Archive for WPA

The end of each season brings with it a few certainties: eight teams make the playoffs, one team wins the world series, and we are likely to argue or debate about which player’s performance merits the Most Valuable Player award. Some years house less debates than others but the award’s definition is so ambiguous that there are usually a few players that meet the loose “criteria.” By definition, the MVP award was spawned from the idea back in 1922 to honor the player “who is of greatest all-round service to his club and credit to the sport during each season; to recognize and reward uncommon skill and ability when exercised by a player for the best interests of his team, and to perpetuate his memory.”

Now, in 21st century language, this translates to the player who was most valuable to his team; the player who, if removed from his team, would hinder the success of the team the most; the player the team cannot live without. From a statistical standpoint this would seem to refer to which player contributed the most wins to his team. Luckily, we have a statistic for that here, known none other as WPA.

I decided to look at the win probability statistics for all years currently on Fangraphs (1974-2007) in order to see if the definition of MVP has held true, as well as see the average total and rank for a few of these statistics. The stats in question are WPA, WPA/LI, and Clutch. WPA/LI refers to context-neutral wins and so the different game states comprising plate appearances are not taken into account. Clutch, which I will discuss a bit more in-depth later tonight, measures a player’s performance in high leverage situations against his performance in all others.

Using just the National League for now, I recorded the WPA, WPA/LI, and Clutch, as well as the league ranks, for all MVPs from 1974-2007. The only exceptions were Chipper Jones in 1999, since we don’t currently have that year recorded, and Willie Stargell’s co-award in 1979; according to the league leaders page he didn’t even qualify that year. After calculating the average scores and ranks, here are the results:

WPA: 6.10, Rank: 3.88
WPA/LI: 6.11, Rank: 3.48
Clutch: -0.15, Rank: 19.69

A few things initially stand out. First, the average WPA and WPA/LI are virtually identical. Second, the average rank for MVPs in these categories is between 3rd and 4th. Lastly, the average clutch score is negative.

Of the 33 NL MVPs recorded, 14 finished #1 in WPA; 15 were #1 in WPA/LI; and nobody finished #1 in clutch. In fact, just 3 of the 33 finished in the top ten, the highest being Steve Garvey’s second place rank in 1974 (the other two were Kirk Gibson as #8 in 1988 and Bonds as #6 in 2004). So, despite the hoopla surrounding clutch ability prevalent in today’s mainstream media, it has not necessarily translated into MVP success.

Now, of the 17 players who won the award while posting negative clutch scores, 13 finished 1st-4th in WPA while finishing 1st or 2nd in WPA/LI. The only negative clutch scores that did not were the following players, with their WPA and WPA/LI ranks in parenthesis:

1987: Andre Dawson (19,11)
1991: Terry Pendleton (9,7)
2000: Jeff Kent (7,7)
2005: Albert Pujols (5,2)

Of those with positive clutch scores, 7 of 16 finished 5th or lower in WPA, 6 of 16 finished 5th or lower in WPA/LI, and just 3/16 were in the top ten in clutch.

The highest WPA in this span belongs to (guess who?) Barry Bonds, with a 12.63 in 2004. In fact, from 2001-2004, Bonds averaged 10.79 wins contributed. All four of those seasons ranked in the top four, with Ryan Howard’s 8.10 in 2006 being the only other above eight wins. The lowest two WPA scores came with Dawson’s 1987 season (2.84) and Jimmy Rollins last year with a 2.69. The highest WPA/LI totals were Barry Bonds 2001-2004 and fifth place happened to be Bonds in 1993. Again, the lowest belonged to Jimmy Rollins.

It appears that clutch has not factored into NL MVP voting since at least 1974 and that those with great all around numbers/win contributions have been more than capable of winning the award while seeing a decline in their performance during high leverage situations. I tried to see if anyone this year matched up with the average ranks but the results were not too strong. Lance Berkman is currently 1st in WPA, 1st in WPA/LI, and 15th in clutch, which was the closest. When we get closer to the end of the season it should be interesting to see which players come closest to these averages, if not exceeding them.

With the new design of the home page up and running I recently noticed that Orioles closer George Sherrill not only has the oldest-sounding name in baseball but also leads all relievers with a 2.03 WPA. Sherrill, part of the Erik Bedard trade, has 17 saves out of the Orioles 23 wins; his saves:team wins percentage of 73.9 leads all closers as well.

Something interesting about his success—other than the fact that five of his saves have come against his former employer Seattle—is his higher than expected 3.43 ERA. Granted, ERA is not too useful of a barometer when analyzing the efforts of a closer, but his high saves total and high WPA led me to believe he has been shutting down opponents with the greatest of ease.

