Archive for travis d’arnaud

It’s not often that a club has the opportunity to acquire the reigning Cy Young award winner but the Toronto Blue Jays did just that when they acquired R.A. Dickey from the New York Mets on Monday. Understandably, the Blue Jays paid a steep price for the veteran knuckleballer. Along with the top prospect in their system — Travis d’Arnaud, whom I wrote about earlier — the Jays also flipped prospects Noah Syndergaard and Wuilmer Becerra to their National League trading partners.

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I published the Jays Top 15 prospect list just over a week ago but it already undergoes a transformation thanks to the (still unconfirmed) blockbuster trade between Toronto and the Miami Marlins. Justin Nicolino (5th), Jake Marisnick (6th), and Adeiny Hechavarria (10th) slide off the list and head to Florida while Anthony DeSclafani, another member of the trade, was in the 16-22 range and could very well make the Marlins’ upcoming Top 15.

#1 Travis D’Arnaud (C)

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AAA
Acquired: Trade (2009)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

The young catcher entered 2012 as the Jays’ top prospect and he did nothing to change the lofty status, although a knee injury ended his season prematurely in June. Had he not been injured d’Arnaud likely would have made his big league debut when MLB incumbent J.P. Arencibia suffered a fracture in his hand.

d’Arnaud has the potential to be both an above-average hitter and fielder. One talent evaluator said the prospect was likely ready for the big leagues but stressed his value was behind plate and that it wasn’t overly likely that he would see time at other positions in an effort to get his bat into the lineup. Despite Arencibia’s offensive challenges the organization remains committed to him as the starter behind the plate because of the trust he’s built up with the pitching staff. The organization also recently re-signed backup Jeff Mathis to a two-year contract extension (plus an option) suggesting that d’Arnaud could become trade bait as the organization is openly working to improve the big league club – especially the pitching staff. Read the rest of this entry »

The Toronto Blue Jays organization boasts some impressive depth that stretches well beyond the 15 best prospects listed below. There were at least another 10-12 prospects legitimately in the running for the 10-15 spots on this list.

#1 Travis D’Arnaud (C)

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AAA
Acquired: Trade (2009)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

The young catcher entered 2012 as the Jays’ top prospect and he did nothing to change the lofty status, although a knee injury ended his season prematurely in June. Had he not been injured d’Arnaud likely would have made his big league debut when MLB incumbent J.P. Arencibia suffered a fracture in his hand. d’Arnaud has the potential to be both an above-average hitter and fielder. One talent evaluator said the prospect was likely ready for the big leagues but stressed his value was behind plate and that it wasn’t overly likely that he would see time at other positions in an effort to get his bat into the lineup.

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Jesse Biddle, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 2nd
Current Value: On the Rise

Biddle continues to make big strides in his development. The 20-year-old southpaw is close to overtaking Trevor May as the best pitcher in the system – if he hasn’t already. Biddle has made 10 high-A starts but he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in his last seven appearances. He’s struck out 27 in his last four games. The lefty’s control remains inconsistent but it’s much improved over last year at low-A (4.47 to 3.22 BB/9). With 35 A-ball appearances under his belt since the beginning of 2011, Biddle is probably ready for a promotion to double-A and he has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

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General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Farm Director: Tony LaCava
Scouting Director: Andrew Tinnish

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

This is a tough system to rank beyond the Top 3 because the organization had such a down year in ’09 with a lot of prospects (hopefully temporarily) wiping out. On the plus side, there are quite a few talented players who are one good season away from shooting up the depth chart. The loss of Roy Halladay was a huge blow to the organization, as well as baseball in Canada, but the trade did infuse some much-needed talent.

1. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Triple-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Arizona State University (St. Louis)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Wallace is the guy that was always destined to be a Blue Jay. The club drafted him out of high school in ’05 even though he was an almost impossible signing due to his commitment to Arizona State. The club then had hoped to grab him in the ’08 draft, but St. Louis got to him first. Finally, the club nabbed him in a deal with Oakland (for Michael Taylor, who was obtained in the Roy Halladay deal). Wallace had a busy year in ’09 and played with three different minor league teams in double-A and triple-A. Overall on the year, he hit .293/.365/.458, which is not bad at all considering it was his first full season and he had a lot of change to deal with. The left-handed hitter fared very well against southpaws with an .897 OPS. Wallace projects to be a 20+ home run hitter with the ability to hit .280-.300. However, he needs to get a little more loft on the ball if he’s going to be a consistent power hitter. His walk rate took a bit of a hit with the promotion to triple-A (6.5%) compared to his double-A rate (11.7%), so he could stand to make some improvements in that area.

2. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Texas HS (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-96 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Drabek had an excellent ’09 season while returning from Tommy John surgery. He began the year in high-A ball and allowed 49 hits in 61.2 innings of work. His walk rate was solid at 2.77 BB/9 and he did not allow a home run, despite an average ground-ball rate. His strikeout rate was a nifty 10.80. Moved up to double-A, Drabek’s FIP rose from 1.82 to 3.83 but his walk rate was still good at 2.90 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped to 7.10 K/9. He gave up nine homers in double-A, as his HR/9 rate increased to 0.84 and his ground-ball rate dropped a little below average. Overall, he allowed 141 hits in 158.0 innings of work. The right-hander will probably begin the year back in double-A where he can hopefully improve his worm-burning numbers before moving up to the hitter’s haven that is Las Vegas. Drabek has the potential to be a No. 1 or 2 starter.

3. Zach Stewart, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas Tech University (Cincinnati)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

The club’s No. 1 prospect before the Halladay trade, Stewart is more suited to this position on a team’s Top 10 list. The right-hander has good stuff but the jury is still out on if he’s a starter or reliever. Toronto seems committed to him as a starter, which makes sense considering the bullpen depth that the club has at this point. Stewart pitched for four teams and at three levels in ’09. He began the year in high-A ball and posted a 2.63 FIP in seven starts. Moved up to double-A, he posted a 2.77 FIP in another seven starts. Jumped to triple-A with the Reds, he moved to the bullpen and had a 3.42 FIP in nine appearances before moving to Toronto where he had a 3.42 FIP in 11 games. His control dipped with each promotion, going from 1.70 to 2.43 to 4.90, so he clearly has some more work to do. On the plus side, his strikeout rate rose from 6.80 to 7.54 to 10.52. Along with his excellent K-rate, Stewart produces a lot of ground-balls (53% in ’09). If he can sharpen his change-up, he could be a solid No. 3 starter.

4. J.P. Arencibia, C, Triple-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – University of Tennessee
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an ugly year for Arencibia, who balked at making adjustments to his approach at the plate, which led to a dismal walk rate of just 5.2% (although it was an improvement over ’08). Arencibia had a breakout year in ’08 by hitting 27 homers and driving in 105 runs between high-A and double-A. However, his wOBA dropped from .402 in high-A to .348 in double-A… and it continued to slide in ’09, down to .316. His strikeout rate has gone from 18.5 to 21.0 to 24.5% during that same span. His BABIP also bottomed out in ’09 at .269, as his triple-slash line was just .236/.284/.444 in 466 triple-A at-bats. It was bad timing for Arencibia, who likely would have been in line for the starting gig in Toronto in 2010, if he had had even an average year at triple-A. On the positive side, Arencibia has made huge strides on defense and now projects to be an average-to-above-average MLB catcher. Unless his hitting improves, though, he could be relegated to platoon work or a back-up gig on a championship-caliber team.

