The 2018 Replacement-Level Killers: Catcher
In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters, yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing subpar production to fester at the risk of killing a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’s 2007 book It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical all-star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. It’s a concept I’ve revisited on several occasions over the past decade, both at BP and beyond, albeit not for a while. With the trade deadline looming, this seems an ideal moment to dust it off and identify some of the bigger holes at each position among contenders.
When it comes to defining replacement-level play, we needn’t be slaves to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 1.0 WAR from a position to this point might be considered fair game, even if in some cases that means an above-average starter and ghastly backups. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which, of course may depend upon which metric one views) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. In theory, a team may be well ahead of replacement level at a given position but has lost a key contributor due to injury. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it.
For this series, I’ll start with the catchers and go around the diamond, pointing out the most egregious examples of potential Killers at each position among contenders, which I’ll define as teams with playoff odds of at least 15.0%, a definition that currently covers 15 teams (sorry, Angels, Giants, and Pirates, and fuhgeddabout it, Mets and Blue Jays). I’m less focused on these teams’ solutions; colleague Dan Szymborski will examine the potential trade candidates at each position.
| Rk | Team | Bat | BsR | Field | Framing* | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nationals | -25.4 | -2.0 | 1.0 | -0.8 | -0.8 |
| 29 | Red Sox | -18.4 | -3.3 | -1.0 | 10.8 | -0.2 |
| 27 | Rockies | -20.1 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 6.1 | -0.1 |
| 25 | D-backs | -16.6 | -1.1 | -1.0 | 17.4 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Brewers | -13.6 | -3.4 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| 21 | Indians | -13.6 | -0.6 | -2.0 | 6.2 | 0.4 |
| 20 | Athletics | -15.2 | -3.3 | 3.0 | -4.0 | 0.5 |
| 19 | Mariners | -11.6 | -2.8 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 0.7 |
My, but there are a whole bunch of contending teams getting very little of tangible value from their backstops, at least according to our WAR measurements, which don’t include pitch framing — and in this day and age, it’s certainly a good idea to include pitch framing, so I’ve included Baseball Prospectus’s metrics in that department; as with the batting, baserunning, and fielding categories, those are in runs rather than wins, but unlike that aforementioned trio, they’re not included in the WAR shown above.
Once we include framing, it’s fair to excuse the Diamondbacks’ light-hitting trio (Alex Avila, Jeff Mathis, and John Ryan Murphy) from further discussion despite their collective 65 wRC+ to date. We can also probably rule out the Indians, who are getting solid work from starter Yan Gomes (93 wRC+, 1.1 WAR, 2.6 framing runs), if not from backup Roberto Perez (21 wRC+, -0.7 WAR, 3.6 framing runs); their best shot at an upgrade was just traded to San Diego in the Brad Hand deal, namely prospect Francisco Mejia. Finally, while the Mariners’ Mike Zunino hasn’t hit this year (.189/.251/.403, 80 wRC+), his 122 wRC+ over the past two seasons, strong framing work (including 5.0 runs this year), and recent return from the disabled list for a bruised left ankle indicate better days might be ahead.
That still leaves five teams that should have catching concerns to one degree or another. Working from the order of the table above, from the worst to the most borderline…
Nationals
Between oblique and hamstring injuries, Matt Wieters has been limited to 29 games, 100 PA, a 73 wRC+ (.207.303/.333), and 0.1 WAR this season, while backups Spencer Kieboom, Pedro Severino (now at Triple A) and the since-DFA’d Miguel Montero haven’t been to the task of replacing him. That quartet as a whole has combined for a 44 wRC+, 12 points lower than any other team’s catchers. While Wieters returned from a two-month absence on July 9, he’s 3-for-22 with one walk since coming back, and in light of last year’s sub-replacement level performance (62 wRC+, -0.3 WAR), it’s time to admit that he’s a shell of his former self. It’s Wieters’ slash line that makes Chuck Norris cry like a little girl now.
Whether it’s trading for former National Wilson Ramos (who just hit the disabled list with a hamstring strain) or cloning the long-retired Brian Schneider — the only other catcher in Nationals’ history besides Ramos with at least 1.0 career WAR for the team — something needs to be done. Heyyy, wasn’t Bryce Harper a catcher in his amateur days?