A closer look at his game logs shows that, of his 8 earned runs allowed, three have come in non-save situations and another two in his blown saves. In all successfully converted saves, Sherrill has allowed just three earned runs. Despite this relative success, there are four other closers who have been performing extremely well while surrendering next to nothing, regardless of whether or not their appearances coincide with blown saves or non-save situations.

Billy Wagner: 16 GP, 17 IP, 9 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 19 K
Brad Lidge: 19 GP, 19 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 8 BB, 21 K
BJ Ryan: 14 GP, 14 IP, 11 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 17 K
Mariano Rivera: 16 GP, 17 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K

Here are the averages of these four stacked up next to Sherrill:

Sherrill: 21 GP, 21 IP, 13 H, 8 ER, 10 BB, 16 K
Others: 16 GP, 17 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 17 K

Another interesting area to look at is the situation in which the closer entered. Coming into a bases loaded, no out situation with a one-run lead is much different than entering into a nobody on, one out situation with a two-run lead. The statistic gmLI measures the difficulty level when the pitcher entered the game. Here are the average gmLIs of these five closers:

Wagner: 1.34
Lidge: 1.83
Ryan: 2.10
Rivera: 1.65
Sherrill: 2.21

Generally speaking, the average LI, or neutral event, is 1.00; 10% of all events will be over 2.00.

Sherrill has the highest average gmLI of the five while Wagner has the lowest. While it is definitely remarkable that Wagner is yet to surrender an earned run—he has given up 4 unearned runs—it looks as though Sherrill has been less successful in preventing runs due to pitching in much tougher situations.

These other four may have better peripherals, but do not let Sherrill’s ERA fool you: In just 21 innings pitched he has contributed two wins while pitching in tough situations.

One of the hot topics during spring training revolved around the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and how this would be the year they experienced significant improvement. Photos surfaced of an interesting shirt Troy Percival donned on which he compared Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza to John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Steve Avery. Steve Phillips added fuel to this fire by repeatedly mentioning how the shirt compared the three Rays youngsters to Greg Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz. With no disrespect towards Avery, he is not Greg Maddux, and any comparison to one of the best pitching trios in the history of the game is going to generate some buzz. As of right now, Kazmir is yet to pitch and Garza has not yet met expectations; Shields, however, has pitched quite well.

Great pitching trios are so valuable for the more obvious reason that, over the course of any given three game series, the team is likely assured of having at least one solid starter on the mound. Seeing as April is about to come to a close I decided to take a look at the WPA totals of starting pitchers from 2002 until now to generate a basic list of the best recent pitching trios. The only real “rule” stipulated that all three of the pitchers needed to have a positive WPA. For instance, last year, the combination of CC Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, and Paul Byrd accounted for a WPA of 7.13. This would normally qualify as second-best across the league, but the numbers broke down as follows: Carmona at 4.25, Sabathia at 3.49, Byrd at -0.61. Clearly the WPA total belonged to CC and Fausto; Byrd actually brought their total down. Here are the top trios from 2002 until now:

2002 – Athletics: Barry Zito (3.85), Tim Hudson (3.28), Mark Mulder (3.15)
2003 – Cubs: Mark Prior (4.37), Kerry Wood (4.05), Carlos Zambrano (2.46)
2004 – Twins: Johan Santana (5.52), Brad Radke (3.61), Carlos Silva (0.61)
2005 – Astros: Roger Clemens (5.77), Andy Pettitte (4.86), Roy Oswalt (3.91)
2006 – Tigers: N. Robertson (2.92), Justin Verlander (2.29), Kenny Rogers (2.21)
2007 – Padres: Jake Peavy (4.61), Chris Young (2.67), Greg Maddux (1.17)

A month into this 2008 season and there are three rotations very close to each other: the Cardinals (2.20), Mariners (2.11), and Angels (2.08). The Cardinals trio in question is Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, and Braden Looper; the Mariners are Felix Hernandez, Carlos Silva, and Jarrod Washburn; the Angels are Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, and Jered Weaver.

Update: The Indians can also be thrown into the mix, but not with Sabathia. The combo of Lee, Carmona, and Westbrook are currently at 2.35. Add them into your consideration. As I mentioned in the comments, though, for potential Mariners fans reading here, Bedard does not count because he does not qualify for inclusion yet. Clearly he is a better choice than Washburn, but the question pertains to the aforementioned threesomes.

Felix Hernandez is the best of the nine pitchers comprising these three teams but, overall, none of them appear to be on the same level as some of the aforementioned trios. Here’s the question: If you had to win a three-game series, which of these three 2008 trios would you pick, and which of the 2002-2007 trios would you pick?