5. Moises Sierra, OF, Double-A
DOB: September 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With one of the strongest outfield arms in all of minor league baseball, Sierra made huge strides at the plate in ’09. Just 21, he hit .286/.360/.393 in 405 at-bats at high-A ball. His walk rate has improved each of the past three seasons and it was 7.4% in ’09. His strikeout rate has dropped each year and it was just 16.3% in high-A, as Sierra is obviously becoming more confident at the plate. He also improved his base running in ’09 and stole 10 bases in 12 tries after being successful just 12 times in 23 tries in ’08. On the negative side, his power has yet to develop, although he has the potential to hit for power. His ISO rate has dropped each of the past three seasons from .154 to .118 to .106. The club was obviously happy with Sierra’s performance in ’09, which included a wOBA of .353, and he received a late-season promotion to double-A. After appearing in just nine games at that level last season, Sierra should return there for 2010. He is a breakout candidate for the new season.

6. Brad Mills, LHP, Triple-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 4th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 86-90 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Mills almost made the club out of spring training in ’09 – after an excellent ’08 season – and his value skyrocketed early in the year. Unfortunately, he had some ups-and-downs at triple-A and also battled injuries, which has caused him to fall out of favor with a lot of prospect watchers. Despite his “off year,” Mills still posted a 3.80 FIP at triple-A and showed acceptable control with a walk rate of 3.74 BB/9 and a good, but not great, strikeout rate at 7.68 K/9. Given two starts in the Majors, Mills tried to nibble and lacked confidence in his fastball and curveball, both of which had negative values in a small sample size (7.2 innings). If healthy in 2010, Mills should open the year back in triple-A but he could be one of the first pitchers called up.

7. Travis D’Arnaud, C, Low-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round pick (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

D’Arnaud could be ranked higher on this list but I’m taking the conservative approach as he played at low-A in ’09. Like Wallace, the club had tried to acquire this catcher via the draft but he was nabbed with the 37th overall pick by the Phillies. Toronto, picking 38th, ended up with Brett Cecil (a nice compensation). D’Arnaud, who turns 21 shortly, hit .255/.319/.419 in 482 at-bats in low-A ball last year (His numbers were depressed by a .279 BABIP). He showed good power potential with 38 doubles and 13 homers (.164 ISO). The catcher also had a pretty good approach at the plate with a walk rate of 7.6% and a strikeout rate of 15.6%. He has a good defensive reputation but he threw out just 23% of base stealers. The system suddenly has good depth at the catching position with the likes or Arencibia, D’Arnaud, and Carlos Perez.

8. Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Low-A
DOB: April 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus change-up, slider

Alvarez is an exciting prospect because his fastball has been gaining velocity over the past two seasons and now sits comfortably in the low 90s, and it has excellent sink. That good downward movement resulted in a ground-ball rate of 51.4% at low-A in ’09. The right-hander gave up just one homer in 124.1 innings of work, while also posting a 2.43 FIP as a teenager. He also showed excellent control for his age with a walk rate of 1.38 BB/9. Still learning how to set up hitters, Alvarez’ strikeout rate was just 6.66 K/9 but his breaking ball has strikeout potential. He’ll move up to High-A ball in 2010 at the age just 20.

9. Carlos Perez, C, Rookie
DOB: October 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The organization has not had much luck handing out large contracts to big-named international free agents, but Perez joins Alvarez and Sierra as one of the Jays’ best under-the-radar Latin signings. The catcher is solid defensive (albeit it with the usual youthful development needs), and he’s also becoming quite a force at the plate thanks to his solid batting eye. Perez, 19, made his North American debut in ’09 at rookie ball and hit .291/.364/.433 in 141 at-bats. After walking more than he struck out in the Dominican Summer League in ’08, he posted a respectable walk rate of 9.8% in the Gulf Coast League. He also showed some line-drive pop (.142 ISO) and he is more athletic than most catchers.