Red Sox
For all of his defensive prowess — which has amounted to a net of 13 Defensive Runs Saved since the start of 2016 — Christian Vazquez has never learned to hit. This year, he’s batting just .213/.249/.300 (46 wRC+), and just before the All-Star break, he suffered a fractured right pinky that required surgery and will keep him sidelined for six to eight weeks, meaning a late August return at best. Neither backup Sandy Leon (72 wRC+, 0.2 WAR, 5.8 framing runs), nor catcher-turned-utilityman-turned-catcher Blake Swihart (38 wRC+, -0.4 WAR) — remember when he was such a hot trade commodity the Red Sox wouldn’t give him up in a potential 2015 deal for Cole Hamels? — appear up to the task of regular duty, and Jason Varitek ain’t walking through that door.
Rockies
Starter Chris Iannetta’s batting line (.227/.327/.381) would be passable for a catcher in a a lower-scoring environment, but as it is, his 76 wRC+ is just one more sinkhole in an offense that has too many of them: eight of their 12 players with at least 100 PA have a wRC+ of 90 or lower. What’s more, Iannetta’s framing has been all over the map, with swings from +16.4 runs in 2015 to -10.2 and then +11.0 runs in each of the past two seasons, but now he’s back in the red (-0.3). A bold move here might be to take a longer look at Tom Murphy, who has hit .291/.316/.455 in 57 PA this year and owns a career 87 wRC+ with nine homers in 171 PA, but the Rockies seemed more inclined to give reps to Tony Wolters, who’s hitting only .156/.273/.262 for a 36 wRC+ — that after seasons of 49 and 77. Somehow, he’s hit all of five homers in 639 PA over the last three seasons while calling Coors Field home. He’s a good framer, at least (6.7 runs), but the races for the NL West flag and a Wild Card spot are tough enough for the Rockies without an extra handicap.
Brewers
The Brewers hoped that Stephen Vogt would do a substantial share of the catching, but a spring shoulder strain and then a more severe strain involving his rotator cuff, labrum, and anterior capsule while on rehab necessitated season-ending surgery. Neither starter Manny Pina (.231/.297/.377, 79 wRC+) nor backup Erik Kratz (.231/.268/.372, 69 wRC+) have hit or done much inspiring on defense, though the latter now has a 4.50 ERA and 2.66 FIP in two innings of mop-up relief work this season, the second of which was on Sunday. That only furthers the separation between him and the farmed-out on Jett Bandy, best known for a name that “sounds like something George Lucas would come up with while extremely distracted.”
Athletics
That the A’s have played their way into the AL Wild Card hunt is a surprise. That they’ve done so while starter Jonathan Lucroy has been dreadful on both sides of the ball (.241/.296/.311, 69 wRC+, -2.7 framing runs, and -9 DRS) is an even bigger surprise given the extent to which he once ranked among the game’s elite catchers. His decline, as Jeff Sullivan documented this spring, is something of a mystery. Neither current backup Josh Phegley nor the farmed-out Bruce Maxwell has been much help. While 2016 third-round pick Sean Murphy is currently hitting .291/.359/.506 at Double-A Midland and rates as a 50 FV prospect, a broken hamate cost him a chance to play in the Futures Game and will sideline him until mid-August; an accelerated path to the majors probably isn’t in the cards. Lucroy’s $6.5 million salary and solid projection going forward (0.8 WAR) will probably be enough for him to keep his job, but if the A’s are serious about this contending thing, they could use more help.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
The thing I find interesting about Wieters right now- despite his numbers- the Nats starters pitch almost all better with Wieters than they did Severino.
by ERA:
Scherzer 2.22 Wieters/2.56 Severino
Strasburg 2.57 Severino/5.06 Wieters
Gonzalez 2.38 Wieters/5.35 Severino
Roark 4.15 Wieters/4.48 Severino
Hellickson 1.65 Wieters/4.17 Severino
So only Strasburg better with Severino than he was with Wieters. Gonzalez and Hellickson much better with Wieters.
Team ERA with Wieters is 3.42 to 3.61 for Severino and 4.56 for Kieboom.
