Archive for Wandy Rodriguez

Prior to the trade deadline, many expected the Pittsburgh Pirates to leverage their talented farm system to acquire an impact bat. After all, their offense has a combined .302 wOBA, and they penciled in a batting order on Tuesday evening that featured five players (not including the pitcher) with an on-base percentage below .300.

That big bat may still be in the cards this week, but the Pirates temporarily shifted their focus to the starting rotation and acquired southpaw Wandy Rodriguez from the Houston Astros in return for three minor league players — outfielder Robbie Grossman and lefties Colton Cain and Rudy Owens.

The starting rotation for the Pirates was not necessarily a pain-point for the organization, as the group had compiled a 3.95 ERA and 3.92 FIP on the season thus far. Room for improvement existed, however, as right-hander Kevin Correia still took the mound every fifth day with a 4.31 ERA and 4.95 FIP. His ZiPS projection throughout the remainder of the season only forecasts pain, too, as it predicts him to post a 5.40 ERA and 4.83 FIP from here on out.

Trading for Wandy Rodriguez allows the Pirates to remove Correia from the starting rotation and replace him with a more consistent, more effective pitcher.

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The Houston Astros continue to shed veteran players and General Manager Jeff Luhnow made one of his better trades in terms of prospect value, although none of the three players are A-level young stars. The additions of pitchers Rudy Owens and Colton Cain, as well as outfielder Robbie Grossman adds more depth to the rebuilding Astros and is more than a fair return for left-handed starter Wandy Rodriguez.

Owens has a modest ceiling and fits as more of a No. 4 starter; I ranked him as the 13th best prospect in the Pirates system entering 2012. The 24-year-old southpaw has spent the last two seasons at the triple-A level and made big strides this year, lowering his ERA from 5.05 to 3.14. He’s also cut his hits-allowed rate from 10.34 to 8.59 H/9. Owens could easily slide into the Astros’ starting rotation right now and pitch as well of better than Dallas Keuchel and/or Lucas Harrell.

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The Houston Astros are far from the worst team in baseball this season, but their ability to seriously contend in the near future is largely based upon the rebuilding effort that was fully implemented the moment Jeff Luhnow took over. Luhnow inherited a team with a poor farm system — ranked #27 by Marc Hulet — that was high on right-handed pitching and nearly devoid of high-ceiling bats.

He also walked into a sub-par major league situation, with a strange mix of pricey veterans and underwhelming youngsters. There were bright spots in both the major and minor leagues, but Luhnow took the job knowing very well that the organization was more than a mere move or two away from turning things around.

Luckily, he brought with him a strong reputation for building from within. The Astros finally started the rebuilding process last season under Ed Wade by trading Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence, and entered this past offseason with long-term goals that took precedent over short-term — and short-lived — success.

The organization was interested in a solution, not a band-aid, and ownership seemed more than willing to experience losing seasons if management did everything in its power to essentially hit the reset button. With one-third of the season in the books, the Astros are getting closer to the point where decisions need to be made and actions taken with respect to several rostered players whose departures could aid and potentially expedite the rebuilding process.

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Very quietly, Houston Astros lefty Wandy Rodriguez ranked among the better starters in the National League over the past few seasons. The man once known as Eny Cabreja made a name for himself from 2007 to 2009, striking out 8.25 batters per nine innings, walking 2.89 per nine, and posting a 3.81 xFIP that ranked in the top 20 among NL starters.

It hasn’t been a banner year for Rodriguez, though. Through his first 13 starts, the 31-year-old has been lit up for a 5.60 ERA. That’s the highest mark among qualified NL starters. Has Wandy lost his magic?

While Rodriguez isn’t pitching at the same level as he did over the ’07 to ’09 period, his ERA does overstate the extent of his struggles — his FIP is 4.41 and his xFIP is 4.49. Rodriguez has been plagued by a .353 BABIP, second-highest among qualified Senior Circuit starters and well above his .314 career figure. Further, his rate of stranding runners on base has dipped to 62.5 percent; the MLB average is in the 70-72 percent range, and Rodriguez’s career left on base rate is 69.4 percent.

So, Wandy hasn’t really been among the worst starters in the league. But he’s still falling well short of his pre-season forecasts. ZiPS projected 8.13 K/9, 2.81 BB/9 and a 3.78 FIP, while CHONE envisioned 8.16 K/9, 2.95 BB/9 and a 3.80 FIP. So far, Rodriguez has punched out 6.22 hitters per nine frames and issued 3.73 BB/9.

