Archive for Will Ohman

The Florida Marlins snagged some lefty relief in exchange for an injury-prone Dutchman in a low-key deadline deal, acquiring Will Ohman from the Baltimore Orioles for RHP Rick VandenHurk.

While Leo Nunez and Clay Hensley have turned in strong seasons, Florida’s relief corps ranks 11th in the National League in xFIP (4.36) and 14th in Win Probability Added (-1.5). Dan Meyer pitched capably last season after washing out of the Athletics’ system, but he has a 4/12 K/BB ratio in 9.1 big league innings this year and hasn’t done much to redeem himself at Triple-A (12/7 K/BB, 5.26 FIP in 21 IP). Control-challenged Renyel Pinto was let go earlier this season and has since signed with St. Louis. Taylor Tankersley (career -0.8 WAR in 114.2 major league innings) doesn’t inspire confidence.

As such, the Fish sought a seasoned lefty and got one in Ohman. Whether he helps much is subject to debate, though. The soon-to-be-33-year-old missed most of the 2009 season following left shoulder surgery and signed a minor league contract with the O’s this past winter. He’s got a nice-looking 3.30 ERA, but with over five walks per nine frames handed out, Ohman holds a 4.40 xFIP in 30 IP. His career xFIP versus lefties is 3.62, compared to 4.92 against right-handers. Ohman has been moderately useful against same-handed opponents, but left-handed batters aren’t trembling at the prospect of facing the former Cub, Brave and Dodger.

From Baltimore’s perspective, the club gives up a guy with a 4.76 projected FIP from ZiPS for a 25-year-old with a history of missing lumber and missing starts. Originally signed out of the Netherlands back in 2002, VandenHurk has struck out nearly a batter per inning during the course of his minor league career, with 3.8 BB/9. He sits 91-92 MPH with his fastball, mixing in a hard mid-80’s slider and a changeup.

He comes with plenty of drawbacks, though. For one, the 6-5 righty can’t stay healthy — he scarcely pitched at all in 2005 and 2006 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, missed time in 2008 with ulnar neuritis and was put on the shelf with elbow inflammation last season. VandenHurk is also an extreme fly ball pitcher, with a 37 GB% in the minors since 2005 according to Minor League Splits. That leads to lots of round trippers. In 155.2 major league innings over the 2007-2010 seasons, Rick has gotten grounders just 27.8% of the time. As a result, he has surrendered 1.56 HR/9, and that’s without a sky-high home run per fly ball rate (12.3%). VandenHurk has fooled plenty of hitters (8.79 K/9 in the majors). But all those big flies, coupled with ample walks (4.63 BB/9), have led to a 5.19 FIP and a 4.87 xFIP.

Chances are, this trade won’t have a profound effect on either team. Ohman’s a so-so southpaw, and VandenHurk can’t seem to stay off the DL for any sustained length of time. Still, the swap gives the Marlins a better lefty than Tankersley and the O’s a live arm who could play some part on the next relevant Baltimore club.

Well, folks, it is official: Will Ohman has inked a contract, saying goodbye to the free agent market for at least one more season. After much speculation with regards to who he would end up pitching for this season, Ohman signed an incentive-laden minor league deal with the Dodgers, essentially replacing former lefty specialist Joe Beimel. As recently as two weeks ago, up to six teams were interested in his services, but it had to be on their terms, resulting in Ohman’s asking price taking a significant hit.

The deal with the Dodgers will apparently be worth a base of $1.35 mil should Ohman make the team, with up to $200K in incentives. It also features an option for 2010 valued at $2 mil, with the ability for Ohman to be bought out at $200K.

Ohman realistically should have no problem making the team as he has been one of the better relief pitchers over the last few seasons. Granted, the small sample sizes of innings prevents relievers from accruing solid win values totals, but Ohman has averaged +0.7 wins the last three years while improving his K/BB ratio and FIP and GB/FB. In fact, for the first time last year Ohman actually induced more grounders than flyballs.

Ohman has been dynamite against lefties over the last four years, even holding the same-handed hitters to a paltry .200/.257/.314 line. His projection for 2009 looks similar to the numbers posted in 2006, producing somewhere in the +0.6 to +0.8 win range. At any interval he would more than earn the max $1.55 mil stipulated in his contract, regardless of how much the average dollars/win rate may have fallen this year.

It may seem odd that one of the better relievers, especially one whose asking price consistently lowered, would not be given a guaranteed contract, but Ohman should have no trouble ensuring that he earns all of the money available. Joe Beimel left the Dodgers and after an almost equally long wait, signed a $2 mil deal with the Washington Nationals. The Dodgers were able to replace his services with Ohman, a better strikeout pitcher with an advantage in the walks department as well as a history of more stable home run rates unlike Beimel’s 0.13 and 0.00 HR/9 marks the last two years, and they were able to save at least $450K.

All in all, a great signing, I’m glad it’s over, and in any other year I would be shocked it took so long, but this has not been your typical offseason by any stretch of the imagination. When Chan Ho Park is given a guaranteed $2.5 mil and Will Ohman has to make the major league team to get a base of $1.35 mil, you know something is up.

With the marquis free agent relievers all reporting to their new digs and Juan Cruz figuring out exactly what the heck is going on with his status, much attention has been turned to three lefty relievers: Will Ohman, Dennys Reyes, and Joe Beimel. While Reyes and Beimel have been linked to a couple of different teams, both apparently pale in comparison to Will Ohman, who now has six teams vying for his services. Ohman, 31, spent last season with the Atlanta Braves after four years with the Chicago Cubs.

In 58.2 innings spread over 83 games, Ohman posted a 3.17 FIP that proved good enough to add +0.9 wins to the Braves. This mark isn’t too far off his three-year average of +0.7 wins, which is close to his projection next season. At fair market value, +0.7 wins would command between $3 and $3.2 mil. If that fee seems a bit on the high side, perhaps the more realistic fair market value for such production falls in the $2.2-$2.6 mil range. Being able to sign an effective lefty like Ohman for somewhere in that range of salaries would be a relative steal, yet the teams interested in acquiring the quirky lefty do not feel the same.

In fact, several are reported to be unlikely to go past $1 mil with Ohman. Ohman currently has offers on the table from the Pirates, Padres, and Marlins, but is waiting to hear back from the Phillies, Mets, and Dodgers. The Phillies would be a nice fit for Ohman given the suspension to JC Romero, but Ruben Amaro Jr does not seem too keen on paying $2-$3 mil to a pitcher who will realistically just fill in for two months of the season. The Mets seem to feel the same way given the upgrades made to their bullpen. Adding Ohman would be nice but they aren’t going to “break the bank” to bring him in.

If the reports that the Pirates, Padres, and Marlins—teams that have made Ohman offers—are not willing to go past $1 mil on a 1-yr deal are true, and that the contending teams with interest do not want to “overpay” it becomes quite possible that Ohman’s salary in 2009 might decline by 40 percent following the best season he has put together.

And if Ohman signs first, does that then increase the value of both Reyes and Beimel given the lower supply of available and effective relievers? Perhaps Ohman would like to see Beimel or Reyes sign first and use those contracts as leverage. Unfortunately, while teams have expressed interest, it is halfway through February and negotiations have not even begun for several of these suitors. These are certainly strange times and it is even odder to consider a 40% forced paycut on only a 1-yr deal to someone like Ohman coming a year after Francisco Cordero received his ridiculously lucrative 4-yr deal.