Is that you, Scott Boras?
I pulled a list of catchers with 100 PAs minimum and who are playing for teams likely to be sellers that were having adequate years.
JT Realmuto
Wilson Ramos
Omar Narvaez
Robinson Chirinos
AJ Ellis (what?)
Devin Mesoraco
Kevin Plawecki
Elias Diaz
John Hicks
Francisco Cervelli (but the concussions…)
We keep hearing that the Marlins keep insisting for a world-crushing return for Realmuto, and the conventional wisdom is that in the offseason there are more buyers so they’ll wait if they can’t get what they want. I’m not so sure, since there are also FA options in the offseason.
Plawecki probably isn’t available, and he’d probably also cost the most behind Realmuto. But he’d be a great fit if he was. They’d be much more interested in trading Mesoraco. I would guess the same is true for Eliaz Dias–probably not getting traded.
Ramos is hurt now, but I would probably still trade for him simply because the other options are so putrid (and because he could probably be had just for salary relief and an FV40). BP hates Chirinos’ framing, but if a team thinks he’s better than that he’d be a good option.
I think between Mesoraco, Ramos, Chirinos, and Hicks there’s enough other options that a team can get a replacement without paying so much money for Realmuto, but the options are scarce enough that they really should consider moving him now.
I don’t see why Plawecki wouldn’t be available at this point, but I also don’t see anyone having enough to trade for him to make it worth the Mets’ while to sell low on him rather than keep playing him and d’Arnaud into next year and hoping for a breakout from one of them.
I don’t think the Mets would be selling low on Plawecki. He’s run an above-average wRC+ (career best) this year after not looking like he could hit at all, and while the metrics are down on his framing he has been a plus framer in previous years.
You’d think someone would have paid up for JT Realmuto by now.
The price is very justifiably high. I’m sure every one of the above would love to have him, but really only the Brewers and maybe the Rockies could afford the prospects to get him, and it would still hurt a lot. Both have internal options that they’re crossing their fingers and hoping will pan out, so it’s very unlikely they would be interested in meeting the Marlins (probably fair) demands.
The only two contenders who can afford Realmuto, the Yankees and the Dodgers, are already extremely happy with their respective catching situations.
The A’s could definitely afford Realmuto with their farm system.
“The A’s could definitely afford Realmuto with their farm system.”
Yes, but only if they were will to trade all of it for Realmundo.
They could, but they also have Sean Murphy waiting in the wings.
I suspect his low salary means the Marlins aren’t too bothered by holding onto him for a while.
I don’t know what they’re asking for, but considering Depth Charts projects him for a 107 wRC+ going forward, they are probably overplaying their hand if they think they’ll get more later.
I think it was either Jayson Stark or Jerry Crasnick saying on Buster Olney’s podcast during that big Swihart spring training that several scouts said they would take him over Trout. For that scout’s sake, good thing they didn’t work for the Angels, or have any power to push for trades for that matter.
Great Article Jay! Its always been mindboggling to me how advanced fangraphs is in so many ways, but also how prehistoric it is when evaluating catchers. Agree with you, its certainly past due for Fangraphs to include framing to war for catchers.
its 2018 and Framing Runs is still not included in fangraphs war calculation for catchers. Its long past time for that to be included. Currently, if a catcher is phenomenal at framing, the catcher doesn’t get any of that war, and it all goes to the pitcher. The opposite also happens if a catcher is terrible at framing, the pitchers stats are worse off because of it. Walks are higher, whip higher and so on.
For better or worse the pitcher is seeing all the framing war. Its something we can easily quantify and its time fangraphs catches up to pretty much every MLB team in the country and include it in the war. Baseball prospectus does this correct.
Now please everyone hurry up and down vote this for me for being correct and calling it like it is!!!
Oh snap, Fangraphs staff! That’s one, two, THREE exclamation points in a row. This guy is pretty emphatic about Framing Runs and he’s impervious to downvotes so you best fix your WAR formula if you know what’s good for you.
“Its always been mindboggling to me how advanced fangraphs is in so many ways, but also how prehistoric it is when evaluating catchers. Agree with you, its certainly past due for Fangraphs to include framing to war for catchers.”
It is truly long overdue.