10. Danny Farquhar, RHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 10th round – University of Louisiana-Lafayette
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, cutter, slider, curveball, change-up

There are a number of other prospects that could have slid in here such as Gustavo Pierre, Tyler Pastornicky, Justin Jackson – interestingly enough all shortstops – because the system has so many sleepers in it right now (but few “can’t miss” names). Tim Collins was also an option here, but he projects to be a left-handed reliever, so his ceiling is a little lower than Farquhar who could develop into an eighth-inning guy, if not a closer. The right-hander comes at hitters from a variety of arm angles and can reach the low-90s from a sidearm slot. Perhaps because he throws so many different pitches – and with so many angles – Farquhar’s control has suffered and he posted a walk rate of 5.91 BB/9 in double-A. That obviously has to improve before he’ll have much success in the Majors. Despite that fact, he posted a 10.05 K/9 rate and allowed just one homer and 31 hits in 45.2 innings at the double-A level.

Up Next: The Washington Nationals

No matter how you slice the Roy Halladay trade, it had to be done and Toronto fans were going to be let down. The trade could have brought three A-level prospects into the system and it still would have hurt… a lot. The rest of the fans around Major League Baseball are finally going to have the opportunity to appreciate Halladay after he’s spent the past 12 years in northern obscurity. The former Cy Young award winner has pitched 200+ innings for four straight seasons and is an undisputed No. 1 pitcher, and those are a lot rarer than most people realize.

Reportedly, there are six prospects changing hands once the trade is finalized. Toronto ends up receiving one A-level prospect and two B-level prospects, or a smidgen more than it would have if the organization had held onto Halladay for the entire 2010 season and then let him walk for two high draft picks. Overall, the talent changing hands in the three-team deal, which also sees Cliff Lee head to Seattle, ranks like this:

1. Kyle Drabek, RHP (from Philadelphia to Toronto)
2. Phillippe Aumont, RHP (from Seattle to Philadelphia)
3. Michael Taylor, OF (from Philadelphia to Toronto)
4. Travis D’Arnaud, C (from Philadelphia to Toronto)
5. Tyson Gillies, OF (from Seattle to Philadelphia)
6. J.C. Ramirez, RHP (from Seattle to Philadelphia)

To be honest, I’m not sure why this was a three-team deal. Toronto received nothing from Seattle. The Phillies organization could have done the deal and taken its the time to deal Lee for a better haul than what it got from Seattle. Perhaps the club wanted to soften the blow of trading off its post-season hero with the acquisition of Halladay? Or why not keep both Halladay and Lee and make a serious run at the World Series in 2010? That two-headed monster at the top of the rotation would have struck fear in any lineup.

But it’s not my job to analyze the overall deal. I’m the prospects guy, so let’s get on to the fun stuff.

The Toronto Blue Jays’ Haul:
Kyle Drabek is the key to the deal and helps to ease the pain from not receiving the Phillies’ top prospect in outfielder Domonic Brown (who definitely is the best player in all three organizations). The Toronto organization has pretty good pitching depth (at least related to its lack of hitting prospects) but Drabek has a higher ceiling (No. 1 or 2 starter) than anyone in the Jays system. The right-hander had a nice year in ’09 while coming back from Tommy John surgery.

He began the year in high-A and allowed just 49 hits in 61.2 innings. The son of Doug Drabek showed solid control with a walk rate of just 2.77 BB/9 and overpowered hitters, as witnessed by his 10.80 strikeout rate. He also did not allow a home run despite a modest ground-ball rate of 45.2%. Moved up to double-A, the 22-year-old hurler allowed 92 hits in 96.1 innings and saw his strikeout rate drop to 7.10 K/9. His walk rate, though, held steady at 2.90 BB/9. Home runs became a bit of an issue, as Drabek allowed nine homers (0.84 HR/9). His FIP rose from 1.82 to 3.83. He’s going to need to work on his change-up to combat left-handed hitters, who performed well against him in ’09: .284 compared to right-handers at .185.

On the negative side of Drabek: He’s a little undersized at 6’0”, he’s already had a major surgery, and there have been makeup/maturity concerns.

