jonathan Niese to camp as well as inking Livan Hernandez and Freddy Garcia to minor league contracts with spring training invites. Redding reportedly showed up overweight and has not been terribly impressive so far, giving up nine earned runs in just two innings of work.

Though we should never put too much stock into preseason statistics, you better believe that they play a part in the decision making processes. In 14.2 innings this month, Livan Hernandez has a 3.07 ERA and has not yet surrendered a home run. Sure, his 4.29 K/9 is below average and his success is likely smoke and mirrors, but he hasn’t looked too shabby. His low risk counterpart Garcia has been the opposite, allowing 14 hits and 13 earned runs in just seven innings, vastly reducing his chances of making the big league club. And despite being young, Niese has not looked great either, with seven walks and six earned runs in eight innings. He has shown a knack for fanning hitters, but his control needs improvement before we can consider him to be a viable and dependable major league pitcher.

Then we have Pedro Martinez, who as I wrote in a profile at Baseball Prospectus has seemingly been engaged in a one-sided game of hard to get with his former employers. The Mets apparently have an offer of $1-2 mil on the table for Pedro, and if the Dodgers fail to match these terms, Martinez would prefer to remain in New York. Assuming Garcia does not break camp with the team, and Martinez comes aboard, what do you do? Minaya will have Livan, Redding, Pedro, and Niese and just one spot available. Niese would presumably go back to the minors, but that still leaves Livan, Redding, and Pedro, with Redding being the sole owner of a guaranteed contract.

The Phillies situation is a bit easier in terms of the number of viable candidates left, but the remaining two hurlers have both been very impressive. With Kyle Kendrick and Carlos Carrasco out of the hunt, just J.A. Happ and Chan Ho Park remain. In 15 innings this month, Happ has a 3.60 ERA with 11 punchouts and just three free passes issued. Those numbers are bested by Park, who has a 1.54 ERA, 11 punchouts and no walks in 11.2 innings.

With the uncertainty surrounding Cole Hamels‘ availability, both Happ and Park could conceivably start the season in the rotation. If Hamels is available right away, the Phillies have a decision to make: which one starts and which one goes to the bullpen? The “logical” decision would be to place Happ in the bullpen to start the season given the absence of JC Romero for at least 50 games. Either way, whichever pitcher loses out will be close behind should the fifth-spot victor struggle.

If you’re a Mets fan, do you want Redding, Pedro, or Livan? And for Phillies fans, Park or Happ? And if you’re a fan of neither, who has the more intimidating name: Balfour or Broxton?

Tim Redding, a 5’11” righty starter for the Washington Nationals the last two seasons, was recently non-tendered. Though he will be 31 in February and is coming off of a 4.95 ERA/4.93 FIP season, several teams are inquiring about his services. Redding has been around since 2001, having played for the Astros, Padres and Yankees prior to the Nationals, as well as serving as a member of the White Sox AAA affiliate for the 2006 season.

His career got off to a rocky start, as in 2001 he posted an ERA of 5.50 and an FIP of 5.10. He managed to strike out over 8.5 batters per nine innings, but posted poor peripherals elsewhere. The following season, the ERA lowered to 5.40 and his FIP dropped over a half-run to 4.45. His K/9 also fell, but to 7.7, still quite good. He allowed way too many baserunners, though, and struggled to strand them. BABIPs of .333 and .321, respectively, can be worked around with solid control and a low walk rate, but Redding possessed neither of these.

In 32 starts during the 2003 season, he pitched 176 innings of 4.12 FIP baseball. His 3.68 ERA even outdid the solid FIP mark. His BB/9 decreased from 4.3 to 3.3; his BABIP stabilized at .300; and his LOB% rose to a slightly above league average rate of 73%. Unfortunately, his K/9 also fell, from 7.7 to 5.9. He did not strikeout as many hitters but he allowed a much lower number of them to reach base, and subsequently appeared more apt at keeping them on the basepaths.