Personally, I am still skeptical about framing data. Iannetta’s numbers alone should give sabermetricians pause: +16.4 to -10.2 to +11.0 to -0.3 in consecutive years. What, did he have a wrist injury in two separate years that prevented him from snapping his glove into the strike zone? There are a lot of similar anomalies in the data that everyone just wants to seem to ignore.
Framing is, at once, more important then ever and may be the hardest ‘stat’ to quintify. Even Fangraphs acknowledges that, with the emphasis on framing, the difference between the ‘best’ and ‘worst ‘ has become small enough to be even harder to quintify. Then you have to somehow fold in a pitcher hitting his spots consistently.
Dispute all you want, but JJ is right on, the value of a stud Catcher is impossible to measure.
If you can get a Mejía (god bless the gm who goes for pure upside in todays environment); you do.
Victor Caratini is going to be traded at some point, and fans are going to cry holy hell, but that kid is a ballplayer and has top 10 catcher written all over him.
According to ZiPS and Steamer Lucroy should be passable albeit below average the remainder of the year. The bigger concern for Oakland is the shortage of innings from starters. To wit, Brett Anderson is starting tonight. I’d get a starter and hope for the best from the catchers.
It’s going to be really interesting if(or when) we go to the electronic strike zone how the modern definition of catchers changes.
When the electronic strike zone finally arrives – and it cannot arrive too soon, we need it NOW – the offensive value of catchers will suddenly become much more important.
(Also that []{}#%^*+ Angel Hernandez will no longer be so irritating.)
I would think the throwing part of catching would become much more important as well.
if you really want to make baseball more boring, then automate the strike zone. Might was put a net behind the plate with a bucket back there. While we are at put ghost runners on too. Good luck finding anyone that wants to catch back there with an automated strike zone.
Solid logic
“Good luck finding anyone who wants to be paid millions of dollars to play baseball!”
You know what? I’m going to trust my luck on that one. I think it will pan out.
What about all those catchers who are terrible at framing? I am sure they would be glad to have an automated strike zone.
Might as well add the Phillies to this list. They’ve gotten a surprising amount from their catchers so far but the depth charts are still projecting them dead last for the rest of the season. The production to date seems to be based on UZR scores that my gut tells me are probably generous and .341 and .402 BABIPs from Knapp and Alfaro respectively. Alfaro hits it hard when he’s actually able to make contact and ran high BABIPs in the minors, but right now he’s sitting .50 points higher than any other catcher.
What a fantastic article title. Well done.
Maybe there needs to be a dual DH option to replace those hitters in the lineup that are not raking it.
Please, please, no.
The average team this year has only received +1 WAR from their catchers, compared to other positions, most of which have produced on average +2 WAR for each team. There is a finite amount of WAR to be spread around the league, and Catcher WAR usually does lag behind the other positions, but this year it’s a wasteland. Catcher is the one position where replacement level is pretty much acceptable.
yeah the gap between top to bottom in Catcher WAR is only 4.5. By far the lowest gap in MLB….
C 4.5
1b 8.2
2b 6.3
3b 8.3
ss 6.9
lf 8.5
cf 7.7
rf 7.9
dh 6.4
only because it takes alot of effort to catch all game, call the correct pitches, ensure all the shifts and defensive position is correct. Its no secret catchers are tasked with a bunch , but when fan graphs only gives them war credit for there bat of course its going to have lowest gap. all there effort goes to defense.
Built-in function of catchers playing less than other positions.
There are 7 qualifying hitters at catcher. No other position has less than 20.
Willson Contreras has the most plate appearances for catchers, at 355. That’s 70 less than any other position.
where I think you’re right is that the backup catcher plays far more than the backup at any of the other positions. Whereas at a position like 1b, you’re getting the starting guy 98% of the time and the backup 2%.. Pretty big difference when looking at team ratings.
Contreras is one of the worst pitch framers in baseball. But because he’s a Cub that gets ignored I guess.
Totally. It has nothing to do with the fact that he’s hitting .282/.374/.456, or his powerful and accurate arm, or his blocking skills, or his athleticism on plays around the plate, or…? Yeah framing is important but there are other jobs back there.