Michael Taylor had a solid but unspectacular college career at Stanford and signed with the Phillies as a fifth-rounder in ’07. The outfielder is a good athlete for his size (6’6”, 250 lbs) and stole 21 bases in 26 tries in ’09. The right-handed hitter, who hits right-handed and left-handed pitchers equally well, began the year in double-A. There, he hit .333/.408/.569 with an ISO of .236 in 318 at-bats. He’s not a big average hitter, despite what the basic numbers suggest and he was aided by a BABIP of .361. In 110 at-bats in triple-A, Taylor hit .282/.359/.491 with an ISO of .209. He projects to be a .270-.290 hitter in the Majors with 25 homers could even produce a couple of 20-20 seasons. He consistently walks about 10% of the time and keeps the strikeouts in check for a power hitter (around 17-18%). Defensively, Taylor has a solid arm and has spent much of his time in the minors flipping between left and right field.

Travis D’Arnaud is a former highly-regarded prep draft pick. The ’07 supplemental first rounder has actually been surpassed as a prospect by his older brother Chase D’Arnaud, a shortstop who was a fourth-round pick of the Pirates out of Pepperdine University in ’08. Nonetheless, the 20-year-old catcher had a solid ’09 season in low-A ball and hit .255/.319/.419 in 482 at-bats. The right-handed hitter has some developing pop (.164 ISO) and modest strikeout rates (15.6% in ’09). His triple-slash line was hurt by a low .279 BABIP, which was down significantly from his ’08 mark of .345. D’Arnaud is a good athlete and he stole eight bases in 12 tries, but he’ll certainly slow down as the rigors of the position take its toll on his knees. Despite a strong arm, the young catcher has struggled to throw out base runners in pro ball and was successful 23% of the time in ’09.

Philadelphia Phillies’ Haul:
You certainly cannot question Phillippe Aumont’s fastball. He has a high-90s fastball and good sink but his secondary stuff is raw and he prefers to just reach back and toss heat, which is the main reason why he was moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen at such a young age. An inexperienced Canadian prep pick, Aumont was pushed aggressively by Seattle after he dominated high-A ball in a very good hitter’s league. He allowed just 24 hits in 33.1 innings and posted a strikeout rate of 9.45 K/9. Moved up to double-A, Aumont’s control suffered as his walk rate jumped from 3.24 to 5.60 BB/9. Batters also managed 21 hits in 17.2 innings, and his BABIP jumped to .436 BABIP. His strikeout rate was an impressive 12.23 K/9. Like many Canadian hurlers, there have also been injury concerns with Aumont, and he missed significant time in ’08 with elbow soreness.

You’d think it was the Phillies club that played in Canada, not the Jays. Outfielder Tyson Gillies joins Aumont as the two Canadians on the move in the Halladay deal. The 21-year-old outfielder had a breakout season in ’09 but some caution needs to be used with him. The left-handed hitter was playing in a very good hitter’s park and his overall line was .341/.430/.486. He hit .313 in ’08 but that was aided by a BABIP of .403 (His BABIP was high in ’09, as well, at .395). Gillies has a lot of speed and he stole 44 bases but was caught 19 times this past season, so he has some work to do on the base paths. On the positive side, he has solid plate rates for a speedster and he posted a walk rate of 10.8%, as well as a strikeout rate of 16.3%. Defensively, he’s considered a gifted fielder with an above-average arm.

J.C. Ramirez has posted solid pro numbers but has yet to truly breakout. The right-hander spent ’09 in high-A, while pitching in a good hitter’s park, and allowed 153 hits in 142.1 innings. His walk rate was respectable at 3.35 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was OK at 7.02, although it was down more than one strikeout per nine over his career mark. He was touched up for 18 homers (1.14 HR/9) but he held batters to a line-drive rate of just 12%. Ramirez has consistently struggled against left-handed batters in his career (.290 average, 4.32 BB/9 in ’09), so he’s going to have to develop a weapon to combat them. His repertoire includes a fastball that sits in the low-90s but can hit the mid-to-upper 90s at times. Ramirez also has a solid slider and a developing change-up.