2004 saw a 5.72 ERA/5.30 FIP, and in 2005 these numbers ballooned to 10.57/6.61. In fact, his WHIP in 2005 was a gaudy 1.99. Suffice it to say, he was below replacement level and did not deserve a roster spot on any team. He spent the 2006 season in the minor leagues for the White Sox, compiling decent but not earth-shattering numbers. The first half of the 2007 season was spent in the minors for the Nationals, where his 3.90 FIP earned him a callup.

In 15 starts that season, Redding pitched himself to a 3.64 ERA. His controllable skills told a different story, as a 5.0 K/9 combined with a 4.1 BB/9 and below average home run rate to produce a 5.17 FIP. The vast majority of pitchers are not able to have their ERA outdo FIP consistently for several seasons, and Redding was no exception. This past season, he made 33 starts and posted a 4.95 ERA/4.93 FIP. A good sign emerged, though: his K/9 rose to 5.9 while his BB/9 fell to 3.2, giving Redding his highest K/BB ratio since 2001.

Marcel projects him to pitch 159 innings next season with a 4.77 FIP. He would be responsible for 84 runs should this come to fruition. The replacement starter and reliever combination would surrender 97 runs, deeming Redding +13 runs above replacement. This converts to +1.3 wins, which has a fair market value of $6.5 mil. Tim made just $1 mil in 2008 with the Nationals.

The Rockies, Rangers, Mets, and Orioles have all been linked as aggressive suitors. If they can sign Redding to a deal lesser than or equal to the fair market value listed above, then he will serve as a decent fifth starter. Anything higher and we start to move into the Carlos Silva territory of overpaying fifth starter-types. Redding is not going to light the world on fire, but he could be a decent stopgap in a one-year deal, and could very likely be signed for less than his current $6.5 mil fair market value.

It seems that a common course of action for pitchers trying to revive their careers is to sign with the Nationals. Jason Simontacchi tried it; as did Esteban Loaiza and Jerome Williams. The same can be said for Pedro Astacio. Odalis Perez hopped on this year; and Tim Redding is currently experiencing some success in his second year with the team.

In his 25 games with the Nationals since the middle of last season, Redding has the following numbers:

2007: 15 GS, 84 IP, 84 H, 38 BB, 47 K, 3.64 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
2008: 10 GS, 57 IP, 44 H, 22 BB, 38 K, 3.16 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

His FIPs of 5.17 and 4.36, respectively, suggest his ERA should be higher based on controllable skills, but Redding has definitely produced well enough to at least draw some interest from teams other than the Nationals. Puzzling, too, is his domination so far of the Phillies. In five starts against them as a National, Redding’s numbers are:

vs. Phillies: 5 GS, 31 IP, 25 H, 6 ER, 10 BB, 21 K, 1.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

His FIP of around 3.57 still implies he has done quite well against one of the league’s best offenses. Is there anything different from a year ago that could be attributed to this increased relative success?

His BABIP has been lucky, coming in at .234 when it should be closer to .280, but Redding has kept this down for his entire career.

What about his BIP rates? Last year, his LD/GB/FB was 22.2/38.3/39.5; it is currently 16.0/46.3/37.7. He has replaced six percent of line drives and two percent of flyballs with grounders. Grounders that apparently have not found holes in the infield too often.

His selection and velocity is also quite interesting. Though not by leaps and bounds, his velocity has increased in all four of his pitches; his selection of them has also differed. His fastball usage is down three percent but velocity is up 1 mph; his slider usage is up ~6% and velocity is up ~1 mph; his curveball usage is down ~1% but his velocity is up 1.5 mph; and his changeup usage is down ~1.5% while velocity is up ~1.5 mph.

When put together, this selection and his location has helped him increase his K/9 and decrease his BB/9. Despite not lighting the world on fire with a high K/BB, his numbers are up from a year ago and are likely a major reason for his WHIP dip from 1.45 to 1.16.

He doesn’t strike many batters out, 5.68 K/9, and he walks 3.47 batters per nine innings, but teams should not automatically write off playing the Nationals, especially when Tim Redding is on the hill.