Unsurprisingly, with those strikeout and walk totals, Rodriguez is missing fewer bats, putting fewer pitches in the zone, and is getting behind in the count more than usual. From 2007 to 2009, he garnered swinging strikes 8.7 percent of the time, slightly above the 8.6 percent MLB average over that period. He located 52.3 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, with the MLB average ranging from 49.3 to 51.1 percent. Rodriguez threw a first pitch strike 60 percent, besting the 58 percent big league average.

In 2010, however, his swinging strike rate is 7.6 percent (8.2 MLB average), his zone percentage is 45.5 (47.3 MLB average) and his rate of first pitch strikes is 58.2 (58.3 MLB average).

According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Rodriguez is throwing more two-seam fastballs at the expense of four-seamers this season. Maybe it’s a classification quirk, but that would help explain his career-high 47.5 ground ball rate. Rodriguez is throwing the two-seamer for strikes (65 percent, compared to the 61.9 percent MLB average), but the pitch gets few whiffs — 4.3 percent, as opposed to the 8.4 percent MLB average.

When Wandy does throw a four-seamer, the pitch is rarely on the mark. The four-seamer has been thrown for strikes just 52.7 percent (64.1 MLB average), with a 3.2 percent whiff rate (6 percent MLB average). Batters are swinging at the pitch only 29.3 percent of the time (44.6 big league average). By contrast, Rodriguez threw the pitch for a strike about 66 percent of the time in 2008 and 2009, with an average whiff rate and a swing percentage in the low-forties.

His signature mid-70’s curveball hasn’t been as sharp, either. Rodriguez has induced a strike with the curve 60.3 percent in 2010, which is still above the 58 percent MLB average, but falls short of his 63.2 percent mark in 2009 and 62.4 percent figure in 2008. The whiff rate on his curve is 12.4 percent, down from 14 percent in 2009 and 14.2 percent in 2008 (10.5 percent MLB average).

After losing his arbitration hearing over the winter, Rodriguez is earning $5 million this season. He’s arbitration-eligible again next year, so he’s under team control through 2011. Given his track record of quality pitching over the past few seasons, Houston’s place in the standings and the team’s moribund (at least until recently) player development system, Rodriguez could find himself on the trading block. Whether the Astros choose to keep him or swap him, the club could surely use the ’07 to ’09 version of Wandy Rodriguez, as opposed to the merely adequate pitcher on display so far this season.

The outlook is bleak for the Houston Astros this season, but as with any potential non-contender in any given season, it is safe to expect some extremely impressive spurts of performance from both position players and pitchers. Cecil Cooper’s gang currently sits at 4-8, but entering Monday’s action their starting pitchers had thrown 21.2 straight scoreless innings. While this feat does not necessarily battle the dominance on display thus far from Zack Greinke, how can we not be impressed that a foursome consisting of Russ Ortiz, Felipe Paulino and Wandy Rodriguez have pieced together a streak like this?

It all started last Thursday, when Ortiz toed the rubber against Jeff Karstens and the Pirates. Ortiz surrendered three earned runs in the first two innings and left after just 4.2 frames due to throwing 99 pitches. He settled down a bit after the second inning and held the Pirates scoreless in the third and fourth as well as his action in the fifth. After clocking out of work, Ortiz had the rather pedestrian line of 4.2 IP-5 H-3 ER-2 BB-2 K and had accrued a WPA of just -0.062. The Astros went onto win, however, and the streak for the starting rotation began.

On Friday, ace Roy Oswalt got the call and delivered a solid performance, holding the Reds scoreless over six innings of work. He did issue three free passes in his outing, uncharacteristic of Oswalt, and the relief corps failed the stalwart righty as the Reds won 2-1. Despite the loss the scoreless innings streak for their starters had increased to 8.2 innings.

The very next day, Wandy Rodriguez bested Oswalt with a very dominant performance. Rodriguez scattered two hits and two walks over seven scoreless innings, fanning 10 batters in the process. His 0.369 WPA helped the Astros beat Aaron Harang and the Reds 7-0, increasing the streak to 15.2 scoreless innings.

When rookie Felipe Paulino extended the streak on Sunday, the Astros lost once again, which speaks volumes for something, be it the early effectiveness of the rotation or early ineffectiveness of the relievers. Paulino was opposed by Edinson Volquez, and added six scoreless frames to the streak, striking out six batters and walking two. Unfortunately, the Astros hitters could not capitalize on the wildness of Volquez and the triumvirate of Tim Byrdak, Chris Sampson, and Geoff Geary allowed four runs after Paulino’s departure.

Mike Hampton started tonight, and after retiring two batters to increase the streak to 22.1 scoreless innings, he surrendered a two-run single to Edwin Encarnacion in the top of the first inning. The streak is now over but their rotation sure stringed together some impressive performances over the last few days.