This article is discussing overall team WAR from the position, and by that metric Contreras is #2 in the league and the Cubs are #4 in the league as a team. Try harder, troll.
Cubs have given up the most walks in the NL thanks to Contreras. But of course a Cub fan will ignore this, because Contreras can make great plays at the plate. Kind of like Cub fans thinking Baez is a gold glover and better defender at SS than Russell (LOL) because he can make cool and pointless no look tags. When in reality Baez is incredibly mediocre at 2B and flat out bad at SS. Cubs need a catcher who can handle a pitching staff more than anything else
“Cubs need a catcher who can handle a pitching staff more than anything else”
I’d suggest they need to learn how to develop pitching more than anything else…
Do you even watch baseball?
FYI, I’m a Padres fan. I don’t even like the Cubs especially since their first baseman blew up my team’s catcher, but I’ll still stick up against stupid arguments. Wilson Contreras is a valuable player. He might be a bad framer, but he’s still really good. It’s not all his fault the pitching sucks.
I think JJ made it clear that a shitty catcher can be made serviceable by pitch framing (see my earlier comment, but an elite catcher is, priceless….
agreed 100%, guy is bad. Almost cost his team a world series a couple years ago. remember when they werent getting those chapman strikes called right down the middle. guys probably got the weakest hands in mlb. Fans love his bat, but when push comes to shove and the world series is on the line and he cant get strikes called then they blame the umps…maybe its the catchers fault.
I have a real hard timing with framing as a quantifiable stat. Not sure catchers should be penalized if a strike is called a ball because the umpire sucks. Same thing in reverse as well.
Jeff just did a pair of articles on the worst ball and strike calls of the first half. My real question was how did he choose from the several thousand choices he was presented with this season. I wonder how much the catcher’s framing skills can overcome, or even effect, the never ending missed calls that keep overly influencing every game.
Couldn’t you say the same thing about strikeouts and walks for hitters and pitchers then? There’s lots of just bad calls, but I think the hope is that the sample size grows large enough that they even out.
3000-5000 pitches caught and 2 of them don’t make a difference. Statistically meaningless, yet people on here see those 2, and then they cry to get robo umps and start changing the game.
Two pitches? Watch any game where they put up a graphic of the strike zone, and you will see that umpires get many pitches wrong. Even at 95% accuracy, that would be 15 or so missed calls per game.
Scott Boras should be given Wieters eternal gratitude for finding him the Nats deal.
Let’s not be fool enough to think that just because something can be measured or proved to have more value, that baseball was played by neanderthals in days past.
I’m aware enough to know that framing has taken on more importance.
But also that, as long as there have been pitching, catching and umpires, the strike zone is a dance of three. Up to and including personalties that fluctuate.
I’m no Luke Luloosh, I have never been arrogant enough to ‘announce my authority’ by dancing with the whole bar.
Framing is a some of it’s parts. The Athletic had an article about Wilson Contreras improving his framing, the heart if it was?
Suck up to the umps more?
Be less yourself?
Like me!
– quintify all that.
A Catcher may be able to balance all 3 on any given day, but the reality is, he is as also dependent on things out if his control.
I’m pretty sure Mike Piazza would be valuable even today (and what little there is, he was, by some measures, a decent ‘framer’)
So framing is important and is maybe the least he has control of on some days, or more. A catcher also calls the game, throws, blocks and actually bats.
framing is everything…easily quantifiable. when you have 1000’s of data points the outliers mean nothing statistically.
Except every pitcher and every batter has to figure out the home plate umpire’s strike zone every game.
Wonder how much a blocked prospect like Carson Kelly would be worth to a team like the Red Sox.
Here is a question for the few on here who are still in denial about framing stats. If you don’t believe the framing metrics, then how can you believe the k zone? How can you go to robo umps and believe the electronic k zone, but you don’t believe that same k zone when a catcher gets strikes called balls repeatedly and balls called strikes.
Its all easily quantifiable, and you cant have it both ways. If you believe in the k zone, then you have to believe the framing metrics are correct.
Is it good framing or bad umpiring?
Keep an eye out on Tampa’s Ronaldo Hernandez. Irrelevant this year but he is going to be great for many years once he shows up in the majors late 2019 or sometime in 2020.